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Ukrainian Bond Investing
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Blake2 Offline
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Ukrainian Bond Investing
Just wanted to share some financial info. Not the expert here, but I'm convinced its a good buy.

-----------------------------------


The Ukraine rating is B-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 486.38 and implied probability of default is 8.11%.


Matturity BID Price BID Yield ASK Price ASK Yield Yield
23.10.2019 102.071 4.5000 102.489 1.5000 SIM

30.01.2020 101.472 5.5000 102.702 2.5000 SIM

13.05.2020 101.068 6.5000 102.546 4.2500 YTM

09.07.2020 94.768 6.5000 96.516 4.2500 SIM


=====================================

5.5 percent sounds pretty good on that short term bond.


There are also Hyrvnia denominated (local currency) bonds with up to 19% yield, that are far riskier. (Potential upside due to improving? economic conditions but also a risk with a notoriously unstable currency).


Overall, this seems like a pretty good bet for stable returns and taking a look at.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
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(This post was last modified: 09-03-2019 01:29 PM by Blake2.)
09-03-2019 01:28 PM
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-03-2019 01:28 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  Just wanted to share some financial info. Not the expert here, but I'm convinced its a good buy.

-----------------------------------


The Ukraine rating is B-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 486.38 and implied probability of default is 8.11%.


Matturity BID Price BID Yield ASK Price ASK Yield Yield
23.10.2019 102.071 4.5000 102.489 1.5000 SIM

30.01.2020 101.472 5.5000 102.702 2.5000 SIM

13.05.2020 101.068 6.5000 102.546 4.2500 YTM

09.07.2020 94.768 6.5000 96.516 4.2500 SIM


=====================================

5.5 percent sounds pretty good on that short term bond.


There are also Hyrvnia denominated (local currency) bonds with up to 19% yield, that are far riskier. (Potential upside due to improving? economic conditions but also a risk with a notoriously unstable currency).


Overall, this seems like a pretty good bet for stable returns and taking a look at.


Inflation here is running at over 10%. Every bank is controlled by private interests - group loans are prevalent and I think any serious examination of the Ukrainian banking system would be pretty terrifying. Without reform of the judiciary FDI is likely to remain a pipe dream. The country owes vast amounts of money to creditors that they are completely over a barrel to. The National Bank was reportedly having to go to its creditors every 3 hours at the height of the crisis in 2014, just to be able to prop up the financial system.

With the added uncertainty in the east, and the lack of clarity as to the direction the current administration is likely to take (I like many others have been pleasantly impressed so far though), I would personally want significantly more than 5.5% to take on an investment as risky as Ukraine.
09-04-2019 05:46 AM
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Blake2 Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-04-2019 05:46 AM)H1N1 Wrote:  
(09-03-2019 01:28 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  Just wanted to share some financial info. Not the expert here, but I'm convinced its a good buy.

-----------------------------------


The Ukraine rating is B-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 486.38 and implied probability of default is 8.11%.


Matturity BID Price BID Yield ASK Price ASK Yield Yield
23.10.2019 102.071 4.5000 102.489 1.5000 SIM

30.01.2020 101.472 5.5000 102.702 2.5000 SIM

13.05.2020 101.068 6.5000 102.546 4.2500 YTM

09.07.2020 94.768 6.5000 96.516 4.2500 SIM


=====================================

5.5 percent sounds pretty good on that short term bond.


There are also Hyrvnia denominated (local currency) bonds with up to 19% yield, that are far riskier. (Potential upside due to improving? economic conditions but also a risk with a notoriously unstable currency).


Overall, this seems like a pretty good bet for stable returns and taking a look at.


Inflation here is running at over 10%. Every bank is controlled by private interests - group loans are prevalent and I think any serious examination of the Ukrainian banking system would be pretty terrifying. Without reform of the judiciary FDI is likely to remain a pipe dream. The country owes vast amounts of money to creditors that they are completely over a barrel to. The National Bank was reportedly having to go to its creditors every 3 hours at the height of the crisis in 2014, just to be able to prop up the financial system.

With the added uncertainty in the east, and the lack of clarity as to the direction the current administration is likely to take (I like many others have been pleasantly impressed so far though), I would personally want significantly more than 5.5% to take on an investment as risky as Ukraine.

Agree with all of the above. The current administration does seem to be investment and economy focused so maybe they can get things done.

At the very least, I think they are not likely to collapse in the short term.

“We feel cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the economy,”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...an-upswing




The IIF expects Ukraine’s national currency to remain “broadly stable” in the near term, with high interest rates and slowing inflation likely attracting more interest in hryvnia-denominated bonds.
https://emerging-europe.com/news/iif-for...icking-up/


We'll have to wait and see, but better guaranteed returns are hard to come by these days.

