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2018/2019 Bear Market
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BaatumMania Offline
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Post: #126
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
I don't think this one could be worse than 2009. 2009 had the whole mortgages being given out to potato people. And then baby boomers made it much worse by potato dumping all their retirement funds thinking shit was about to hit the fan. I don't think there's as much dumping this time around.
12-29-2018 03:21 PM
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The Father Offline
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Post: #127
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Dupe
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2018 03:44 PM by The Father.)
12-29-2018 03:40 PM
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Johnnyvee Offline
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Post: #128
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 03:21 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Alex Jones is great fun to listen to, but he's another guy who's in the category of predicting 50 of the last 2 recessions.

I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.

In my opinion that would have happened in 2016 had it not been for the Dems going with Hillary, which was huge mistake. I guess they banked on the first female President™ BS, which backfired massively.

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
12-29-2018 05:23 PM
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[email protected] Online
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Post: #129
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
I respect Peter Schiff but he is wrong about Bitcoin. He said things in the past that are completely wrong. He said that the fixed supply of 21m can be inflated by forking the coin or by creating completely new crypto currencies. Even in the podcast he says there are over two thousand other crypto-currencies, therefore, Bitcoin is worthless.

It's the network effect and liquidity surrounding it that makes Bitcoin valuable. If I copied & tweaked Facebook and called it burnerbook.com, it'd be worthless because only a handful of people used it. Some have come up with alternatives like VK.com that got some of the market share and became very valuable. Just because there are thousands of social networking websites on the net doesn't make Facebook worthless.

I was a gold bug back in 2009 and I realised precious metals are good for store of value (SoV). Bitcoin is SoV plus the speculative fluctuations on top of that. It fluctuates 84-90% but over long time horizons it goes up. It went from down from 20k to 3k this time but it's still 3k when the whole thing began at 0. It's only existed for 10 years and it will take more time and liquidity for it become stable like gold or become completely worthless.

And yes, it is a bubble, like everything else is. Real estate is a bubble, so are student loans, the stock market and everything else. It all stems from the biggest bubble which is the fiat-debt fractional reserve monetary system. Bitcoin's price is just a reflection of that. Everyone, myself included, are just buying assets to inflate ourselves out of debt. For some reason Norman's think they are different because their asset is called a house, antique furniture or a painting.
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2018 05:32 PM by [email protected].)
12-29-2018 05:32 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #130
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Life and the Universe move in cycles:

Big Picture SPX (Cash) S&P 500:

Completed the 40 Year Supercycle Wave 3 top now making a Supercycle Wave 4 Bottom in 5 Major Sub Waves Down then upon completion of SuperCycle Wave 4 bottoms and turns into SuperCycle Wave 5 to retest the All-Time-High Emini Futures 2947 SPX Cash ATH 2940.91 and equal% probability of a 1.618 X SC1 to SuperCycle Wave 5 Upper Target of 3455 in 2021/22 timeframe.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/35...g-Average/

Supercycle Wave 4 will bottom in early 2019 then begin SuperCyle Wave 5 Run up in time for POTUS Trump re-election Campaign so Trump is either lucky or has a Market TA that understands this and will take credit for the continuing booming economy even though the Progressive CPUSA demoncommies are doing everything to derail it after the midterms with an early 2019 SCWave 4 bottoming around the swearing-in of Pelosi and her Progressive Caucus CPUSA DSA Chinese Red Communist sympathizing "No Border - No Walls - NO USA at All!" chanting problem children.

In the meantime, the markets will do what they are supposed to do and this knowledge allows multiple Profit Opportunities:

Green is the SuperCycle - Purple the Major Subwaves and Orange the Minor Subwave targets of Major Wave 4 five Subwaves in direction of Trend (Still Down) and Major 4th Sub 5th broken into a further 5 Subwaves (Orange) with targets beginning next week after New Year's day:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/5...o-5-Waves/

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Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists:
https://wrathoftheawakenedsaxon.wordpres...-download/
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2018 06:07 PM by Deepdiver.)
12-29-2018 05:44 PM
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Johnnyvee Offline
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Post: #131
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 03:21 PM)BaatumMania Wrote:  I don't think this one could be worse than 2009. 2009 had the whole mortgages being given out to potato people. And then baby boomers made it much worse by potato dumping all their retirement funds thinking shit was about to hit the fan. I don't think there's as much dumping this time around.

