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Hong Kong protests 2019
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fktax Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Is anyone looking at investing in HK during this bad news period? I'm not sure if blood is truly on the streets (and hopefully won't happen), but I'm interested in buying solid/reliable HK-based companies that are just devalued due to what is going on right now.
08-17-2019 03:59 AM
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Aquarius Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Thank goodness there has been no fatalities so far. There just have been violent clashes that involve mass arrests and a couple of serious injuries at the end of each clash. The worst injury was permanent blindness so far.

HK is nowhere near a free-fall collapse right now and as I'm typing this, while its definitely chaotic and not a stress-free vacation destination, it is still a powerful economic hub. If you are looking for a mass sweep-up of cheap Hong Kong assets, we're not at that point yet. Given the current uncertainty of everything, I'd be Team Wait and See as far as investments in HK are concerned.

My guess is that we will see is a gradual, but palpable fade of Hong Kong into second-tier status in a timeline of perhaps 1-2 decades. But I'm just one layperson.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2019 04:27 AM by Aquarius.)
08-17-2019 04:26 AM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Two irreconcilable positions mean that the situation in Hong Kong is unlikely to end well.

A large percentage of the able-bodied population of Hong Kong is staunchly opposed to the CCP trying to turn their city into another municipality of Guangdong. The current anti-extradition protests are far larger than the 2014 democracy movement, because while many Hongkongers don't necessarily care who their chief executive is, they do care about not becoming a part of mainland China.

The CCP's long-term goal is to absorb Hong Kong into the mainland using policy changes like the extradition law, "patriotic" education, national security law, etc. The timeframe and method don't matter. The main thing is that Hong Kong be normalized. That means no annual vigil for Tiananmen, no free press, no demonstrations, increased synchronization of mainland and HK law.

There is no way for either side to change their fundamental positions. You can't tell the Hongkongers to stop being Hongkongers and you can't tell the CCP to stop being the CCP.

The CCP knows that there's already a large corps of locals who will never accept what Beijing has planned for HK. What it needs to do is demonize and marginalize those hardcore opponents, so as to separate them from the Hongkongers who are wavering in their resistance.

But as the Soviets found out when trying to rule over the Eastern European nations, local nationalism is a tough nut to crack. Again, millions of Hongkongers took an issue with the extradition bill (2019) and not universal suffrage (2014) because the former would directly threaten the ability of Hong Kong to retain its identity.

Since the PRC has money, the first option it uses is to buy support and isolate the hardcore opposition. That's not working right now, so the next best option is to infiltrate both the HK police and protesters, mobilize triads, and cause chaos in the city. They want to beat the protesters and anyone who might support them into submission without deploying the PLA or People's Armed Police in a direct role. That's why you have the triads running around attacking people indiscriminately on the subway, and mainland officers posing as HK police and aiming for people's upper bodies or firing tear gas in confined areas. Imagine the AntiFa-police-mayoral collusion in Portland, magnify that by 1000, and you get Hong Kong.

The "shadow crackdown" might work if the Hongkongers had some incentive to give up their current way of life and accept their mainland overlords, but that's not happening with China's economy doing as badly as it is now, and no sign of the CCP letting up on its intensification of "red" ideology. The protests will continue, more incidents will happen, and eventually the PLA and PAP are going to move in and restore order.

My bet is that it'll be more Czechoslovakia 1968 and less Tiananmen 1989, however. The CCP has much more experience with handling crowds now, and plus, they'll want to protect what's left of their reputation, even if it's not much.
08-17-2019 12:02 PM
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Zenta Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-17-2019 04:26 AM)Aquarius Wrote:  Thank goodness there has been no fatalities so far. There just have been violent clashes that involve mass arrests and a couple of serious injuries at the end of each clash. The worst injury was permanent blindness so far.

That and the poor saps who have been arrested and will probably face 10 years to life in prison for trying to stand up for their freedom.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2019 12:10 PM by Zenta.)
08-17-2019 12:09 PM
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Bienvenuto Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019

A bit of anti-mainland propaganda from Hong Kong newspaper The South China Morning Post:

In Fairness, can't disagree with this, except that Sihanoukville was a bit of seedy shithole before, that nevertheless had some charm.