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2019 11:26 PM by Blake2.)
09-04-2019 11:25 PM
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-04-2019 11:25 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  We'll have to wait and see, but better guaranteed returns are hard to come by these days.

This is the mistake.
09-05-2019 04:51 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/
(This post was last modified: 09-06-2019 12:12 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-06-2019 12:11 AM
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
I'm making 18% on my UAH deposit account at Privet Bank (#1bank by assests)

I wanted to buy bonds but the Ukraine central bank seems to only issue starting at 4 mill uah to investment houses (Dragon Investment as example) not the local bank

So I went with "deposit accounts" instead of bonds at banks.

All banks have these deposit accounts which are in Euro or USD (low rates of 1.5 to 2% and I never saw 5%) AND the high rate 18% uah accounts

The goal of central bank is to bring bank rate down from 18 to around 8% and the last bank meeting the rate had already gone from 18 to 17.5 ( I think the bank meets 4x a year and could cut 25 basis pts at a time)

The uah has been strengthening against usd lately so the bank may lower % faster

Regardless I have a diversified portfolio and except a little risk ( deposit investments insured by gov up 100k... maybe more)

If it wasn't for Ukraine tax skim off the deposit interest payout done automatically by bank or broker
a 100% return on investment in a uah deposit can be done in under 5 years

There is also big multinational banks in Ukraine now(safer) Ralfieison (Austrian) is there doing good business.

not spellcheked....and I am no financial genius

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09-06-2019 04:38 AM
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H1N1 Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-06-2019 04:38 AM)Incubus Wrote:  I'm making 18% on my UAH deposit account at Privet Bank (#1bank by assests)

I wanted to buy bonds but the Ukraine central bank seems to only issue starting at 4 mill uah to investment houses (Dragon Investment as example) not the local bank

So I went with "deposit accounts" instead of bonds at banks.

All banks have these deposit accounts which are in Euro or USD (low rates of 1.5 to 2% and I never saw 5%) AND the high rate 18% uah accounts

The goal of central bank is to bring bank rate down from 18 to around 8% and the last bank meeting the rate had already gone from 18 to 17.5 ( I think the bank meets 4x a year and could cut 25 basis pts at a time)

The uah has been strengthening against usd lately so the bank may lower % faster

Regardless I have a diversified portfolio and except a little risk ( deposit investments insured by gov up 100k... maybe more)

If it wasn't for Ukraine tax skim off the deposit interest payout done automatically by bank or broker
a 100% return on investment in a uah deposit can be done in under 5 years

There is also big multinational banks in Ukraine now(safer) Ralfieison (Austrian) is there doing good business.

not spellcheked....and I am no financial genius

Just because it isn't clear from your post, I wanted to clarify/make you aware if you are not:

Ukrainian deposit protection is up to 6000 euros, not 100k. There is very little deposit protection there, doesn't matter if it is local bank or international.
09-06-2019 08:44 AM
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Blake2 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-06-2019 04:38 AM)Incubus Wrote:  I'm making 18% on my UAH deposit account at Privet Bank (#1bank by assests)

I wanted to buy bonds but the Ukraine central bank seems to only issue starting at 4 mill uah to investment houses (Dragon Investment as example) not the local bank

So I went with "deposit accounts" instead of bonds at banks.

All banks have these deposit accounts which are in Euro or USD (low rates of 1.5 to 2% and I never saw 5%) AND the high rate 18% uah accounts

The goal of central bank is to bring bank rate down from 18 to around 8% and the last bank meeting the rate had already gone from 18 to 17.5 ( I think the bank meets 4x a year and could cut 25 basis pts at a time)

The uah has been strengthening against usd lately so the bank may lower % faster

Regardless I have a diversified portfolio and except a little risk ( deposit investments insured by gov up 100k... maybe more)

If it wasn't for Ukraine tax skim off the deposit interest payout done automatically by bank or broker
a 100% return on investment in a uah deposit can be done in under 5 years

There is also big multinational banks in Ukraine now(safer) Ralfieison (Austrian) is there doing good business.

not spellcheked....and I am no financial genius

Things must have changed since you asked, because the investment houses now offer a minimal investment of 200,000 UAH (under 10,000 usd).

The bonds are tax free whereas the deposit accounts' profits are taxed at 18% like you said.

The dollar denominated bonds are at 5.5% for short term, more for longer term.

The UAH denominated bonds are 19 % if I remember right, also tax free.


Just looked up the panama bonds quickly but those are 20 year bonds whereas Ukraine's is a short term one (3 months). (Does that make a difference?) They do have some excellent opportunities in Panama for sure.

