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Hong Kong protests 2019
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 08:51 AM)Dr Mantis Toboggan Wrote:  Really this is on the Brits. In the 1980s they should have said "sorry, we signed the 99-year lease with the Qing Dynasty, not the PRC. However, because we are magnanimous, we will allow the people of HK to decide their fate--a referendum with the options of remaining a British colony, joining China, or full independence, using either ranked choice or a runoff--we will respect the outcome if Beijing pledges to do the same."

This is very accurate.
Legally speaking, isn't Taiwan (which officially calls itself "the republic of China") the legitimate legal successor to the Qing Dynasty ?

Also, the 99 year lease clause made in 1898 only applied to the "new territories" (the north of Hong Kong and Lantau island) while Hong Kong island and Kowloon were to remain British "forever" as per treaties in 1842 and 1860.

Also, in British laws, property leases are renewed all the time, as long as you pay again.


[Image: b25bac3a241cb7397555346414918118.png]



I think Margaret Thatcher simply sold out big time to Deng Xiaoping. It was Thatcher's signature style in her 11 years in power to privatize and sell off as many state assets as possible, to pay off old debts and stimulate the economy. She sold off state railways, post offices, bus services, water/gas/electric services, shipbuilding, steelworks, the national airline, council houses, government buildings....anything and everything she possibly could. The 1980s in the UK was like a huge neverending state property fire sale. It's likely the UK simply got a shit ton of money from China secretly to simply let Hong Kong go.


If Argentina had done the same and simply offered the UK enough money (instead of invading the Falkland islands in 1982) I bet Thatcher would have let those islands go as well without a 2nd thought...but the Argentines were (and still are) short of any serious cash.


[Image: https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cnn.com%2Fcnnnext%2Fda...aoping.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2019 12:18 PM by Caduceus.)
08-20-2019 11:32 AM
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Post: #77
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 08:51 AM)Dr Mantis Toboggan Wrote:  
(08-20-2019 08:13 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  Realistically , how long would an assault of the Chinese army take to take full administrative control of Hong Kong and control in the streets ?

If they're willing to indiscriminately kill and flatten buildings and infrastructure, it could be done in a few hours. If not, substantially longer--possibly weeks or months depending on the level of resistance--as their military vehicles will have trouble with the narrow streets and the terrain and they would need to send troops on foot into every alley, packed apartment building, etc. Kowloon is the most densely populated place on earth and parts of HKI aren't far behind...if you've ever seen the movie "The Raid", picture that on a massive scale. I suspect they wouldn't simply flatten the city a) because of the certainty of killing large numbers of foreign nationals and b) they'll want the infrastructure in place after they pacify it.

There's no legal civilian gun ownership in HK of course, but Molotov cocktails and the like are always an option and I would hope/think that US/Taiwanese/Japanese intelligence is making plans to smuggle arms into the city.

Really this is on the Brits. In the 1980s they should have said "sorry, we signed the 99-year lease with the Qing Dynasty, not the PRC. However, because we are magnanimous, we will allow the people of HK to decide their fate--a referendum with the options of remaining a British colony, joining China, or full independence, using either ranked choice or a runoff--we will respect the outcome if Beijing pledges to do the same."

Like Taiwan, HK is majority ethnic Chinese but not truly a part of China any more than Singapore or for that matter the Chinatown neighborhoods in western cities.

One thing that gets overlooked a lot is the tremendous cultural and linguistic divide between Hong Kong and the mainland. The mainland speaks Mandarin (a collection of similar languages out of which they constructed a pidgin reasonably intelligible across the different Mandarin languages) while Hong Kong speaks Cantonese (There's a lulzy phenomenon where because of the way the languages are structured Cantonese speakers have an easier time learning and understanding Mandarin than Mandarin speakers trying to Cantonese). This cultural divide means any disputes between HK and the mainland have the potential to get tense fast.

Another thing at work is on the mainland the PRC ruthlessly A/B tests policies, and once they find one that works they implement it across the PRC. Because of this mainland Chinese tend to be patriotic, nationalistic, and pro-Government because they see the government doing things that improve their quality of life. This doesn't mean there aren't dissidents or that socialism isn't evil. It means the Chinese government relentlessly pursues policies to make the mass of Chinese people in the mainland reasonably content. Meanwhile Hong Kong, Macau, and the other "one country two systems" places are their own sorts of experiments.

