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Making Money Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
I bought a little bit of SPY puts. Will buy more later.
09-13-2018 11:17 AM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Today is roll-over day for the Emini Futures contracts where the Pro/Institutional S&P Emini Futures Traders switch from the last ESU2018 Sept 90 day contract maturities to the ESZ2018 December 90 Day Contract Maturities...

Day High Quotes Thurs 13 Sept 2018
SPX 2906.76 S&P "Cash" Index
ESU 2907.00 S&P Emini Sept Futures Contract
ESZ 2912.00 S&P Emini Dec Futures Contract
SPY....291.04 SPY ETF

NOTE: This is the TA Technical Analysis S&P 2900 retest prior to the next MinorWave target of 2861 or SPY 291 to 286 potential $5.00 capture.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/#

Watchlist Blue Light Special Bargains added a few more PUTS at low 2900+ Prices preparing for TA Target 2861/2850 next wave retests.

Symbol LastPrice$ Change$ Change% Qty PriceWhenAdded DateAdded
SPY Nov 16 18 $270 Put 1.35 -0.25 -15.62% 1 1.89 09/02/2018
SPY Oct 19 18 $280 Put 1.12 -0.41 -26.80% 1 1.75 09/01/2018
SPY Nov 16 18 $260 Put 0.82 -0.18 -18.00% 1 1.53 09/09/2018
SPY Mar 29 19 $200 Put 0.70 -0.18 -20.45% 1 0.90 08/26/2018
SPY Jan 18 19 $220 Put 0.69 0.00 0.00% 1 0.89 08/26/2018
SPY Oct 19 18 $270 Put 0.55 -0.20 -26.67% 1 0.99 09/01/2018
SPY Jan 18 19 $200 Put 0.34 -0.06 -15.00% 1 0.50 08/26/2018

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sPmWJyJw/

Good Hunting...

Deepdiver
NBF - Nuke Boats Forever

NOTE: This discussion is not intended as investment advice in any way, shape, or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only for discussing that we are now making a major Market Top and entering a Major S&P 38 Year Long Supercycle Top Wave 3 to 4 Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 12:19 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-13-2018 11:21 AM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Interesting the Trump China Money Bomb I posted in other Threads and am combining here - summary: I saw a newsletter Article that strongly suggested that the FXI was a good proxy for China Trade Tariffs settlement rebound since the US Markets are making new all time highs ATHs (S&P Projected to correct from 2916 SPX ATH down to 2000/2050 then up to 3500+ over the next few of years) - whereas China is now in full bear market territory down more than 20%, therefore, China has the most to rebound from in the short-term so should be a better bounce up especially since we are in the process of making an S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 top FXI is making a Major Wave bottom turn from Wave 4 to 5.

FXI - Currently 56+/- China Large Cap ETF Holdings so essentially a DOW style proxy for Communist Freaking Red China - Note I have no problem earning a profit off our enemy when they are being brought to heel with President Trump's corrective interview imnsho.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/2395...rgecap-etf (Scroll down to see all current holdings).

I had looked at FXI Options as I noticed that from the FXI Feb 2016 Swing Low and noticed a clear 4 wave count and calculated Wave 4 was making a turn low into wave 5 so I bought 30 FXI Contracts at 3 laddered prices and sold the lowest Buys on a pop higher for 250% profit and the mid laddered price for 69% profit all in less than one month and held the higher priced FXI Options for a short term loss waiting for the longer term USA/China Trade renegotiations... well my news feeds indicated USA China trade talks back on as the Chinese severely miscalculated the negative effects on their Chinese Freaking Red Chinese centrally Controlled Socialist Predatory Capitalists economy and were dumbfounded that the Trump unfettered free markets economy is booming so much.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-proposi...1536765266

Bottom line I was surprised to see my 10 FXI remaining Fliers for next spring Trade Negotiations to be finalized - well the Markets are sensing a new sense of urgency on the Chinese Red Communists side and FYI popped up 46% today as it had tested a low of $0.08 when it looked like the world was coming to an end with USA Chinese Communist Global Trade and the MSM was screaming Trade War FUD 24/7.

Markets are indicating otherwise today FXI Nov or later Dec/Jan etc $48 Calls may be at a bargain price at 12 cents (x 100) or $12.00 USD per Call Option Contract:

Symbol Last Price $ Change $ Change % Qty  Price Paid $
FXI Nov 16 18 $48 Call 0.12 0.04 46.67% 10 0.38

Good Hunting...

Deepdiver
NBF - Nuke Boats Forever

NOTE: This discussion is not intended as investment advice in any way, shape, or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only for discussing that we are now making a major Market Top and entering a Major S&P 38 Year Long Supercycle Top Wave 3 to 4 Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 12:59 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-13-2018 12:01 PM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Deepdiver:

Is it possible that your 4 can be A and your 5 (around 2916) is B, and hence a C would follow soon? Could you rule out this scenario with a high probability?
09-13-2018 12:29 PM
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Deepdiver
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Post: #30
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
@ Denzel Good Perception: 5 counts at one Subset level are always part of A-B-C wave at the Superset (higher) level.

Shoot me an email and I will take a pic of my hand written notes with a lot of the math permutations - way too deep in the weeds and proprietary to explain here - whereby the current 5 SubWave Minor "A" wave 2916 down to 2860 then come back to balance to B 2895/2900 (NOW) to C wave target down to 2861 (50% Target) continuing to TA Target 2850 Wick to 2840 after which there will be a back to balance retest of Edge high 2880 when new ABC/5-Subwave Counts will be calculated on our SuperCycle SC3 to SC4 Top Turn to SC4 Target of 2000/2050. All in ABC against Trend/5 Wave with Trend counts.

Referencing Background info:

The classification of a wave at any particular degree can vary, though Technical Analysts generally agree on the standard order of degrees (approximate durations given):

Grand supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes

So since these targets are over the next few weeks these are "Minor Wave" Counts extending into "Intermediate" waves.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018 01:18 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-13-2018 01:12 PM
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Denzel
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Post: #31
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Deepdiver,

Could you show me your intermediate EW count from 4 (2551 on April 2, 2018) to 5 (2916 on August 29, 2018) on your graph. Is your intermediate 1 at/around 2718 on April 18, 2018? At what points, do your intermediate 2, 3 and 4 occur (between 2551 and 2916)? Your answer will help me a lot in my analysis.

If it is difficult to upload a picture on Tradingview, or explain here, let me know and I will send you an e-mail.
09-14-2018 12:12 AM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
(09-14-2018 12:12 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Deepdiver,

Could you show me your intermediate EW count from 4 (2551 on April 2, 2018) to 5 (2916 on August 29, 2018) on your graph. Is your intermediate 1 at/around 2718 on April 18, 2018? At what points, do your intermediate 2, 3 and 4 occur (between 2551 and 2916)? Your answer will help me a lot in my analysis.

If it is difficult to upload a picture on Tradingview, or explain here, let me know and I will send you an e-mail.

Actually, we use Large Charts down to Smaller Charts on SPX as longest continuous reliable data on Tradingview back to 1980 iirc 38 years... prior to that were mainframes and ticker tapes...

SPX Weekly Read Only: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/#
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
4 Hour
1 Hour
1/2 Hour
5 Min
3 Min
1 Min

Large Charts confirm Trend Top Turns in Progress or Completed - the Major 5 Wave Has not quite turned when 9 & 20 cross down over 50 and 100 Moving Averages on the Daily and Especially the Weekly you have TA full confirmation of Trend Reversal.

Smaller charts pinpoint more precise trading profit opportunities.

The Major Waves we are in the process of trading MW 1 to 2680-2700 by late fall - we trade Price Targets and not Time Targets as the markets can surprise you - Price Trading Models much more accurate.

Today was a YUUUUGE day for PUTs ...

4 Hour Chart slammed down through the 20 MA and Tagged the 50 MA low

30 Minute Chart IB Range between Dashed yellow lines below = 5.75 pts - impulsing Down 17.75 pts over 300% Impulsing Down Trend Charged Down as an impulsing Type 2 2X+ Trending Day Down (SPY PUTs Up) or possibly Type 5 Reversal (Of Trend) Day as Wick Crossed 4 Hour 50 Bar MA.

