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Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
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gework Offline
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Post: #1
Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
What signals, directions, markets etc. are you focusing on in the search for your fabled 1000X gain?

If we go back ten years, the directions and markets that identifying that would have made you the most money were picking future tech giants, retail giants, travel giants, consumer electronic giants. And here's a sector breakdown (UK):

[Image: uk-sectors-that-perform-the-best_1000-po...-10yrs.png]

As for the directions, to take tech giants, some directions were the growth of the data economy, the value of having masses of information easily available, the multiplication of productivity via automation and digitalisation.

I'm not so sure what signals would have been around at the time that would have led you to identify those directions and markets, as I wasn't paying attention at the time. But I would guess some would be the creation of online communities for the earliest days of the internet, the emergence of online sales pre-eCommerce and early primitive meta search engines.

Transposing this over to crypto I see the following signals:

1) The need for an easy, relatively secure, high transaction volume, low/no free way of dealing with digital assets. When it comes to ETH ($100B cap) this isn't there. You need to buy a $100 hardware wallet and make appropriate backup routes and use it in conjunction with MyEtherWallet which is clunky; or wake up have your CPU go nuts to plugh through blocks for 20 minutes before you can make a transaction and save an increasing amount of data on your computer just to do so. This is pre-AltaVista level stuff.

2) The desire to decentralise biased state allies like Google, Slavebook, feeBay, Amazon, Twitter, PayPal etc.

3) The desire for tokens, marketplaces and platforms for gamers

These seem to be the main signals that are coming up that are shaping the future direction. Does anyone see anything else or something different?

The ultimate market I see developing is:

1) A coin that is relatively stable in price and immune from going up in price due to FOMO, which could be used as a currency (deflationary currencey causes depression)

2) A decentralised financial services platform, which can handle large amounts of transactions with no/lo fees and have infrastructure that makes it easy for noobs

3) Decentralised crypto exchange

4) Decentralised social app, like status

5) Decentralised marketplace with voluntary buyer protection services like insurance

6) Something like a decentralised Minecraft and/or community development engine and resources

7) Decentralised Paetron, Youtube, file sharing, file storage, search engine, VPN...

There are a lot of other areas that people are trying to use crypto to provide industry infrastructure to cut out middle men and reduce certain costs, like real estate, cannabis finance, gold storage etc. But I see these as highly speculative as it will be very difficult to embed them in non-tech industries. I think such things will be much further down the line and could only be viable once people are conversant in the above.

How do you see the landscape in 10 years? And how does that influence your investments now?

For the short-term future, I think ETH is a fairly good safe bet if you want to keep yourself in coin without large risks, because ETH is the de facto decentralised financial services platform and to move any of those tokens around you need ETH. All exchanges that handle ETH and ERC20 tokens need to have a constant supply of ETH to cover the cost of GAS for withdrawals. Anyone with ETH tokens needs ETH on hand to move them around. And all of the now 100s of projects using ETH as a backbone need ETH to operate, as well as all of their largely hypothetical users.

But ETH as it is, is not scalable. So I am keen on serious projects that can address ETH's flaws and become the de facto decentralised financial services platform. These are the prospective 100X+ gains that have a chance of holding. As well of them there will be 100X+ coins that have no chance of holding like RaiBlocks that you'll want to sell post FOMO.

I don't see any reason for Bitcoin to stay around. It has some adoption for real-world uses, but that is mostly people breaking into massive gains they've made because they have no fiat. BTC is largely a speculative bubble, while ETH is a speculative bubble propped up by 100s of other speculative bubbles. If one of those ETH sub-bubbles is fundamentally linked to real wealth, it props ETH up.
01-25-2018 05:19 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
It's all about EOS IMO, I'm balls deep in that shit.
01-25-2018 08:36 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
What is with people creating threads that are just a thin-veiled hit piece on certain coins or to prop up their own favorite coins. Maciano was great at this, and Samseau tried as well.

"The need for an easy, relatively secure, high transaction volume, low/no free way of dealing with digital assets. When it comes to ETH ($100B cap) this isn't there. You need to buy a $100 hardware wallet and make appropriate backup routes and use it in conjunction with MyEtherWallet which is clunky; or wake up have your CPU go nuts to plugh through blocks for 20 minutes before you can make a transaction and save an increasing amount of data on your computer just to do so. This is pre-AltaVista level stuff."

Have you even used Ethereum? Or MyEtherWallet? MEW is actually super user-friendly.

