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Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
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Hell_Is_Like_Newark Offline
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Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
If you are unfamiliar with Peter Zeihan:

He is a geopolitical strategist. I have been following him for a few years and have found him to offer insightful & sobering analysis. If you got an hour or so to spare, he makes a good listen. In particular, watch the section where he shows the capital flows out of China into the USA (which is a major reason the dollar has remained strong).


Zeihan did a presentation last month:

https://vimeo.com/215078563




05-01-2017 02:53 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
Good stuff. I just randomly clicked before 10 minutes and am fascinated already, because of his Bretton Woods references. Recall that I made a post about the Triffin Dilemma a while back, totally apropos. I'll check it out in its entirety tonight, a bit later.
05-03-2017 01:36 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
Ok, now I've seen two of his presentations, mostly the same stuff, the other was a 2016 presentation where at the end he interesting says the debt doesn't matter. So I'm guessing that's how he is answering the Triffin Dilemma question. But Martin Armstrong uses history to suggest that the outside crumbles in on the world reserve currency, which is an interesting point because Zeihan basically suggests the same thing is happening in the near War period coming up. Yet he maintains the US is self sufficient and can say "so what who cares" --- which I think is actually largely true.

What he doesn't really address, and perhaps this is due to always talking about pure survival and that he's in front of investor types or those of means frequently, is the social erosion of the USA while materialism reigns. No one denies that the US will continue to be a major player, but I think he's missing something on the meaningful and cultural part of social or cultural fabric, which is really disjointed at this point.

I was thinking a possible solution to this is actually strong right wing rule to solve that type of problem precisely because the nation is so self sufficient.

As an aside, the cultural and transparency aspect of America with all that wealth continuing also creates problems, such as increasing wealth disparity. I don't see that stopping, either.

I think the part he lacks is the common man point of view that rejected globalist idea, something we can and will do, but it neglects that this common man is still WAY far away from elites who will continue to increase their wealth. He says consumption is why Y-millenial is great but where the F is he claiming these youngsters are even getting the money from? I don't get that either. That's all more BS debt. Has to be.
05-05-2017 02:35 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
I wonder why Zeihan doesn't take US internal, potential problems as much of a threat to it as a nation moving ahead. It's not like we haven't been a materialist superpower for a long time now. Perhaps it's because:

* hese are made for global thinkers and investor types (upper classes/elitists wondering what to do with money)
* It requires a broad and long, in depth understanding of government, history, progressivism, etc.
* He is a libertarian who believes as most modern people in the 1st world do, that materialism rules all and a people or its path ahead are not that relevant

America is a nation increasing in wealth disparity and I don't buy the demographic benefit we have, given the debt levels, which will undoubtedly increase:

How do "millenials" keep consuming if they are in school debt and have bad to decent, if any, jobs? And if the debt doesn't mean anything, how did the 2008 collapse or near disaster happen? Why wouldn't it happen again if debt goes to 30-40 trillion?

Trump seems to be the only non-globalist candidate, and we don't hear that from many other leaders, yet Zeihan thinks all of a sudden we'll be isolationist on many fronts. Hmm.

China and Russia are homogeneous populations pulling all in the same direction. The USA is not one of these.

Materialism doesn't seem to have given the USA a purpose or unified strength, things have gotten worse from a nation state point of view over time. I think this is where Zeihan is missing many crucial "details."
05-09-2017 12:06 PM
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Dan Woolf Away
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
(05-09-2017 12:06 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  China and Russia are homogeneous populations

Yeah, no.
05-09-2017 02:02 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
Bumping this as he has put out a few new presentations and predictions, interesting. I see that he is an old Stratfor guy, which is also amusing. I think realvision is the most recent interview he did, but there are interesting .pdf you can find on the net from January 2018 that had some solid insight. I thought the same thing as I wrote above about him though, when I saw the recent interview; the social and institutional problems and doubt in the US are huge issues that he doesn't treat at all --- but most here realize they can't truly be ignored. You can check it out, but he's hugely bearish on China and Germany. Bullish on France, Argentina, and Turkey.

Get your passport ready!
12-01-2018 10:24 AM
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While not flawless, Peter Zeihan is still great
Everyone on this forum should watch his videos on youtube. They are fantastic.

Also, his 2 books are excellent as well. Russia's, Saudi Arabia's, and Iran's behavior make complete sense afterwards, as well as China's behavior in the south china sea.

His first book, "The Accidental Superpower", published in 2014, predicted the rise of something like Donald Trump, since internationally (not domestically), Trump represents one thing: the renegotiation and possible complete collapse of Bretton Woods. Ultimately, that's why so many of the world's leaders are freaking out about him.

(05-09-2017 12:06 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I wonder why Zeihan doesn't take US internal, potential problems as much of a threat to it as a nation moving ahead. It's not like we haven't been a materialist superpower for a long time now. Perhaps it's because:

* hese are made for global thinkers and investor types (upper classes/elitists wondering what to do with money)
* It requires a broad and long, in depth understanding of government, history, progressivism, etc.
* He is a libertarian who believes as most modern people in the 1st world do, that materialism rules all and a people or its path ahead are not that relevant

America is a nation increasing in wealth disparity and I don't buy the demographic benefit we have, given the debt levels, which will undoubtedly increase:

How do "millenials" keep consuming if they are in school debt and have bad to decent, if any, jobs? And if the debt doesn't mean anything, how did the 2008 collapse or near disaster happen? Why wouldn't it happen again if debt goes to 30-40 trillion?

Trump seems to be the only non-globalist candidate, and we don't hear that from many other leaders, yet Zeihan thinks all of a sudden we'll be isolationist on many fronts. Hmm.

China and Russia are homogeneous populations pulling all in the same direction. The USA is not one of these.

Materialism doesn't seem to have given the USA a purpose or unified strength, things have gotten worse from a nation state point of view over time. I think this is where Zeihan is missing many crucial "details."

Peter Zeihan makes his money by giving highly paid speeches to industrial associations, oil firms, and investment firms. Even if he is aware of these issues, there are certain questions that he has to avoid if he wishes to continue making a living.

He is still very useful to understanding how the world works, especially if you combine it with what we discuss here.

As well, even if you disagree with him, he is a very good way of showing people above the age of 50 how the later 1/2 of Generation X (born 1970 to 1980 - my 1/2 generation) thinks.
12-03-2018 08:38 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: Peter Zeihan - War in Asia and American hegemony
Yes, that's why I bumped.

Get your passport ready!
12-05-2018 01:09 AM
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