Target was a close below 2910 Pivot/POC Red Line and below the 2903 Friday ESZ S1 Pivot Point confirming ESZ likely now to run down to test 2850 and then retest back up to bottom 2900... TA Target this week with 45 pt ATR test ESZ Wkly 9Bar at approx 2860 (Today at 2871).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sDibJOi8/#

At 45 pt Wkly ATR Possible test down to Wkly S3 Pivot of 2832 within one or two weeks. SPY Action 291 down to 285 6 full pts bounce back to 2900 retest 4 full points run down to 283 S3 WkPivot 7 full points or 6+7 Down for 13 Full points $13.00 X1 SPY PUT x 100 SPY underlying = $1300.00 per Put potential...

@Denzel - Remember not to get too hung up on Wave Terminology (Super vs Major vs Intermediate etc) because there is an overlap on the wave tiers:

The classification of a wave at any particular degree can vary, though Market Technical Analysts generally agree on the standard order of "degrees" a.k.a Tiers or Levels - (approximate durations given):

Grand supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes

For instance, when I am referring to a Major Wave it is just a Cycle above which I find Confusing... I could just as well use Primary Wave and still be correct in EW vernacular.

I am updating my SPX latest Leg upwards with a triple fork (High, Mid, Low) like Parallel trend lines (In between Minor to Intermediate) - too busy with quarterly tax paperwork and other administrivia today hopefully by end of next week or so...

NOTE: This discussion is not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2018 05:33 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-17-2018 04:52 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
So what are Pivot Points? From back in the old Chicago Futures Pit Brawler/Trader Days they were too busy giving and taking elbows and shouting orders to play with slide rules or early calculators so they calculated PIVOT POINTs with Support S1-S4 and Resistance levels R4 to R1 in their heads from previous Day's and Week's close.

The key to pivots is if the market is trading below the Pivot Point the Bears are in control and if above a Pivot Point the Bulls are in control - simple tool easy to memorize to make sure Pit Traders did not make dumb trades and lose their shirts.

And of course, S1 to S4 and R1 to R4 are key support and resistance levels calculated mathimagically.

All you need to know about Pivots:
https://www.mypivots.com/investment-calc...calculator (See Formulae)

And the Barchart.com Trader's Cheat Sheet for the ESZ2018 Dec Emini Futures contract:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/...eat-sheet#
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2018 05:26 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-17-2018 05:21 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Interesting newsletter today:

My instincts tell me China is waiting for the midterms before renegotiating in earnest and that President Trump will likely have to go 10% tariffs on all $500B of imported cheap Communist Freaking Red Freaking Chinese crap - if not a full 25% to get their economy to drop another 20% form the 20%+ bear market decline they are in now - they really do not care how much their people suffer and can be stubborn Red Communists that way and do not have to worry about elections so...

Newsletter key points...
Make no mistake: this global trade war is a clear and present danger to your portfolio. Investors who shrug at the worsening U.S.-China rift are misguided. (Neo Cuck Wall Street Drivel...)

After the markets closed yesterday, President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Collection of tariffs on the U.S. list will start on September 24 but the rate will increase to 25% by the end of 2018. Trump threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China retaliated. File under Trump Promises Made and Promises kept - this has been a long time coming and long overdue... The NoKors must also be getting nervous that their sanctions will NOT be lifted any time soon as they are a Chinese client puppet state.

China said Tuesday that it had no choice but to respond in kind. If the White House imposes the additional tariffs it would encompass nearly all remaining U.S. imports from China.

What's more, the market is showing "bad breadth." Positive market breadth occurs when more stocks are advancing than declining, signaling that the bull has room to run.

Conversely, bad breadth occurs when a disproportionate number of securities are declining, a sign of bearish momentum.

So far this year, a handful of large-cap stocks have accounted for most of the market's rise. That's a classic red flag of an imminent correction.

Another danger for the stock market is Federal Reserve tightening. The next two-day meeting of the Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts on September 25. The analyst consensus is that the FOMC will announce a rate hike, which would be the third one this year.

There's an old Wall Street adage: "Three hikes and you're out," whereby the third interest rate increase by the Fed in a single cycle usually leads to a decline in stocks.

Even worse, the Fed could be on track for a fourth rate hike this year, as inflation heats up. Price pressures slightly abated in August but they continue their long-term climb.

We are still in the process of making an SC Wave 3 to 4 Top Turn (ESZ high today 2915 and SPX High 2911) and should test 2861 later this week or early next as Monday and Today were both trending days and usually only two out of 5 trending days per week the remainder being congestive the market closing at either the High or Low of the IB initial Balance 70% of the time. The ATR average true range of the Daily ESZ is 20.38 points today being the maximum number of points per day the market move up or down it has averaged over the past 14 days. the SPX S&P Cash closed at 2904 today so at least two perhaps 3 days before it tags 2861 or SPY 286 from todays 290 - a 4 pt potential capture target on the SPY Put Options. Likely retest to 2880/2900 so might pick up a few SPY calls to catch 2-3 pts or so back up on the SPYs. EOW review on Friday evening will do an analysis for next week or two.
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2018 11:35 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-18-2018 11:16 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Interesting the Trump China Money Bomb 10 FXI $48 calls up 22% Today - they hit a low of $0.08 cents each a week+/- ago - I laddered down my buys (Made 250% and 69% on the lower priced FXI Calls when it popped up) and these were my most expensive FXI Calls that I am holding in case the China Trade Tariffs are negotiated - the Chinese are likely watching the Kavanaugh hearings closely - if Trump's GOP team confirm him it means Trump Bulls are in control - if NOT it means the CFRC Communist Freaking Red Chinese Traitor America Hating Democrat Peoples Communist Party of America bears are in control - and the Chinese will have a free hand in their continual undermining the Constitution of the USA.

What I like about the FXI Calls are they are a Crowd-Market early warning system for USA-China Global Trade status. Markets only care about maximizing PROFITS and minimizing Losses.... so the FXI calls doubling from their low of $0.08 to $0.16 up 22% today indicates that smart money may be cautiously optimistic about the behind the curtains desire of Chairman Xi's minions to minimize the impact of $200B to $500B of 10% tariffs likely to rise to 25% if the CFRCs keep jerking around the USA Trade negotiators team and by direction President Donald John Trump. Their USA and Global slave labor factory Communist Loving Corporate Customers must be screaming now that the Christians Holiday Gift Shopping season beginning i.e. Apple, Amazon, LL Bean, BassProCommunists/CabelasShops, Microsoft, HP, Sears, JC Penny, DollarsMakeYouCommiesHollarFamily-Tree stores etc etc.

Symbol Actions LastPrice$ Change$ Change% Qty PricePaid$ DaysGain$
FXI Nov 16 18 $48 Call 0.16 0.03 22.22% 10 0.38 30.00
09-26-2018 11:45 AM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Deepdiver

Any updates, other than that you must be pretty happy on Friday Smile
10-07-2018 10:31 PM
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RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
LOL So Ecstatic Friday Had A Victory Cigar and Scotch Chaser to Toast All Trumpian Patriots and now Justice Kavanaugh.

Icing on the cake watched the humble and magnificent Boston Red Sox beat the Evil Schumer Empire Yankees... only for the Wank Spanking Yanks to Spank the Sox Saturday series 1 & 1 will see how tonight goes - owners love 5 game series huge extra ticket sales/scalping and Advertising Revenues. Aannnnd the Patriots are hosting undefeated KC next Sunday looks like a battle of the Ancient Wise and Skilled Veteran against the hot brash but very capable Rookie kid - looking forward to it now that the Patriots have a few battle victories under their belts.

So this week EOW Review was postponed by the Legendary Master of Market Wisdom the Green Panda himself to Saturday night to watch Game 1 of the Red Sox - Yanks best of 5 series...

And here we go:

Subject: EOW Review and Monday Afternoon Smell The Coffee Break

Where are we coming from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?
Like Yin and Yang ... We go Out of Balance and Back to Balance.
The Key Questions of both Life and Trading Markets ...The Geen Panda


Key Stats EOD/EOW Friday 05 Oct 2018:

SPX S&P Cash Weekly Pivot Point 2897 ATR 44.66
SPX S&P Cash Daily Pivot Point 2887 ATR 21.18

ESZ2018 S&P Futures Wkly Pivot Point 2904 POC 2011
ESZ2018 S&P Futures Dayly Pivot Point 2899 POC 2925

Used: https://www.mypivots.com/investment-calc...calculator

SPX S&P Cash Key Daily Moving Averages (DMAs):

2912 9 Day
2907 20 Day
2877 50 Day
2818 100 Day
2763 200 Day

SPX Weekly Chart 117 Pts measured from Large Intermediate wave 2 at the ATH 2945 down to the 20 Week Moving Average 2831 target 2945 - 117 pts = 2828 extended A-B-C wave down.