Also found this:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fun...file/VEMBX

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
09-06-2019 12:34 PM
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mammal Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-06-2019 12:11 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/

In Argentina,a few years ago babkswent bust. Deposits in USD (not pesos) were paid off in pesos at an exchange rate ofabout 30 cents on the dollar. Panama cannot create US dollars.
09-06-2019 12:52 PM
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-06-2019 12:52 PM)mammal Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:11 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/

In Argentina,a few years ago babkswent bust. Deposits in USD (not pesos) were paid off in pesos at an exchange rate ofabout 30 cents on the dollar. Panama cannot create US dollars.

Both Panama and Ukraine are rated as "junk" grade debt.
Ukriane was upgraded recently from B- to B, with a positive outlook.

"Fitch expects the government debt to decline to 47.9 percent of GDP by the end of 2019, down from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2016 and below the 57.5 grade ‘B’ median."

Short term investing seems reasonable, although in the long term a relative economic decline is expected as for all of Europe.

"The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030."

Statistics for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia are even worse in terms of aging.
"In fact, the 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations in the world are all in Eastern Europe."
https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-w...rn-europe/

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
09-09-2019 11:16 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-09-2019 11:16 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:52 PM)mammal Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:11 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/

In Argentina,a few years ago babkswent bust. Deposits in USD (not pesos) were paid off in pesos at an exchange rate ofabout 30 cents on the dollar. Panama cannot create US dollars.

Both Panama and Ukraine are rated as "junk" grade debt.
Ukriane was upgraded recently from B- to B, with a positive outlook.

"Fitch expects the government debt to decline to 47.9 percent of GDP by the end of 2019, down from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2016 and below the 57.5 grade ‘B’ median."

Short term investing seems reasonable, although in the long term a relative economic decline is expected as for all of Europe.

"The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030."

Statistics for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia are even worse in terms of aging.
"In fact, the 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations in the world are all in Eastern Europe."
https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-w...rn-europe/

You need to re-read my original post. I suggested CDs in Panama, not Panamanian bonds. Panama is the banking hub for Latin America and Panama has the Panama Canal as a cash cow and it has one of the fastest growing economies in the world and probably the most stable economy in Latin America. Few countries can match Panama’s growth dynamism or economic stability. Panama City is currently building two more bridges over the river.

I cannot say that I know much about Panama bonds, but I would be quite surprised to learn that Panama bonds were rated as junk status -- because the Panama Canal, which is unique in the world, is an incredible cash cow. In fact, I just took a quick look and read the following regarding Panama bonds:

Quote:Panama Canal: Risk Rating Confirmed

Friday, August 16, 2019

Because of its financial and competitive strength, the rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed that the risk rating as an issuer of long-term debt is "A", with a stable outlook.

The ratings reflect an underlying asset that is critical not only for Panama, but also for international trade, as evidenced by its stable volume performance, solid competitive position and well-diversified cargo mix, the ratings company explained.

https://www.centralamericadata.com/en/ar..._Confirmed


If you have information to the contrary, please post a link to it.
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2019 11:41 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-09-2019 11:37 PM
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-09-2019 11:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 11:16 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:52 PM)mammal Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:11 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/

In Argentina,a few years ago babkswent bust. Deposits in USD (not pesos) were paid off in pesos at an exchange rate ofabout 30 cents on the dollar. Panama cannot create US dollars.

Both Panama and Ukraine are rated as "junk" grade debt.
Ukriane was upgraded recently from B- to B, with a positive outlook.

"Fitch expects the government debt to decline to 47.9 percent of GDP by the end of 2019, down from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2016 and below the 57.5 grade ‘B’ median."

Short term investing seems reasonable, although in the long term a relative economic decline is expected as for all of Europe.

"The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030."

Statistics for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia are even worse in terms of aging.
"In fact, the 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations in the world are all in Eastern Europe."
https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-w...rn-europe/

You need to re-read my original post. I suggested CDs in Panama, not Panamanian bonds. Panama is the banking hub for Latin America and Panama has the Panama Canal as a cash cow and it has one of the fastest growing economies in the world and probably the most stable economy in Latin America. Few countries can match Panama’s growth dynamism or economic stability. Panama City is currently building two more bridges over the river.

I cannot say that I know much about Panama bonds, but I would be quite surprised to learn that Panama bonds were rated as junk status -- because the Panama Canal, which is unique in the world, is an incredible cash cow. In fact, I just took a quick look and read the following regarding Panama bonds:

Quote:Panama Canal: Risk Rating Confirmed

Friday, August 16, 2019

Because of its financial and competitive strength, the rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed that the risk rating as an issuer of long-term debt is "A", with a stable outlook.

