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Making Money Your big bets for 2019-2020?
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Nolimitz Offline
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Post: #1
Your big bets for 2019-2020?
You have $20k-$30k cash for a speculative bet..where would you roll the dice?

Stock, Gold, silver, bitcoin, alt coin, you can only choose one.

A lot of hype around precious metals right now (ie silver).
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 05:48 PM by Nolimitz.)
08-08-2019 05:44 PM
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[email protected] Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
If I can only change one, Bitcoin. Probably goes to 50-100k before end of 2020. That's a much better theoretical return than gold or silver. Altcoins may get better returns better than Bitcoin but difficult to predict. Altcoins might be dead or come back alive when Bitcoin goes over 20k.
08-08-2019 06:38 PM
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SilentOne Online
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
If we talking about big bets, you might as well join in the bitcoin train. That thing is so volatile.
08-08-2019 07:45 PM
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godzilla Offline
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
I think we on the verge of something worse than the 2007 crisis. Might take a little time to play out. Best to stay diversified at all times. You never really know what central banks will.

These are my investments in a nutshell.

Horrible long term bet, but if we are just talking the next year, I've been long treasuries for a few weeks now, working pretty well. Think this trade will work until the fed drops rates to zero. Like I said ONLY a trade. Yields are fucking terrible.

I own a little gold as well. Central banks all over the world having been cutting rates too. A lot of buying in gold so far this year.

Best to own some stock too, you never know what central banks will do. A big slice is dedicated KO and very little is in smaller tech company.

Always have CASH. You'll need to buy assets on sale.

I don't own Bitcoin but I think Bitcoin will do well. It's starting to best seen as store of value for many and not a speculative investment. On the other hand, I'm super negative on many of these altcoins. Many of them are vastly under-performing Bitcoin over the last year. I don't think there is enough room for this many non-asset backed coins on internet. Like a lot of new industries, (think tech in 2000) there is usually a big wash out of some of the weak players before the rest of the industry takes off. Many of the best/first coins will survive and will do ok.

Keep in mind, in 2008, the only investment that really went up was treasuries, even though the US Debt is horrible, it is a safety trade. During a liquidity crisis, people will sell assets to raise cash, so even Gold and Crypto might go down for at least a little while. I expect everything to do down during the next crisis
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 07:56 PM by godzilla.)
08-08-2019 07:54 PM
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[email protected] Offline
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
The Yield Curve has been an accurate predictor of a recession for a long time now. Everyone can see its inverted and a recession will come in the very close future (within 12 months?).



In 2008 gold went to $1162 in March then dropped to $864 by October. By Feb 2009 the price recovered to $1150. By Nov 2009 price was $1392.

It's all here:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histori...year-chart

Gold may repeat the same pattern and some notable technical analysts have suggested Bitcoin will behave similarly. I like gold but the gains have not been as good as Bitcoin and evidence suggest to me that Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and may continue to do so.
08-09-2019 01:41 AM
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Jaydublin Offline
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
^^^. I think the high for gold in 2008 was 1030 or so sometime in March or April. And the low was in the 600s after the market crash. I remember because I was a Peter Schiff nut back then and followed the gold/silver markets daily.

