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Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
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Johnnyvee Offline
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Post: #1
Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
There seems to be a lot more negativity among locals in various popular tourist destinations towards foreigners these days. Popular Spanish destinations like Palma (Mallorca) and Magaluf on the mainland are cracking down on what they see as unacceptable behaviour. Not that tourists are acting worse than before, but the tolerance is reduced now. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/115...alma-hotel

Even Pattaya is seeing an exodus of expats it seems. The Thai Government has pretty much declared that they want to take the place back as a holiday spot for locals, and are pestering tourists. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEhf_O1XXs4

I think that this is a trend that will continue and be enhanced in the future. The 2015 migrant crisis might have been a trigger. But locals are also fed up of things like Airbnb driving up housing/rental costs, migrant workers reducing wages and stealing jobs, (In some countries at least) as well as overcrowding and lack of respect for the local culture and ways of doing things. The gravy train of faux EU money might also have something to do with it in southern Euro countries. Maybe they depend less on tourists now? There`s also this flight-shame phenomenon that supposedly started i Sweden, (sounds likely) where some folks are ashamed to fly due to the idea that it will promote unnecessary emissions and hence contribute towards global warming. I suspect that the time of budget airlines will soon also come to an end. (Which might be a net positive.)

For whatever reason(s), I think that mass tourism might be headed for a serious decline. For the reasons mentioned here and maybe other things as well. What do you guys think, and are there other elements at play here?

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 12:29 PM by Johnnyvee.)
07-26-2019 12:26 PM
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Solitaire Offline
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
I've been a travel nurse off & on for about sixteen years now. I've seen short-term rental prices skyrocket in the last five years. I took a two year break and lived down in Arizona with a crazy woman (long story with that wacko), when I showed back up to California in August 2017 to work again, everything was outrageously priced. I looked on airbnb again just recently and people are putting tents in their backyards and charging $50-60 a night.

As for tourists, well my little story won't shock anyone. It's a truism that Americans are the mongs of the tourism industry. I stayed for a month with my brother in Playa del Carmen just recently (medical tourism for myself). We went to Walmart there, was super busy with locals everywhere, lots of low volume background noise due to conversations. Cue the Americans practically yelling at one another, standing three feet away from each other. Over and over again. It was American tourists every time. Same thing on Fifth Ave, the beach, everywhere. Heavy sigh.
07-26-2019 12:59 PM
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Baron De Cyr Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Very interesting, i think you are on to something.
On the other hand, i feel with the rise of instagram travel celebs, there has been an over saturation in travel photos, people being inspired to go on vacation and even losing the sense of novelty about it.
I remember on dating apps like 5 years ago, telling girls about your travels was very wow to them. Now a days they hardly find it impressive as they've traveled too.
I think also we need to consider the costs of travel and the fact that today people are very comfortable living with debt, paying their inflated mortgage prices, and buying more things on credit to live a certain life style. Something is rotting at the core of our global economy
...oh and also fuck British tourists, they make everyone look bad
07-26-2019 01:00 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Maybe if the U.S. grows some balls and mass deportations occur then others like me will be incredibly less likely to expatriate to some place that isn't toxic and depressing.

Tourism is like some kind of checklist on instafart, its more of a chick thing now. Why do most people tour other countries? This was never a thing a thousand years ago or for most of human history, its like a fad now, because doing so in the way its encouraged destroys boundaries of cultural lines. The amount of imbeciles getting killed on social media because of this fad proves it. For some its economical and they rely on outside people's money to keep their country afloat (Greece right now unfortunately), but for most places they don't need tourists. I think part of tourism is negatively exploited for globalist purposes. I go for historical purposes mostly, and yes am still guilty of flag hunting, but if I met the right one I'd keep her.
07-26-2019 01:00 PM
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la bodhisattva Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
I wonder the stereotype of boorish, rude American tourists really just applies to any foreigner in any country. Locals in my Walmart and Target and Kroger aren't being boisterous or gaudy. I've never seen that behavior when out in the public (apart from the standard trashy types).

However, when I'm staying at a beach town in the American South, the only rude and loud people are the ones who are noticeably foreign or from the Northeast, primarily Quebec and to a lesser extent, New England (there aren't many assholes in Cape Hatteras or Hilton Head who from Charlotte or Atlanta).

For an American to be a foreign tourist, they almost always have to fly. That costs a decent amount. Every Dutch, Japanese, Brazilian, or whatever who sees an American in their country is invariably seeing a somewhat well-off individual. So I wonder if it is more attributable to the individual having the air of superiority that comes with wealth, or actual American behavior.