The ratings reflect an underlying asset that is critical not only for Panama, but also for international trade, as evidenced by its stable volume performance, solid competitive position and well-diversified cargo mix, the ratings company explained.

https://www.centralamericadata.com/en/ar..._Confirmed


If you have information to the contrary, please post a link to it.

Thanks for the good info.


But do you have a link to a short term CD? I can't find a 3 month or 6 month CD. I was specifically looking for a short term investment as liquidity is key. That's what made the Ukrainian bonds attractive.


I rechecked the Panama bonds, https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/moody...des-panama
Yes, its investment grade now at Baa2. I guess Panama is a looking like a good option. Do you pay taxes on the bond income or is it tax free?

A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2019 11:55 PM by Blake2.)
09-11-2019 11:43 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: Ukrainian Bond Investing
(09-11-2019 11:43 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 11:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 11:16 PM)Blake2 Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:52 PM)mammal Wrote:  
(09-06-2019 12:11 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  This is lunacy. A 5.5% yield on bonds in a high risk country such as Ukraine with a high risk currency, when you can get a 4%-5% return on CDs in a low risk country such as Panama with a comparatively low risk currency (Panama uses the U.S. dollar as its currency).

https://kraemerlaw.com/en/immigration/pa...-passport/

In Argentina,a few years ago babkswent bust. Deposits in USD (not pesos) were paid off in pesos at an exchange rate ofabout 30 cents on the dollar. Panama cannot create US dollars.

Both Panama and Ukraine are rated as "junk" grade debt.
Ukriane was upgraded recently from B- to B, with a positive outlook.

"Fitch expects the government debt to decline to 47.9 percent of GDP by the end of 2019, down from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2016 and below the 57.5 grade ‘B’ median."

Short term investing seems reasonable, although in the long term a relative economic decline is expected as for all of Europe.

"The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the European Union will experience a 14% decrease in its workforce and a 7% decrease in its consumer populations by 2030."

Statistics for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia are even worse in terms of aging.
"In fact, the 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations in the world are all in Eastern Europe."
https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-w...rn-europe/

You need to re-read my original post. I suggested CDs in Panama, not Panamanian bonds. Panama is the banking hub for Latin America and Panama has the Panama Canal as a cash cow and it has one of the fastest growing economies in the world and probably the most stable economy in Latin America. Few countries can match Panama’s growth dynamism or economic stability. Panama City is currently building two more bridges over the river.

I cannot say that I know much about Panama bonds, but I would be quite surprised to learn that Panama bonds were rated as junk status -- because the Panama Canal, which is unique in the world, is an incredible cash cow. In fact, I just took a quick look and read the following regarding Panama bonds:

Quote:Panama Canal: Risk Rating Confirmed

Friday, August 16, 2019

Because of its financial and competitive strength, the rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed that the risk rating as an issuer of long-term debt is "A", with a stable outlook.

The ratings reflect an underlying asset that is critical not only for Panama, but also for international trade, as evidenced by its stable volume performance, solid competitive position and well-diversified cargo mix, the ratings company explained.

https://www.centralamericadata.com/en/ar..._Confirmed


If you have information to the contrary, please post a link to it.

Thanks for the good info.


But do you have a link to a short term CD? I can't find a 3 month or 6 month CD. I was specifically looking for a short term investment as liquidity is key. That's what made the Ukrainian bonds attractive.


I rechecked the Panama bonds, https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/moody...des-panama
Yes, its investment grade now. I guess Panama is a looking like a good option. Do you pay taxes on the bond income or is it tax free?

You must either examine Panamanian bank and credit union web sites (and know some Spanish) or hire a law firm as an introducer (which you may need to do anyhow to establish a bank account). Any bank offering five-year CDs will also offer shorter term CDs at lower interest rates. The Wild West days of Panamanian banking are long over. Much documentation is now required. For example, here is one such firm (I do not know anything about them):

Quote:Certain credit unions in Panama are currently paying as much as 8.25% interest rate on 5 year CD’s with US$100,000 to US$200,000, and up to 8.5% interest rate for deposits above US$200,000 (the interest is simple interest, paid monthly, not compounded). Contact Us for an introduction. We can assist you to setup an account with a Panama credit union in 1 business day.

Panama credit unions are also offering “retirement savings” accounts, which pay 9% interest (compounded) for 5 year terms, with no minimum deposit, however, you must leave the principal and interest in the account for the entire 5 year term, otherwise, if you withdraw the funds early (prior to the 5 year term), you lose the interest.

https://www.panama-offshore-services.com...posits.htm
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2019 12:04 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-12-2019 12:01 AM
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