Edit: the link you provided confirms.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 10:30 AM by Jaydublin.)
08-09-2019 10:29 AM
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Kangaroo Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
Team bitcoin
08-09-2019 10:54 AM
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
Gold but by then it will be way too late. My speculative bet is dont expose myself in the gambling market.
08-09-2019 12:57 PM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
I would go with Gold and Silver. Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash could also be good bets but I'm not as confident in cryptos because the market is so erratic.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 02:31 PM by zoom.)
08-09-2019 02:18 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
My plan is simple take intraday profits out of the S&P Futures until the market changes trend to a point where the Fed and PPT can no longer support the markets and then go short once the trend changes from UP to Down (Crosses the 200 Week Moving Average like 2008/09 - diversifying into Gold, Silver (Been Buying pre-1964 Silver circulated for Silver Content Value and then some Mint and Proof Sets and Brilliant Uncirculated 1oz US Silver Eagles and Can/Oz 1oz .999 and .9999 content silver coins and a few 1 oz .999 blanks and ingots about $10K worth which can easily be sold on ebay etc via paypal when $$$ value continues to rise), TIAAbank Baskets of Commodity Currencies, some of Schiffs emerging markets funds, a small Organic Farm and desirable AirBnB Ocean or Lake community rentals as the Boomers who everyone loves to hate on here are benefitting from their massive wealth inheritances from the Greatest Generation - so Boomer Vacation and even better 2nd Home Hot Spots in New England like the Maine/NH Coastline, Maine and NH Lakes, Mountains, Cape Ann, Cape Cod, and the Islands will provide a lucrative quality of life in retirement, perhaps rent a monthly AirBnB snow bird rental in different parts of Florida until I can find a spot not overrun by Northern liberals and low IQ invaders.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/0...50-5-Wave/

The past week's so-called CNBC China Currency Devaluation Panic was an expected simple short term A-B-C wave retracement from the 10 year long 5 Wave All Time High at 3029.50... Still in a 10 Year Bull Market.


###

Deepdiver the OG Hunter-Killer ... NBF - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Donald John Trump's real achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
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The Naked Communists 45 Goals for the USA:
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(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 03:54 PM by Deepdiver.)
08-09-2019 03:49 PM
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Post: #11
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
(08-09-2019 01:41 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  The Yield Curve has been an accurate predictor of a recession for a long time now. Everyone can see its inverted and a recession will come in the very close future (within 12 months?).



In 2008 gold went to $1162 in March then dropped to $864 by October. By Feb 2009 the price recovered to $1150. By Nov 2009 price was $1392.

It's all here:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histori...year-chart

Gold may repeat the same pattern and some notable technical analysts have suggested Bitcoin will behave similarly. I like gold but the gains have not been as good as Bitcoin and evidence suggest to me that Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and may continue to do so.

There have been 2 "yield curve" moments screamed from the rooftops since last year --- late March of this year, early December of last. I can't seem to make sense of which they want to use though, the 3 month and 10 year or the 2 year and 10 year. Oh yeah, we've never done this worldwide MMT thing either, have we? Ahh, I see. Yes, a recession is coming but this yield business means nothing. I don't see any economic indicators showing that the US will hit a recession, still. I give it at least another couple of years, but then again, what are we defining as recession? A market drop of 20% right now would still be thousands over the market level when Trump won the election in 2016, around 19k. Even if this does mean something, it still fits with my post Trump term 2 election hiccup.

Capital flight is continuing into the US. The Fed will worry people with more rate cuts, from a debt and recession inducing point of view, and they can't win = they lose "fix-it" power by lowering rates when we haven't hit the recession yet (less bullets in the chamber) and if they raise rates the media will go crazy on why raising rates into this type of MMT environment will CAUSE a recession.

I see dollar rising, gold rising, BTC really rising, and stocks super volatile but reaching 29k before they lose more than 10% from today's levels.

OP, yes, my play of all those choices would be BTC by far. But I'd have an exit strategy in mind since it is so volatile and exuberant.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 06:14 PM by Kid Twist.)
08-09-2019 06:12 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
(08-09-2019 03:49 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  My plan is simple take intraday profits out of the S&P Futures until the market changes trend to a point where the Fed and PPT can no longer support the markets and then go short once the trend changes from UP to Down (Crosses the 200 Week Moving Average like 2008/09 - diversifying into Gold, Silver (Been Buying pre-1964 Silver circulated for Silver Content Value and then some Mint and Proof Sets and Brilliant Uncirculated 1oz US Silver Eagles and Can/Oz 1oz .999 and .9999 content silver coins and a few 1 oz .999 blanks and ingots about $10K worth which can easily be sold on ebay etc via paypal when $$$ value continues to rise), TIAAbank Baskets of Commodity Currencies, some of Schiffs emerging markets funds, a small Organic Farm and desirable AirBnB Ocean or Lake community rentals as the Boomers who everyone loves to hate on here are benefitting from their massive wealth inheritances from the Greatest Generation - so Boomer Vacation and even better 2nd Home Hot Spots in New England like the Maine/NH Coastline, Maine and NH Lakes, Mountains, Cape Ann, Cape Cod, and the Islands will provide a lucrative quality of life in retirement, perhaps rent a monthly AirBnB snow bird rental in different parts of Florida until I can find a spot not overrun by Northern liberals and low IQ invaders.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/0...50-5-Wave/