I guess it all depends on whether the potato people will still trust the dollar as a safe haven? Last time this happened people sought refuge in the dollar. But if we see new rounds of QE and resulting high inflation, where most folks really experience their purchasing power being diminished...then what?

It might be triggered by more savvy investors and US dollar/IOU holders, and a reduced global demand for dollars. But if you start to see the dollar depreciate during a recession, most normal folks will probably panic. They don`t know to much about Gold or Swiss franc etc. It`s really the post Trump monetary policies that concerns me.

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
12-29-2018 05:45 PM
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The Father Offline
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Post: #132
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 05:45 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  I guess it all depends on whether the potato people will still trust the dollar as a safe haven?

Potato people? Wus that? You mean, like the Irish?
12-29-2018 05:48 PM
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Johnnyvee Offline
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Post: #133
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 05:48 PM)The Father Wrote:  
(12-29-2018 05:45 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  I guess it all depends on whether the potato people will still trust the dollar as a safe haven?

Potato people? Wus that? You mean, like the Irish?

I was responding to BaatumMania`s post. He introduced the termquestion

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2018 05:52 PM by Johnnyvee.)
12-29-2018 05:52 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #134
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.

How much money have you made off of Schiff's calls in the past? Do you know anybody who made a lot of money following his calls?

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12-29-2018 05:53 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #135
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 05:53 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.

How much money have you made off of Schiff's calls in the past? Do you know anybody who made a lot of money following his calls?

No successful Institutional Traders take Peter Schiff seriously though I do like to listen to his PodCasts to be grounded as to what the potential worst-case downside is so I follow proper trading discipline and do not go all in like a Casino bottle girls Cleavage Crazed poker gambler.

Deepdiver the OG Hunter-Killer ... NBF - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Donald John Trump's real achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists:
https://wrathoftheawakenedsaxon.wordpres...-download/
12-29-2018 06:05 PM
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Johnnyvee Offline
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Post: #136
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 05:53 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(12-29-2018 05:23 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  I`m not taking financial advise from Alex Jones either, but I still think that Schiff is right about the fundamentals. Unfortunately also about the political consequences, which will mean a Socialist/Marxist candidate wins in 2020.

How much money have you made off of Schiff's calls in the past? Do you know anybody who made a lot of money following his calls?

Personally I bought some silver ETF`s based on Schiff`s and other`s predictions back in the early 2000`s, and did well with that. But whether he is ultimately right or not is yet to be seen. I`m not really that interested in investing, but rather the political issues resulting from economical policies. I don`t think following Schiff`s advise is smart if you`re a day to day trader, I just belive that he will be proven right eventually. Own some physical gold in other words!

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
12-29-2018 06:27 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #137
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Happy new years market update:

I have a few observations after doing my quarter end market analysis for what it's worth-

I never trust the first rally off the lows, which is what we're experiencing. The up days have been on low volume, which is a sign of weakness, The down (distribution) days preceding this bounce were on much higher volume. A telling sign that I think means we may get a substantial bounce here, but lower lows are very possible.

We’re up 7 percent off lows with this bounce. This correction we're undergoing is, I believe a cyclical bear market within a secular (long term) bull market. More on that below.

The average "first rally bounce" that occurs in a cyclical bear within a secular bull is +13% since 1920s.

The problem with these rallies is that they occur around a lot of volatility, which makes properly buying individual stocks very difficult.
So, it makes stocks risky.

It’s important to recognize if it’s a cyclical correction (which I said I believe it is) or if it’s associated with a recession and therefore a secular (bigger longer term) bear market.

The signs of an impending recession that I watch are not showing themselves at this point. There are a few concerns with interest rate and SOME inversion of the yield curve, but many of the other indicators that often flash before a recession are not showing themselves. These reasons and a few others are why I, again, think we're in a cyclical (shorter term) bear market.

I converted the portfolios I manage for my clients (ETFs and managed money) to 50% cash on October 17 before the watershed decline started. All individual stock trading accounts have been in cash starting a few days before that, with the exception of some short term stock trades I made about 2 weeks ago. I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy.

At this point, I think we could see a snap back rally, another, deeper downside for a bit and then , finally, the long term bull market will resume. I think that potentially there could be much more upside in the stock market, perhaps for years. I base this on the fact that, if you look at cyclical bear markets within secular bulls, after these short term bear markets played themselves out, the market advanced well past these corrections and went on for years or decades.

