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Argentina public Service Announcement
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Balls_Hang_Low Offline
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Argentina public Service Announcement
Due to recent economic turmoil and unbelievable pre election results the local currency (peso) lost 45% percent of its value overnight.

For those economists out there who might think well prices just adjusted accordingly, no they haven't. Inflation is lagging severely behind.

Conclusion: everything is 50% cheaper than it was yesterday. Since there are goods whose prices dropped just to stimulate sales since everyone is dead ass broke. Come to argentins which is usually a semi expensive destination and do it on the cheap for this month only. Maybe until elections but nothing is guaranteed.

Ps: people are selling their properties dirt cheap for liquidity. I had a friend try to sell his 450k store for 200k and he still can't sell it. You can scoop shit up real cheap and there's no need to panic cause this won't turn into Venezuela anytime soon
08-29-2019 12:22 AM
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RawGod Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
How much would you pay for an apartment or condo in a nice area of BA?

Dr Johnson rumbles with the RawGod. And lives to regret it.
08-29-2019 12:27 AM
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Balls_Hang_Low Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
My apartment is 180m2 has the best parking spot in the building, private pallier and an extra storage area upstairs. One of the most expensive areas of Palermo. Pre devaluation it was around 900k. Now maybe 700k

You can get a 40m2 new apartment in a similar area for 130k today.
08-29-2019 12:37 AM
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SayWhat1015 Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Checked out the peso chart. Looks likely to get worse before it gets better. Highly likely.
08-29-2019 12:38 AM
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LATAMnomad Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
An article says it only lost "22% of its value since August 12." So is this update for real?

Not sure how they got this 45% figure.

but wow, I just looked. There are plenty of whole condos you can rent on airbnb for less than 1000 Philippine/Argentine pesos a day. These 2 currencies are also nearly on par.
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2019 03:14 AM by LATAMnomad.)
08-29-2019 03:08 AM
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Balls_Hang_Low Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Future dólar value is at 100 for December. Dólar was at 42 pre elections and now it oscillates between 60 and 62. Don't know where they got that 22% bullshit from.

Still we have food since we produce, not like Venezuela and we still have property rights and shit.
08-29-2019 09:31 AM
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wellrockthecity Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
I confirm the Airbnb price in BAIRES Palermo seems to be 30% cheaper than last year when I was looking (roughly 1000 eur vs 700 for a luxury one bedroom apartment)
08-29-2019 10:14 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(08-29-2019 12:22 AM)Balls_Hang_Low Wrote:  Ps: people are selling their properties dirt cheap for liquidity. I had a friend try to sell his 450k store for 200k and he still can't sell it. You can scoop shit up real cheap and there's no need to panic cause this won't turn into Venezuela anytime soon

This information is contrary to what I have read on other Argentina threads. Previously, people living in Argentina have stated that real estate in Argentina is priced in U.S. dollars, so a depreciating Argentine peso does not really affect property prices -- unless a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression occurs.

You can read that discussion here, where I raised the issue of the depreciating Argentine Peso last year:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-30972...=argentina


Pricing real estate in U.S. dollars, versus the local currency, is common in many countries to preserve its market value against a volatile local currency. I would be very interested if a real 50% drop in real estate prices ever occurred in Argentina. Perhaps Mekorig or Going Strong can weigh in here.

Just to be clear, despite my discussion involving real estate, many other items priced in Argentine Pesos may represent a great value.
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2019 04:25 PM by Tail Gunner.)
08-29-2019 04:09 PM
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BBinger Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(08-29-2019 04:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(08-29-2019 12:22 AM)Balls_Hang_Low Wrote:  Ps: people are selling their properties dirt cheap for liquidity. I had a friend try to sell his 450k store for 200k and he still can't sell it. You can scoop shit up real cheap and there's no need to panic cause this won't turn into Venezuela anytime soon

This information is contrary to what I have read on other Argentina threads. Previously, people living in Argentina have stated that real estate in Argentina is priced in U.S. dollars, so a depreciating Argentine peso does not really affect property prices -- unless a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression occurs.