I just know it seems that the farther someone had to travel or the money it took to reach one's destination, the more annoying and entitled they appear.
07-26-2019 01:40 PM
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Syberpunk Offline
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 01:00 PM)Baron De Cyr Wrote:  On the other hand, i feel with the rise of instagram travel celebs, there has been an over saturation in travel photos, people being inspired to go on vacation and even losing the sense of novelty about it.
I remember on dating apps like 5 years ago, telling girls about your travels was very wow to them. Now a days they hardly find it impressive as they've traveled too.

Bang on here, I sometimes its killed my own sense of curiosity, like they've already mapped the world with social media, where's the allure now? If I couldn't see it so easily through social media, my imagination would drive to see what was like for myself. You're never the first there (or at least once you could have the fantasy), travelling used to be a fairly private thing.

Some cunts think they're Shackelton now.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 02:02 PM by Syberpunk.)
07-26-2019 02:02 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 12:59 PM)Solitaire Wrote:  I've been a travel nurse off & on for about sixteen years now. I've seen short-term rental prices skyrocket in the last five years. I took a two year break and lived down in Arizona with a crazy woman (long story with that wacko), when I showed back up to California in August 2017 to work again, everything was outrageously priced. I looked on airbnb again just recently and people are putting tents in their backyards and charging $50-60 a night.

As for tourists, well my little story won't shock anyone. It's a truism that Americans are the mongs of the tourism industry. I stayed for a month with my brother in Playa del Carmen just recently (medical tourism for myself). We went to Walmart there, was super busy with locals everywhere, lots of low volume background noise due to conversations. Cue the Americans practically yelling at one another, standing three feet away from each other. Over and over again. It was American tourists every time. Same thing on Fifth Ave, the beach, everywhere. Heavy sigh.

We are right back to mid-2000s financial exuberance. Hotel rooms downtown in my midwestern metropolis are once again hitting well over $200, even $300 a night. Everyone with a pulse is financing and leasing new cars. I'm currently in the job market and it's astonishing how many jobs, even skilled positions pay less than $20 an hour. The middle and working classes in the US have replaced wage growth with debt. Just in my own social circles, the majority of my friends are either propped up by parents/in-laws or essentially live off debt that will never re-paid. I know women that finance new cars and spend thousands a year on clothes, yet have 80k in student loan debt, delinquent bills stacked on their counter tops, and can barely scrape rent month to month. Of course their social media will always tell a vastly different tale, thanks to $90 Spirit Air deals, and endless high rate credit card offers.
07-26-2019 02:53 PM
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porscheguy Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
The market may evolve and change, but I don’t see it collapsing. There are still way too many people who love nothing more than traveling to exotic third world destinations so they can feel superior to not only the locals, but friends and family back home.
07-26-2019 03:55 PM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Bigger issues with the economy for a drop in tourism plus rising prices as a result of other factors. The world economy is chugging on fumes.

Places like Thailand are going to suffer because they're too ignorant to realise you should get it whilst you can and not discourage the $$$ flowing in. And I had a laugh at indian tourists increasing there. That is definitely a reason to not visit.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 03:57 PM by Foolsgo1d.)
07-26-2019 03:56 PM
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Post: #10
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 01:00 PM)Baron De Cyr Wrote:  Very interesting, i think you are on to something.
On the other hand, i feel with the rise of instagram travel celebs, there has been an over saturation in travel photos, people being inspired to go on vacation and even losing the sense of novelty about it.
I remember on dating apps like 5 years ago, telling girls about your travels was very wow to them. Now a days they hardly find it impressive as they've traveled too.
I think also we need to consider the costs of travel and the fact that today people are very comfortable living with debt, paying their inflated mortgage prices, and buying more things on credit to live a certain life style. Something is rotting at the core of our global economy
...oh and also fuck British tourists, they make everyone look bad

(07-26-2019 02:53 PM)sanbruno Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 12:59 PM)Solitaire Wrote:  I've been a travel nurse off & on for about sixteen years now. I've seen short-term rental prices skyrocket in the last five years. I took a two year break and lived down in Arizona with a crazy woman (long story with that wacko), when I showed back up to California in August 2017 to work again, everything was outrageously priced. I looked on airbnb again just recently and people are putting tents in their backyards and charging $50-60 a night.

