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French Presidential Election Thread
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balybary Offline
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Post: #201
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
More and more "middle class" people live in gated community in France.
Before the 1990s it didn't exist except few exceptions for the upper class, mostly in Paris.

Gated Communities in Toulouse
Quote:Enclosed residential spaces started in France in the 1990s, among other places around Toulouse. This paper analyzes the success of these gated communities. Real estate agents exploit patrimonial and security factors, making commercially attractive offers. In a historical perspective, this frequently criticized process of enclosure and public space privatization is in fact new and follows the logic of exclusive appropriation by private property.
03-09-2017 07:17 AM
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nomadbrah Offline
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Post: #202
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
The fact that Fillon is still in this seems to be that the center-right based must have moved further to the right than previous years. If not, Fillon would have been gone and they would have gone with someone else. It might mean there are more potential Le Pen votes there right?
03-09-2017 12:39 PM
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MikeMcLaren Offline
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Post: #203
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
You are going off topic. If you have 5 million euro, you can buy a secure house. Now back to the French Presidential Election..


(03-09-2017 07:17 AM)balybary Wrote:  More and more "middle class" people live in gated community in France.
Before the 1990s it didn't exist except few exceptions for the upper class, mostly in Paris.

Gated Communities in Toulouse
Quote:Enclosed residential spaces started in France in the 1990s, among other places around Toulouse. This paper analyzes the success of these gated communities. Real estate agents exploit patrimonial and security factors, making commercially attractive offers. In a historical perspective, this frequently criticized process of enclosure and public space privatization is in fact new and follows the logic of exclusive appropriation by private property.
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2017 12:43 PM by MikeMcLaren.)
03-09-2017 12:39 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #204
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-09-2017 12:39 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  The fact that Fillon is still in this seems to be that the center-right based must have moved further to the right than previous years. If not, Fillon would have been gone and they would have gone with someone else. It might mean there are more potential Le Pen votes there right?

Yes, that's why Le Pen's best chance is if she faces Hamon or Macron in the second round. Fillon would capture half the right, and most of the left (a la 2002)

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03-09-2017 05:20 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #205
RE: French Presidential Election Thread

Yes - very good - not yet enough, but next time around a few thousand more would have been killed and maybe tens of thousands robbed and raped - then that support may be at 45% with men reaching 70% of all locals.

France will be polarized like the rest of Europe. I expect roughly 40% of the remaining population within the next 10-20 years to become downright radical - some will even prefer Hitler before they prefer an Islamic shithole.
03-10-2017 05:08 PM
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Snowflake Offline
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Post: #206
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
Shots fired in Lyon: https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status...1278302209

Figured it might be relevant for the thread.

Inb4 buddhist terror

EDIT: seems like nothing is really going on according to this twitter. Can't find any related news elsewhere. We'll see
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2017 11:38 AM by Snowflake.)
03-12-2017 11:32 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #207
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
New poll has Fillon ahead of Macron in 2nd place, this looks like the real picture, vs the fake polls giving Macron ahead of even MLP. Hoping that the Macron bubble continues to deflate.

[Image: presidentielle-2017---nouvelle-mesure-fi...--4017.jpg]

It looks like the previous odds were indeed gamed against Fillon, he's now at 4 to 1, up from as low as 15 to 1 a couple of weeks ago...

MLP is at 2 to 1, Macron now almost even. As a pure bet, Melenchon looks good at 125 to 1, if he can get Hamon to back him those odds would shoot up to 3 or 4 to 1...

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03-12-2017 12:25 PM
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britchard Offline
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Post: #208
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
Laying (betting against) Macron wouldn't be a bad bet then. Especially if there seems to be a general mood of Fillon resurgence.
03-12-2017 03:23 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #209
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
I'm not sure now is the right time to bet. Fillon is going to be questioned on the 15th of March, and that should affect the odds.

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(This post was last modified: 03-12-2017 03:45 PM by Transsimian.)
03-12-2017 03:45 PM
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lightning_jack Offline
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Post: #210
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
I notice betfair now have Fillon at 19:1 to win the first round
03-13-2017 11:10 AM
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balybary Offline
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Post: #211
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
It seems that breibart in french will not be ready before the next presidential election (I didn't find info on a possible date of beginning).
03-13-2017 01:08 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #212
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-13-2017 11:10 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  I notice betfair now have Fillon at 19:1 to win the first round

Banana It was 25 before I got there. Banana

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03-13-2017 01:09 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #213
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
I don't think that Le Pen will be able to become president this time around.

But after a few more trucks and attacks of peace we might get there as well and the French will realize that flowers are not more powerful than guns:



(This post was last modified: 03-13-2017 02:51 PM by Simeon_Strangelight.)
03-13-2017 02:51 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #214
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-13-2017 02:51 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  I don't think that Le Pen will be able to become president this time around.

I don't see her beating Fillon, as the lefties would vote for anyone but her.

She has a better chance against Macron as she'd get most of Fillon's support(especially if he is robbed by the establishment), and the little merchant banker won't get much more socialist support than Fillon would.

That, and the boy wonder would struggle in a one-on-one debate against someone as sharp as Marine.

Marine is overpriced at 4/1 but if someone offered me odds of 12/1, I'd bet on her.


BTW, you know he just promised he'd pick a female primeminister... whoever called him the French Trudeau, they are more and more right.