Case in point - 1987 was a cyclical correction (very dramatic) within a secular bull market ( 1982-2000) After 1987, the markets went up many many times from there for another 13 years. 2000 - 2010 was the "lost decade" where it was all sideways action punctuated by two bear markets.

We're now about 9 years out of that mega-consolidation (sideways action ) of 2000-2010. In the context of what markets have done after long term (decade or longer) sideways action, 9 years is not excessive. For example, the 1970s were a lost decade that, juxtaposed with a chart of the early 2000s, looks very similar. What happened after the lost decade of the '70's? A bull market that lasted 20 years (with, as I mentioned some cyclical bear markets within it)

The current sentiment composite shows very negative sentiment which is a good contrarian indicator.

I think we could be setting up for a buying opportunity, with this pullback but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.

Some of the red flags or at least things to watch is the fact that the Fed us raising into a weakening environment which is a little different than the past when they usually raise into an inflationary environment.

There are a few catalysts which could spark a new rally to get us out of this correction. For example the tariff situation is eventually going to blow over with China. This maybe the catalyst to spark the next rally. Or, perhaps a fed policy change.

- One planet orbiting a star. Billions of stars in the galaxy. Billions of galaxies in the universe. Approach.

#BallsWin
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2019 12:54 PM by robreke.)
01-01-2019 12:47 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #138
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
This guy is usually pretty balanced, and he notes that the market is tremendously overpriced, making it quite difficult to buy companies at a discounted price. Cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio is way too high, nearing the all time high and 2x what it usually is. The Wilshire GDP indicator (stock market value to revenue ratio) is also too high. Warren Buffet is heavy on cash.



01-01-2019 09:55 PM
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Post: #139
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
Also note that cash is finally worth something with the rising interest rates after years of earning nothing. You literally had no choice but to invest in the stock market or risk losing purchasing power to inflation. Now, you can park your cash in a money market account earning a risk free 2.5% or look for 3-5 year CDs earning 3% or more. Why take any risks in this overpriced market?

Market timing is a fool’s game, IMO, so I’m not saying wait for a bottom to buy back in because who knows when that is. I’m perfectly comfortable earning a measly 3% this year. There’s nothing wrong with some risk management and capital preservation after a 10 year bull market.
01-02-2019 04:46 AM
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JayR Offline
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Post: #140
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-02-2019 04:46 AM)Walt_Heisenberg Wrote:  Also note that cash is finally worth something with the rising interest rates after years of earning nothing. You literally had no choice but to invest in the stock market or risk losing purchasing power to inflation. Now, you can park your cash in a money market account earning a risk free 2.5% or look for 3-5 year CDs earning 3% or more. Why take any risks in this overpriced market?

Market timing is a fool’s game, IMO, so I’m not saying wait for a bottom to buy back in because who knows when that is. I’m perfectly comfortable earning a measly 3% this year. There’s nothing wrong with some risk management and capital preservation after a 10 year bull market.

Welcome to the forum.

I'm sticking with dollar-cost-averaging into the market via my 401K. With plenty of time before retirement and my employer's 25% match, I think I can beat cash this way. I stuck it out through the bottom in 2008 and am really glad I didn't panic and miss out on the recent decade-long rally. I agree with your statement about trying to time the market, so I plan to do the same here during this pullback.
01-02-2019 02:00 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #141
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-01-2019 12:47 PM)robreke Wrote:  Happy new years market update:

I have a few observations after doing my quarter end market analysis for what it's worth-

I never trust the first rally off the lows, which is what we're experiencing. The up days have been on low volume, which is a sign of weakness, The down (distribution) days preceding this bounce were on much higher volume. A telling sign that I think means we may get a substantial bounce here, but lower lows are very possible.

We’re up 7 percent off lows with this bounce. This correction we're undergoing is, I believe a cyclical bear market within a secular (long term) bull market. More on that below.

The average "first rally bounce" that occurs in a cyclical bear within a secular bull is +13% since 1920s.

The problem with these rallies is that they occur around a lot of volatility, which makes properly buying individual stocks very difficult.
So, it makes stocks risky.

It’s important to recognize if it’s a cyclical correction (which I said I believe it is) or if it’s associated with a recession and therefore a secular (bigger longer term) bear market.

The signs of an impending recession that I watch are not showing themselves at this point. There are a few concerns with interest rate and SOME inversion of the yield curve, but many of the other indicators that often flash before a recession are not showing themselves. These reasons and a few others are why I, again, think we're in a cyclical (shorter term) bear market.