We are right back to mid-2000s financial exuberance. Hotel rooms downtown in my midwestern metropolis are once again hitting well over $200, even $300 a night. Everyone with a pulse is financing and leasing new cars. I'm currently in the job market and it's astonishing how many jobs, even skilled positions pay less than $20 an hour. The middle and working classes in the US have replaced wage growth with debt. Just in my own social circles, the majority of my friends are either propped up by parents/in-laws or essentially live off debt that will never re-paid. I know women that finance new cars and spend thousands a year on clothes, yet have 80k in student loan debt, delinquent bills stacked on their counter tops, and can barely scrape rent month to month. Of course their social media will always tell a vastly different tale, thanks to $90 Spirit Air deals, and endless high rate credit card offers.

The current era of mass travel is partially due to the internet and social media making it easier to travel and inspiring more people to travel out of conformity. Ten years ago no one heard of Iceland but now it seems everyone is going there.

A big factor is the debt based economy. This won't last forever (either a major downturn and deleveraging will occur, or massive money printing and stagflation), and combined with rising nationalism and anti globalization sentiment, it will be very interesting to see where this ends up in 5-10 years.
07-26-2019 04:02 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
OP I'm not sure what you're talking about. Tourism is up across the board in recent years according to the World Tourism Organization.

Source: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419876
07-26-2019 04:19 PM
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Johnnyvee Offline
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 04:19 PM)zoom Wrote:  OP I'm not sure what you're talking about. Tourism is up across the board in recent years according to the World Tourism Organization.

Source: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419876

It`s a very early trend I would say. And I didn`t state that there was a drop in the number of tourists. There`s also regional differences at play here, and the negative sentiment might be more prominent in southern European countries than in say Colombia.

I think this trend will continue, and you will eventually see a drop in the commercial aviation based tourism that is substantial. Tourism has grown pretty much nonstop since the 1950s, and I just don`t see how it can continue. So it`s a prediction in a sense, rather than a statement of fact. And of course I could be wrong.

We will stomp to the top with the wind in our teeth.

George L. Mallory
07-26-2019 04:46 PM
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zoom Offline
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 04:46 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 04:19 PM)zoom Wrote:  OP I'm not sure what you're talking about. Tourism is up across the board in recent years according to the World Tourism Organization.

Source: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284419876

It`s a very early trend I would say. And I didn`t state that there was a drop in the number of tourists. There`s also regional differences at play here, and the negative sentiment might be more prominent in southern European countries than in say Colombia.

I think this trend will continue, and you will eventually see a drop in the commercial aviation based tourism that is substantial. Tourism has grown pretty much nonstop since the 1950s, and I just don`t see how it can continue. So it`s a prediction in a sense, rather than a statement of fact. And of course I could be wrong.

Fair enough, that's your opinion. I personally don't think aviation based tourism will stop until the next recession comes.
07-26-2019 04:49 PM
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Post: #14
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
The popular destinations will change. But I don't see any credible scenario where international tourism goes aways on a large scale.
07-26-2019 05:30 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
This is the normal ebb and flow of tourism. It happened with Spring Break destinations back in the 90s.

Daytona Beach residents got pissed off about drunk college kids and pressured the mayor to start strictly enforcing local ordinances. Residents also hated the spring breakers. The party slowly moved to the panhandle of Florida.

It looks like the same thing is happening in southern Europe. They'll just find another city or country.
07-26-2019 05:37 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
I noticed this in Thailand and Bali also.

It's like because of Globalism and the internet, these people in third world countries know that they have an opportunity to make money, and that wealth is not just confined to the west.

It's like they now think "why should I kiss your ass?"

Prices (food, drink, taxi etc) were also higher in BK than they were 10 years ago.

Africa looks likely as a good destination in the future.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 08:13 PM by Rorogue.)
07-26-2019 08:12 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 08:12 PM)Rorogue Wrote:  ...
Africa looks likely as a good destination in the future.

Just be mindful of the carjacking & machete wielding locals... [Image: Upside-smile.png]
07-26-2019 08:20 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 08:20 PM)CynicalContrarian Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 08:12 PM)Rorogue Wrote:  ...
Africa looks likely as a good destination in the future.

Just be mindful of the carjacking & machete wielding locals... [Image: Upside-smile.png]

These guys will instill some order.        
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 08:27 PM by Rorogue.)
07-26-2019 08:25 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 02:53 PM)sanbruno Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 12:59 PM)Solitaire Wrote:  I've been a travel nurse off & on for about sixteen years now. I've seen short-term rental prices skyrocket in the last five years. I took a two year break and lived down in Arizona with a crazy woman (long story with that wacko), when I showed back up to California in August 2017 to work again, everything was outrageously priced. I looked on airbnb again just recently and people are putting tents in their backyards and charging $50-60 a night.