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(This post was last modified: 03-13-2017 03:37 PM by Transsimian.)
03-13-2017 03:33 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #215
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
< I expect the polls to be wrong for the first tour of course - she will win the first round, but can she reach 50%?
03-13-2017 03:48 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #216
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-13-2017 03:48 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  < I expect the polls to be wrong for the first tour of course - she will win the first round, but can she reach 50%?

She won't reach 50% of eligible voters, but she might win 50% of the vote as turnout is a factor.

Saving your country is a lot more motivating then being shamed into voting against someone.

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03-13-2017 03:52 PM
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HighSpeed_LowDrag Offline
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Post: #217
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
I think Fillon is pretty much toast at this point.


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03-14-2017 10:48 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #218
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
I don't think he will quit, short of his being arrested, but this is going to lead to more rats leaving his ship and more bad coverage. They really want him out, his case has been sped through the courts, while there are dozens of huge financial frauds that get pushed aside for years on end.

Macron has far bigger financial issues, He's earned over 3 million euros in his short stint at the Rothschild bank but only declared 100,000E in assets. He's also received a half million euro loan from a gay globalist oligarch sugar daddy when he was in his 20s to buy fancy digs in Paris. Nothing in the media, and no investigation. They've instead had some chatter about a business trip accounting non-issue just to make it look like they're being even-handed.

It would be awesome if Fillon withdrew and run for le Pen, that would be the biggest FU to the establishment, but I doubt this will happen.

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(This post was last modified: 03-14-2017 11:34 AM by 911.)
03-14-2017 11:30 AM
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Latan Offline
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Post: #219
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
A bit like in Italy, French people think almost all politicians are corrupt.
So when we read they took money from taxes or made fake jobs for their friends/families, we're not shocked, more like "Yes, and all the others do the same".
Sorry, but Fillon won't lose much voters after such a "scandal".

Hon hon hon, Baguette.
(This post was last modified: 03-14-2017 12:46 PM by Latan.)
03-14-2017 12:43 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #220
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-14-2017 11:30 AM)911 Wrote:  I don't think he will quit, short of his being arrested, but this is going to lead to more rats leaving his ship and more bad coverage. They really want him out, his case has been sped through the courts, while there are dozens of huge financial frauds that get pushed aside for years on end.
It was headline news that a guy lent him two suits.

That's how biased the news is.

By the way, the betting markets are being rather calm over this news. I managed to get an 1/8 bet in, but now the odds have settled at 1/7.2.

I expected they'd hit 10 at the least.Angry

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03-14-2017 01:16 PM
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Snowflake Offline
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Post: #221
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-14-2017 12:43 PM)Latan Wrote:  A bit like in Italy, French people think almost all politicians are corrupt.
So when we read they took money from taxes or made fake jobs for their friends/families, we're not shocked, more like "Yes, and all the others do the same".
Sorry, but Fillon won't lose much voters after such a "scandal".

Hon hon hon, Baguette.

Italians have a good reason to believe all their politicians are corrupt. (Hint: because it is mostly true)
03-14-2017 01:25 PM
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Libertas Offline
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Post: #222
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
How's Fillon doing? Is he going out doing Trump style rallies with all his supporters? It's important that he gets through to the second round.

I'd like to write a Stumped analysis of this election. I'd need to know more about the fundamentals though.

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03-14-2017 08:25 PM
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budoslavic Offline
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Post: #223
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
(03-14-2017 08:25 PM)Libertas Wrote:  How's Fillon doing? Is he going out doing Trump style rallies with all his supporters? It's important that he gets through to the second round.

I'd like to write a Stumped analysis of this election. I'd need to know more about the fundamentals though.

Take a look at French Election 2017. Not sure if it will help.

Meanwhile...

(This post was last modified: 03-15-2017 06:40 PM by budoslavic.)
03-15-2017 06:38 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #224
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
Netherland's Wilders dropped in the polls and his party reached some 13%.

Fuck that - Europe is gone. The enemy has trillions at their disposal and there is no shortage of fools.

You can vote, but there are too many brainwashed idiots out there. Even if Le Pen wins, which is very very unlikely - then she probably won't be able to change much.
03-15-2017 06:52 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #225
RE: French Presidential Election Thread
Le Pen's odds right now are higher than Trump's pre-elections odds, around 11/4, so more like somewhat unlikely than "very very unlikely".

I think the most likely scenario at this point is that Macron continues to get propped, Fillon unfairly targeted, which will lead to a lot of his voters breaking for her, so you never know. If she wins, she will have control over immigration, and she will be able to take on Brussels along with Grillo and possibly May. France is smaller and more centralized than the US, so the deep state there is not as daunting as it is in the US.

I wouldn't get too caught up on the Dutch elections, it's a country with many idiosyncrasies, and Gert Wilders is kind of a shifty dude who lacks gravitas, Le Pen on the other hand has been able to build a wider appeal and become more presidential while still being anti-establishment.

Here's Red Ice's coverage of Dutch elections (kind of long, but the first hour alone gives you a good picture). Henrik Palmgren, the Swedish host, has a great combination of being fairly cerebral and measured while having solid ideological grounding:

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(This post was last modified: 03-15-2017 08:38 PM by 911.)
03-15-2017 08:33 PM
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