"But ETH as it is, is not scalable. So I am keen on serious projects that can address ETH's flaws and become the de facto decentralised financial services platform. These are the prospective 100X+ gains that have a chance of holding. As well of them there will be 100X+ coins that have no chance of holding like RaiBlocks that you'll want to sell post FOMO."

News flash: no project is scalable yet. It's all a big gamble. But Ethereum does have the best chance. 2018 will a big year for this and privacy.

The impression I get from a lot of forum members is that they're a bit salty they lost out on 100x gains the past year and are now rationalizing however they can in the hopes they'll find another 100x coin.

What project has the best shot of scaling: Ethereum.

What's going to be Ethereum 2.0? Ethereum.

"How do you see the landscape in 10 years? And how does that influence your investments now?"

In 10 years I see Ethereum dominating the crypto market the way Google, FB, and Amazon dominate their respective markets. Solely because the key variable to look at is the person at the top running the entire game. And Buterin is on par with Bezos, Zuckerberg and Page/Brin.

In terms of my investments: I hold most of my stuff in Ethereum. I plan to hold for the foreseeable future and reap some sweet, sweet PoS dividends.

However will I hold for 10 years?

Maybe, maybe not. We're rapidly entirely the stage where the average person is investing in this stuff. I started looking into the next "next thing" a few months ago. I already have a few things in mind. So most likely I'll keep 60-80% Ethereum and use the rest as investment money for other non-crypto related stuff.

Not happening. - redbeard in regards to ETH flippening BTC
01-26-2018 10:03 AM
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Post: #4
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
ETH is great to hold because it's stable and it goes up a lot.

USING ETH for anything is a pain. Picking gas prices is a pain. The nonsensical 32 bit addresses are a pain. The high transaction costs are a pain. Writing smart contracts is a pain. Etc. etc.

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01-26-2018 01:07 PM
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Post: #5
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 10:03 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  What is with people creating threads that are just a thin-veiled hit piece on certain coins or to prop up their own favorite coins. Maciano was great at this, and Samseau tried as well.

"The need for an easy, relatively secure, high transaction volume, low/no free way of dealing with digital assets. When it comes to ETH ($100B cap) this isn't there. You need to buy a $100 hardware wallet and make appropriate backup routes and use it in conjunction with MyEtherWallet which is clunky; or wake up have your CPU go nuts to plugh through blocks for 20 minutes before you can make a transaction and save an increasing amount of data on your computer just to do so. This is pre-AltaVista level stuff."

Have you even used Ethereum? Or MyEtherWallet? MEW is actually super user-friendly.

"But ETH as it is, is not scalable. So I am keen on serious projects that can address ETH's flaws and become the de facto decentralised financial services platform. These are the prospective 100X+ gains that have a chance of holding. As well of them there will be 100X+ coins that have no chance of holding like RaiBlocks that you'll want to sell post FOMO."

News flash: no project is scalable yet. It's all a big gamble. But Ethereum does have the best chance. 2018 will a big year for this and privacy.

The impression I get from a lot of forum members is that they're a bit salty they lost out on 100x gains the past year and are now rationalizing however they can in the hopes they'll find another 100x coin.

What project has the best shot of scaling: Ethereum.

What's going to be Ethereum 2.0? Ethereum.

"How do you see the landscape in 10 years? And how does that influence your investments now?"

In 10 years I see Ethereum dominating the crypto market the way Google, FB, and Amazon dominate their respective markets. Solely because the key variable to look at is the person at the top running the entire game. And Buterin is on par with Bezos, Zuckerberg and Page/Brin.

In terms of my investments: I hold most of my stuff in Ethereum. I plan to hold for the foreseeable future and reap some sweet, sweet PoS dividends.

However will I hold for 10 years?

Maybe, maybe not. We're rapidly entirely the stage where the average person is investing in this stuff. I started looking into the next "next thing" a few months ago. I already have a few things in mind. So most likely I'll keep 60-80% Ethereum and use the rest as investment money for other non-crypto related stuff.

I like Ethereum too, but there's no point in being so sure about it and predicting it as the future of the world.

Why do you think there will be no Ethereum 2.0? Neo supports more commonly used programming languages like C# and Java in comparison to Ethereum's Solidity, so more people can use it to build decentralised apps on it.

Even if you think it is the future, it's not a bad idea to consider hedging your investment in Ethereum with possible Ethereum 2.0's like Neo.

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01-26-2018 01:16 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
Why am I so sure about Ethereum?

