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Hong Kong protests 2019
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mikado Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
You should read the articles I provided you. Granted they are in French, but you can Google Translate it.

Anyway life is good, and Marine will NOT be president, and Brexit will fail. Like it or not.

Now if you want we can go back to the Hong Kong issue, if you want.

Je suis le roi du monde!!!
08-13-2019 02:25 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 02:16 PM)mikado Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:10 PM)911 Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:02 PM)mikado Wrote:  Funny that the police is always blamed whereas the violences commited by the protestors get swept under the rug.

Case in point: Bienvenuto's response above.
Read the part about the black blocs again please. Thank you.

The Black Block are antifa trotskyiste scum who are working hand in glove with the Macron goons to sow chaos and discredit the nationalist Gilet Jaune movement. I doubt your IQ is actually low enough to not be aware of this. At least, I think not.

Possible, and very likely. However it's not our business to sort this out. The Gilets Jaunes can handle this problem, for all I care. The only thing that matters is that the Gilets Jaunes failed us economically. Which is, ironically, what they were protesting against.

...

What a load of crap, the Gilets Jaunes are actually fighting against the leaches that have been sucking the French economy dry for the last several decades. And of course some of the worst economic leaches are immigrants from Africa, which the oligarchs have been using against the natives, opening up mass immigration from the third world in a country with 6 million unemployed.

For all the problems that are getting built up about turmoil in Hong Kong, China will never have to deal with the kind of treasonous Kalergist oligarch class that deeply hates the middle class and traditions of their host countries.

λ ό γ ο ς
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 02:30 PM by 911.)
08-13-2019 02:26 PM
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Guys, take the french bullshit to its relevant thread.
This thread is about Hong Kong and China.
Stay on topic.
08-13-2019 02:31 PM
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mikado Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 02:26 PM)911 Wrote:  It's not even true, the Gilets Jaunes are actually fighting against the leaches that have been sucking the French economy dry for the last several decades. And of course some of the worst economic leaches are immigrants from Africa, which the oligarchs have been using against the natives, opening up mass immigration from the third world in a country with 6 million unemployed.

For all the problems that are getting built up about turmoil in Hong Kong, China will never have to deal with the kind of treasonous Kalergist oligarch class that deeply hates the middle class and traditions of their host countries.


In fine it's not about whether you are right or not, my point is that your message will get lost if you convey it by destroying the businesses of people who are trying to get by, instead of the very people you should be fighting against.

When the Gilets Jaunes were sitting peacefully at the rond-points, they had support. That support vanished when they forced businesses to close.

Similarly, Hong Kong is supported because insofar they did not make people lose their jobs and their life (yet).

Got my point?

The day HongKongans cannot work anymore without fearing their business is gonna get blown off, these protests will diminish.

That's what I meant to say.


Case in point: farmers protesting against the CETA, an agreement that should benefit YOUR COUNTRY, 911. They are protesting by putting litteral shit in front of offices of parliament members from the Macron majority. THAT is something that can get by.


PS: sorry Caduceus. Back to topic from now.

Je suis le roi du monde!!!
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 02:35 PM by mikado.)
08-13-2019 02:32 PM
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Global times (official mainland chinese government news outlet) released a short video yesterday showing (and I quote directly from their official youtube account) "People's Armed Police assembling in Shenzhen apparently for exercises" , complete with dramatic music added on top.



08-13-2019 02:44 PM
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Bienvenuto Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 02:31 PM)Caduceus Wrote:  Guys, take the french bullshit to its relevant thread.
This thread is about Hong Kong and China.
Stay on topic.

Shenzhen is still Shenzhen.

The rioters are in Lantau and places like Central.
The army would still have to cross the border and roll through the New territories to take up positions.

I think the Chinese would be fucking dumb to do a Tianamen or a Lhasa 1950 here.

It just isn't needed.

The video is perfect sabre rattling for the Chinese without actually doing anything.

