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Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
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bucky Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-08-2019 11:53 PM)Graft Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 01:56 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:58 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:47 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  People keep acting as if all that debt has to be paid off by next year. Debt is healthy and like I said, biggest powerhouse in the world today, and the same will be true 50 years from now. Somebody bump me

They said the same thing about the Roman Empire. You don't seem to have a clue about economics.

The USD will collapse. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when.

lmao, there's a whole niche of internet marketing that is based off of making money of old, gullible people who have been convinced to think that the next crisis/economic collapse/civil war/ice age is coming. By drawing parallels to the Roman empire I imagine you may be part of that crowd. There will be an inevitable recession of some sort (as there has always been) but the US will recover and come back stronger, as it always has. Even mentioning the Roman downfall is asinine.


If this forum sticks around and I don't die, i'll gladly bump you every 5 years as a reminder.

One of the worst mistakes that I made in my life was overdosing on Schiff/zerohedge/Faber when I graduated college, avoided the stock market, collected gold, and worked low paying jobs in anticipation of "The Big Collapse."

I graduated with about $30k in savings from working college jobs and living at home. Had I put that into FANG stocks I would have a nest egg well into six figures and probably own a house right now.

A lot of these guys make technical sense but it's extremely obvious that they have no fucking idea when there is going to be a huge collapse, so they miss out on an entire epic bull run. A broken clock is right twice a day.

I've been that guy too. Always expecting a collapse somewhere in the near future that never materializes. Used it as an excuse to not contribute to my 401k when I was in my 20s...I hate to think about what I'd have saved now if I hadn't been so dumb.

To clarify, I don't think I'll need to sell gold or stop the 401k with the new car, but who knows. I was mostly interested to see what the forum members think, and who really believes a collapse is coming in the next few decades. Vox Day is guaranteeing one in the 2030s and has actually advised young people not contribute to their 401ks. Then again, he also predicted the Republicans would pick up seats in the house in 2018.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
09-10-2019 11:29 PM
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SilentOne Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-10-2019 11:29 PM)bucky Wrote:  I've been that guy too. Always expecting a collapse somewhere in the near future that never materializes. Used it as an excuse to not contribute to my 401k when I was in my 20s...I hate to think about what I'd have saved now if I hadn't been so dumb.

I've come to realize that time in the market is better than trying to time the market. The latter tends to be me losing more money. That's my experience.

Now, OP, if you have to really sell something. Sell the car. Out of those 3 things mentioned, it's the one thing that's depreciating in value moment to moment. I think living a minimalist lifestyle is better than driving an expensive dream car.
09-10-2019 11:50 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I never bought into a 401k, or a pension when I had the chance to do both. Tools used to keep you pseudo-satiated whilst the puppeteers continue raping with abandon. Also it keeps the family separated. For epochs humans have cared for their elderly, nurtured those who once nurtured them. Now? Now we ship them off to retirement communities and hospices and crematoriums like an automated assembly. A lot of guys just want to be good financially on their own, no kids, no problems, no marriage, no bs, just workout, drink, sex with hos, etc etc, but we all grow old.

I would rather live and die as a pauper than live as a comfortable serf pretending to be a prince in his own make-believe world where as long as I shut up I can keep MUH pension and MUH 401k and MUH social security. The turnaround for this is I still have to build a huge family, one that I will take care of, and who will one day take care of me if I make it to old age.

Fuck 401k, fuck pensions, start your own businesses or trades and become recession-proof. Keep starving that beast. Precious metals aren't too bad to have, I imagine a combination and hefty crypto will see you through bad times easily enough, if you can hang out countryside and do your own thing.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2019 12:46 AM by MusicForThePiano.)
09-11-2019 12:45 AM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Keep in mind that millions of people were having this discussion in 2007 and millions more were having it in 2011. I know I was. I uprooted my life to live in the sticks on the presumption of a total Mad Max scenario many years ago, and it never came to pass. For me it was a happy close of a chapter anyway because I realised I loved life out here on its own merits more than I enjoyed the financial opportunities the city had to offer, but for people genuinely still balancing pursuit of what they want vs flight from potential danger then it's a tough issue.

My take is that at a bare minimum, if you believe that a collapse is imminent then you're wasting your resources buying gold. Silver is better but trade-able goods are king UNLESS you're likely to need to flee your current location, at which point the question is less "what do I need" and more "why am I still in this location".