You can read that discussion here, where I raised the issue of the depreciating Argentine Peso last year:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-30972...=argentina


Pricing real estate in U.S. dollars, versus the local currency, is common in many countries to preserve its market value against a volatile local currency. I would be very interested if a real 50% drop in real estate prices ever occurred in Argentina. Perhaps Mekorig or Going Strong can weigh in here.

Just to be clear, despite my discussion involving real estate, many other items priced in Argentine Pesos may represent a great value.

The Argentine people are nothing if not lacking in commercial competence. While the historical trend has been a constipated real estate market as people hold hard on prices, Argentina's situation right now is BAD. The Argentina central bank is bleeding their foreign currency reserves trying not to fall too far from 60 pesos Argentinos to the dollar.

During the last Kirchner government the Argentines blocked river crossing to Uruguay, but this time around it may happen the other way around. The "vultures" who have traditionally been Argentina's lenders of last resort haven't seen enough of a devaluation to take on the default risk.

The good reason to be deeply discounting a store on the sales block is that the Argentines don't have the money to buy things from stores. The Argentina situation is set to look very Venezuelan, but without any government sanctions. Strictly as a matter of the private sector writing off the Argentines for countinuing to borrow dollars under the pretense of "development" and instead using the proceeds to underwrite their dole tickets.

One my side of the river the blackboard rate for Pesos Argentinos today is 0.38/0.98 pesos Uruguayos in the compra/venta. That's less distance between zero and what the cambios advertise their buying of pesos Argentinos at than the cambios buying and selling prices.

If you can find motivated sellers, there's probably bargains to be had. They just might not look like such great bargains within the span of the same week.
08-29-2019 08:07 PM
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Going strong Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(08-29-2019 04:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(08-29-2019 12:22 AM)Balls_Hang_Low Wrote:  Ps: people are selling their properties dirt cheap for liquidity. I had a friend try to sell his 450k store for 200k and he still can't sell it. You can scoop shit up real cheap and there's no need to panic cause this won't turn into Venezuela anytime soon

This information is contrary to what I have read on other Argentina threads. Previously, people living in Argentina have stated that real estate in Argentina is priced in U.S. dollars, so a depreciating Argentine peso does not really affect property prices -- unless a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression occurs.

You can read that discussion here, where I raised the issue of the depreciating Argentine Peso last year:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-30972...=argentina


Pricing real estate in U.S. dollars, versus the local currency, is common in many countries to preserve its market value against a volatile local currency. I would be very interested if a real 50% drop in real estate prices ever occurred in Argentina. Perhaps Mekorig or Going Strong can weigh in here.

Just to be clear, despite my discussion involving real estate, many other items priced in Argentine Pesos may represent a great value.

Well, it depends on what one is trying to buy or sell.

In the example above, it's a "450k store". I do believe that the Argentine seller would have to lower his asking-price at 200k, considering the current economic situation, if the shop is not proven to be very successful.

But, if we're talking about apartments in Buenos Aires, medium or higher-medium quality flats, well, no way the Argentine sellers are lowering 50%. Not even 20%.

They price and sell their precious apartments in Usd, and will not considerably lower their prices, unless they actually starve, which won't happen soon. So, expect a 10% discount, at best, quoted in usd.

As to prices of goods and everyday's items, I would say, considering inflation VS "fall of the peso", that at the end of the day, a foreigner has gained maybe 30% on his foreign cash money. Inflation cannot at the moment keep up with peso-devaluation (especially as prices of oil are partially frozen by State orders), but it eventually will, more or less.

Anyway, no contest, it's a great time for foreigners with cash, to travel to Argentina. More bang for your buck, undoubtedly.