Listening to Trump talk to the press he seems pretty relaxed on the HK issue.

Its about spheres of influence.

HK is in China. Thats it.
Nothing America can do.

When the Reds were stirring up the HK Chinese in 67, a British general said phlegmatically "If the PLA invades Hong Kong, the Crown's resistance (Regiments of Marines and Gurkhas stationed there) would last about 3 minutes."

If the Chinese are smart they will have studied how the Brits rode that one out, all with limited manpower.

There's no need for massive reinforcements or crackdowns.

When PLA elements first moved into Hong Kong in 1997 they were pretty much confined to barracks and kept away from the HK Chinese. The CCP understood the optics.

As for Trump and the US' potential actions.
This is in China's ball park.
Kalergi Zionist Shapiro rattling on about "providing support to rebels". Fucks sake. See how that worked out for the Russians trying to move missiles into Cuba - on the US doorstep.
08-13-2019 02:52 PM
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mikado Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 02:52 PM)Bienvenuto Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:31 PM)Caduceus Wrote:  Guys, take the french bullshit to its relevant thread.
This thread is about Hong Kong and China.
Stay on topic.

Shenzhen is still Shenzhen.

The rioters are in Lantau and places like Central.
The army would still have to cross the border and roll through the New territories to take up positions.

I think the Chinese would be fucking dumb to do a Tianamen or a Lhasa 1950 here.

It just isn't needed.

The video is perfect sabre rattling for the Chinese without actually doing anything.

Listening to Trump talk to the press he seems pretty relaxed on the HK issue.

Its about spheres of influence.

HK is in China. Thats it.
Nothing America can do.

When the Reds were stirring up the HK Chinese in 67, a British general said phlegmatically "If the PLA invades Hong Kong, the Crown's resistance (Regiments of Marines and Gurkhas stationed there) would last about 3 minutes."

If the Chinese are smart they will have studied how the Brits rode that one out, all with limited manpower.

There's no need for massive reinforcements or crackdowns.

When PLA elements first moved into Hong Kong in 1997 they were pretty much confined to barracks and kept away from the HK Chinese. The CCP understood the optics.

As for Trump and the US' potential actions.
This is in China's ball park.
Kalergi Zionist Shapiro rattling on about "providing support to rebels". Fucks sake. See how that worked out for the Russians trying to move missiles into Cuba - on the US doorstep.

Is it impossible for Hong Kong to back down from the 1997 deal?
Did the majority of the population want it?

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08-13-2019 03:05 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
@ Bienvenuto

That is propaganda but they have been training troops to suppress these protests for some time now but they need to move the manpower into position and they will move them across broders. They will target the media and methods of broadcasting out to the world soon before any major crackdown.

They are also trying to cover it up on big websites like reddit. They dont do that for mere propaganda purposes.
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 03:22 PM by Foolsgo1d.)
08-13-2019 03:22 PM
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 02:52 PM)Bienvenuto Wrote:  Shenzhen is still Shenzhen.

The rioters are in Lantau and places like Central.
The army would still have to cross the border and roll through the New territories to take up positions.


Yes, that is true but most people forget the Chinese People's Liberation army already has over 5000 troops in Hong Kong since the handover in 1997. They are stationed in a massive garrison in the admirality/central area on Hong Kong island.


...
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 03:35 PM by Caduceus.)
08-13-2019 03:33 PM
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Bienvenuto Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-13-2019 03:05 PM)mikado Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:52 PM)Bienvenuto Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:31 PM)Caduceus Wrote:  Guys, take the french bullshit to its relevant thread.
This thread is about Hong Kong and China.
Stay on topic.

Shenzhen is still Shenzhen.

The rioters are in Lantau and places like Central.
The army would still have to cross the border and roll through the New territories to take up positions.

I think the Chinese would be fucking dumb to do a Tianamen or a Lhasa 1950 here.

It just isn't needed.