Because I've seen how technologies play out. It doesn't matter so much if you have superior tech. What matters is who is charge. The reason for this is that the top genius can overcome any technological advantage you have in short time and outcompete you in other areas. This is speaking from personal experience, having worked on superior technology, only to have a genius catch up and overtake my work.

The only exceptions are if you have unassailable patents (DowDuPont are a good example, since if I recall they have patents on Teflon, Kevlar and other materials) or so much momentum/infrastructure behind you it's impossible for competitors to catch up (why Google's challenger to Facebook failed).

Show me that the guys behind NEO, EOS or any other project are genuinely smarter than Vitalik and I'll strongly consider diverting some of my funds.

Or show me what unassailable patents/tech or momentum these other projects have.

Right now what I'm seeing is an autistic freak of a genius (Vitalik) in charge of the most used blockchain (by # of transactions per day), with a massive amount of momentum (EEA with 400+ companies), and infrastructure being built out faster than any other project (see everything Joe Lubin and Consensys is working on, not to mention PoS and sharding planned out and being developed).

I find the advantages Ethereum has to be unsurmountable. I'm open to changing my mind, but so far I haven't seen a single project that comes close.

Not happening. - redbeard in regards to ETH flippening BTC
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2018 02:16 PM by Genghis Khan.)
01-26-2018 02:11 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-25-2018 05:19 PM)gework Wrote:  there will be 100X+ coins that have no chance of holding like RaiBlocks that you'll want to sell post FOMO.

$2B in XRB marketcap disagrees with you.

Care to elaborate on why Raiblocks is not a contender to become the standard digital currency?
01-26-2018 02:44 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 02:44 PM)Courage Reborn Wrote:  
(01-25-2018 05:19 PM)gework Wrote:  there will be 100X+ coins that have no chance of holding like RaiBlocks that you'll want to sell post FOMO.

$2B in XRB marketcap disagrees with you.

Care to elaborate on why Raiblocks is not a contender to become the standard digital currency?

Well, the biggest argument is that when it reaches the "angry zealot demanding to know why his chosen currency isn't the best" phase, the growth is usually over and the smart money has moved on. This goes double when the zealot is pointing to the fact that the coin is really friggin expensive. Same thing with Vechain if you ask me, but we'll see on that since that one's google trends looks really nice.

For me, I think everything in Cryptocurrency is inflated by a massive, worldwide speculative frenzy, with people throwing money at things they barely understand, knowing that they'll be able to turn around and sell it to somebody else who doesn't really understand it either. And this is great! It's a fantastic money-making opportunity, and people who make jokes about "greater fool" theory instead participating in what's a once in a lifetime opportunity are idiots. But I don't know if it'll continue for 10 years, and my time horizons aren't that long. I tend to think in terms of "A week or two".

My one exception to this is NEO, which I think will be 600 to 1000 dollars by the end of the year if the market continues. ETH might easily hit 2k as well, but we'll see. I'm not sure it really matters which one you pick, since crypto prices tend to move in unison. So as long as you're not picking absolute junk, a rising tide will lift all boats, including your chosen coin.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2018 04:05 PM by Faust.)
01-26-2018 04:04 PM
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Post: #9
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 02:11 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  Why am I so sure about Ethereum?

Because I've seen how technologies play out. It doesn't matter so much if you have superior tech. What matters is who is charge. The reason for this is that the top genius can overcome any technological advantage you have in short time and outcompete you in other areas. This is speaking from personal experience, having worked on superior technology, only to have a genius catch up and overtake my work.

The only exceptions are if you have unassailable patents (DowDuPont are a good example, since if I recall they have patents on Teflon, Kevlar and other materials) or so much momentum/infrastructure behind you it's impossible for competitors to catch up (why Google's challenger to Facebook failed).

Show me that the guys behind NEO, EOS or any other project are genuinely smarter than Vitalik and I'll strongly consider diverting some of my funds.

Or show me what unassailable patents/tech or momentum these other projects have.

Right now what I'm seeing is an autistic freak of a genius (Vitalik) in charge of the most used blockchain (by # of transactions per day), with a massive amount of momentum (EEA with 400+ companies), and infrastructure being built out faster than any other project (see everything Joe Lubin and Consensys is working on, not to mention PoS and sharding planned out and being developed).

I find the advantages Ethereum has to be unsurmountable. I'm open to changing my mind, but so far I haven't seen a single project that comes close.

There's so much hype and fanaticism in this post the best way to point it out would be to creatively reword all of it replacing the word Ethereum with Barcelona FC and Vitalik with Leo Messi.