@RawDog : yes, 40 square meters (not a brand new building) in Palermo at 130k, or, say same surface for 110k in medium-class Caballito... Anyway you'd need 80.000 usd minimum to buy something quite nice in BsAs. Mind you, you need to bring your foreign money in the country, not as easy as you'd think.
(This post was last modified: 08-30-2019 12:44 AM by Going strong.)
08-30-2019 12:35 AM
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BBinger Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Quick update: Capital controls are back! 21 days after Argentina decided to burn their reserves holding the peso around 60 to the dollar, they broke and had to throw up restrictions.
09-02-2019 12:10 PM
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Crazy Jim Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Cost of living has dropped for anyone with dollars. Dollar rents are falling now for short-term rentals, the first I have seen them fall in more than a year. It is a good time to visit. I can't imagine there is ever a good time to buy property here, unless you plan to stay here forever and don't ever want to sell. Property taxes are constantly rising as well. People may want to unload property at low prices, even if real estate is bought and sold in dollars, since they want to liquidate assets and get them out of country before the situation worsens. The dollar value of the real estate may drop as well, independent of what the peso is doing, as few people want to buy now. I am sure the peso falls even further soon. Whatever currency controls are put in place are probably intended to even out and regulate the fall in value as opposed to shoring it up permanently.
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 01:51 PM by Crazy Jim.)
09-02-2019 01:43 PM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 01:43 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  I can't imagine there is ever a good time to buy property here, unless you plan to stay here forever and don't ever want to sell.

The only intelligent way to buy real estate in Argentina is at the depth of a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression (at the bottom of the economic cycle), collect an income stream for 8-10 years, and then sell at the top of the economic cycle when people are filled with hope. Of course, that is the best way to purchase any long-term asset, i.e., in an asymmetric trade in a distressed economy. In other words, you buy when there is blood in the streets.

Legendary investor Jim Rogers once wrote, "The way of the successful investor is normally to do nothing -- not until you see money lying there, somewhere over in the corner, and all that is left for you to do is go over and pick it up."
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 03:20 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-02-2019 03:19 PM
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BalanceLife Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
1) Can foreigner own properties in BA?
2) What do we do with the property when we are not occupying it? Is AirBnb even practical.

If both are yes, maybe some of us can consider.
09-02-2019 03:51 PM
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Crazy Jim Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 03:19 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-02-2019 01:43 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  I can't imagine there is ever a good time to buy property here, unless you plan to stay here forever and don't ever want to sell.

The only intelligent way to buy real estate in Argentina is at the depth of a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression (at the bottom of the economic cycle), collect an income stream for 8-10 years, and then sell at the top of the economic cycle when people are filled with hope.
Haha well can't recall when the people of Argentina were filled with hope. But It's true if you were going to buy, then buying at the bottom of the market is best.
BalanceLife Wrote:What do we do with the property when we are not occupying it? Is AirBnb even practical.
I stayed in some Airbnb apartments of guys trying to rent out from overseas. They couldn't keep up with the repairs, and piss off renters, then get no rent, and can't do repairs. The income from renters is very hard to predict, and infrastructure here sucks. Argentina is a socialist worker's paradise and very strong pro-renter laws, so it protects Argentines who trash your apartment, but lacking in plumbing which tourists want.

Tail Gunner is right in that this time of uncertainty might be a good time to buy in Argentina, but there might be better bargains elsewhere, like Colombia, you can get in for a smaller investment, say buy a condo in a nice new building. Colombia's market was long depressed due to an armed insurrection which seems to have ended, so it should improve with time, whereas Argentina has many old buildings built in better times that are decaying and it's not like there is an armed insurrection that is going to end, it's just a downward spiral with no end in sight. And the Argentine legal system is not going to favor you in a dispute with a tenant, and if you try to sell a property after making a killing on your carpet bagging, you might have a big tax consequence, or currency controls that prevent you getting the money out of the country
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 04:41 PM by Crazy Jim.)
09-02-2019 04:33 PM
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BalanceLife Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 04:33 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  Tail Gunner is right in that this time of uncertainty might be a good time to buy in Argentina, but there might be better bargains elsewhere, like Colombia, you can get in for a smaller investment, say buy a condo in a nice new building. Colombia's market was long depressed due to an armed insurrection which seems to have ended, so it should improve with time, whereas Argentina has many old buildings built in better times that are decaying and it's not like there is an armed insurrection that is going to end, it's just a downward spiral with no end in sight. And the Argentine legal system is not going to favor you in a dispute with a tenant, and if you try to sell a property after making a killing on your carpet bagging, you might have a big tax consequence, or currency controls that prevent you getting the money out of the country

