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Poll: Who do you think is likely to win?
Poroshenko
Tymoshenko
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Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
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Blake2 Offline
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Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
First of all, let me explain the importance of this thread.
The election is coming up on 31 March 2019 with at second and final round on 21 April 2019.

There are 2 candidates that have a realistic shot- Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.

If Poroshenko wins, the status quo remains (slow IMF mandated reforms, continued IMF loans).

If Tymoshenko wins, we are likely to see major change. For anyone following the rhetoric and past history, her presidency means lower chances for IMF loans as she clearly rejects IMF mandated reforms.

You can see the way Western politicians view her by reading the Atlantic council's articles on her. (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ukraine)


Without IMF loans, the other option would be Russian/Chinese loans and/or a major crisis.

If the global economy enters a recession or period of slowed growth ("OECD lowers global growth forecast for 2019"), this combined with the political turmoil can lead to significant changes for Ukraine. This is likely to have significant effects on Europe as a whole as well as other countries.


What do people here predict?
A currency crisis? Increased armed conflict? Status quo?

Latest polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po...tion,_2019

Let's try and keep things civil and relatively objective.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2018 01:59 PM by Blake2.)
11-25-2018 01:47 PM
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Batka Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Poroshenko is trailing badly in the polls and his approval rating is through the floor. What better way to distract the proles than to provoke another war with Russia...

this time in the Sea of Azov.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-fires-...a-11563775

Quote:Ukraine says Russia has opened fire on its ships in the Black Sea.

One vessel was hit by the strikes, injuring a crew member, the Ukrainian navy said.

There were also unconfirmed reports that three Ukrainian ships had been captured by Russia - after a day of rising tensions off the coast of Crimea.
11-25-2018 02:39 PM
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AManLikePutin Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
This thread couldn't have been more timely. Looks like tensions are escalating to their highest level since 2014.


11-25-2018 06:27 PM
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Blake2 Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Nothing too special happening with the currency, seems like the national banks has that stabilized.

People on the steet are saying this is due to Poroshenko trailing in the polls to Tymoshenko.

Newspapers saying that martial law will not prevent IMF cooperation with Ukraine.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
11-26-2018 07:30 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
The current leader is unpopular isn't he? I expect some form of military control with him at the helm so he doesn't get booted out and thus ends up getting killed by someone who doesnt like him.

He wants to escalate and is intending to bring his cousins - aka US and EU into the fray.
11-26-2018 07:48 AM
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Blake2 Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Yes, Poroshenko is fairly unpopular: highest unfavorability ratings in the polls, consistently trailed Tymoshenko in polling (not a single poll I have seen places him ahead).

Analysts are saying escalation of conflict may be desired by both sides. (Putin's popularity has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years, last time it was so low was 2013.)

This situation is still evolving and may change rapidly.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2018 08:21 AM by Blake2.)
11-26-2018 08:15 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
What happens if Ukraine blows that bridge up?
11-26-2018 12:51 PM
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Shemp Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
>>What happens if Ukraine blows that bridge up?

Angers people in Russia, forcing Putin to retaliate. Situation could then spiral out of control and that is risky to powers that be. So probably won't take such a drastic step.

As Blake2 suggested, watch the exchange rate. If it doesn't move much, this is all play acting.
11-26-2018 01:11 PM
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Blake2 Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
(11-26-2018 01:11 PM)Shemp Wrote:  As Blake2 suggested, watch the exchange rate. If it doesn't move much, this is all play acting.

"Ukrainian Assets Tumble as Crimea Tensions Eclipse IMF Progress"
Bloomberg Article:

-Ukrainian government bonds fell the most since their issuance
-The hryvnia was on track for its biggest drop in more than a month against the dollar. hryvnia slipped as much as 1.6 percent against the dollar


""The IMF, eventually, will maintain its financial aid to Ukraine, and for Russia, as long as there is no extension on the conflict on land, I don’t think there will be meaningful consequences.""
===================

So far, nothing major, but keep an eye out.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2018 02:15 PM by Blake2.)
11-26-2018 02:15 PM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Its just to save the Presidents neck by looks of it. He can cancel elections with martial law and take control of many things, including the media.
11-26-2018 03:29 PM
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Thor Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Going there in 2 days. This will be interesting
11-26-2018 05:13 PM
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Philosopher Offline
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
It appears that Poroshenko is implementing martial law so he can delay the election. https://twitter.com/search?q=martial+law...r%5Esearch

Think the whole incident today was Putin giving Poroshenko enough rope to hang himself as a prolonged confrontation with Russia will give moderates the chance to oust him, similar to what happened with Saakashvilli in Georgia. Perhaps a dark horse candidate like Segey Tihipko or someone from the Opposition Bloc as Yuriy Boyko has 14% to Timoshenko's 16. http://sg-sofia.com.ua/elektoralni-orien...-gromadyan

"The unexamined life is not worth living." - Socrates
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2018 07:45 PM by Philosopher.)
11-26-2018 06:49 PM
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Blake2 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
As of now, martial law is partial and temporary.
Only 10 provinces are affected (Kyiv, Lviv not included).

The elections are not affected and martial law ends in 30 days.


This is what the situation is +at the moment+. According to the news, martial law can be extended as a result of new "aggressive actions".

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
11-27-2018 01:48 PM
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Rocha Online
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Post: #14
RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Porky's chances at winning are none to zero. He is the ridicule and laughingstock of Ukrainian society and independent media. Nobody likes him.

With or without martial law his days are numbered.

"Поехали!!" (Yuri Gagarin, 1961)

Twitter - Роча
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2018 09:01 PM by Rocha.)
11-27-2018 09:00 PM
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
11-27-2018 11:04 PM
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TigerMandingo Online
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RE: Ukraine 2019 Election Thread
Oh god. I just looked up who Richard Engel is.

Another alien confirmed Laugh

Kokkinakis banged your girlfriend. Sorry to tell you that mate.
11-27-2018 11:15 PM
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