4 Hour ESZ S&P Futures waves A (2945) to B (2915) down A=C to 2860 Daily Target chart ...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sDibJOi8/ 4 Hour Chart A-B-C S&P ESZ2018 Futures
Note My Tradingview Read Only Chart subject to change - so take a screenshot if you want a copy.

Note Monday 8 Oct Globex Trading SPX High 2889 Low 2862 within Daily Range of 4.5 pts so effectively completed 2860 target.
Open 2897 High 2898 Low 2866 Close 2894


ESZ 30 Minute and 5 Minute IB and Extension Side by Side Charts:
Open 2897 High 2898 Low 2866 Close 2894 - Tested 2860 and then retested 2900


NOTE: If we do not break Weekly 9 Bar Moving Average still in Large Intermediate Wave 3 ... The Green Panda

Monday, Oct 8th 2PM SPX Weekly 9 Bar = 2890
Open 2877 High 2888 Low 2862 Current 2884 all numbers open and broke below the SPX Weekly 9 Bar Moving Average so Large Intermediate (Super Cycle Sub Wave) completed.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/# SPX tagged lower Parallel Trend line at 2863.

D2: Plenty of Waves to Ride as we work our way down to MW1 at 2680 over the next few months... as part of SuperCycle Wave 4 to 2000 over the next year or so before SCWave 5 Back up to 3000 to 3500 Wave 5 being most indeterminate so must calculate and plan for multiple permutations and probabilities/possibilities mathemagically speaking.

My Trading Plan for the Columbus Day short week:

Test 2800 and Retest 2950 pause for support and resistance levels at 2828 and 2900.

Starting at Friday Close of 2885 Complete A=C at 2860 and Retest 2900 Completed today Monday 8 Oct 2018.

Then bounce 2828 low by end of week Large Intermediate Wave 4.
- Followed by .618 retrace of A-B-C Leg 2828 to 2945
- Complete [Indeterminant] Wave 5 at 1 X .618 or Failed 5th Wave at Target 2963
OR:
- Complete full 1 = 5 Target 226 pts X 1.618 =366,
- Bottom Wave 2 2697 + 366 equals Wave 1=5 Target of 3063.

NOTE: Market Moves in 50s and 100s or major "decade/century" levels as psychological waypoints...

Therefore will likely hit 2963 because previous ATH was 2945/2950 within daily range value of 9 pts or half=4.5pts.
Will likely NOT hit 3063 and stop at 3050.

Plan to sell 75% Puts at 2828 to 2800 (Market Moves in 50s and 100s)
Buy some Calls to ride up to 2945 to 2963 range (Take 80% Profits) and keep some fliers to possible 3050 new ATH Test.

NOTE: This discussion is not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Bonus:

BTC broke above its short Trend Triangle and sitting at its 50 DMA next to break out above larger Triangle and retest 100 and 200 DMAs...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GnKUWlri/#
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 05:56 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-08-2018 05:23 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
(10-08-2018 05:23 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  LOL So Ecstatic Friday Had A Victory Cigar and Scotch...
....

Then bounce 2828 low by end of week Large Intermediate Wave 4.
- Followed by .618 retrace of A-B-C Leg 2828 to 2945
- Complete [Indeterminant] Wave 5 at 1 X .618 or Failed 5th Wave at Target 2963
OR:
- Complete full 1 = 5 Target 226 pts X 1.618 =366,
- Bottom Wave 2 2697 + 366 equals Wave 1=5 Target of 3063.


Baller Good to hear the scotch.
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2018 09:00 PM by Denzel.)
10-08-2018 08:59 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
China Trump Money Bomb Update...

My last FXI Mid Nov 2018 Calls dropped from 38 cents to 2 cents - down $380... so looked at longer time horizon calls and painted a Fibonacci Retracement from the Absolute FXI Recent Swing High ($54) to Swing Low (38.64) trading EOD/EOW at $40:

FIB Retracement Levels:

1.0 ($54.00)
0.786 ($50.71)
0.618 ($48.13) Golden Ration
0.5 ($46.32)
0.382 ($44.51)
0.236 ($42.26)
0 Zero Line ($38.64)

Now Trading at $40.00 per underlying FXI ETF Share.

I Bought FXI Feb 15, 2019, $48 Calls (Fib .618 Golden Ratio) bid 0.14 ask 0.18 at $0.15 cents per Call for 25 calls as fliers as in taking a low-cost flier to bet on a US-China fair and reciprocal Trade Deal along with a NoKor and China military corrective interview.

Strategy: Trump just saw a quick market flash crash correction this week and knows the markets are a concern with the 38-year supercycle top turn SCWave 3 to SCWave 4 Down from 2900/3000 to 2000/2050 - This weeks flash crash almost completed Major Subwave 1 I shared previously to 2680/2700. Today ESZ2018 S&P Futures at EOD/EOW at 2768.

Trump knows that it does not take much to blow up this Globalists Debt Bomb house of cards and the Globalists are in deep fear of his MAGA Agenda Full Speed ahead get on board or get out of the way Give a Phuck attitude.

EU is negotiating fair trade, Japan and Korea on board, Mexico and Canada on the Trump Train even Russia looking to reach out... Trump has some golf course resorts in Scotland and does not want to see the UK rioting and ruins and has held out an olive branch to Teresa I am NOT a THOT May to get on the Trump Train with basically a free ticket to ride as the EU slides (Pays).

That boxes in China from their Globalists inspired Red Communist Slave Labor agenda for the world with Google, Amazon, Facebook, HP, Oracle, Microsoft and most of Silicon we love Slave Asian Labor Valley bought and paid for by Communist China.

Point is FXI is the super Dow of China and is painting a strong low bottom because XI and the Politburo do not want the CFRC Communist Freaking Red Chinese to collapse further than it has and are clamoring for a revised US-China Trade Deal and because the CFRCs Phocked with Trumps base in the Red State Agricultural and Commodities Heartland he is holding off and increasing the Tariff Squeeze, even more, generating Billions in Customs House Revenues like the Founding Fathers designed it - until after the mid-terms when the Red Wave hits home and the CFRC's alliance with the Obamunist Clinton Traitors backfires on them.

Point is FXI has fallen quite a bit and the Shite Storm always seems worse just before a deal breakthrough. Trump is winning because his policies have America winning.

The Goal is to Bend China to America's will and contain their economic, political and military excesses.

Trump wants China to succeed in terms of Fair, Balanced and Reciprocal Trade with respect for the US Navy's protected Sea Lanes that guarantee global commerce and no high seas piracy.

That's why I bought 25 $48 Calls of the Mid Feb Time Horizon .618 Golden Ratio Calls at $0.15 cents each.... could easily pop to 5X to 10X plus from $40 to $48 on a US-China Trade Deal that meets Trumps Fair Balanced and Reciprocal Trade requirements.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2018 03:52 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-12-2018 03:47 PM
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CaptainChardonnay
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Post: #40
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Market Close Alert 3:45PM PM NYC Time Strong S&P Run on futures up to Fibonacci Retracement .50 then Next to .618

The Green Pandas new intermediate A-B-C Graph. A wave complete and B Running up to 9 Day likely to complete either in Globex overnight or Tomorrow then 20/50 Day at target B of 2860 - then an edge high B impulsing wave C down to target 2550. I will be buying some SPY puts at 286 (ESZ 2860) for target 250/260 yet SPY Jan 200/220 still the cheapest so a few of those to compare SPY 250/260 % increase versus SPY 200/220...

Just tagged .50 Fib Retracement running up Thursdays major Down candle back to 9 Bar and 20 bar with a .618 of A distance retracement target B of 2860.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sDibJOi8/

Interesting that original Supercycle SPX S&P Cash Chart came within 10 Points of the Above Futures A intermediate wave low of 2710 within the 9 Point Day Range Completing the Major Intermediate wave 1 and now working on 2... Note Supercycle Wave 4 completion Target is 2050/2000 and can take a year or two to cycle down to there before running back up to 3500 range on SuperCycle Wave 5...