The video is perfect sabre rattling for the Chinese without actually doing anything.

When PLA elements first moved into Hong Kong in 1997 they were pretty much confined to barracks and kept away from the HK Chinese. The CCP understood the optics.

Is it impossible for Hong Kong to back down from the 1997 deal?
Did the majority of the population want it?

5000 troops and so far they are still keeping their heads down. Which is my point.

China are trying to find the balance between ineffectual HK riot police wrestling with millennials and using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

My hunch is that if they slightly escalate and use existing PLA to bolster HK police suppression it could be a red rag to a bull for the millennials.

And my hunch is that the CCP DON'T actually want that escalation.

To be honest Mikado I would defer to people like Aquarius on this one.
The 1997 agreement was good but it just pushed the crunch point 50 years down the track.
I think that everyone knew that China would chip away and chip away and chip away in the meantime.
There's no trust in the CCP. Only wariness of a chess opponent.

Whats interesting is the conduct of UK politician Chris Patten as HK governor in the run up to handover in 1997.

The job of HK governor had always been a largely anonymous one and something that sets up a knighthood and entry perhaps as part of the Knights of the Order of the Garter and all that crap but .. no-one in the UK could ever name an HK governor.

A few months out he draped himself metaphorically in the flag of liberty and justice and acted like a complete diva - taking the CCP to task and claiming to be fighting for those poor HK Chinese.
Shameless self promotion in the name of Truth and Justice. Although he did at least turn a greater spotlight on what was at stake.

The British in their living rooms loved his 'heroism' on TV. The HK Chinese looked at their shoes.

The time for doing that was in the months and years before.. not at the last minute.

And no one in the UK government had cared about the welfare of the (then) 6.5 million HK Chinese for decades.
The walled city, the sweatshops, the Triads dominance of whole sections of society.. I was there in 1989 and Aberdeen harbour was full of families living in tiny fishing boats and shitting bare assed into the water, looking down off the pavement in Central there were basements full of men living in cages.
Laissez faire capitalism.

the UK didn't give a shit.

I think HK Chinese actually have more political rights now than they did under the British.

Like 67 this is another crunch point in HK history.

Foolsgold points out that the CCP are ready to crush this.
Of course they could.
But do they want to?
Asia Baller makes a good point - do they appear weak? or do they go overboard and earn the condemnation of the world?
Which is what I think the pictures of the convoys are about - everyone in China remembers the "Green Snake" rolling into Tibet and Xinjiang.
They know what it means.

So China is being clear that it is strong whilst, so far, holding back.
This is a game of chess.

Because as Aquarius says this is more about the pent up anger of a generation who last time around went about things very irresponsibly and lost the support of their fellow citizens.
Many see them as not serious and just seeking to martyr themselves to a cause.
Trying to take on the CCP head on is "like throwing eggs at a wall."
And not taking onboard the fact they are fucking up the human rights struggle of their fellow, if more mild, citizens.
A middle aged mother of 3 or a 56 year old truck driver working overtime needs someone to fight their cause.

This is a game of chess.
They need a good player contesting on their behalf.

The question is.. are the Millennials playing chess as everyone else is? Or are they just draping themselves in a flag and carrying on like a pork chop a la last time around?
08-14-2019 01:35 AM
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Transsimian Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
CIA conspiracy theory
There's a big theory circulating around the Communist Chinese internet that the CIA are the main cause of the protests based on some visibly non-Chinese interacting with some of the protesters and the CIA's usual procedure for regime change. Here's the original post

There's lots of people talking about how violent the protests are, but almost none of them asking why. They seem to see it as 'China' under attack.
Here's a good translated synopsis

As to the question if the PRC will do a Tiananmen, I think it is very unlikely. The scaredest dog barks the loudest, and the propaganda and massing of military and paramilitary in Shenzhen is just an intimidation tactic. The leader of the Tiananmen crackdown died this month, Li Peng but no active politicians went to his funeral. It'd hurt China's reputation far too much.