It sounds like someone trying to prove to others why their team is going to win the Champions League, Superbowl, World Cup or whatever.

However, buried beneath the hype is a lot of good reasoning based on your business experience and watching other businesses.

I was just trying to point out that its better to leave the hyperbole out, not because it comes off as shilling, but because it's dangerous to be too tribal and emotional in your thinking.

"Especially Roosh offers really good perspectives. But like MW said, at the end of the day, is he one of us?"

- Reciproke, posted on the Roosh V Forum.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2018 04:19 PM by RedPillUK.)
01-26-2018 04:17 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 04:04 PM)Faust Wrote:  Well, the biggest argument is that when it reaches the "angry zealot demanding to know why his chosen currency isn't the best" phase, the growth is usually over and the smart money has moved on.

We're talking about future long term predictions here.
01-26-2018 04:17 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 02:11 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  Show me that the guys behind NEO, EOS or any other project are genuinely smarter than Vitalik and I'll strongly consider diverting some of my funds.

Better watch out, these are some of the top boys at EOS:

[Image: AAEAAQAAAAAAAAz5AAAAJDA2ODZiZGJhLWZmNDYt...OGMzOA.jpg]

(01-26-2018 02:44 PM)Courage Reborn Wrote:  $2B in XRB marketcap disagrees with you.

Care to elaborate on why Raiblocks is not a contender to become the standard digital currency?

$2B - down $2.5B, very thin site; it has some good features, but at the end of the day no one will use deflationary money when there is a relatively stable alternative. The reason I like ETH, as a safer bet to store value, is because it's not really selling itself as money. But ignoring the deflationary angle, I don't think that team has what it take to push itself out.
01-26-2018 04:24 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 04:24 PM)gework Wrote:  $2B - down $2.5B, very thin site; it has some good features, but at the end of the day no one will use deflationary money when there is a relatively stable alternative. The reason I like ETH, as a safer bet to store value, is because it's not really selling itself as money. But ignoring the deflationary angle, I don't think that team has what it take to push itself out.

Every crypto is currently down from it's ATH. This is not unique to XRB.

What does very thin site mean?

What is the stable alternative you allude to? ETH? Depending on which engineer you ask, the team behind Etherium is facing a slew of insurmountable scaling problems. We're currently plagued with proof-of-work, slow tx times, gas wars, crypto kitties crashing the network, and other show stoppers. The Raiblocks team will be facing it's own growing pains soon. But is currently facing nothing like what Etherium has to overcome now.
01-26-2018 04:42 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
You hardly pull off a 100x gain with a Coin, which is already listed on the major exchanges. The money is made nowadays when you buy in into Private Sale, Pre-Sale or at least Crowdsale.

Take a look at CPChain for example. The thing sold out in Private Sale, the hype is slowing building up. This is a good chance for a 10x or 100x.

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Quote:CPChain is a new distributed infrastructure for next generation Internet of Things (IoT). CPChain intends to build a fundamental data platform for IoT system in combination with distributed storage, encryption computation and blockchain technologies, providing the whole process solution from data acquisition, storage, sharing to application. CPChain is a promising solution to a series of challenges of current “chimney architecture” of IoT systems, reducing connectivity cost of devices, protecting data privacy and maximizing the value of IoT data.

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01-26-2018 05:55 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-26-2018 04:17 PM)RedPillUK Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 02:11 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  Why am I so sure about Ethereum?

Because I've seen how technologies play out. It doesn't matter so much if you have superior tech. What matters is who is charge. The reason for this is that the top genius can overcome any technological advantage you have in short time and outcompete you in other areas. This is speaking from personal experience, having worked on superior technology, only to have a genius catch up and overtake my work.

The only exceptions are if you have unassailable patents (DowDuPont are a good example, since if I recall they have patents on Teflon, Kevlar and other materials) or so much momentum/infrastructure behind you it's impossible for competitors to catch up (why Google's challenger to Facebook failed).

Show me that the guys behind NEO, EOS or any other project are genuinely smarter than Vitalik and I'll strongly consider diverting some of my funds.

Or show me what unassailable patents/tech or momentum these other projects have.

Right now what I'm seeing is an autistic freak of a genius (Vitalik) in charge of the most used blockchain (by # of transactions per day), with a massive amount of momentum (EEA with 400+ companies), and infrastructure being built out faster than any other project (see everything Joe Lubin and Consensys is working on, not to mention PoS and sharding planned out and being developed).