If you live in America then a crappy new Hi-point 9mm and a box of ammo is going to be worth ten times its current market value in gold when things go bad. Same goes for anything that people will become desperate for in hard times. Food. Medicine. The real kicker being that you'll need that stuff too, and having it on hand beats the crap out of hitting the streets during dark times with a bunch of gold coins in your pocket, hyper-authoritarian law enforcement on the streets, the ever-present threat of simply getting rolled on your way to/from a trade or robbed when you get there.

Bitcoin? Fuhgeddaboutit. While there is internet there is no real collapse, and while there is no real collapse there is still ever hungrier and ever more violent, authoritarian government, and while there is hungry government and internet there is tracking. Trading in bitcoin is an invitation to end up in a cell having your fingernails pulled until you give up your digital wallet. If the internet goes completely kaput then you basically lose everything anyway.

But this is all relevant to OP's question about a collapse. A wimpy recession or even a severe depression is a different ball game. If you're tired of the rat race and your fear of the future is overwhelming your enjoyment of the present then it's best to simply aim to get out as quickly as possible, even if you have to take a fairly severe financial hit. An hour too early will cost you a bit but a minute too late can cost you everything. Stop thinking "timing the collapse" and start thinking "peace of mind". The course will become more clear after that. This is not something you can weigh simply in financial terms, anyway. There are political and demographic issues to worry about at a bare minimum.

One thing is for sure. Learning to be happy with less is a real blessing when society begins to spiral the drain.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
09-11-2019 03:44 AM
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Post: #30
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 12:45 AM)MusicForThePiano Wrote:  MUH pension and MUH 401k and MUH social security.

You have to be deluded to think this will be around by the time you reach retirement age (which they control anyway). Do not contribute if possible. If your funds are already locked in or rules dictate your employer has to contribute (like in Australia) set up a self managed fund and buy bitcoin to avoid confiscation.
09-11-2019 04:24 AM
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Post: #31
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-08-2019 11:53 PM)Graft Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 01:56 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:58 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:47 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  People keep acting as if all that debt has to be paid off by next year. Debt is healthy and like I said, biggest powerhouse in the world today, and the same will be true 50 years from now. Somebody bump me

They said the same thing about the Roman Empire. You don't seem to have a clue about economics.

The USD will collapse. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when.

lmao, there's a whole niche of internet marketing that is based off of making money of old, gullible people who have been convinced to think that the next crisis/economic collapse/civil war/ice age is coming. By drawing parallels to the Roman empire I imagine you may be part of that crowd. There will be an inevitable recession of some sort (as there has always been) but the US will recover and come back stronger, as it always has. Even mentioning the Roman downfall is asinine.


If this forum sticks around and I don't die, i'll gladly bump you every 5 years as a reminder.

One of the worst mistakes that I made in my life was overdosing on Schiff/zerohedge/Faber when I graduated college, avoided the stock market, collected gold, and worked low paying jobs in anticipation of "The Big Collapse."

I graduated with about $30k in savings from working college jobs and living at home. Had I put that into FANG stocks I would have a nest egg well into six figures and probably own a house right now.

A lot of these guys make technical sense but it's extremely obvious that they have no fucking idea when there is going to be a huge collapse, so they miss out on an entire epic bull run. A broken clock is right twice a day.

Since 2008 I'm closely following some Austrian gold shill predicting the collapse being right around the corner since forever. Other than that he offers a pretty good non-mainstream news digest in my native language, so I don't have to follow the cycle myself.

I see those as canary in the coal mine now. I start worrying when they go quiet...
09-11-2019 04:35 AM
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Polniy_Sostav Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-08-2019 01:27 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:31 PM)JiggyLordJr Wrote:  Keep the gold, stop 401k payments.

With Social Security drying up (if it's not already a desert), who knows where they'll be taking from to keep the gravy train running.

The great thing about gold is it can only be taken out of your cold, dead hands.

Bitcoin is 100000x harder to seize than gold. FDR made holding gold illegal in the past, no reason to think it won't happen again.