I converted the portfolios I manage for my clients (ETFs and managed money) to 50% cash on October 17 before the watershed decline started. All individual stock trading accounts have been in cash starting a few days before that, with the exception of some short term stock trades I made about 2 weeks ago. I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy.

At this point, I think we could see a snap back rally, another, deeper downside for a bit and then , finally, the long term bull market will resume. I think that potentially there could be much more upside in the stock market, perhaps for years. I base this on the fact that, if you look at cyclical bear markets within secular bulls, after these short term bear markets played themselves out, the market advanced well past these corrections and went on for years or decades.

Case in point - 1987 was a cyclical correction (very dramatic) within a secular bull market ( 1982-2000) After 1987, the markets went up many many times from there for another 13 years. 2000 - 2010 was the "lost decade" where it was all sideways action punctuated by two bear markets.

We're now about 9 years out of that mega-consolidation (sideways action ) of 2000-2010. In the context of what markets have done after long term (decade or longer) sideways action, 9 years is not excessive. For example, the 1970s were a lost decade that, juxtaposed with a chart of the early 2000s, looks very similar. What happened after the lost decade of the '70's? A bull market that lasted 20 years (with, as I mentioned some cyclical bear markets within it)

The current sentiment composite shows very negative sentiment which is a good contrarian indicator.

I think we could be setting up for a buying opportunity, with this pullback but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.

Some of the red flags or at least things to watch is the fact that the Fed us raising into a weakening environment which is a little different than the past when they usually raise into an inflationary environment.

There are a few catalysts which could spark a new rally to get us out of this correction. For example the tariff situation is eventually going to blow over with China. This maybe the catalyst to spark the next rally. Or, perhaps a fed policy change.

Rob:

You said:

"I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy."

Curious if you could explain/share your Long term Buy Signal?

Deepdiver the OG Hunter-Killer ... NBF - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Donald John Trump's real achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists:
https://wrathoftheawakenedsaxon.wordpres...-download/
01-03-2019 05:14 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #142
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-26-2018 09:59 AM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Is the once great GE Going to be flushed down the toilet - NO, is it going to be sold to China for pennies HELL NO - WHY you Ask? Because GE is approx #39 on the Federal Top 100 Prime DoD Contractors list...

New CEO Culp used TSP Toyota Supply Program basically the new ISO/Deming Stats Quality Control/JIT to create 400% returns for Danaher Stakeholders and he is doing same now to Turn Around GE...

One of the tried and true two to 10 bagger+ strategies is to invest in previously great companies now on hard times but ripe for a turnaround. GE was $33.00 in July 2016 - trading today 26Dec2018 at 6.81 and 52 week low was several days ago at 6.66.

The VPVR POC on the 3 year daily chart from the above swing high to current swing low is in fact 30.34 and the 12 month POC is 13.81, therefore, the $15.00 calls had quite a bit of open interest outstanding holds of 228,158 on this option.

Therefore these 12 month in the future GE $15 Call options have a low time premium for the potential returns...

10 Call Options allows you to control 1,000 GE shares for only $155.00 and when it rebounds with some improving news over the next 4 quarters the returns on these options could be in the 5X to 10X range.

Date Order Type Order type Quantity Symbol Price type Term Price Price
12/26/18 630 Option
Buy Open
10
GE Jan 17 '20 $15 Call
Mkt Day Mkt
0.15

Total price $159.95 including commission on 10 GE Call Options

Interesting GE Update... On a strong down Day GE was actually up - this further reinforces my premise that GE is making a bottom and likely some volatile swing trading but eventually up from here as new CEO Culp implements his TSP programs and begins to reap the rewards... over the next 4 to 8 quarters...

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO COM JAN-20 $15.00 CALL
(GE Jan 17 '20 $15 Call)

Thursday January 3rd 2019


Symbol Last Price$ Change$ Change% Qty PricePaid$ DaysGain$ TotalGain$ TotalGain%
GEJan 17 20 $15 CallTrade 0.22 0.02 7.69% 20 0.125 30.00 149.81 55.45%
CloseRoll12262018 0.22 0.02 7.69% 10 0.15 15.00 49.91 31.17%
CloseRoll12262018 0.22 0.02 7.69% 10 0.10 15.00 99.91 90.75%


DOW 22,668.60 -677.64 (-2.90%) NASDAQ 6,460.03 -205.90 (-3.09%) S&P500 2,446.40 -63.63 (-2.54%)

Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Day's Range Volume Trade
0.22 + 0.02 (+10.00%) 0.20 x6 0.22 x200 0.17 - 0.23 2,447
Real Time Last Trade as of January 03, 2019 3:41:31 PM EST
Open 0.19
Previous Close 0.20
Open Interest 219542 This is huge indicates a very liquid market in the number of open Call Option Contracts

Intrinsic Value N/A
Time Premium 0.21
Option Type Equity
Last Day of Trading 1/17/2020
Expiration Date 1/17/2020
Exercise Style American
Options Multiplier 100
Deliverable for this contract
100 Shares of (GE)

Underlying Quote
Symbol Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Day's Range Volume
GE 8.05 + 0.01 (+0.06%) 8.05 x29,200 8.06 x51,100 7.78 - 8.20 98,468,774
NYSE Real Time Last Trade as of January 03, 2019 3:42:00 PM EST

And the even longer term Same $15 Strike Price note the higher time premium for an extra year:

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO COM JAN-21 $15.00 CALL
(GE Jan 15 '21 $15 Call)


Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Day's Range Volume Trade
0.61 + 0.01 (+1.67%) 0.56 x20 0.64 x66 0.54 - 0.65 287
Real Time Last Trade as of January 03, 2019 3:51:15 PM EST
Open 0.55
Previous Close 0.60
Open Interest 44099
Intrinsic Value N/A
Time Premium 0.60
Option Type Equity
Last Day of Trading 1/15/2021
Expiration Date 1/15/2021
Exercise Style American
Options Multiplier 100
Deliverable for this contract
100 Shares of (GE)

Deepdiver the OG Hunter-Killer ... NBF - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Donald John Trump's real achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists:
https://wrathoftheawakenedsaxon.wordpres...-download/
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2019 05:31 PM by Deepdiver.)
01-03-2019 05:25 PM
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Walt_Heisenberg Offline
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Post: #143
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
AAPL tanking today and taking the market with it is definitely alarming. Will more high profile companies follow with their own revised (down) guidance? Could be an ugly year and stay that way for several more. We could stagnate and face lower returns for an extend period of time. It has happened before and can happen again.

JayR, I should’ve mentioned that I too have a pretty decent 401k plan at work with a good company match. I contribute to that every paycheck so in that sense, I’m also DCA’ing and remain in the market. I’m 20+ years from retirement so hopefully things will work out long term.

But all my other money is in safe cash instruments. If you have a couple of monitors open and time to follow the markets, all this volatility is great, you can definitely make some $$ with short term trades using options, inverse ETFs, etc.
01-03-2019 06:34 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #144
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-03-2019 05:14 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  You said:

"I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy."

Curious if you could explain/share your Long term Buy Signal?

It's a proprietary system from the equity research department at my company that I'm affiliated with as an advisor. I use it to manage my own 401k, long term mutual fund money and some tactical accounts for a number of my clients.

It doesn't change very often so there is very little whipsaw action. when it does go to a sell (often a year or years after being on a buy) that's usually an indicator it's going to be a more severe correction, which this one has been.

It's been helpful and accurate in avoiding the more violent corrections and bear markets (like this one is, short-lived though it may end up being).

- One planet orbiting a star. Billions of stars in the galaxy. Billions of galaxies in the universe. Approach.

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01-03-2019 07:52 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #145
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
I follow indicators and the step back in manufacturing was more than expected. Not sure if it's "real" but could be. Will keep an eye out.

Get your passport ready!
01-03-2019 10:43 PM
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The Father
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Post: #146
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-29-2018 01:53 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Thank you for posting about that hack Armstrong. His advice and predictions are functionally useless.

There's a thread on bitcointalk about the very man. A few people have been actually tracking his calls and have called them out as flat wrong.

Notice how he hasn't posted crap on his private blog during the most volatile time of the year? The guy is an above average trader but that's it. He's no better than dice at predicting price movements.

Edit: the last twenty pages have some of the most critical comments. The guy's a blubbering idiot conning people into think he's some Nostradamus.

Armstrong has a different and interesting take than many others. I would not dismiss him (nor have you or Mr. Father). Look back on any post I made, or others that are interested in what he has to say, nowhere do we say that he is some sort of Nostradamus; we just gave his predictions. Father boy posts one thing and your confirmation bias is hooked. I expect more, Beast.