As for tourists, well my little story won't shock anyone. It's a truism that Americans are the mongs of the tourism industry. I stayed for a month with my brother in Playa del Carmen just recently (medical tourism for myself). We went to Walmart there, was super busy with locals everywhere, lots of low volume background noise due to conversations. Cue the Americans practically yelling at one another, standing three feet away from each other. Over and over again. It was American tourists every time. Same thing on Fifth Ave, the beach, everywhere. Heavy sigh.

We are right back to mid-2000s financial exuberance. Hotel rooms downtown in my midwestern metropolis are once again hitting well over $200, even $300 a night. Everyone with a pulse is financing and leasing new cars. I'm currently in the job market and it's astonishing how many jobs, even skilled positions pay less than $20 an hour. The middle and working classes in the US have replaced wage growth with debt. Just in my own social circles, the majority of my friends are either propped up by parents/in-laws or essentially live off debt that will never re-paid. I know women that finance new cars and spend thousands a year on clothes, yet have 80k in student loan debt, delinquent bills stacked on their counter tops, and can barely scrape rent month to month. Of course their social media will always tell a vastly different tale, thanks to $90 Spirit Air deals, and endless high rate credit card offers.

Your post is 100% spot on.

Can you expand on the bolded part? I have a pretty good understanding of the market cycles and recessions but I never really considered wage stagnation as something that happens at the highs of exuberance. I was in grade 9 around 2008 so obviously my knowledge is now from experiencing it in real time.
07-26-2019 09:34 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Mainstream tourist places will die from over saturation as they are cheapened and tank in value as costs rise and quality goes south as well. Newer places will rise to take the former places. Toursim only takes a nosedive if oil and fuel prices shoot up or there is another recession bin the West.

My guess is there you'll simply see a swap of locals of people who are Eastern versus Western. If Russians like to go beach or in Turkey you'll see Westerners start to flock there as well. There are many "popular" tourist places that are not in the typical Western rotation that will become mainstream.

Also, new groups will flock to the first mainstream places I mentioned. Let us not forget that majority not Americans still don't have a passport.

Plus, there are now gains among groups who typically never traveled much abroad for tourism. An example is African-American women who are some of the least traveled are now one of the fastest growing travel segments.
07-26-2019 09:56 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-26-2019 03:56 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  Bigger issues with the economy for a drop in tourism plus rising prices as a result of other factors. The world economy is chugging on fumes.

Places like Thailand are going to suffer because they're too ignorant to realise you should get it whilst you can and not discourage the $$$ flowing in. And I had a laugh at indian tourists increasing there. That is definitely a reason to not visit.

Rich Indians to the rescue as Chinese tourists shun Thailand


[Image: bp_thailandtourism_080719_52.jpg?itok=1b...1562552210]

Quote:BANGKOK (BLOOMBERG) - Thailand's struggling tourism industry is finding support with visitors from the population colossus to its west, just as the years of bumper arrivals from the giant to its north are beginning to wane.

At a beachfront hotel on the tropical island of Phuket, the occupancy rate from Chinese clientele has stalled, while bookings from India have begun to rise.


The Vijitt Resort is one of many in Thailand that has more cause for optimism.

"We're starting to see new growth," said Mr Kongsak Khoopongsakorn, Vijitt's general manager and vice-president of the Thai Hotels Association.

"Indians are now driving industry growth like the Chinese had previously done."

What's happening to Thai tourism could prove a canary in the coal mine for the leisure sector in other Asian economies as China matures and a new India emerges.

The Thai industry had been expanding at about about 10 per cent a year on escalating inbound Chinese arrivals, but a 2018 boat accident in Phuket that killed dozens of mainlanders and a slowing economy at home have triggered a drop in numbers.

In contrast, Indian arrivals accelerated in recent months due to more direct flights, a visa waiver and, most importantly, increasing wealth.


The rapid expansion of the middle class among India's 1.3 billion people has prompted Thai authorities to upgrade their estimates of Indian visitors.

At least 10 million are now expected to arrive in 2028, a more than five-fold increase on 2018 visits. That sort of growth trajectory would mimic the rise of Chinese tourists, who jumped from 800,000 in 2008 to more than 10 million last year.

Although China will remain an important market, it is likely to offer less growth potential in the years ahead. India, meanwhile, is set to become the new expansion story in Thai tourism, an industry that accounts for about 20 per cent of gross domestic product.