Can you please explain in simple words how bitcoin is harder to seize than gold ? ( I don't have any knowledge of bitcoin aka the scam of the 21st century )
09-11-2019 06:07 AM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?
09-11-2019 05:48 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Going to break my response into 3 parts:

Part 1 will address your question narrowly

Part 2 will give broader advise

Part 3 will address some of the other responses I strongly disagree with

Part 1:

If this question is looked at as a truly binary choice between selling gold or reducing/elimination a 401K contribution, without more details I would say sell the gold before you reduce your 401K contribution to the point where you are not taking full advantage of your 401K employer match. If you are not taking full advantage of the match, you are sacrificing real, tax-deferred money that will gain value or earn interest.

The only way I would be wrong here is if gold is set to skyrocket. That could be the case, but in all likelihood, it is not. Gold is historically volatile and should not be thought of as an 'investment'. It is a speculative hedge in that it is a medium whereby you can store value in an asset that will always be worth something, though it is not without short-term risk.

Let's say gold does skyrocket. You can sell your gold and then you will pay taxes and broker fees, which is why gold would really have to go up considerably in order to be worth more than a 401K contribution that includes an employer match as well as a tax benefit (either tax-deferred or Roth).

If you can solve your cash flow problem by reducing your 401K contribution without sacrificing your employer match, that could very well be your best option since you will incur broker fees and taxes when you sell your gold. Also, if you are having a hard time making a car payment, I cannot imagine that you are making the kind of money where the tax benefit of contributing an excess to your 401K is significant. In the U.S., you typically don't pay a high effective tax rate unless your are earning significant money. A single person with no dependents, no mortgage and no student loan interest is not going to be much of a net federal income tax-payer until he reaches high five figures.

Part II:

Moving beyond the binary choice, you should find the best way out of this car payment, which was clearly a mistake. If you're absolutely in love with the car, you can look for other ways to reduce your fixed expenses such as cancelling cable or other subscriptions.

The piece of information I am missing is the type of car. If it's an expensive car that may run for a long time and hold it's value reasonably well, finding a way to pay for it might not be terrible as long as you keep it for a long time. If you default on the loan or trade it in for a functioning POS, it will solve your cash flow problems in the short-term, but may not be the optimal financial decision in the longer term (assuming you need to have a car to earn money and live).

Making good financial decisions is all about considering what you're giving up and what that means in the longer term (referred to in microeconomics as 'opportunity cost').

Part III:

Here I am just addressing various statements and topics that came up in this thread:

The 'Collapse': If you think we are going to have an economic collapse (not a societal collapse), the best thing to do is to live well within your means and maintain different avenues for focusing your energy productively. Keeping your fixed expenses lower than you can currently afford means you can absorb a reduction in your income without having to worry about paying for food and housing.

Having alternative ways of making money is also a good hedge against a bad recession that might mean you lose your current primary income source. Are you handy or have some other skill you can monetize if you lost your current full-time job?

If we have a societal collapse and/or a catastrophic event like an EMP attack or the underground volcano in Yellowstone erupting, that will mean that guns, ammunition and allies will be the most valuable commodities followed by renewable sources of food and clean water (you can use the former to seize the latter).

"401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

"Crypto is the future bro": Crypto is a speculative asset. It is worth whatever people think it's worth and that makes it volatile. It is not money because it is not legal tender. The government can outlaw it any moment and they would if it threatened the government's power in any meaningful way. That would reduce it's value to basically zero. It would also be worthless if we ever had an EMP attack or a natural solar event that wiped out our power grid.

It is generally a good idea to have enough cash on hand to avoid paying interest for anything other than a mortgage (or car if you are not quite at the level of wealth where you can by your cars outright). You do not want more cash than you need, but it is good to have a healthy amount. I frequently save money on larger purchases by paying cash rather than borrowing or charging.

Someone made the point that saving when you're young is stupid since you can die young. I guess that's true if you do in fact die young, but I can tell you that I am glad I made good financial choices. I can enjoy my 30's without any financial stress. Yes, you could die young, but planning to do so seems pretty stupid to me.
09-11-2019 06:33 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 06:07 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 01:27 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Bitcoin is 100000x harder to seize than gold. FDR made holding gold illegal in the past, no reason to think it won't happen again.

Can you please explain in simple words how bitcoin is harder to seize than gold ? ( I don't have any knowledge of bitcoin aka the scam of the 21st century )

Yes please explain. All these digital currencies are the same to me. I prefer to have some kind of physical cash on hand.