This month's red candle down wicked to low of 2710...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/#

NOTE: This discussion is not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2018 03:19 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-16-2018 03:17 PM
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Post: #41
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Deepdiver,

Very useful post. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis, too. I have already written "2865" in another thread
given as the maximum range for the bounce. Your post calculates it as 2860. I will not go into minor differences of my analysis which will not change the main point of the analysis above.

I hold a few puts. Tomorrow, I will be watching hourly and 15 minutes charts to determine when to buy more. I have to study a bit tonight to determine my stop-loss though (just in case if the lower probability scenario holds).
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2018 08:23 PM by Denzel.)
10-16-2018 07:39 PM
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Post: #42
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
After watching Jackie Bradley Jr. hit an epic postseason grand slam against the great World Champion Houston Astros I lit up a great Perdomo Churchill Ecuadorean sun grown victory Cigar then after the adrenaline wore off I sat with the Green Panda himself and we recalculated the exact retrace from the bottom of the A wave measured from the 2947 ATH to the Wednesday swing low of 2712 or 235 points times .618 target retrace 2712 plus 145 = 2857 exact target or possibly a lower 50% retrace of 2712 + 117.50 = 2829.50. the .618 2857 is more likely as the market moves in 50s and 100s so 2857 is a good target to sell my calls and pick up 270, 260 and more 200 and 220 puts.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sDibJOi8/

The Alex Cora Boston Red Sox are now leading 2 to 1 in the best of 7 ALCS so looking good to pick up 2 more wins of the next 4 games so if Cora keeps up his masterful management including pulling Barnes after some control issues and putting in 100 MPH hurler Joe Kelly and ERod to close - well Houston is much better than LA and the Brewers so Bostons Red Hot Red Sox could go all the way - icing tonight was watching the NBA Home Opener of the Celtics leading the 76ers - life is good and the B wave target down to 2550 will be an impulsing (fast) wave and a real money maker...
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2018 10:10 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-16-2018 09:59 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Can TPS Turn around GE from its cataclysmic meltdown?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i...2018-10-17

GE's Board finally listened to Screaming Irate Investors and flush out the old arrogant bastard Jack "Fire 10% of your workers every year to scare the hell out of the survivors" Curmudgeon Welch and buy a fleet of GE Powered jets to fly yourself and young PAs around the globe terrorizing employees and senior staff with your Sick Six Sigma whip and witches brew while diversifying away from GEs Core Business into a modern disConglomerate where Jack Phocker Welch could poke his mean old shriveled hog leg into just about any industry he could Phock the Hell Up... The result GE has declined precipitously from its swing high at the end of the Welch-Immelt Sick Sigma Era of $33 on July 18, 2016 to a dismal low of $11.21 on Sept 24, 2018.

I painted a Fibonacci Retracement Graph of the Swing high to Swing Low and it has barely bounced off of the Zero Line and the Moving Averages 9, 20, 50, 200 all look like an Olympic Ski Jump DOWN.

Whereas the Volume Profile Visible Range (Swing High to Swing Low) has the POC of real orders at $30.39 with one standard deviation value range low of $18 to high of $33. Does this mean that GE is finally pulling itself out of Jack Welch's fear-based sick sigma ass and getting its act together and why the hell should we care and not follow conventional wisdom and avoid GE like an HIV infected Thai bangawhore?

One of the oldest wealth creation strategies is to buy once great iconic Heroes when they have fallen flat and become total Zeros... and play the long rebound.

The TPS or Toyota Production System adapted to Danaher allowed Larry Culp to increase Danaher share value over 376% over the past 10 years while legendary GE drunk on Jack Welch's and his Minion Jeff Immelt's sick sigma Conglomerating acquisitive Egomania crashed leaving the most recently fired GE CEO to take out their trash and try and sell off "non-core" businesses.

With GE Trading at a low of $12.26 today just below the 9 Week Moving Average of today and the Trading View Technical Analysis screaming Strong Sell since GE delayed their most recent financials while Culp surveys the carnage he has inherited and where to focus his new TPS initiatives...

I will be watching GE over the next week or two while the S&P market looks to complete its C wave down to 2550 and then buy a few long GE Call Options with key target prices to rebound to like:

Golden Ratio 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement AND converged 200 Week Moving Average $24.68
0.5 Fibonacci Retracement $22.11
50 Week Moving Average $14.61
20 Week Moving Average $12.89
9 Week Moving Average $12.42
Price at 1PM Weds Oct 17th, 2018: $12.30

Likely lower if S&P Tags 2550 over the next week or two.

Why S&P because GE Still in the S&P 500 after being dumped from the DOW after a 100+ year run - the Wake Up Call the sclerotic GE board needed to take action in hiring GE OUTSIDER Culp to come in and disrupt GE with TPS...

While the Main Scream Biz Media Talking Heads Screaming SELL GE the Wise money is stealthily hunting for GE turnaround buy targets.

NOTE: These discussions are not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major 40 Year S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2018 12:41 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-17-2018 12:22 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
SPY itself the Puts and Calls I trade multiday/weeks just tagged its 9 DMA (Daily Moving Average) at 280.54 now at 280.65 slowly walking back up the long Weds 10 Oct Red down Candle to the 100 DMA of 282.21 and or .618 S&P Futures Retracement target of 2857 and SPY 285.7 with the SPY 20 DMA at 286.41 falling and likely to converge at 285.7 in the next day or so. My target Calls Sell and Puts Buy.

NOTE: These discussions are not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major 40 Year S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
10-17-2018 12:38 PM
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RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
DUPE
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2018 03:23 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-17-2018 03:23 PM
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Post: #46
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Latest EOW Review with Today's Double Bottom - Tradingview just put a huge Blue Publish Button up on my Screen so publishing there with NO Green Panda insider track record and thoughts as Sucess is Secrecy and Secrecy is Success...

So...

The Green Panda is famous for calculating multiple What If permutations so likely 3 Options...

All three .618 Retracement options fall within the 20DMA 2843 and 50DMA 2872 Daily Moving Averages on the Daily Chart.

.618 Fib B Wave Retrace from 2692 Wick Low = 2849.75 (2850 for 50s and 100s moves rule):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ESZ201...Swing-Low/

OR: B Wave Oct 2712 Swing low retrace back to .618 2857 (2860)

OR: B wave .618 Retrace from Candle Body TPOs at ironically todays close of 2746 = 2870
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2018 03:31 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-23-2018 03:24 PM
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Denzel
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Post: #47
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Interesting Newsletter Email today...

Takeaway: The Socialist Marxist Communist Obamunist' recovery was so Anemic that Trump has some more economic Gas in the Tank and landing room runway clearance to perhaps glide in nicely to the 2020 Re-election - especially if he builds the damn wall and prosecutes the Clinton Obamunist Cabal of Deep Stater Traitors and their holdover minions.

Why the U.S. Expansion Will Last Through 2019
Nicholas Vardy, ETF Strategist, The Oxford Club

Predictions of an impending U.S. recession may make it on the cover of The Economist...

But a careful look under the U.S. economy's hood does not support predictions of an imminent slowdown. Nicholas Vardy explains why...

Britain's The Economist magazine occupies a unique role in shaping global conventional wisdom.

If you want to read the same articles that shape the opinions of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) founder Bill Gates and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger, The Economist is your publication.

That's also why Economist cover stories have long been one of my favorite contrarian indicators. When I see one with a clearly bullish or bearish slant, I always ask myself whether the opposite could be true.

That's why last week's cover story gave me pause...

Chart -

The message could not have been clearer: The global economy is on the brink of recession.

Alas, the arguments The Economist set out were disappointingly conventional.

Recessions are inevitable. The global economy is in the late stage of the economic cycle. Policymakers will need creative new tools to pull the global economy out of its imminent slump.

As I put on my contrarian hat, The Economist's cover story tells me two things.

First, a global recession isn't imminent.

Recessions happen when magazine covers suggest that everything is fine and dandy. They don't happen when major publications predict a slowdown is around the corner.

Second, the current U.S economic expansion could go on longer and stronger than most pundits expect.

Let me explain...

First, a quick review of economic cycles...

An economic cycle starts from a trough and moves into expansion. It culminates in a peak of activity, endures a contraction and ends in recession, heading back toward a new trough.