Chinese visitors currently make up 28 per cent of total foreign arrivals, well ahead of Indians at 4 per cent. But within a decade, Indian arrivals are forecast to surge to about 15 per cent of the total, while Chinese are predicted to edge up to about 30 per cent.

"The Indian inbound market could potentially rival that of China," said Mr Pisit Puapan, executive director of the Finance Ministry's Macroeconomic Policy Bureau. He said high growth from India has also helped offset a decline from markets like Europe.

Thailand received about 180,000 Indian tourists in June, a record, the Tourism Ministry reported last week. It also said Indians spend 11 per cent more per trip than average foreign visitors.


Chinese arrivals could actually fall this year from 2018, as the yuan has weakened against the baht, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That might deter more cost-conscious Chinese tourists, or see them spend less if they do make the trip.

A cooling tourism market and dividend repatriation combined to help produce Thailand's first current account deficit since 2014. The country's forecast economic growth has already been revised down to the lowest level in four years as exports also fizzled.

FREQUENT FLYER

There are more direct flights between Indian and Thai cities, one reason for the jump in visitors to Bangkok, Phuket and surrounding areas. They are drawn by Thailand's food and shopping, and its beaches are emerging as significant attractions.

India's fifth-largest airline GoAirlines India currently connects three Indian cities to Phuket, and plans to add seven more. InterGlobe Aviation's IndiGo launched services to the tropical island late last year.

Thai AirAsia, the kingdom's largest low-cost carrier, recorded 20 per cent growth in passengers travelling between India and Thailand in the first quarter of 2019 from a year earlier. It now operates 47 flights a week from Bangkok to nine Indian cities, and said it plans to add an additional destination.


With India projected to overtake China as the world's most populous nation in eight years, and its middle class forecast to keep expanding, Thai Hotels Association's Mr Kongsak is cautious but hopeful about the future.

"We expect the industry will continue to grow," he said. "But it's important to spread the risk and have a good nationality mix in the market. We can't rely on any single market."
07-26-2019 11:00 PM
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RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
I’ve always used the mass tourism question as a template. The same people who would oppose profit destroying communities and the environment with mass tourism often support mass immigration and scream “No borders!”

Yes many British tourists are badly behaved in Spain but on the other hand global finance’s Pakistani migrants and self ghettoised populations are even worse in places like Rotherham.
07-27-2019 12:57 AM
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Post: #23
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Tourism can go toxic on a place, and i think people are waking up to that. Cities like Vienna, Dubrovnik, even Prague and Barcelona have had their souls ripped out by it in recent years. Globalisation has brought mass tourism to industrial levels, and it's destroying the charm and the old life of many cities.

The thing that always made me sad is how tourists treat destinations now. With smartphones, cameras and modern gadgetry, it's like they just use these beautiful old European cities as merely backdrops for documenting their own narcissistic online projects. You'd see them everywhere just taking endless fucking photographs, doing V-logs, shooting videos... all just screaming out to the world "Look at my life!!! It's interesting!!! I'm happy and fulifilled!!! And interesting and well rounded!!!! Cant you see all the places i visit!!!". They use these places as film sets for their ego gratification. "me on this bridge will look great for my Tinder!" It's weirdly vampiric. Then you see the couples taking endless pictures on separate cameras, then go into a cafe or bar, and just go thru all the pictures theyve taken, occasionally passing their device over for approval.... When do they just have a fucking laugh... I dunno, maybe i'm an old fart, but it just seems so joyless...

Before the digital camera/social media age, you'd get to a main square and sit in a bar or street cafe, have a beer and soak it all in. Now it just seems endless documenting, and city breaks for some have become a 'social proof acquisition raid'.
07-27-2019 01:10 AM
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nixtnext Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
Mass tourism if anything is on the rise. Not only is travel and accommodation easier than ever thanks to the Internet but we also have large previously-poorer populations such as China and India having more and more disposable income for this sort of stuff.
07-27-2019 01:55 AM
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Rorogue Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Is the age of mass commercial tourism coming to an end?
(07-27-2019 01:55 AM)nixtnext Wrote:  Mass tourism if anything is on the rise. Not only is travel and accommodation easier than ever thanks to the Internet but we also have large previously-poorer populations such as China and India having more and more disposable income for this sort of stuff.


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(This post was last modified: 07-27-2019 02:01 AM by Rorogue.)
07-27-2019 01:59 AM
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