Plus if the markets were to crash to 0, we would have bigger problems on our hands and the last thing you need to worry about are the balances of retirement accounts. This peaceful era would likely be over with and there would be chaos. A nation full of reckless riots, rape, and murder.

You are far better off stocking water, guns, a knife, and canned foods like I mentioned earlier.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2019 07:22 PM by SilentOne.)
09-11-2019 07:21 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 06:07 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 01:27 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:31 PM)JiggyLordJr Wrote:  Keep the gold, stop 401k payments.

With Social Security drying up (if it's not already a desert), who knows where they'll be taking from to keep the gravy train running.

The great thing about gold is it can only be taken out of your cold, dead hands.

Bitcoin is 100000x harder to seize than gold. FDR made holding gold illegal in the past, no reason to think it won't happen again.

Can you please explain in simple words how bitcoin is harder to seize than gold ? ( I don't have any knowledge of bitcoin aka the scam of the 21st century )

Lol
09-11-2019 10:32 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 06:33 PM)MustafaJoMama Wrote:  "401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

I enjoyed your post, a wonderful reality check for the most part. However the government seizing 401ks is more plausible than you may think:

"The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money?"

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/calpers-on-the-brink-of-insolvency/

Of course, this would constitute outright theft, but history shows us that desperate governments will resort to desperate measures in their attempts to retain power. Even if it means outright property confiscation and eroding the rule of law.
09-11-2019 10:48 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
There's going to be a lot of Greek bail-ins and Cyprus haircuts before you guys hit the bottom.

If you can't stand in front of it with a gun then it's not really yours.

Continuity of elite control is king, and all assets will be looted to that end starting from what is easiest to take to what is hardest. Rebellion happens somewhere along the way.

Rest assured the powers that be will literally confiscate and sell your living organs before they give up their mansions, assuming you don't put up a fight in the meanwhile.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2019 11:23 PM by Leonard D Neubache.)
09-11-2019 11:16 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 10:48 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 06:33 PM)MustafaJoMama Wrote:  "401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

I enjoyed your post, a wonderful reality check for the most part. However the government seizing 401ks is more plausible than you may think:

"The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money?"

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/calpers-on-the-brink-of-insolvency/

Of course, this would constitute outright theft, but history shows us that desperate governments will resort to desperate measures in their attempts to retain power. Even if it means outright property confiscation and eroding the rule of law.

That's the thing. Whenever I bring up 401k accounts, most people automatically reply "gotta do it, it's free money." I'm loathe to pass up "free money" too but if we really believe in a collapse that money is going to be completely gone once it comes. When I lived in the FSU, I had people I knew show me their bank books from before the fall of the USSR, often with the equivalent of tens of thousands of USD in Soviet rubles, all gone overnight. If we ever have our collapse we won't even have the bank books because it's all digital now.

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09-12-2019 08:13 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-12-2019 08:13 AM)bucky Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 10:48 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 06:33 PM)MustafaJoMama Wrote:  "401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

I enjoyed your post, a wonderful reality check for the most part. However the government seizing 401ks is more plausible than you may think:

"The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money?"

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/calpers-on-the-brink-of-insolvency/

Of course, this would constitute outright theft, but history shows us that desperate governments will resort to desperate measures in their attempts to retain power. Even if it means outright property confiscation and eroding the rule of law.

That's the thing. Whenever I bring up 401k accounts, most people automatically reply "gotta do it, it's free money." I'm loathe to pass up "free money" too but if we really believe in a collapse that money is going to be completely gone once it comes. When I lived in the FSU, I had people I knew show me their bank books from before the fall of the USSR, often with the equivalent of tens of thousands of USD in Soviet rubles, all gone overnight. If we ever have our collapse we won't even have the bank books because it's all digital now.
Most Americans have a very naive perspective on life. I’m glad I was raised by foreigners who knew how evil people could be and taught me to be self sufficient.
09-12-2019 12:48 PM
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Post: #41
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
The problem with worrying about "the collapse" is you don't know when, and you don't know to what degree.

Guys who predict the the collapse talk as if they know something that no one else know. Yes we all know as great as the Roman empire was it, it eventually fall. As powerful as united states is, our reign will not be forever. But as to when it will happen? In 1 month, 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, you would be a fool and arrogant to think you know.