Chart - The Economic Cycle

But analyzing the economic cycle is more complicated than this simple graph suggests.

The subcycles that make up the broader economic cycle are rarely as smooth or symmetrical as depicted above. The expansion phase typically lasts longer than the contraction phase. And some subcycles pause before resuming. Some peak before they're reflected in GDP. And some are coincident with peak activity, while others lag.

At 110 months, the current U.S. economic expansion is now the second longest on record. Conventional wisdom suggests a downturn is due.

Yet the current expansion differs from past expansions in two important ways...

First, the pace of the current U.S. expansion has been tepid.

Yes, in 10 more months, it will tie the record with the 1990s expansion in length. But with real GDP expanding at 2.3% per annum, it's also been the slowest expansion ever.

Historically, a typical post-war expansion lasted an average of five years, with the economy growing at 4.6% per year. Real GDP increased by an average of 25%.

But with a 22.3% rise in GDP so far, this expansion has generated less than half the gains of the great 1960s boom. It's also well below the 43% gain of the 1990s.

All this suggests the economy is far from overheated.

Second, while the current expansion is getting long in the tooth, economic expansions don't die of old age.

They die because of overinvestment, tighter financial conditions and outside shocks.

To date, the current expansion has been remarkably free of economic imbalances.

Predictions of an impending global recession may make it on the cover of The Economist. But a careful look under the U.S. economy's hood does not support predictions of an imminent slowdown.

First, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index of economic indicators rose 0.5% in September. That marked the 12th straight month of gains.

This suggests the U.S. business cycle remains strong and that growth could top 3.5% heading into 2019.

Second, a recent study by Ned Davis Research reviewed a dozen subcycles. Its conclusion? Not a single one of its indicators is even close to flashing a recession reading.

So how much further can the current U.S. expansion go?

No one knows.

But the numbers suggest the current expansion could extend beyond the consensus of 2019.

One thing is clear...

The U.S. economy is not on the verge of entering a recession.

So don't run for the hills just yet.

Good investing,

Nicholas
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2018 03:56 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-23-2018 03:49 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
What are your thoughts on the mid-term elections? If the Dems get majority in the House (likely) or Senate (not likely but possible), Trump's going to have a difficult time getting anything done. Anyway, if this scenario plays out the markets will reel. Wondering if there are any smart plays to profit on this. Short SPY or DIA?
10-27-2018 03:20 AM
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RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
(10-27-2018 03:20 AM)Alpha_Romeo Wrote:  What are your thoughts on the mid-term elections? If the Dems get majority in the House (likely) or Senate (not likely but possible), Trump's going to have a difficult time getting anything done. Anyway, if this scenario plays out the markets will reel. Wondering if there are any smart plays to profit on this. Short SPY or DIA?

My politics are simple there are Patriots and there are Traitors and you do not need to be a perfect person to be a perfect Patriot (Myself and Trump included) and I have a warriors hatred of traitors and agree with George Washington that a firing squad is a kind solution to dealing with Traitors.

That said I do subscribe to some of the top political/economic analysts to get their insights to apply to my own planning - though the incredibly brilliant Green Panda has taught me that the Markets Do what they are Supposed to Do - nothing happens in this universe according to Chaos and in all chaos one can detect and predict patterns with the correct tools and methods. And given the 3 actionable picks at the end of this long informative post - I am in the Green Pandas Camp why invest in individual companies subject to insider profits and stock price manipulation (Recently MNST Beverage, GE, WMT as examples) when you can invest in the entire market with safe leverage via S&P Futures and SPY Options as it is nearly impossible to manipulate all 500 S&P Corporations simultaneously.

The Latest Anaylsis per Strategic Intelligence (Former CIA Financial War Strategist) regarding Mid Term Elections and the Economy:

Midterms Mayhem: The Only Thing Certain in the Markets Will Be Uncertainty
New Issue Posted 1 Days Ago By Byron King, Jim Rickards, And Nomi Prins

Midterms Mayhem: The Only Thing Certain in the Markets Will Be Uncertainty
In April 2017, shortly after Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 45th president of the United States, I wrote the following under the title of “America’s New Civil War”:

American politics has reached its most dysfunctional state since the Civil War. This condition will not go away and will intensify until either President Trump is politically disabled or his opponents are politically sidelined. This unprecedented state of affairs has enormous implications for markets and investors… Those who cling to the notion of “politics as usual” will suffer enormous losses as the dysfunction plays out.

After Trump completed his inaugural speech, address to a joint session of Congress and most of his “first hundred days,” one might expect that the White House would fall into a businesslike routine, and the opposition would die down. Nothing could be more wrong. The Trump opposition is emboldened by some early success at wounding the White House, while the White House itself is scrambling from the attacks while aggressively advancing its agenda at the same time. Both sides are dug in for a long battle.

In effect, the United States is in its second civil war. This time it’s not North versus South. Now it’s President Trump and a relatively small band of top officials versus Democrats, global elites, mainstream media, mainstream Republicans, the permanent government, holdover Obama appointees and Obama himself.

This new civil war is not violent or bloody like the first, but the stakes are just as high. The first Civil War (1861–65) was fought over momentous issues including succession, slavery and states’ rights. It resolved the unfinished business of the American Revolution and the Constitutional Convention, and set the United States on the path of civil rights and federal governance it has pursued ever since. This new civil war is being fought on a larger stage over the issues of nationalism versus globalism, secure borders versus open borders, trade, sound money, domestic manufacturing and so-called progressivism versus tradition.

Trump’s election as president shocked the progressive-globalist forces now aligned against him. Progressives viewed their agenda as irreversible: a kind of “liberal ratchet” that always turns in one direction and never goes in reverse. Trump is now moving the ratchet in reverse. But as with a real ratchet, resistance is strong and something will break before the situation is resolved.

For their part, opponents of Trump have called openly for impeachment or have sought to create conditions for a forced resignation in a scenario where both Republicans and Democrats turn on the president. There is no middle ground. Either Trump will subdue the progressives or he will leave office early. Either outcome will prove highly disruptive to the normal political and economic functioning of the United States.

In the same article from which this quote is taken, I outlined five methods by which the so-called “resistance” would try to disable Trump. The first was impeachment. The second was recourse to the 25th Amendment, by which a president can be removed from office for mental unfitness, among other causes. The third was a forced resignation because of the dysfunction caused by relentless harassment. The fourth was assassination (four presidents have been assassinated, and several more were targets of failed assassination attempts), and the fifth was a simple inability to function because of deep state sabotage. I called these the “five arrows” of the resistance.

Now, two years since Trump’s election and 18 months since my original article, and with new elections in a matter of days, is a good time to take stock and see how well my analysis has held up and forecast what’s next in America’s New Civil War and more specifically the War Against Trump.

How’s The Resistance Doing?
My five arrows analysis was highly accurate. Fortunately, there have been no assassination attempts, but the other four arrows were not only used but continue to be used.

Impeachment. If the Democrats take the House of Representatives on Nov. 6 (a possibility discussed below), they will move straight to impeachment hearings as soon as they are sworn in as members in mid-January. The impeachment process will take up a lot of the House’s time during the first half of 2019 (which won’t affect Democrats’ policy agenda because that’s already dead in the water). For investors, the result will be more market uncertainty and the likelihood of a declining stock market because of the uncertainty.

Removal of the president under the 25th Amendment. This got a boost recently when it was revealed that the Deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, offered to “wear a wire” to entrap President Trump into making comments in private meetings that could be offered as evidence of his mental unfitness. The idea is ridiculous and provides easy grounds for Rosenstein’s dismissal and possible prosecution. But it put new life into the ongoing 25th Amendment fantasy harbored by Democrats.

Relentless harassment and deep state sabotage. The harassing of Trump , mainly by the media, and deep state sabotage, mainly from the State Department, Justice Department and the Intelligence Community, has continued as I expected. Yet they have failed. There is no evidence that Trump is worn out by it or even thinking of resignation. In fact, Trump seems to thrive on it and is energized by the opportunity to expose his opponents as “fake news” and “leakers.” This is not just rhetoric.

The list of intentional and negligent reporting errors by The Washington Post and The New York Times is embarrassingly long at this point. Many deep state leakers have either been arrested for leaking or pleaded guilty to lying to investigators. The perpetrators include Treasury official Natalie Edwards (arrested), James Baker (under investigation, resigned from FBI), Andrew McCabe (under investigation, fired by FBI), James Wolfe (Senate staffer charged with leaking) and many others. The deep state may not be dead, but it has been exposed for what it is.