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01-03-2019 10:47 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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Post: #147
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-03-2019 10:47 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(12-29-2018 01:53 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  Thank you for posting about that hack Armstrong. His advice and predictions are functionally useless.

There's a thread on bitcointalk about the very man. A few people have been actually tracking his calls and have called them out as flat wrong.

Notice how he hasn't posted crap on his private blog during the most volatile time of the year? The guy is an above average trader but that's it. He's no better than dice at predicting price movements.

Edit: the last twenty pages have some of the most critical comments. The guy's a blubbering idiot conning people into think he's some Nostradamus.

Armstrong has a different and interesting take than many others. I would not dismiss him (nor have you or Mr. Father). Look back on any post I made, or others that are interested in what he has to say, nowhere do we say that he is some sort of Nostradamus; we just gave his predictions. Father boy posts one thing and your confirmation bias is hooked. I expect more, Beast.

Have you actually tried to use his system to make trades? Because if you had, you'd realize he's an idiot.

The last few times I used him to make a trade, I lost out BIGLY. The final call was when gold was at $1050, Armstrong claimed it was going to 800 and below earlier last year. I sold almost $10k in mining stocks to watch that rip up and up.

This was posted on his private blog back on November

Quote:Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and ensures that the economy will only get worse.

Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have. However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this develop as soon as December.

Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support. The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency makes.

WHY THE FUCK DO YOU PRICE THE DOW IN EUROS?!?!?! Instead of admitting he made a bad call, he just posts the Dow in fucking Euros instead of admitting he screwed up. You're telling me i need to price all of my charts now in various foreign currencoes?

I cancelled my subscription after that whack off of a call.

You want more? Here's 238 pages of Armstrong's quackery calls laid out for you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.4740

More examples:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world...from-hell/

What happened in 2017? Nothing really. Merkel is still head of Germany and that granny fucker is head of France. Where was this massive civil unrest? Some soy boys and alt right tards making fools of themselves in select towns doesn't count asassive.

If anything, 2018 with the French gas protests has been more disruptive than anything that happened in the US.


Here are some more colorful failures:
Quote:Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 - today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is nohere near that. So both of these are way off base.

Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet. Notice how he calls this peak government now.

August 25, 2011 - Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend - Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower - but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after - nor has it 4.5 years later.

June 1, 2012 - Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis - in this case the exact opposite happened - Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.

November 2009 - "Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!" - 6 years later and no where near. No date and no timeframe means it's BS.

April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.

Dec 2012 - "The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570." - Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 - $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.

Oct 2013 - Gold's going to drop below $1000 - and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.

Aug 9, 2013 - "Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! - needless to say this wasn't even close to transpiring.

In 2013 - regarding the above DOW call: "Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015." but later stated ''$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.'' - so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.

September 14, 2014 - "Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?" - This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don't disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.

More recently:
"The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the finale


So presently, different from most of our researched analysts - Martin Armstrong is not feeding fantasies of an imminent rise in the Precious Metals - which, perhaps should be commended as he would probably get more subscribers supporting and trending the Goldbug's hopes. But it seems his, supposed, prescient calls from decades past, have not been supported with any recent calls that he can put on his resume. He seems as clueless as the rest. By making many varied calls perhaps he believes that one would stick to embolden his reputation - like a broken watch is right twice a day. I think the absolute best you can say about him now is that his colorful calls are way too early - OR at worst he should simply be ignored for any short term predictions.

Look mate, it sounds like his doom and gloom naval gazing appeals to you. But like Alex Jones, he's been predicting 50 of the last wars, recessions, and incorrect price swings. Except unlike Jones, he charges for the privilege of him being WRONG.
01-03-2019 11:55 PM
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SamuelBRoberts
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Post: #148
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-03-2019 06:34 PM)Walt_Heisenberg Wrote:  AAPL tanking today and taking the market with it is definitely alarming. Will more high profile companies follow with their own revised (down) guidance? Could be an ugly year and stay that way for several more. We could stagnate and face lower returns for an extend period of time. It has happened before and can happen again.

JayR, I should’ve mentioned that I too have a pretty decent 401k plan at work with a good company match. I contribute to that every paycheck so in that sense, I’m also DCA’ing and remain in the market. I’m 20+ years from retirement so hopefully things will work out long term.

But all my other money is in safe cash instruments. If you have a couple of monitors open and time to follow the markets, all this volatility is great, you can definitely make some $$ with short term trades using options, inverse ETFs, etc.