Hong Kong instead of doing the systematic scientific management thing the mainland does is doing the modern democracy thing. It looks like "modern democracy" is just about the worst way to run a country. It pisses people off constantly and keeps them pissed off. Modern democracy demands every single head in the crowded mass assume the responsability of a medival lord without concern for their ability or allowing them access to the tools or environment which would allow for them doing so successfully. Hong Kong can't build housing like the mainland because modern democracy won't let them. Hong Kong can't do much of anything because modern democracy is a handicap. And so Hong Kong fell from the place with the money and a bustling economy to a relatively stagnant (compared to the rest of china) ghetto. It's a fall from the New York (1980's version) of China to the Kansas City of China on the strength of the PRC allowing Hong Kong all of the freedom to do their own thing.
08-20-2019 12:24 PM
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Post: #78
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 12:24 PM)BBinger Wrote:  
(08-20-2019 08:51 AM)Dr Mantis Toboggan Wrote:  
(08-20-2019 08:13 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  Realistically , how long would an assault of the Chinese army take to take full administrative control of Hong Kong and control in the streets ?

If they're willing to indiscriminately kill and flatten buildings and infrastructure, it could be done in a few hours. If not, substantially longer--possibly weeks or months depending on the level of resistance--as their military vehicles will have trouble with the narrow streets and the terrain and they would need to send troops on foot into every alley, packed apartment building, etc. Kowloon is the most densely populated place on earth and parts of HKI aren't far behind...if you've ever seen the movie "The Raid", picture that on a massive scale. I suspect they wouldn't simply flatten the city a) because of the certainty of killing large numbers of foreign nationals and b) they'll want the infrastructure in place after they pacify it.

There's no legal civilian gun ownership in HK of course, but Molotov cocktails and the like are always an option and I would hope/think that US/Taiwanese/Japanese intelligence is making plans to smuggle arms into the city.

Really this is on the Brits. In the 1980s they should have said "sorry, we signed the 99-year lease with the Qing Dynasty, not the PRC. However, because we are magnanimous, we will allow the people of HK to decide their fate--a referendum with the options of remaining a British colony, joining China, or full independence, using either ranked choice or a runoff--we will respect the outcome if Beijing pledges to do the same."

Like Taiwan, HK is majority ethnic Chinese but not truly a part of China any more than Singapore or for that matter the Chinatown neighborhoods in western cities.

One thing that gets overlooked a lot is the tremendous cultural and linguistic divide between Hong Kong and the mainland. The mainland speaks Mandarin (a collection of similar languages out of which they constructed a pidgin reasonably intelligible across the different Mandarin languages) while Hong Kong speaks Cantonese (There's a lulzy phenomenon where because of the way the languages are structured Cantonese speakers have an easier time learning and understanding Mandarin than Mandarin speakers trying to Cantonese). This cultural divide means any disputes between HK and the mainland have the potential to get tense fast.

Another thing at work is on the mainland the PRC ruthlessly A/B tests policies, and once they find one that works they implement it across the PRC. Because of this mainland Chinese tend to be patriotic, nationalistic, and pro-Government because they see the government doing things that improve their quality of life. This doesn't mean there aren't dissidents or that socialism isn't evil. It means the Chinese government relentlessly pursues policies to make the mass of Chinese people in the mainland reasonably content. Meanwhile Hong Kong, Macau, and the other "one country two systems" places are their own sorts of experiments.

Hong Kong instead of doing the systematic scientific management thing the mainland does is doing the modern democracy thing. It looks like "modern democracy" is just about the worst way to run a country. It pisses people off constantly and keeps them pissed off. Modern democracy demands every single head in the crowded mass assume the responsability of a medival lord without concern for their ability or allowing them access to the tools or environment which would allow for them doing so successfully. Hong Kong can't build housing like the mainland because modern democracy won't let them. Hong Kong can't do much of anything because modern democracy is a handicap. And so Hong Kong fell from the place with the money and a bustling economy to a relatively stagnant (compared to the rest of china) ghetto. It's a fall from the New York (1980's version) of China to the Kansas City of China on the strength of the PRC allowing Hong Kong all of the freedom to do their own thing.

Ha. Have you been to Hong Kong? Hong Kong is building and renovating like crazy. Also have you been to Shanghai which is building like crazy but it is also crazy polluted.

Hong Kong needs to balance and also Hong Kong doesn't have the space and access to market chinese cities have. HK GDP per capita is still way far from the mainland. You are comparing a fast-developing country to a very developed country. One of the most developed in the world. HK is crazy developed and has crazy challenges (space, geography, rains, heat, etc...) HK is also very small (both the land and population) by any measures. It's a wild place that is fantastic for finance but it can't be a world-power on its own.
08-20-2019 05:48 PM
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Post: #79
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
If China moves in with a violent crackdown, it will be a fiasico for them that would cost them trillions. That's why it won't happen. Far too many globalists have money parked into HK. If their asset values go down, they will return the economic pain on China with heavy sanctions and tariffs.