Similarly, the continual harassment and sabotage have not stood in the way of Trump’s agenda. He has renegotiated NAFTA, cut taxes, appointed two conservative justices to the Supreme Court, (Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh), partially repealed Obamacare, tightened border security, repealed regulations and much more. Few presidents have accomplished as much in so short a period of time as Trump.

Democratic resistance operative Wilfred Michael Stark III (shown above) was arrested on Oct. 16, 2018 for assaulting a female Republican campaign manager in Nevada. He
has prior arrests and has been accused of stalking, assaulting and harassing other Republican women. His actions are funded by George Soros. More Details Here.

So here’s the scorecard on the resistance.

Assassination has not been tried and hopefully never will be. Impeachment and the 25th Amendment are left-wing talking points for now, but impeachment could take center stage beginning in January. Deep state sabotage and media harassment have unfolded but have not slowed down Trump’s agenda.

My biggest surprise is that the resistance continues despite their failures. I fully expected the resistance to use every tool at their disposal, but I did not expect them to continue the resistance this long or this aggressively in the face of continual failure.

At some point, I expected the resistance to accept their 2016 defeat and turn to the 2018 midterm elections with fresh faces and fresh policy ideas. They have some fresh faces, but the policy ideas are the same mix of higher taxes, open borders and more regulation. The midterm elections are technically local but are shaping up as a national referendum on more Donald Trump versus more Nancy Pelosi.

For now, the resistance continues, but so does Trump. On Nov. 6, we’ll see who prevails. Here is the latest update on the prospects for the elections.

Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018, is the date of the U.S. midterm elections that will decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The outcome of those contests will determine whether Trump is allowed to finish his first term or not. The turmoil surrounding potential efforts to unseat Trump could roil markets to a greater extent than any event since the 2016 votes by the U.K. to leave the EU (“Brexit”) and the election of Donald Trump as president.

The Democrats Have No Likely Path to Senate Control
The Senate is currently divided between 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats). A change of two seats in favor of the Democrats will give Democrats control of the Senate under the leadership of Chuck Schumer of New York.

Of the 100 Senate seats, 35 are up for election in 2018. Those 35 Senate seats are currently divided among 24 Democrats, two Independents who caucus with Democrats and nine Republicans. Simply put, the Democrats have more turf to defend and potentially more to lose. Twenty of the 35 seats are considered safe for the incumbent party; those seats will not change parties and will not affect the balance of power in the Senate.

The remaining 15 seats consisting of 10 Democrat and five Republican incumbents are close in the polls and will determine the balance of power. Six of those 10 Democratic seats are leaning Democrat. One Democrat seat is leaning Republican. Three of those five Republican seats are leaning Republican. The remaining five seats, of which three are Democrats and two are Republicans, are too close to call. The close races are Arizona and Nevada (both now Republican) and Missouri, North Dakota and Montana (all now Democrat). The Democrats would have to win all five of those close races, while keeping all of their current seats, to gain control of the Senate.

The Democratic control scenario is extremely unlikely to happen. The one Democratic seat leaning Republican is Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. The latest polling (Oct. 4) shows Republican challenger Kevin Cramer ahead of Heitkamp by 12 percentage points. Heitkamp’s vote against confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh doomed her chances. North Dakota is a pickup for the Republicans.

This means that the Democrats would have to go five-for-five in the close races and score an upset in one of the “lean Republican” states such as Tennessee or Texas. But Republicans in those states are ahead by 14 points (Blackburn in Tennessee) and 8 points (Cruz in Texas), respectively.

In short, the Democrats have no likely or clear-cut path to Senate control. Investors can safely conclude that the Senate will remain Republican with a slightly larger majority of 52-48 or even 53-47 once the close races are decided.

The House Races Are a Different Story
All 435 seats are up for election in the midterms on Nov. 6. Republicans currently control the House by 236 seats to 193 for the Democrats with six vacancies that will be decided in the upcoming election. The Democrats will have to hold all of their existing seats (including the two Democratic vacancies) and pick up 23 currently Republican seats to gain control of the House.

Of the 435 seats up for grabs, 405 seats (206 Democrats and 199 Republicans) are considered safe for the incumbent party or lean in favor of the incumbent. That leaves only 30 seats that are too close to call. Among the seats that are sure winners or leaning to one party or the other, the Democrats have a net pickup of 12 Republican seats. The remaining Democrat pickup of 11 seats (for a total of 23 pickups) will have to come from that group of 30 toss-up seats in order to win control of the House.

The 30 toss-ups consist of 29 now held by Republicans and one held by Democrats. If the Democrats hold the single Democrat seat and win 11 of the 29 remaining toss-ups while Republicans hold 18, the Democrats will take control of the House.

That’s it. The Democrats have to win 11 of 29 toss-up races for seats now held by Republicans to win the House.

Predicting the outcome of those 29 close elections is extremely difficult because important indicators such as polling, likely turnout and enthusiasm are changing by the day. In addition, the 405 seats that are counted as safe or leaning include 44 seats in the leaning category that could move into the toss-up category by Election Day.

The electorate is in a dynamic mode at the moment and could move to Republicans (as part of the Kavanaugh backlash) or to Democrats (based on concerns about health care policy). Even the best possible analysis must come with fair warning that this is a close election and we won’t really be sure of the outcome until the day after the election, or maybe later.

The Pollsters Have It Wrong… Again
The vast majority of polls and pundits are predicting a Democratic victory in the House. But those predictions must be taken with more than a grain of salt. Here’s why:

Most major pollsters are associated with media outlets such as ABC, NBC, The Washington Post, The New York Times and others who heavily favor the Democrats. Their polling methods can skew the outcome in favor of Democrats by sampling all voters (instead of “likely” voters) and by oversampling Democrats in general and African-American Democrats in particular. Also, small samples can produce larger margins of error. These were the same mistakes the pollsters made in 2016 when they predicted Hillary Clinton would be elected president with a likelihood of 70–90%. The pollsters who were wrong in 2016 will likely be wrong again because they have done little to improve their models or balance their methodology

The quality of polls and the final election results depend entirely on turnout. Pollsters make assumptions about millennial, Hispanic, female and African-American turnout and likely voting patterns that are incorrect. Liberal pollsters routinely overestimate millennial and African-American turnout. They also overestimate the so-called “gender gap.” Focusing on the fact that more women support Democrats ignores the fact that more men support Republicans and the two factors tend to cancel out. Women are more independent-minded than the liberal pollsters assume and male turnout will be greater than the same pollsters assume. Finally, Hispanic voters seem to be splitting 70-30 for Democrats instead of the 80-20 pro-Democratic split the pollsters assume. Once the polls are adjusted for all of these factors, the Republican showing will be much stronger than the media project.

Finally, let’s look at some recent polling data from actual bellwether races. Here are 13 races (shown by state and district number) to watch on election night and in the weeks ahead to get a feel for how the overall House election will turn out:

If the election were held today based on these data, the result would be four seats for the Republicans, six seats for the Democrats and three seats still too close to call. The final results of these 13 bellwether races could be seven Republicans and six Democrats, or nine Democrats and four Republicans. Both outcomes are possible. This is a simple illustration of how close this election really is.

While these data slightly favor Democrats, a few words of caution are in order. Eight of the 13 districts have polling results within the poll’s margin of error. When that information is put in the context of the polling critique above, the races may be closer than they seem. The other caution is that some of these data are over 10 days old. Given the dynamic nature of this midterm election and recent trends toward Republicans, the North Carolina 9th District and the California 10th District may produce surprise victories for Republicans.

Here’s The Bottom Line for the Outcome
Democrats are slightly favored to take control of the House of Representatives.

But the election is much closer than headlines and polls make it appear. When polling deficiencies and dynamic surges in turnout are taken into account, the election will be close and Republicans may hold onto the House, if just barely. Since all of these trends are still in play, close attention needs to be paid over the next two weeks before final forecasts of the outcome can be made with confidence.

If the Senate and House both remain in Republican hands, expect more of the same. The Senate will continue to confirm Trump-appointed conservative judges to the federal courts, and perhaps a justice to the Supreme Court should another vacancy arise. Even with a narrow majority in the House, party discipline will enable a Republican House to work with a Republican Senate and the White House to increase defense spending, pursue bilateral trade negotiations and isolate China on the global scene. Trump will continue his efforts to build the wall and tighten immigration enforcement.