And if you are concerned about that level of walking dead social economical collapse, you might as well go buy a farm and stock up on AR15s.

But if we are just talking the stock market. The Fed can keep pumping funny money QE to prop up the stock market. The market can run up another 20%-30% than even if goes into a catastrophic collapse and drop 90% like in the great depression, it still eventually bounced back. As long as you don't panic sell at the bottom, you probably suffer a bad short term loss of 50%, and if you stick it out, you will recover 100% or better. But more likely in modern economy, worst case scenario, the market won't even nose dive more than 30-40%.

As to 401K, yes it is free money if you have employer matching, and everyone should maximize it. The only reason not to maximize it is if you don't even have a 6 month emergency fund. Then you should have some cash in hand, then start funding you 401K. Someone already illustrated perfectly. With 100% employer matching, it's like getting a 100% return. What kind of investment gives you that high of a guaranteed return. And we are not even talking about compounding that 100% over many years. And you can't compare 401K to government pension plans. Yes pension plans are known to bankrupt, but 401K is your money. You can even take it out today or tomorrow you just have to pay a little penalty on it. With the 100% employer match, even account for the penalty you'll still come out ahead.

In terms of accessing your funds during a catastrophic digital economic freeze out. I don't know if getting to you bitcoin would be much easier than accessing your institutional investment account, maybe, maybe not. Sure you can throw a bit into bitcoin, have some cash in a safe, etc just to give yourself some options. Again we are getting close to walking dead discussion.

If you are young, you have 30 year investment horizon in your 401K to weather any market volatility. If you are old and worried, just put your 401K in cash/money market/bond. No one says your 401K has to be 100% in the stock market.

My plan? Max my tax deferred retirement account, have enough after tax money to invest in real estate and other investments, have some emergency fund. And just for Sh-t and giggles, I am thinking of buying a cross bow in case all goes to hell and I have to shoot zombies or hunt for food Smile
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2019 06:42 PM by Excalibur.)
09-12-2019 06:39 PM
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Post: #42
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 05:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?

Of course it will, but it will almost certainly NOT be resolved with a catastrophic implosion and road war. Governments will (and arguably should) do literally anything to avoid an outcome like this. We have recent examples that show us what is likely to happen, though.

Several times throughout history when the monetary system was blowing up, including as recently as 1985, the governments get together and figure out a new monetary system:

"The Plaza Accord was a joint-agreement, signed on 22 September 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche mark by intervening in currency markets. The U.S. dollar depreciated significantly since the agreement until it was replaced by the Louvre Accord in 1987.[1][2][3]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord

So, whenever the wheels finally come off (probably 2021-2023 range in my opinion), they'll simply have another one of these. Whatever solution they arrive at will probably be shitty for the average person, and good for governments and corporations. This is why it is smart to own some gold, or have it in your portfolio via an ETF. The value of the precious metal remains, regardless of whatever new bullshit fiat they denominate it in.

If you want a preview of the likely outcome, which is some sort of ultra gay crypto currency managed by an unaccountable international bank like the IMF, watch here:


09-12-2019 09:11 PM
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Post: #43
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-12-2019 06:39 PM)Excalibur Wrote:  The problem with worrying about "the collapse" is you don't know when, and you don't know to what degree.

Guys who predict the the collapse talk as if they know something that no one else know. Yes we all know as great as the Roman empire was it, it eventually fall. As powerful as united states is, our reign will not be forever. But as to when it will happen? In 1 month, 1 year, 10 years, 100 years, you would be a fool and arrogant to think you know.

Vox Day puts the collapse of the US government at sometime in the 2030s. Then again, at least one out of "arrogant and foolish" definitely applies to Vox.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
09-12-2019 10:42 PM
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Post: #44
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 05:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?

They don’t understand economics. They will have to move cashless or people will just keep cash in hand rather than keeping it in a bank. This will also give the governments more insight and control into everyone’s transactions. Once this happens, people will finally start to wake up about bitcoin. They will figure out that it is outside the states control and they can use it for whatever they want, including storing their wealth and not having it destroyed through inflation. There are a lot of disciplines and a lot of history to connect the dots with all of this so most people won’t figure this out until after the recession hits.
09-13-2019 12:36 AM
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Post: #45
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-08-2019 11:53 PM)Graft Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 01:56 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:58 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(09-08-2019 12:47 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  People keep acting as if all that debt has to be paid off by next year. Debt is healthy and like I said, biggest powerhouse in the world today, and the same will be true 50 years from now. Somebody bump me

They said the same thing about the Roman Empire. You don't seem to have a clue about economics.