As for the endgame to this whole thing, I really don't know. The proposed law will naturally fall of the agenda in a few months with the closing of the assembly, so that would be a likely cooldown. If it keeps up until the Taiwan elections though, it'll be a big boost to anti-Beijing parties.
Carrie Lam doesn't have the power to withdraw it, as we can tell from her expression in this video.



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08-15-2019 02:38 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Obviously the local Chinese hate communist China and they don't want to lose the old Western freedoms and relative ability to operate freely, to protest against corruption etc.

Though I agree with 911 that the Chinese government has far more restraint than the globohomos in France. It will pass and unfortunately they are fighting a losing game anyway. And sure - there may be some idiots among the protesters, but the reasons are valid and proper for it all.
08-15-2019 05:24 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-15-2019 02:38 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  CIA conspiracy theory
There's a big theory circulating around the Communist Chinese internet that the CIA are the main cause of the protests based on some visibly non-Chinese interacting with some of the protesters and the CIA's usual procedure for regime change.

Let's not kid ourselves here. Of course the CIA is involved. Do I think they are behind the whole thing? No. Some of it is just standard economic and political disenfranchisement dialed up.

There are many Hongkies who are upset with the cost of living and insane real estate prices. HK has the third most billionaires per capita in the world.

The wealth gap is huge and it's rubbed in their faces daily by the media and mainland Chinese streaming over shopping for designer brands while cantonese speaking locals are treated like lower class proles.

However,..this really isn't about democracy or anything like that really. Southern Chinese have their own culture and language too. They have always been known as the mercantile class.

For example the vast majority of wealthy SEA Chinese have southern Chinese roots. The whole "jews" of asia stuff actually refers to this particular demographic the most. However, it is really a false comparison since most southern Chinese are just interested in making money and living a good life and not all that much in creating sex slaves and dominating the world in a vengeful talmudic way like Jews are prone to do.


When it comes to Hong Kong:

The standard PRC modus operandi is to find the leaders and their intelligence and then make them disappear or flip them. That's how they defeated the whole uighur insurgency thing. The problem for them is that Hong Kong is a high profile cosmopolitan area and not a place populated by bearded dirty faced muslims who elicit limited sympathy. So, they are most likely just being more cautious as to how they will eventually disappear or replace the leaders of this latest "movement."

Behind the scenes i'm sure there's a shitload of intel vs intel agency warfare going on we aren't privy too.
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2019 06:58 AM by El Chinito loco.)
08-15-2019 06:56 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
CIA or not those APCs and troops are very real and the only thing stopping the Reds going in like they normally do when someone flips them the bird too much is HK island is a centre for finance and other things. All eyes are on it and they haven't done anything like that before.

I've seen a few actual intelligent commentors say if anything happens on the streets to the people then there would be a massive financial and political backlash for China. Something they can do without now their economy isn't so hot.
08-15-2019 09:43 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
The people of Hong Kong can't win either way.

In 20-30 years either their freedoms will be snuffed out by the mainland or their kids will be getting mandatory LBGT indoctrination classes. Globohomo vs Chinese hive mentality. Fight for freedom of speech and it will be used to push degeneracy. Fight for nationalism and it will be used to create a prison state. I don't envy them in that regard but as I've noted in the past at least an ethnic Chinaman can express pride in his ethnicity, his nation and the accomplishments of his ancestors without being fired, prosecuted, unpersoned and left to die in the gutter.

We in the West may have a better standard of living but legally, politically, racially and culturally we are occupied by foreigners and therefore have little to brag about.

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08-15-2019 10:25 AM
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Post: #41
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
I'm watching these protests with interest.

The financiers currently in control of the West have planned to move to China once the west collapses and is overrun. Their children have been taught Mandarin in their schools for the past 15 years at least.