I suspect the volatility we are seeing from technology company stock is related to the coming-to-light of their fraudulent behavior. Facebook, Twitter, Google in particular have been defrauding their clientele (advertisers) for a long while now. I actually suspect that the way these things are coming to light now is an intentional act of self-immolation to harm the market (and Trump).
01-04-2019 01:59 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #149
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(01-04-2019 01:59 AM)demolition Wrote:  I suspect the volatility we are seeing from technology company stock is related to the coming-to-light of their fraudulent behavior. Facebook, Twitter, Google in particular have been defrauding their clientele (advertisers) for a long while now. I actually suspect that the way these things are coming to light now is an intentional act of self-immolation to harm the market (and Trump).

Another narrative guy who's sure he's got it all figured out. "Self-immolation". You mean Facebook is leaking bad news to tank its OWN stock price, to hurt Trump?

What's your average % return in the markets over the past 5 years?

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01-04-2019 02:05 AM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #150
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
GE Update:

My GE Jan 17, 2020, $15 Calls I paid 10 cents per call were up 108% to 23 cents this AM in less than one month - that's a 12 bagger+ on an annualized basis so I took profits and am holding the 15 centers as long one year fliers. I also have an open Calls order for the GE Jan 17, 2020, $15 Calls at a lowball of 5 cents per - in case any bad news comes out that causes excess volatility - honestly anything under 20 Cents right now for these Calls looking like longer 3 to 4 qtr buy.

https://marketrealist.com/2019/01/ge-rec...yptr=yahoo

GE Received Rating Upgrades from Top Research Firms
By Andrew Brunton
Jan 3, 2019 | 12:02 PM

JPMorgan ups rating
It seems that General Electric’s (GE) newly appointed CEO Larry Culp’s quick actions on implementing restructuring plans has helped the stock gain analyst confidence. In December 2018, GE received rating upgrades from analysts at two big firms, JPMorgan’s (JPM) Stephen Tusa and Vertical Research’s Jeffrey Sprague.

On December 13, the long-time bearish analyst, Tusa, upgraded his rating on GE stock to “neutral” from “underweight.” In a note to clients, Tusa wrote that the struggling company’s risk-reward looks to be balanced at current levels. However, the analyst maintains his previous target price of $6.00.

Justifying his rating upgrade, Tusa wrote, “We now believe a more negative outcome on these liabilities (equity dilution is one) is at least partially discounted, and it’s possible the company can execute its way through an elongated workout that limits near-term downside.”

The analyst had been bearish on GE since May 2016, raising questions about its earnings and future cash flow generation capabilities. At that time, he had also pointed out that the industrial conglomerate might cut dividends to improve its liquidity position. Over the past year, all of Tusa’s predictions about the stock have been true.

On November 9, Tusa cut his target price on GE by 40% to $6 from $10. At the time, Tusa argued that the company’s third-quarter 2018 quarterly results were worse than expected. He also pointed out that with rising liabilities, a weakening cash flow, a dismal EBITDA outlook, and troubled Power and Financial divisions, GE lacks a fundamental growth driver.

Therefore, a rating upgrade from the same analyst that has made accurate predictions in the past could help GE in gaining investor confidence.

Vertical Research raises target price:
GE got rating upgrade from another research firm within a week after Tusa upgraded his recommendation on the stock. On December 19, Vertical Research analyst Jeffrey Sprague upgraded his rating for the first time in ten years on the stock to “buy” from “hold” and raised the target price by $1.00 to $11.00. An institutional investor poll has awarded Sprague the top-ranked analyst several times.

In a note to clients, Sprague said GE would complete its restructuring plan, which includes exiting from Baker Hughes (BHGE), healthcare, transport, and other smaller businesses. He believes the company won’t face a severe liquidity crisis in the long run.

Sprague wrote, “While the work ahead is still hard, we think the lack of investor confidence will slowly subside.” He added, “New CEO Larry Culp has his hands full, but a talented outsider is what GE needs to fully break from the past.”

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has allocated 4.1% of its portfolio to the stock and 5.8% in GE competitor 3M Company (MMM).

GE -75%
XLI -50%
JPM -25%
MMM 0%
BHGE + 25%

Jul '18 to Jan '19

Friday, Mar 16, 2018● GE: 14.31● XLI: 76.58● JPM: 115.44● MMM: 237.22● BHGE: 30.92

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01-04-2019 12:05 PM
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