The past week's so-called CNBC China Currency Devaluation Panic was an expected simple short term A-B-C wave retracement from the 10 year long 5 Wave All Time High at 3029.50... Still in a 10 Year Bull Market.


###

I hope no here buys any of Schiff's emerging markets fund. The guy was right about the housing crisis but if he wasn't popular he'd be one of the biggest snake oil salesman in the planet.

His EM funds are garbage. Some have LOST money over the last years and have the HIGH fees.

Don't trust me, just see for yourself.

He's outperform the index here only because the index is the MSCI EM Index which is weighted toward large cap companies

Small Cap EM

Both have LOST money

International Dividend

International Value
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 06:28 PM by godzilla.)
08-09-2019 06:27 PM
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Jaydublin
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
(08-09-2019 06:27 PM)godzilla Wrote:  I hope no here buys any of Schiff's emerging markets fund. The guy was right about the housing crisis but if he wasn't popular he'd be one of the biggest snake oil salesman in the planet.

His EM funds are garbage. Some have LOST money over the last years and have the HIGH fees.

Don't trust me, just see for yourself.

He's outperform the index here only because the index is the MSCI EM Index which is weighted toward large cap companies

Small Cap EM

Both have LOST money

International Dividend

International Value

You're too kind.

Yea he called the housing crisis but his clients lost a ton of money in the process. Most lost more than anybody invested in the USA and he didn't catch the recovery outside of the 2010-2011 precious metals boom which i highly doubt he sold into. Quite a few of the companies he pushed on clients went bankrupt int he 2008 crash.

I had a small 5 figure account with him back then. I was in my early 20s. The 4 positions they had me in all either went bankrupt or are still lower today than they were when we bought in... in early 2008.

Regardless, I still like to listen to this quack. He is entertaining and I think he is correct with many things but I don't usually pay attention to his investment advice.
08-09-2019 09:42 PM
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CaptainChardonnay Away
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Post: #14
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
You're thinking too much about making money whereas instead you should be thinking about how best to not loose any of your capital.

If you want to roll the dice then go to the casino, you'll get an answer a lot faster and more of a thrill out of the experience.

Are you serious about making money or are you just looking for an emotional rush?

A lot of hype around silver? Why? What moves silver? What moves gold? Ask yourself theses questions and come to a logical conclusion. Base your actions on your logical conclusions surrounding which ever instrument you are most interested in. Start with a demo account. Using your conclusions and see how the market reacted and then adjust accordingly.

Also remember to do the exact opposite of what everyone else is thinking.
08-10-2019 12:04 AM
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Post: #15
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
I'm going to stick with what worked for me in 2010-11, Real Estate.

Saving money to buy up inventory and homes being purchased by first time homeowners who cant afford them once again.
08-10-2019 01:11 AM
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Post: #16
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
I'm long bonds, gold and bitcoin.
08-10-2019 01:51 AM
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[email protected] Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
If I had to make the bet right now, I'd go with gold. It's the major (i.e. high per-unit price, as opposed to silver) physical asset that remains relatively stable over time.

But then once the economy recesses again, as it very likely will in the next few months, I'll liquidate and move it all into stocks.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.
08-15-2019 11:48 AM
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Post: #18
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
Pot stocks.

I think legalization will become a campaign issue. Basically leave it to each state to decide

But that will companies list on US exchanges and then institutions can buy them
08-15-2019 11:58 AM
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Post: #19
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
My big bet is keeping my money liquid for the next crash.