The Khmer hate hate HATE the Chinese.
Having spent some time there in the last couple of years I cannot overemphasise that enough - the Chinese are utterly hated in that country, people who openly tell me how much they hate Western Barang still reserve a special venom for the Mainland Chinese.
(Same sentiment harboured by the Viets and even the superficially laid back Thais)
The locals in Cambodia are fairly clear as to the role of the Chinese in an economy that is grinding the majority of them to powder.
08-17-2019 01:25 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Many HK Chinese hate Communist China, but they should better accept the inevitable. China will dominate this planet for the next 200 years and their reign has barely begun. They won't bow to a couple mostly peaceful rebels in Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is not going under - the Chinese like the wealth created, but want to tighten the control and restrict certain freedoms.

This is a losing battle and I would recommend the protesters to give up. The Yellowvests in France have far more reason to fight back and they are way more brutally repressed with the media being silent about it.

This crisis in Hong Kong will pass. China doesn't want a massacre, so it will be a war of attrition, more provocateurs, more fake violence until the people give up. It will be something akin to Occupy Wallstreet that was subverted, fizzled out with the last remnants being cleaned out at night by moderate force.
08-17-2019 01:41 PM
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tobehero Away
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Post: #57
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Comparing this to the occupy wallstreet is ridiculous.

700+ marchers arrested
(crossing Brooklyn Bridge, October 1, 2011)
2,000+ marchers
(march on police headquarters, October 2, 2011)
15,000+ marchers
(Lower Manhattan solidarity march, October 5, 2011)
6,000+ marchers
(Times Square recruitment center march, October 15, 2011)
50,000–100,000 marchers
(2012 May Day march on Wall St.)

16 June 2019- broke the record of largest protest in Hong Kong with nearly 2 million marchers.
2 MILLION!

11 consecutive weeks on, there is no sign of this it stopping. Today there was a massive march in wan chai.

You do not realise how stubborn / patriotic the chinese and hong kong people are....
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2019 09:03 AM by tobehero.)
08-18-2019 09:02 AM
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whitewashedblackguy Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
I hope Hong Kong keeps it up. I don't want to see them lose their freedom of speech. Rooting for them all the way.

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08-18-2019 02:57 PM
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Nineteen84 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2019 03:28 PM by Nineteen84.)
08-18-2019 03:16 PM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-17-2019 01:41 PM)Simeon_Strangelight Wrote:  This crisis in Hong Kong will pass. China doesn't want a massacre, so it will be a war of attrition, more provocateurs, more fake violence until the people give up. It will be something akin to Occupy Wallstreet that was subverted, fizzled out with the last remnants being cleaned out at night by moderate force.
On the contrary, as you indicated in an earlier post, the sheer number of people involved means the attempts by the CCP to subvert the protests will fail. Should the protesters choose to stick it out, there's no way Beijing can do anything in the long run except crack down in heavy handed fashion.
08-18-2019 07:29 PM
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Simeon_Strangelight Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-18-2019 07:29 PM)Lunostrelki Wrote:  
(08-17-2019 01:41 PM)Simeon_Strangelight Wrote:  This crisis in Hong Kong will pass. China doesn't want a massacre, so it will be a war of attrition, more provocateurs, more fake violence until the people give up. It will be something akin to Occupy Wallstreet that was subverted, fizzled out with the last remnants being cleaned out at night by moderate force.
On the contrary, as you indicated in an earlier post, the sheer number of people involved means the attempts by the CCP to subvert the protests will fail. Should the protesters choose to stick it out, there's no way Beijing can do anything in the long run except crack down in heavy handed fashion.

Yeah - if such large protests continue, then China will have to back down at least for now. I am sure that they will attempt to do it again on the sly later.

Interesting to see what happens...
08-19-2019 02:42 AM
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
...


More "warnings" from China.

Global times releases another (Chinese government approved) video with dramatic music, showing a training exercise in Shenzhen with hundreds of mainland Chinese military & police forces doing riot control and fighting fake protestors.




08-19-2019 11:38 AM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-19-2019 02:42 AM)Simeon_Strangelight Wrote:  
(08-18-2019 07:29 PM)Lunostrelki Wrote:  
(08-17-2019 01:41 PM)Simeon_Strangelight Wrote:  This crisis in Hong Kong will pass. China doesn't want a massacre, so it will be a war of attrition, more provocateurs, more fake violence until the people give up. It will be something akin to Occupy Wallstreet that was subverted, fizzled out with the last remnants being cleaned out at night by moderate force.
On the contrary, as you indicated in an earlier post, the sheer number of people involved means the attempts by the CCP to subvert the protests will fail. Should the protesters choose to stick it out, there's no way Beijing can do anything in the long run except crack down in heavy handed fashion.