China has thousands of years of history of expelling or murdering non Chinese, so why are they admitting African migrants? Certainly, Taiwan shows that Chinese can get fully behind Globalist poz. Nonetheless, current China is not a place that would welcome a population of a few million foreign merchants.

I'm waiting for news of a shakeup at the top of China's communist party, followed by the installation of a leader that gets overly praised by the media. That's the signal that the final plans to collapse the West and move to China have started.

This western backed Hong Kong protest is merely an attempt to pressure China's premier into the type of mistake that will allow the Globalists to install their ally.
08-15-2019 11:11 AM
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Post: #42
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-15-2019 06:56 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  
(08-15-2019 02:38 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  CIA conspiracy theory
There's a big theory circulating around the Communist Chinese internet that the CIA are the main cause of the protests based on some visibly non-Chinese interacting with some of the protesters and the CIA's usual procedure for regime change.

For example the vast majority of wealthy SEA Chinese have southern Chinese roots. The whole "jews" of asia stuff actually refers to this particular demographic the most. However, it is really a false comparison since most southern Chinese are just interested in making money and living a good life and not all that much in creating sex slaves and dominating the world in a vengeful talmudic way like Jews are prone to do.

Who do you think turned Thailand into a giant brothel?

They care about ethnic thai women as much as tribe members care about schicksas and as a matriarchal race they have plenty of Ghiselane Maxwell procurer types as well.

Who milked all of South East Asia dry with rent seeking acticities?

Even the thai king is cantonese...

They engage in any illicit activity imaginable and are responsible for the flood of narcotics in South East Asia.

They are natural born kingpins and extremely politically skilled just like tribe members.

Their women are extremely dangerous domineering narcissists who don't shy away from murdering people over minor stuff.

I'm not sure if they have been expelled from countries but there were genocide attempts.

Han people are generally easy to get along with while cantonese are largely total psychos.

Quote: The financiers currently in control of the West have planned to move to China once the west collapses and is overrun. Their children have been taught Mandarin in their schools for the past 15 years at least.

I don't think the elites have much interest in living in China but lower level tribe members run most expat focused restaurants and clubs and act as brokers for business and power. I'm amazed at their natural ability to learn mandarin to full fluency and integrate themselves with a strong local network quickly and to manage people of different races and cultures that have very different ways of thinking.
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2019 12:11 PM by iThinkThereforeIam.)
08-15-2019 11:28 AM
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RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
[Image: e4426f4ea06f2f59.jpeg?1565901629]
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08-15-2019 10:28 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
some guy on Twitter commenting on scuffles on Australian campuses:

"Hongkong students: Hong Kong stay strong
[mainland] Chinese students: CNMB (操你妈逼, fuck your mother)
Who is civilized and who is rude are apparent. It’s one of the reasons why Hongkongers refused China education."

Between brainwashed communist thugs and Chinese people who know the importance of laws and order, I'm going to go with the latter.

That's all there is to it really.
(This post was last modified: 08-16-2019 12:00 PM by Lunostrelki.)
08-16-2019 11:58 AM
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Post: #45
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-16-2019 11:58 AM)Lunostrelki Wrote:  some guy on Twitter commenting on scuffles on Australian campuses:

"Hongkong students: Hong Kong stay strong
[mainland] Chinese students: CNMB (操你妈逼, fuck your mother)
Who is civilized and who is rude are apparent. It’s one of the reasons why Hongkongers refused China education."

Between brainwashed communist thugs and Chinese people who know the importance of laws and order, I'm going to go with the latter.

That's all there is to it really.

From another Thread discussing overseas Vietnamese:

In the cafe I have met Viets from California, Missouri, New Jersey and Sydney - long term residents with US or Australian passports and all keen to talk to me but none able to speak English.

We had to use our phones to communicate.

On holiday but apparently it is the height of oppression that they are forced to return to work in Australia and the USA over Tet.