I find the advantages Ethereum has to be unsurmountable. I'm open to changing my mind, but so far I haven't seen a single project that comes close.

There's so much hype and fanaticism in this post the best way to point it out would be to creatively reword all of it replacing the word Ethereum with Barcelona FC and Vitalik with Leo Messi.

It sounds like someone trying to prove to others why their team is going to win the Champions League, Superbowl, World Cup or whatever.

However, buried beneath the hype is a lot of good reasoning based on your business experience and watching other businesses.

I was just trying to point out that its better to leave the hyperbole out, not because it comes off as shilling, but because it's dangerous to be too tribal and emotional in your thinking.

If ETH's founder is such a genius, why hasn't ETH been used for any practical applications yet? A currency that buys nothing, cool genius bro.

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01-28-2018 01:43 PM
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Post: #15
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
Crypto been around since the 1930's you just didn't know it.

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03-11-2019 07:24 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
2019 is going to be a wild ride. I think 2020 is where we'll really hit our stride with crypto though, and enter into a bull market.
03-12-2019 01:55 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
There won't be any growth until we see wide-scale real world adoption. This kind of adoption needs technology that works. So far, no crypto is production ready. The first cryptos might become production ready be the end of 2020. From there on, companies need at least 1 year to create a product on top of that currency.

So my tip: next bull run earliest by 2020, more likely 2021. The bull run will be different than previous ones as only successful cryptos (technology + partnerships) will rise in value.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2019 07:00 PM by semibaron.)
03-12-2019 06:59 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
China already adopted digital money, they skipped over credit cards and went straight for centralised WeChat and Alipay. For the west we might see something like XRP or Applepay being adopted that can be monitored by the state better with less fees. Governments are likelier to adopt something like XRP over decentralized BTC and ETH, for obvious reasons. In the end all the legit coins like BTC/ETH/XMR will be relegated to parallel currency status and will continue to appreciate in value relative to fiat adopted currency.
03-12-2019 10:47 PM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
When moon?
03-13-2019 10:30 AM
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Post: #20
RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
I'm very confident of long term growth of certain cryptos - XRP is my biggest holding because it can (and is seemingly rather close to) solving a real world problem. I'll be sitting on the majority of my stack for 5 years minimum though. I can see BTC (despite all it's issues) being increasingly regarded as digital gold. Failure of one or more main global fiat currencies will hasten this change. IMO we'll chop sideways most of this year (I'll accumulate on the way) prior to big moves in 2020/2021.
03-13-2019 11:35 AM
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RE: Cryptocurrency: Future Growth
(01-25-2018 05:19 PM)gework Wrote:  I don't see any reason for Bitcoin to stay around. It has some adoption for real-world uses, but that is mostly people breaking into massive gains they've made because they have no fiat. BTC is largely a speculative bubble, while ETH is a speculative bubble propped up by 100s of other speculative bubbles. If one of those ETH sub-bubbles is fundamentally linked to real wealth, it props ETH up.

Bitcoin is still the best crypto at being sound money. Those extra years of early history which let it spread organically before the successive waves of altcoin fads is of substantial value. Having resisted several rounds of government backed social engineering attacks to replace it with "improved" versions, is of tremendous value. When the shitgnomes finally got the balls to make "mass adoption friendly" hardforks, the hardforks flailed and continue to flail.

As far as ethereum goes, there are a poverty of full nodes. It might be peer to peer, but only for a trivially small number of peers. To stand up a high performance bitcoin node that will be good for a number of years you can get by with a 1TB SSD, 2 GB of RAM, and just about any recent low end processor. The "embedded" versions of the AMD "bobcat" architecture clocked at 1ghz work very well in this role.

Ethereum's an excellent thing for the Silicon Valley dork startup crowd to extract value from chumps. It however offers little to nothing for anyone interested in crypto that advances actual human freedom.

(03-12-2019 06:59 PM)semibaron Wrote:  There won't be any growth until we see wide-scale real world adoption. This kind of adoption needs technology that works. So far, no crypto is production ready. The first cryptos might become production ready be the end of 2020. From there on, companies need at least 1 year to create a product on top of that currency.

So my tip: next bull run earliest by 2020, more likely 2021. The bull run will be different than previous ones as only successful cryptos (technology + partnerships) will rise in value.

Adoption, especially mass adoption is over rated. Crypto has more to gain by excising "mass culture" and the Britney Spears/Walmart crowd than by embracing it. For a historical example see DogeCoin. Make Elitism Great Again!
03-13-2019 12:09 PM
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