Yeah - if such large protests continue, then China will have to back down at least for now. I am sure that they will attempt to do it again on the sly later.

Interesting to see what happens...

Of course, the Chinese would want to avoid having to crack down if at all possible. For the time being, there are bigger fish for the CCP to fry than a bunch of pissed-off HKers.

However, the Chinese may benefit from scaring people into thinking they will crack down.
08-19-2019 03:26 PM
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Handsome Creepy Eel Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Assume the CCP cracks down on everything in a brutal fashion, say they roll out a few dozen tanks to mow down several thousand protesters live on camera.

What exactly would the world do? Invade China? Nuke it? Put sanctions on it? Please.

There would be plenty of barking, sure... but in the end no one would lift a finger.

Sadly, Hong Kong is completely at CCP's mercy and will be broken into submission sooner or later.

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08-19-2019 09:53 PM
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Zenta Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-19-2019 09:53 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Assume the CCP cracks down on everything in a brutal fashion, say they roll out a few dozen tanks to mow down several thousand protesters live on camera.

What exactly would the world do? Invade China? Nuke it? Put sanctions on it? Please.

There would be plenty of barking, sure... but in the end no one would lift a finger.

Sadly, Hong Kong is completely at CCP's mercy and will be broken into submission sooner or later.

I don't like it but I don't disagree with it sadly. That is the ultimate outcome.
08-19-2019 10:37 PM
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Post: #66
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
^ it's not about ability to intetvene. HK's economy is at stake. Huge financial center, richest property market in the world. I've never read any credible reports that China could be stopped from invading.

Due to proximity, China benefits enormously from HK. A lot of the Chinese elites have BIG money tied up in there. It's the nuetral zone between communist China and Western capital markets.

A bad crackdown will destroy that dynamic, make capital flee (more than already), and effectively ruin the reputation of HK as an intellectual and economic hub.

If things get worse, i expect Singapore to benefit the most from all the fleeing capital and businesses. No easy solution here. Maybe China will decide to place order over prosperity, but they will lose face and a lot of credibility.
08-19-2019 10:45 PM
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Post: #67
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
As a young man I lived in HK for 3 years in the late 80's and early 90's.
Those were halcyon days.
When people complain about the boomers and how we let things slip out of control, I'd have to agree with them, We did. Britain gave HK up in 99 when the lease expired. It should never have gone down like that, they should have negotiated for another 100 years and should have been able to secure it. But we've become so weak and there's no political will left in the west to engage in anything that remotely seems like "colonialism", so they handed it back to China. Weak sauce.
We are a shadow of our forefathers.
The vast majority of people in Hong Kong wish the British were still in charge.
08-19-2019 11:08 PM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-19-2019 09:53 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Assume the CCP cracks down on everything in a brutal fashion, say they roll out a few dozen tanks to mow down several thousand protesters live on camera.

What exactly would the world do? Invade China? Nuke it? Put sanctions on it? Please.

There would be plenty of barking, sure... but in the end no one would lift a finger.

Sadly, Hong Kong is completely at CCP's mercy and will be broken into submission sooner or later.

Unpleasant but true.

The last few decades have been so blissfully peaceful by greater historical standards that most people don't realize how ugly things can get and how quickly they can get that way. If something big were to happen here in the West that dragged all media attention away from the East then I wouldn't want to be in the shoes of a HK protester. We're talking about a regime that literally murdered between 30 and 60 million of its own people during the people's revolution. That number is so big that as Stalin said, it simply becomes a statistic. Buried by Western standards that many corpses would be enough to make a cemetery the size of a small country. To read their names in succession without a break would take in the vicinity of 10 to 20 years. It's beyond imagination but it actually happened and it can/will happen again. The question that remains is "who will it happen to" and the people of HK are not well placed to weather that inevitable storm.

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(This post was last modified: 08-19-2019 11:47 PM by Leonard D Neubache.)
08-19-2019 11:19 PM
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Emancipator Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
CCP paid stooges working hard to counter pro-HK rallies Canada wide. Blocking protesters in Toronto from marching while booing, screaming and honking their luxury cars to drown out the HK contingent singing Oh Canada

They realized they were getting hostility flying only Chinese flags and recently resorted to flying the Canadian flag alongside it :haha:

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08-20-2019 03:19 AM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
The PRC is not going to crack down unless Hong Kong really gets out of control. They want HK to remain the Great Moneymaking Gate to their New Great Wall.

