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2018/2019 Bear Market
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The Father Online
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Post: #76
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 11:09 AM)Troller Wrote:  If I want to sell a house and have 15 buyers maybe I will raise the price of the house. They will probably pay more. If there´s no buyer will have to lower the price. Buyers if interest rate goes up can´t buy the house. Because the effort to pay the monthly installment will be bigger. So your price cannot reach you buyer because the rate increase ate the space where your price and the buyer could connect. Everytime there´s a rate increase you are eating a chunk of an asset price.

There's just one problem: Housing prices have gone up when interest rates have risen. And crashed when interest rates have risen. They've gone up when interest rates have declined. And crashed when interest rates have declined. In an academic, all-else-held-constant environment, rising discount rates will decrease asset present values in a predictable manner. The problem is, highly liquid capital markets are not predictable over short periods of time. They have been, historically, very predictable over long periods of time: They go up, and they are mean-reverting.
12-26-2018 08:16 PM
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Neo Offline
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Post: #77
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Making no changes whatsoever. Continuing to max out all retirement accounts into funds with an aggressive mix of stocks vs. bonds. I'm relatively young with good cash flow so I'm ignoring the waves.
12-26-2018 08:23 PM
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The Father Online
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Post: #78
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 08:14 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 08:08 PM)The Father Wrote:  Why do you think anyone who followed Malkiel lost their shirt on shitcoin?

They failed to pull out when things turned sour

This is also the reason too many men pay child support...
12-26-2018 08:59 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #79
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Student loan bubble. Buy bitcoin.


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(This post was last modified: 12-26-2018 09:18 PM by Swordfish1010.)
12-26-2018 09:12 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #80
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 08:23 PM)Neo Wrote:  Making no changes whatsoever. Continuing to max out all retirement accounts into funds with an aggressive mix of stocks vs. bonds. I'm relatively young with good cash flow so I'm ignoring the waves.

Young, and buying bonds. Huh
12-26-2018 09:13 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #81
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Why on Earth would you buy bitcoin because there's a student loan bubble?

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12-26-2018 09:26 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 09:26 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Why on Earth would you buy bitcoin because there's a student loan bubble?

Bitcoin is a deflationary store of value, and the student loan bubble will cause the market to go bearish at best or crash at worst, causing more wealth to move into bitcoin.
12-26-2018 09:34 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #83
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 09:34 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Bitcoin is a deflationary store of value, and the student loan bubble will cause the market to go bearish at best or crash at worst, causing more wealth to move into bitcoin.

This is what I meant a few posts ago when I said coming up with "narratives" is how you lose a lot of money.

The student loan bubble has minimal effect on the short-medium term stock market. It's a problem, and a nasty one, but not one that's going to affect your stock portfolio anytime soon.

Also, as far as I know there's no real inverse correlation between stock prices and crypto prices. At least, I've never seen one.

So yeah, don't throw a bunch of money at BTC because of the student loan bubble. That would be silly.

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12-26-2018 09:39 PM
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Post: #84
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 09:34 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 09:26 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Why on Earth would you buy bitcoin because there's a student loan bubble?

Bitcoin is a deflationary store of value, and the student loan bubble will cause the market to go bearish at best or crash at worst, causing more wealth to move into bitcoin.

I think the last year has proven bitcoin is a store of of nothing but a negative example.
12-26-2018 10:29 PM
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Post: #85
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 09:13 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(12-26-2018 08:23 PM)Neo Wrote:  Making no changes whatsoever. Continuing to max out all retirement accounts into funds with an aggressive mix of stocks vs. bonds. I'm relatively young with good cash flow so I'm ignoring the waves.

Young, and buying bonds. Huh

Well he did say an aggressive mix of stocks vs bonds...could be 95% stocks and 5% bonds...even that would be too much fixed income for a young person, if the bonds were UST's...but they could be emerging market bonds, high yield bonds...all of which have a more volatile risk/reward profile and which might have a small role in a young person's portfolio.