My point exactly.

Some of us are quite mobile (aka travel around) and might have some savings. This might allow us to get an apartment in some places, say Colombia, that has good growth prospect, but I can't imagine renting out as AirBnb as the time cost is not easy, and what more if you don't live there. Hence, my question is rather is there any part of the world where you imagine buying an apartment where you would stay for fun, say, three times a year, it could be your lair to bring your friend, but still worth it enough to leave it empty for the bigger part of the year.
09-02-2019 04:54 PM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 04:54 PM)BalanceLife Wrote:  Some of us are quite mobile (aka travel around) and might have some savings. This might allow us to get an apartment in some places, say Colombia, that has good growth prospect, but I can't imagine renting out as AirBnb as the time cost is not easy, and what more if you don't live there. Hence, my question is rather is there any part of the world where you imagine buying an apartment where you would stay for fun, say, three times a year, it could be your lair to bring your friend, but still worth it enough to leave it empty for the bigger part of the year.
I think one motivation to buy a property for many people in Colombia is that these are older people who want to retire somewhere less expensive where the local young women aka gold-diggers like older guys. You can often get permanent residency with the purchase of the property. So you see their goal is to live in the property and to get the visa then enjoy a cheaper lifestyle with hot young gold-diggers haha. You seem like a younger guy who isn't interested in gold-diggers (yet), and you only want to stay 90 days or less so you don't need a permanent residency. I can't see why someone in your position would want to buy a property you aren't going to use. Maybe a "time share" is better for someone like you? Or just pay as you go, I think that would be best where you are in life. If you did do it, Argentina is probably more complicated than many other places.
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 05:15 PM by Crazy Jim.)
09-02-2019 05:13 PM
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pico Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Whats a good website for BA apts selling ? any local ones (in spanish) ?
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 05:46 PM by pico.)
09-02-2019 05:45 PM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 04:33 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  Tail Gunner is right in that this time of uncertainty might be a good time to buy in Argentina

Just for the record, I did not say that. When worry and uncertainty emerges in a country, that is the time to begin to pay attention and compile information. You then wait to buy during the full-blown panic. That is not yet the case in Argentina. I previously said the following:

(09-02-2019 03:19 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  The only intelligent way to buy real estate in Argentina is at the depth of a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression (at the bottom of the economic cycle)
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2019 06:03 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-02-2019 06:01 PM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
And the papers started quoting "blue" rates on the dollar this afternoon: "Dólar Banco Nación 59, dólar blue 64"

(09-02-2019 05:45 PM)pico Wrote:  Whats a good website for BA apts selling ? any local ones (in spanish) ?

Your best bet is probably mercadolibre.com.ar in the inmuebles section.