The Left’s Radical Hidden Agenda
If the Senate remains in Republican hands (as expected) and the House is controlled by the Democrats (a close but likely outcome as of today), investors should expect radically different results. With Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House, Adam Schiff as chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Maxine Waters as chair of the House Financial Services Committee and Elijah Cummings as chair of the House Oversight Committee, the House will engage in a frenzy of investigations, hearings, subpoenas and other actions with the sole purpose of removing Trump from office or paralyzing his administration. Chief among these efforts will be hearings aimed at impeaching Donald Trump.

Specifically, Elijah Cummings will subpoena Donald Trump’s business and personal tax returns as part of an expanded investigation into alleged Russian money laundering by Trump entities. Trump will certainly resist this on grounds of executive privilege. The result will be protracted acrimony, name-calling and litigation possibly going to the Supreme Court.

Any decision by the Supreme Court will then lead to calls for recusal by Kavanaugh and a revival of various Kavanaugh allegations and investigations of those. An impeachment of Justice Kavanaugh may proceed side by side with an impeachment of Donald Trump. This will lead to an undermining of the role of the Supreme Court and a breakdown of relations between the executive and legislative branches of government. The worst constitutional crisis since Watergate will be the result.

Progressive Democrats have an even more radical agenda than the investigations and impeachments described above. Democrats want to tear up the Constitution as it now stands, based on the view that America should be a “pure” democracy instead of the republic it has always been. Democrats now favor packing the Supreme Court with more justices in order to appoint liberals, apportioning Senate seats based on population rather than two per state, adding Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia as states in order to increase Democratic seats in the Senate, abolishing the electoral college, imposing term limits on Supreme Court justices and other radical steps that rewrite the Constitution without a formal constitutional convention.

Under the current system, voters in presidential elections vote for a specified number of electors in their state who are then instructed to cast all of their votes for one presidential candidate or the other based on which party’s electors were chosen. Under the Democratic plan, the electoral college would be abolished and presidents would be elected by a simple nationwide popular vote. This means that New York and California would dominate national politics and Republicans would find it almost impossible to win a presidential election. This is the Democrat’s answer to Trump’s victory in 2016.

This hidden agenda was captured nicely in a recent article by Ezra Klein in Vox:

It is not difficult to imagine an America where Republicans consistently win the presidency despite rarely winning the popular vote, where they control both the House and the Senate despite rarely winning more votes than the Democrats, where their dominance of the Supreme Court is unquestioned and where all this power is used to buttress a system of partisan gerrymandering and pro-corporate campaign finance laws and strict voter ID requirements and anti-union legislation that further weakens Democrats’ electoral performance. If this seems outlandish, well, it simply describes the world we live in now, and assumes it continues forward. Look at North Carolina, where Republican legislators are trying to change the state Constitution to gain power over both elections and courts. Look at Wisconsin, where state Republicans gerrymandered the seats to make Democratic control a near impossibility. Look at Citizens United, which research finds gave Republicans a 5% point boost in elections for state legislators. Look at Georgia, where the GOP candidate for governor currently serves as secretary of state and is executing a voter purge designed to help him win office.

Klein’s reference to “pro-corporate campaign finance law” conveniently overlooks the decades of pro-union campaign finance that preceded the Citizens United case. His reference to “strict voter-ID requirements” ignores decades of double-voting and illegal voting by felons and deceased voters. His reference to Republican gerrymandering ignores Democratic gerrymanders such as Maryland, where the city of Baltimore is sliced and diced to provide Democratic votes for suburban communities that then elect Democrats. The inconsistencies don’t trouble Klein. His point is that anything other than direct popular voting helps Republicans and therefore must be opposed. The fact that the American Constitution was designed to avoid direct popular voting at the national level is a casualty of Klein’s ideological zeal.

A related analysis based on Klein’s original article was provided by David Leonhardt of The New York Times:

“First, the United States has never gone through a prolonged period of minority democratic rule — that is, when a minority of enfranchised citizens held power over a majority for years on end…

Second, the party now empowered by a minority of voters — the Republicans — is not merely playing by the rules. It is trying to change those rules to maintain power. It is preventing some citizens (usually those with dark skin) from voting, and it is changing campaign-finance laws.

That second point leads directly into a third: The rules governing our country have frequently changed over the last 230 or so years. The number of states has more than tripled. Women, African-Americans and 18-year-olds, among others, have gained the right to vote. In all, the Constitution has been amended 27 times.”

One would think that expanding the vote to include women, blacks and those under 21 would be counted as progress. But for Leonhardt, it’s just a prelude to direct popular voting for president and an end to the electoral college.

The Democratic agenda has been laid bare by columnists like Klein and Leonhardt, even if very few politicians have not said so publicly. If the Democrats take the House, these and many other radical plans will be laid on the table in the form of legislation or calls for constitutional amendments. The Democrats hope to ride this radical platform to victory in the 2020 presidential elections.

The Democrats’ Newest Weapon
Both the policy agenda of impeachment and investigations and the hidden agenda of constitutional change come on top of the Democrats’ newest weapon, which is violence in the streets.

In recent weeks, Democratic activists from Antifa and other radical groups have hounded a Trump Cabinet secretary, press secretary and a U.S. senator and their spouses from restaurants (including most recently Mitch McConnell and his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao); sent death threats to senators and their staffs; vandalized Republican offices in three states; sucker-punched several Republican candidates, causing one to suffer a concussion requiring weeks of recovery; and sent poison packages to the White House, Pentagon and several senators; among other threats and acts of violence.

Prominent Democrats have had ample opportunity to distance themselves from these illegal and reprehensible acts. Instead, they have remained silent or actively encouraged the violence. Former Attorney General Eric Holder said his recipe for Republicans was to “kick them.” Maxine Waters encouraged Democrats to give Republicans no peace when they are seen in public. Hillary Clinton said “civility” can wait until after the elections. It appears the violence and social disorder are here to stay and will grow worse if the Democrats take the House.

Republican State Rep. Sarah Anderson of Plymouth, Minnesota, was punched by a self-proclaimed “anarchist” after she told him to stop ripping down her campaign yard signs. The full story is here. This is part of a rising wave of violence aimed at Republican candidates and staff.

Trump will respond in kind and effectively go to war with the Democratic-controlled House. Trump thrives on such controversy and will use the impeachment effort to energize his own campaign for reelection in 2020.

The result will be a paralyzed government unable to pursue effective fiscal policy, domestic policy or international relations. While the impeachment wars are raging, the 2020 presidential campaign will go into full swing after the midterms, which will politicize the environment even more. The hardball politics and bitterness that suffused the Kavanaugh confirmation will be back with full force, except the dysfunction will last for two years, not two months.

The Return of a Bear Market
As if this political dysfunction were not bad enough, U.S. stock and bond markets have now turned more volatile and are suffering huge losses for the first time since last February. The difference between now and then is these losses may presage bear markets rather than being mere blips in long bull markets.

Many analysts have opined on the volatility and downward trend in U.S. stock markets in October 2018. The 5% decline in stocks from Oct. 1 through Oct. 12 was the steepest decline since February. However, stocks recovered the February losses and reached new highs by September. The October decline, although not as steep as February so far, may contain the seeds of a full-scale bear market.

Theories about this decline include a reaction to continued monetary tightening by the Fed, the impact on earnings of multinational companies from a strong dollar and the potential for inflation and higher wages that could hurt corporate profits. While all of these theories have some merit, the most likely explanation is also the simplest one: The market is discounting uncertainty arising from the upcoming elections. If the government is about to become dysfunctional based on possible Democratic control of the House, that’s a good reason to lower expectations for U.S. growth and therefore stock prices.

The bond market decline is even easier to explain. The Fed is raising rates, but there is still little evidence of inflation. In fact, the latest inflation figures show a slight decline in inflation compared with recent months. This means that increases in nominal rates controlled by the Fed are also increases in real rates as dictated by the economy. Bond prices move inversely to yields. As the Fed raises rates, and as markets anticipate further rate increases, bond prices collapse. Some analysts foresee the end of the 37-year bull market in bonds that began in 1981.