HK is the Switzerland of Asia. Even Hitler never invaded Switzerland, and for good reason. Far more to lose than to gain with such a move. Same is true in HK. Already Europe and the Democratic Party are threatening China not to use the military. Republicans are already anti-China. Result, 60% of the world's economy is standing behind HK. China is only 14% of the world GDP, they know better than to fuck with this.

On the other hand, if China does not restore order, the HK protests will continue to cost a lot of face from China. China, which is using its image of strength to expand into Southeast Asia and beyond, looks weak when protesters with laser guns can shut down airports, trash talk China, sing the US National Anthem, etc.

China is in a very delicate situation right now, and they know it. Otherwise it'd have already been a Tiananmen Sq last month. China wants to smack these protesters around, but they cannot without losing a staggering amount of money. Hurting HK will seriously piss off Western globalists who use HK as a tax haven, money laundering center throughout asia, and lots of private bank accounts. China knows the score, and that's why it's not invading (and probably will not, but the protesters are doing their best to provoke a response from China. They want China to hit them, because they feel emboldened by all the globalist support they've been getting).

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08-20-2019 08:51 PM
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Post: #80
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(08-20-2019 08:51 PM)Samseau Wrote:  If China moves in with a violent crackdown, it will be a fiasco for them..

On the other hand, if China does not restore order, the HK protests will continue to cost a lot of face from China. China, which is using its image of strength to expand into Southeast Asia and beyond, looks weak when protesters with laser guns can shut down airports..

China is in a very delicate situation right now, and they know it. Otherwise it'd have already been a Tiananmen Sq last month. China wants to smack these protesters around, but they cannot..

the protesters are doing their best to provoke a response from China. They want China to hit them, because they feel emboldened by all the globalist support they've been getting...

Result?

The HKers face "Death by a Thousand Cuts"..

If the Chinese have any smarts then they will know that Revenge is a Dish best Served Cold.

They will back off, exercise patience and slowly take HK, its ability to resist etc. apart over a longer time-frame.

Give the HKers what they want now.

Back to the drawing board, new strategy and slowly chip away again.
Yesterday 06:34 AM
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Post: #81
RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
China will squash HK protesters. And in return make a deal with Trump as barganning chip not to intervene in the shitshow about to happen. I believe China already stopped buying Venezuela oil.

Beijing cannot be challenged in their doorstep. They´ve already showed the military is stationed in Guangzhou. Now protesters have an unwritten deadline. After this deadline and if they reach a deal with Trump/west. Shit is about to get real. The cost of invading HK if the US agrees to it is smaller than a breakup of China. Because the protests of HK will soon become independentists. And for a 1,4B population this would be chaos in the mainland. Xi now has to choose between losing face in trade deal. Or in HK. I believe they will chose trade deal.
Yesterday 09:25 AM
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RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
(Yesterday 09:25 AM)conspirator Wrote:  China will squash HK protesters. And in return make a deal with Trump as barganning chip not to intervene in the shitshow about to happen. I believe China already stopped buying Venezuela oil.

Beijing cannot be challenged in their doorstep. They´ve already showed the military is stationed in Guangzhou. Now protesters have an unwritten deadline. After this deadline and if they reach a deal with Trump/west. Shit is about to get real. The cost of invading HK if the US agrees to it is smaller than a breakup of China. Because the protests of HK will soon become independentists. And for a 1,4B population this would be chaos in the mainland. Xi now has to choose between losing face in trade deal. Or in HK. I believe they will chose trade deal.

Such a deal would ironically turn Republicans into pro-Chinese with a pure free trade deal, while Democrats would become anti-Chinese along with half of Europe.

It would save China their face and halt a lot of economic losses, but ultimately they won't gain any ground. Instead of Republicans being hostile, the Democrat party becomes hostile. They trade one US Party for another, and make a lot of enemies in Europe, but will absolutely scare the shit out of Southeast Asia into submission.

I can definitely see China preferring saving face to saving money. Trump may get his sweetheart trade deal just yet. In such a free trade deal, China will still be able to make good money but things will never be as good as it used to be - yet they will have full control of Hong Kong.

Huge game of chess for China right now.

There can be no question, however, that the HK protests are extremely costly and harmful to China. This is the worst thing that's happened to China since Vietnam, but that's because they've had such a peaceful time in the last 50 years. Back to war!

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(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:28 AM by Samseau.)
Yesterday 10:26 AM
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RE: Hong Kong protests 2019
Small stand-off at Yuen Long MTR (metro) station yesterday:




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