I asked and all their communication with government departments in their new countries is conducted in Vietnamese.

It is not good that they are forced to share their insular communities with people from the North of Vietnam or the South when they are from the middle.
The others shouldn't get to represent them to the government.
They are not happy about this.


From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"Mainland Chinese students outnumber students from Hong Kong on university campuses, which increasingly depend on the hundreds of millions of dollars that students from China pay each year.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age revealed last week that the family of at least one pro-democracy mainland Chinese student was threatened after they attended a protest and some mainland students have threatened to report pro-democracy social media posts to the Chinese embassy.

But the Chinese student community is not a homogeneous bloc. The Herald and The Age reported this week that on campuses like the University of Sydney, where international students are active in campus politics, different groups of international students hold more conservative and progressive views, and compete for campus positions."

Colour me Mother-fucking Surprised that this situation is suddenly developing..
08-16-2019 12:28 PM
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Post: #46
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019




4chan providing proof of countless police protester provocateurs in order to give reason to clamp down.

That is why those kind of protests will only work when huge gigantic parts of the population are participating. It's way too easy to disrupt them by such measures. And knowing China - even huge population demonstrations won't change their determination. They will then use tanks and the military on massive scale, call out a curfew and disappear tens of thousands of activists silently.

There was a good reason why so many Chinese left China even back in the 19th century. Their elite were never limp-wristed when it came down to create a brutal authoritarian regime that demanded absolute obedience.
08-16-2019 01:08 PM
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Post: #47
Peter Zeihan's Analysis
Peter Zeihan has really good analysis of China, that includes why Hong Kong exists and why the Chinese government keeps such a tight leash.





He also wrote 2 recent news letters about the HK situation:

Zeihan HK One

Zeihan HK Two
08-16-2019 06:40 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Have to disagree with Zeihan on this:


"The scale of what’s about to happen is difficult to grasp:

At their peak, the Tiananmen protests involved 300,000 people, mostly students. The Chinese government sent in nearly as many troops to crush the movement. Fatality reports varied wildly from zero (the number Beijing proffered) to 10,000 (the estimate of the British embassy).

In Hong Kong, the protestors have regularly managed to get a million people out in the streets, a figure that has swelled to two million on several occasions. They aren’t just young people. They are families. Retirees. Bankers. Lots of people who normally never protest. I’ve not seen anything like this since the broad-spectrum Iranian protests that dislodged the Shah back in 1979. It is a huge proportion of Hong Kong’s total population (less than 7.5 million).

Is this actually true ^ ?

Ending the protests means nothing less than a full military invasion and occupation of the island.

^Really?

And unlike the Tiananmen massacre where reports of the military operation made it out piecemeal, in today’s social media age Hong Kong’s fall will be broadcast live for the world to see. It will be like Japan’s 2001 Sendai earthquake, but with a wall of tanks instead of a wall of water.

... .. The protests will not only fail, they signal the end of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is about to become an absolutely horrible place to be. The degree of Chinese… reconstruction of the island will be on par with the cultural genocide already being imposed upon the Uyghurs of China’s western Xinjiang region. It won’t last a week or a month or a year. We’re looking at something that will last at least a decade.

The coming violence and occupation will utterly remove Hong Kong from the global network of logistical and financial hubs. Hong Kong has been China’s primary entry point, China’s primary export point, and most capable financial center. Its end takes the gem out of the Chinese crown, as it were. For the past thirty years, China has provided foreign investors with scale, cheap labor, security and local expertise. The ending of Hong Kong damages all that and more."

I don't believe any of this.
What he's predicting isn't going to happen in my view.
08-16-2019 11:44 PM
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Post: #49
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Lol. Australian universities "need" hundreds of millions of Chinabux. Gosh, how could the education sector in our socialist nation ever survive without all that foreign money? Lord knows how we managed prior to 20 years ago. Might have something to do with a notable lack of an army of administrative class parasites drawing fat salaries to foist progressive garbage on the world.