What the PRC does want is for the rest of the world to think that a crackdown is imminent, and that Beijing is not scared of any economic consequences that might arise from that.

So far, this tactic is working. Both Trump and Pence have warned that if there's a second Tiananmen, there won't be a trade deal. Of course, in true "paper tiger" reactionary fashion, what this translates to is "I beg you, please don't destroy Hong Kong and cause a recession that gets us thrown out of office!"

Little do they know: Beijing never wanted a Tiananmen in Hong Kong, and they don't particularly care about a trade deal either.
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2019 04:21 AM by Lunostrelki.)
08-20-2019 04:21 AM
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Polniy_Sostav Offline
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RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Realistically , how long would an assault of the Chinese army take to take full administrative control of Hong Kong and control in the streets ?
08-20-2019 08:13 AM
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Post: #72
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
I kinda hope China rolls in with tanks and gives us some entertainment. And HCE is right, no one is gonna do shit about it.

If you detach yourself from emotionally from these events, they’re very dramatic and interesting to follow and watch. I don’t have a dog in this fight. I just wanna see a show!
08-20-2019 08:13 AM
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RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 08:13 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  Realistically , how long would an assault of the Chinese army take to take full administrative control of Hong Kong and control in the streets ?

If they're willing to indiscriminately kill and flatten buildings and infrastructure, it could be done in a few hours. If not, substantially longer--possibly weeks or months depending on the level of resistance--as their military vehicles will have trouble with the narrow streets and the terrain and they would need to send troops on foot into every alley, packed apartment building, etc. Kowloon is the most densely populated place on earth and parts of HKI aren't far behind...if you've ever seen the movie "The Raid", picture that on a massive scale. I suspect they wouldn't simply flatten the city a) because of the certainty of killing large numbers of foreign nationals and b) they'll want the infrastructure in place after they pacify it.

There's no legal civilian gun ownership in HK of course, but Molotov cocktails and the like are always an option and I would hope/think that US/Taiwanese/Japanese intelligence is making plans to smuggle arms into the city.

Really this is on the Brits. In the 1980s they should have said "sorry, we signed the 99-year lease with the Qing Dynasty, not the PRC. However, because we are magnanimous, we will allow the people of HK to decide their fate--a referendum with the options of remaining a British colony, joining China, or full independence, using either ranked choice or a runoff--we will respect the outcome if Beijing pledges to do the same."

Like Taiwan, HK is majority ethnic Chinese but not truly a part of China any more than Singapore or for that matter the Chinatown neighborhoods in western cities.

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(This post was last modified: 08-20-2019 08:52 AM by Dr Mantis Toboggan.)
08-20-2019 08:51 AM
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Bienvenuto Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
In what world could the UK exert ANY power or project any force against the Chinese Red Army.. in South China of all places?

The British army and Navy was almost entirely hollowed out by that stage. They had almost lost the Falklands war were it not for Argentine fuckups and Reagans intervention. Ever since the Suez crisis they had to piggyback on US assets in order to campaign overseas.

I said it before on this thread. The Brits acknowledged for years that they would be like an insect against an iron carriage if the Chinese decided to invade the colony.

So the idea that the Brits should have seriously pissed off the US (whose Cold War diktats they unerringly obeyed) by reneging on agreements with the US' new best friend, China, and should have threatened everyone including the US with World War III in order to guarantee the rights of the Hong Kong Chinese (who certainly had no love for the Brits and in many cases actively hated them) just makes no sense to me.

Britain HAD to recognise the independence of Israel in the late 40's partly because the US ambassador threatened 'rationing' UK with starvation. Should the UK, whose troops were being killed by Israelis in Palestine at the time, have starved for the sake of the Palestinians?
Should the UK have gone Full-Rhodesia for the sake of the Hong Kong Chinese?

The Colony was always going back to China. Thats just Realpolitik.
08-20-2019 10:16 AM
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Post: #75
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 08:13 AM)TigerMandingo Wrote:  I don’t have a dog in this fight. I just wanna see a show!

Thats where you're wrong.

That shit snowball is gathering momentum worldwide and this kind of thing adds to it. You can be entertained at the misery of others if you're a sociopath but things have far reach consequences in unusual ways.
08-20-2019 10:57 AM
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