(09-02-2019 06:01 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-02-2019 04:33 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  Tail Gunner is right in that this time of uncertainty might be a good time to buy in Argentina

Just for the record, I did not say that. When worry and uncertainty emerges in a country, that is the time to begin to pay attention and compile information. You then wait to buy during the full-blown panic. That is not yet the case in Argentina. I previously said the following:

(09-02-2019 03:19 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  The only intelligent way to buy real estate in Argentina is at the depth of a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression (at the bottom of the economic cycle)

All of the numbers say Argentina's situation still has much further to fall this run. At least a few years. Plently of folks are probably going to call false bottoms along the way.
09-02-2019 08:42 PM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
What are the indicators saying that it will fall further? I know the election is coming so things are messy, and they are likely to default the 50 billion dollar debt....
09-03-2019 04:16 AM
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Crazy Jim Offline
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
It will certainly fall further, the reason for the instability is the likelihood of default on IMF debts. Default has not happened yet. The fall in the peso now is due to uncertainty that something bad is going to happen. When the bad thing happens, the chaos will be worse. Fears will grow up until after the election. So the end of the fall will come either (1) when default happens or (2) after the election when it becomes more clear what is going to happen. Also currency controls are shoring up the peso now. Those currency controls are meant to slow the fall, not stop it, as the controls cost money to implement and won't remain forever. So the peso potentially is already lower but there is an artificial brake being applied that eventually must be released.
(09-03-2019 04:16 AM)BalanceLife Wrote:  What are the indicators saying that it will fall further? I know the election is coming so things are messy, and they are likely to default the 50 billion dollar debt....
09-03-2019 08:19 AM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 06:01 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-02-2019 04:33 PM)Crazy Jim Wrote:  Tail Gunner is right in that this time of uncertainty might be a good time to buy in Argentina

Just for the record, I did not say that. When worry and uncertainty emerges in a country, that is the time to begin to pay attention and compile information. You then wait to buy during the full-blown panic. That is not yet the case in Argentina. I previously said the following:

(09-02-2019 03:19 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  The only intelligent way to buy real estate in Argentina is at the depth of a 1998–2002-style Argentine Great Depression (at the bottom of the economic cycle)
To me, "this time of uncertainty" would include a future "full blown panic" when the market is at its lowest. And again you are right that a time of uncertainty is not a good time to invest. In other words, if you are stuck in the Argentine market then the bottom of an economic cycle is the best time to buy when prices are lowest. But this is the presupposition that things are not better somewhere else. Obviously the reason for low prices is the risk adverse Argentines want to move their money somewhere safer so they are willing to sell property at lower prices. Because they predict that the property is very likely to lose value in the future. There may be some other individuals who are less risk adverse and are betting the property will retain value, or unable to expatriate their money and think investing in property is better than keeping cash under their mattress. Since you do have a choice to not invest in Argentina, that would seem the safer thing haha. Even if your Argentine property maintains value or increases in value, there are a lot of tax risks and liquidity risks, legal risks... there is no guarantee you can get the cash out of Argentina regardless the theoretical value of the property. If I was going to invest in real estate, I would choose a market that has a trend towards increased prosperity, and laws that favor investors and property owners, rather than try to take advantage of an economic downturn in a socialist economy.
(This post was last modified: 09-03-2019 08:44 AM by Crazy Jim.)
09-03-2019 08:32 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
Airbnb’s in Buenos Aires don’t seem to be any cheaper than when I checked a month or two ago. I wonder if owners are adjusting the price to maintain stable rents since it’s mostly foreign tourists anyway. I’m sure they all talk to each other and have agreed to maintain prices.

A decent place is still over $1000/month...

Does Argentina have oil? If they don’t have oil they’re fucked. Even Venezuela with oil couldn’t climb out of the same situation. I guess they had sanctions to though.

So maybe Argentina will rebound like it always seems to do. This has happened a few times before. Didn’t they to make a new currency at least once. Maybe that was Chile...
(This post was last modified: 09-03-2019 08:51 AM by BuckFutter.)
09-03-2019 08:33 AM
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RE: Argentina public Service Announcement
(09-02-2019 05:45 PM)pico Wrote:  Whats a good website for BA apts selling ? any local ones (in spanish) ?
There are many on Facebook, you can look at the advertisements, in the neighborhood you want, and you will see what agency is selling and information for that agency's website
09-03-2019 08:50 AM
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