I hope the whole sector collapses.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
08-17-2019 12:27 AM
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Post: #50
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-16-2019 11:44 PM)Bienvenuto Wrote:  Have to disagree with Zeihan on this:


"The scale of what’s about to happen is difficult to grasp:

At their peak, the Tiananmen protests involved 300,000 people, mostly students. The Chinese government sent in nearly as many troops to crush the movement. Fatality reports varied wildly from zero (the number Beijing proffered) to 10,000 (the estimate of the British embassy).

In Hong Kong, the protestors have regularly managed to get a million people out in the streets, a figure that has swelled to two million on several occasions. They aren’t just young people. They are families. Retirees. Bankers. Lots of people who normally never protest. I’ve not seen anything like this since the broad-spectrum Iranian protests that dislodged the Shah back in 1979. It is a huge proportion of Hong Kong’s total population (less than 7.5 million).

Is this actually true ^ ?

Ending the protests means nothing less than a full military invasion and occupation of the island.

^Really?

And unlike the Tiananmen massacre where reports of the military operation made it out piecemeal, in today’s social media age Hong Kong’s fall will be broadcast live for the world to see. It will be like Japan’s 2001 Sendai earthquake, but with a wall of tanks instead of a wall of water.

... .. The protests will not only fail, they signal the end of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is about to become an absolutely horrible place to be. The degree of Chinese… reconstruction of the island will be on par with the cultural genocide already being imposed upon the Uyghurs of China’s western Xinjiang region. It won’t last a week or a month or a year. We’re looking at something that will last at least a decade.

The coming violence and occupation will utterly remove Hong Kong from the global network of logistical and financial hubs. Hong Kong has been China’s primary entry point, China’s primary export point, and most capable financial center. Its end takes the gem out of the Chinese crown, as it were. For the past thirty years, China has provided foreign investors with scale, cheap labor, security and local expertise. The ending of Hong Kong damages all that and more."

I don't believe any of this.
What he's predicting isn't going to happen in my view.

Whoever thinks China will completely destroy Hong Kong, lock anywhere from 20% to 60% of the population in reeducation camps (20% of Hong Kong are pro-independence, another 40% are pan-Democrats), and reconstruct the entire society is living in what Margaret Thatcher called a "cloud cuckoo land". This is simply not in the interest of China to get rid of Two Systems unless riots become so bad that Hong Kong becomes ungovernable, unvisitable, and unlivable. The chance of this happening as of how is about 5-10% perhaps: This seems like a big deal as 3 months ago, the chance of this happening was exactly 0%.

On the other hand, the fact that Hong Kong is now subject to a travel warning due to civil unrest by dozens of countries in the world, and with violent rioter-police clashes in 17/18 districts not to mention the airport closure, this is indeed a historical turning point. Likely, this is the signal of the beginning of the end of Asia's World City, although Hong Kong will live on.

What will happen is that Hong Kong will gradually retreat to second tier status on the global stage. The China-specific Asia-Pacific stuff will likely move to Shanghai, while the non-China pan-Asian stuff and the "Two Systems" roles that Hong Kong played will be moved to Singapore.

This doesn't mean Hong Kong will die at the expense of Singapore and Shanghai: It will still be a center of international trade, arbitrage, and offshore gateway to China, but just be a solid third place after Shanghai and Singapore on the Asia-Pacific side of the global economy. 20 years ago, Hong Kong was the undisputed leading city of Asia with no competitors. Today it lost that title and its regional competitors are Singapore and Shanghai for the top dog position. In 10-20 years, Shanghai and Singapore will duke it out at the top, while Hong Kong moves down a notch and its new regional competitors will be Taipei and Kuala Lumpur, assuming the latter 2 don't undergo massive changes themselves.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2019 03:29 AM by Aquarius.)
08-17-2019 02:49 AM
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