The bull market won't last forever...
08-15-2019 01:56 PM
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Emancipator Offline
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
My current bet (that has paid off well for myself so far, initiated early this year) is on Axsome Therapeutics. Lots of promise on their use of DXM (recreational using it is similar to Ketamine) for MDD. Phase 3 of trials start soon I believe.

With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)

In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.

Riding it out with house money at this point.

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(This post was last modified: 08-15-2019 04:12 PM by Emancipator.)
08-15-2019 04:12 PM
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
(08-15-2019 04:12 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  My current bet (that has paid off well for myself so far, initiated early this year) is on Axsome Therapeutics. Lots of promise on their use of DXM (recreational using it is similar to Ketamine) for MDD. Phase 3 of trials start soon I believe.

With clown world a lot of normies turn to doctors to voice their displeasure with the current world and get slapped with a psych disorder, then get hopped up on old sole SSRIs (ineffective with a bunch of negative side effects). Current trend is to develop non sole-SSRI medications, with many turning to recreational drugs for inspiration, especially with the dissociates class NMDA receptor antagonist (Eskatamine being approved this year by the FDA for example)

In general am a fan of any pharma company that turns to known recreational drugs for products then come up with a way to legally sell it to "treat" something. Often they can get away with stupid high prices as well (take for example Jazz Pharma that makes billions selling Xyrem (GHB) legally for Narcolepsy, and that's extremely niche). Often can just research user reports online on various forums.

Riding it out with house money at this point.

I suspect the marijuana legalization train is a long term threat to psychiatric pharma cash cows. Psych drugs and cannabis compete for the numerous patients whose complaint takes the form "I'm miserable, and I care deeply about it." Psych drugs attack either part of that complaint with varying degrees of efficacy. Cannabis attacks the caring about it with a high degree of efficacy.

Companies working on the recreational to therapeutic niche tend to see their products hit with profound regulatory handicaps in the US. Yes, one firm got approval to market the S enantiomer of Ketamine approved for MDD, but to receive esketamine the patients have to go to an office to have it administered ensuring it will never be popular in the way blockbusters like Prozac, valproate, or Seroquel were.

If you are comfortable with the risk, keep going but do follow the news. If the Phase 3 trials are good (very probable), you may want to exit your position before approval which will likely come with absolutely oppressive rules for prescribers.
08-16-2019 01:06 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
Yield on the 10 year treasury is going a lot lower...at least until it all blows up.

08-17-2019 10:02 AM
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CaptainChardonnay Away
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
Stocks are down 2.8% after a 10 year bull run and all of a sudden everyone's a yield curve expert lol. Do you understand why yields are inverting? Its because a massive number of people are lining up around the block to buy long term US bonds and the supply does not equal the demand pushing the price up and thus the interest rate down. This basically means that the rate does not need to be high because higher rates are meant to entice buyers, if there are many buyers then the rate drops.

Do massive amounts of people trying to get US bonds sound like the US economy is weak or in trouble?

Right now the US economy is incredibly strong that everyone wants to purchase USD because it has the highest predicted rate of ROI.

The reason Trump wants the FED to drop interest rates is to weaken the dollar making the US more competitive against currency manipulators such as China and Europe. A strong dollar means less exports and more imports.
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2019 11:21 AM by CaptainChardonnay.)
08-18-2019 11:09 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
^^ So Trump is mad that China is supposedly manipulating their currency and yet he expects the FED to manipulate the USD? The guy is a clown.

The yield-curve predicted the last 5 recessions. We're definitely due for a recession in this debt-fueled economy and the most recent jobs reports have not been good, despite how Kudlow and the Trump administration wants to spin it.
08-18-2019 01:42 PM
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CaptainChardonnay Away
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RE: Your big bets for 2019-2020?
The trick to this stuff is to do the opposite of what everyone else thinks. Good luck with your investments.
08-18-2019 02:35 PM
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