It’s unusual to see stocks and bonds collapse in tandem. In a strong economy interest rates may rise, hurting bond prices, but stocks do well based on growth. In a weak economy, stocks may suffer, but bonds rally on lower interest rates. The current situation, where the Fed is raising rates even with signs that the economy may be slowing due to the strong dollar and trade wars, results in stocks and bonds both going down. Investors have nowhere to hide except possibly cash or gold

This reality of the current economic factors described above is an accident waiting to happen in good times, but is even more likely to occur during volatile and highly contested election cycles. Violence by the resistance, including Antifa, can easily trigger a violent response by their targets or by radical right-wing militias. This will be one more tragic step on the path of social disorder and the new Civil War. Markets will be repulsed by this and investors will head for the exits, looking for safe harbors such as the aforementioned cash and gold, along with land, natural resources and other hard assets.

How You Should Play the Election
What does this outlook mean for investors?

With stocks and bonds declining at the same time, there are few sanctuaries in U.S. securities markets. Overseas markets are no better because of uncertainty in Europe due to failed Brexit negotiations and Italian resistance to EU budget directives.

Emerging markets are on edge due to currency and debt crises in Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Indonesia and elsewhere.

Even China, the world’s second-largest economy, is running out of tricks and is now staring at a slowing economy, rising inflation, capital flight and an emerging debt crisis.

Investors have nowhere to turn.

One bright spot we see will be U.S. defense stocks. President Trump is determined to rebuild America’s military strength despite deficit concerns. Nondefense agencies may have to tighten their belts, but the military has been given a green light to acquire F-35 fighters, Ford-class aircraft carriers, drones and satellites and to restock depleted inventories of cruise missiles and artillery. The defense buildup will proceed regardless of fiscal constraints or even a U.S. recession.

Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) is the defense stock we recommend buying. Northrop produces many components that go into the F-35 fighter jet. It also has a dominant position in critical defense programs including the B-21 bomber, satellites, cybersecurity and drones. With industry-leading revenue growth prospects, shares of NOC are likely to rise by 15–20% over the next year. In a rockier market environment, many investors will seek the safety of defense stocks, like NOC, which have visible streams of revenue and generous dividends and stock buybacks.

We will not be tracking Northrop Grumman in our regular portfolio that Strategic Intelligence readers receive each month but feel it is a great addition for income in today’s financial and political climate.

The acrimony, uncertainty and violence described above will be highly negative for U.S. stocks and bonds. It’s not that markets will choose sides. It’s more the case that markets despise uncertainty, and the political dysfunction described above will produce the greatest political uncertainty since the Cold War and Watergate.

Investors can prepare for this outcome now by reallocating stocks toward defense names like Northrop Grumman and also increasing allocations to cash and gold. Then be prepared to stay up late on election night to see how events transpire.

ACTION TO TAKE:
Buy Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) up to $330 per share.
Speaking of America’s defense, read on as my collaborator, Byron King, gives his insight on the state of America’s military and his recommendation to profit from an oil and gas powerhouse poised for a rebound. His analysis is below.

Regards,

Jim Rickards
Editor, Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence

More Actionable Picks:
I like Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), the oil field service company. Nearly a century old, Schlumberger is a technology powerhouse. It’s a critical, indispensable global provider to the arenas of geophysics, downhole well logging and production. With a market cap of $81 billion, shares currently sell at a five-year low of $58. Dividend yield is 3.3%.

With global oil prices continuing to rise in the months and years to come, I see Schlumberger shares moving back up toward the $100 range, for a potential 66% gain before dividends.

In the past year, Schlumberger has posted an unusual earnings loss. Management is working to turn things around. When the earnings return — and they will — I expect that SLB shares will become Wall Street darlings again.

ACTION TO TAKE:
Buy Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) up to $65 per share.

How to Play the Infrastructure Boom
As central bank money becomes even more necessary to sustain growth, expect an infrastructure spending shift to take place globally in the coming months.

Infrastructure stimulus could counteract global GDP slow-downs in the U.S., the EU, China and other more stable emerging markets that are closely connected to more developed economies.

As I discovered from my meetings, locales like Mexico are well positioned to benefit from such an infrastructure boom. In the aftermath of the post-Trump tax cut world, this will be a key investment theme in the coming months and into 2019.

Mexico’s premier cement company, Cemex (NYSE: CX), is a superb infrastructure play to consider. The company is heavily exposed to construction activity in Mexico but also has strong demand and projects in the U.S. and Europe and around the world.

A new administration will take office in Mexico starting Dec. 1. It has already committed to infrastructure building as one of its key platforms.

Cemex is involved in major projects in Mexico as well as the U.S. Just this month, the company announced its participation in the construction of Salesforce Tower, the tallest building in San Francisco. It has also won accolades for its plants throughout the U.S., where it employs American workers at over 160 facilities in the southeast alone.

On the domestic front, Cemex announced supplying over 60,000 cubic meters of concrete for the construction of what will become the tallest tower in Mexico City. Cemex is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on Oct. 25, and we believe these will provide a lift to the infrastructure sector.

In general, long-term construction projects that enhance infrastructure and extend on both sides of the border will transcend periodic slower-growth periods. This is important to note before the release of U.S. GDP figures on Oct. 26. We believe the figures will reflect what the IMF’s recent report concluded about the U.S. — that GDP growth is likely to slow next year. But sectors such as infrastructure, that are more strategic about their own growth, will outperform the markets.

Being strategic in certain sectors of the market gives savvy investors an edge in market performance. We expect shares of CX to rise by 30–50% in the coming months on improved sentiment toward the infrastructure sector.

ACTION TO TAKE:
Buy Cemex (NYSE: CX) up to $6.50 per share.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2018 04:03 PM by Deepdiver.)
10-28-2018 04:02 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Ultimate Trump money bomb profits thread
Green Panda EOW Institutional Update:

Now that you read the dire predictions in Strategic Intelligence this is how the Institutions are Planning to reap fortunes from the so-called Chaos and Volatility - Rothschilds Motto "Fortunes are made when Blood is Running in the Streets!"

The Market is Doing what it is Supposed to DO!

Epic Market Volatility and Profits targets about to form...

A-B-C Correction against long 40 Year SuperCycle Up Trend part of the SC Wv3 to SC Wv4 top Turning
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eJuQrhx0/

Completed SPX Major Wave 1 Down (Monthly SPX Recent Big Red Down Candle) and now in intermediate ESZ Profit Waves Cycles, Trends, Pivots and Moving Averages Support and Resistance correlations to at .618 Retrace of the Jan Correction to Sept/Oct Market Top.

See ESZ S&P Futures Fibonacci Retracement Graph on new data from S&P ATH 2947 to This weeks Swing Low 2626
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sDibJOi8/

Fibonacci Retracements target most probably the Golden Ratio 0.618 or 62% new retracement target is 2824 B sub wave Top a good place to come out of shorter-term calls even at a small loss for an Epic fast Impulsing B Wave Down (Load up the SPY JAN FEB Puts Here) to retest A=C at the Zero line of 2626 then impulsing to the new Swing Highs down Trend Line target of 2450 with a continuation 1.618 of A impulsing wave to a target 2300 dashed yellow target line.

Of course, this SuperCycle Wave 4 Continuation will occur in multiple sub waves so keep at least half your powder dry for Subwave turning profit opportunities.

SPY B Top 282/280 Puts to 245 (70% Profit Target) with 30% January/February SPY Puts fliers to 230 are 37 and 52 Dollar potential capture ranges respectively - huge intrinsic 1 SPY point = $100 and acceleration profits to be taken.

Now why hold some Longer Term SPY Call fliers - after the 2450 and 2300 retracement targets (230 Best range to buy SPY Calls) the current Fibonacci retracement graph from the Zero Line 2626 to 1 ATH 2947 extends back up to 1.618 at 3145 on the long 40 Year USA S&P Up trend based upon profits and Earnings long-term or SC Wv4 to SC Wv5 continuation... Volatility and Profit Opportunities are always the rule at long SuperCycle major Wave Count Turning Points like this.

NOTE: These discussions and any associated thread posts are not intended as investment advice in any way shape or form and is mentioned for informational purposes only now that we are entering a Major 40 Year S&P Supercycle Wave 3 to 4 Top Turning Reversal. Seek competent professional advice to determine your risk tolerance before trading Options or Futures contracts. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
10-28-2018 04:41 PM
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