The USD will collapse. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when.

lmao, there's a whole niche of internet marketing that is based off of making money of old, gullible people who have been convinced to think that the next crisis/economic collapse/civil war/ice age is coming. By drawing parallels to the Roman empire I imagine you may be part of that crowd. There will be an inevitable recession of some sort (as there has always been) but the US will recover and come back stronger, as it always has. Even mentioning the Roman downfall is asinine.


If this forum sticks around and I don't die, i'll gladly bump you every 5 years as a reminder.

One of the worst mistakes that I made in my life was overdosing on Schiff/zerohedge/Faber when I graduated college, avoided the stock market, collected gold, and worked low paying jobs in anticipation of "The Big Collapse."

I graduated with about $30k in savings from working college jobs and living at home. Had I put that into FANG stocks I would have a nest egg well into six figures and probably own a house right now.

A lot of these guys make technical sense but it's extremely obvious that they have no fucking idea when there is going to be a huge collapse, so they miss out on an entire epic bull run. A broken clock is right twice a day.

Amen. This cannot be said enough. I was in the same boat but luckily I never used Schiff's service. I did miss out on this bull run for the most part, but I won't be making that mistake again.

(09-11-2019 05:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?

I am admittedly not very economically literate, but I will try to explain things in the simplistic way that I understand them:

All the Federal Reserve (and other conventional central banks) does is print money at the cost of the paper (fractions of a penny on the dollar) yet lends it to governments for the value printed on the paper... at interest! Correct me if I'm wrong, but think about that for a second... that which you read right there is the explanation for most of the enormous amounts of debt that you see not only the US have, but pretty much all other nations of the world.

As a result, I find that this modern "debt" doesn't matter one bit. It's all a fugazi, fugazy, fairy dust....

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611afd2fa39532a3eb942...=giphy.gif]

It's a con, and negative interest rates are just the next step of the con. Couple this with going cashless and it's just another vehicle to erode the common man's wealth. In addition to taxes (first part of the con, because remember that the income tax was established soon after the Federal Reserve was established in order to support it), you will now have to pay the bank just to store your money! Banks try to attract customers now by having the highest positive interest rate. Imagine a future where banks try to attract customers with the lowest negative interest rate!

I could see a big crash being induced and the blame being placed squarely on people "hoarding" money and not spending enough. This kind of already happens with any crash. As a result legislation gets pushed to move things in such a way that reduces the ability for the common man to save and forces them to spend. Could this be the next big crash or two crashes down? Who knows. But in an extreme prediction, negative interest rates could get pushed so high over the years (once established at the consumer banking level) that eventually everyone's pay check just gets reset every 2 weeks. Think about that for a second.

Not sure if anyone here remembers the PC video game Age of Empires. Once again this is simplistic, but bear with me. In the video game you start out with a bunch of villagers, acquire resources, and over time use those resources to build stuff, namely a military to protect and/or project. Fundamentally this is what all nations boil down to - a group of people acquiring resources to make stuff with, #1 being a military (because if you don't have one then you are someone else's bitch as we can see). I find that a lot of people tend to lose sight of this and focus exclusively on all this modern economic BS. Don't get me wrong - if you want to be financially successful as an individual, you have to know this stuff. But I think if you want to be successful as a nation, you have to break free of this constructed mental prison.

But to answer your question Arado, I hold that as long as the US has a strong military, the ability to acquire necessary resources (namely food and oil) on its own, and has an adequately high IQ population that has the ability to understand all this, it will be fine. A crash happening right now or even in the next 10 years would arguably be the best case scenario since it would force us to break free - we'd just dump the Fed and say fuck the debt because we know it doesn't matter, and start a new currency as Zelcorpion/SS has long said on here. As a result, I believe that a slow burn is the most likely scenario to ensue. The long term trend will be what I stated previously. However, once average IQ drops below a certain level, a massive crash will probably be induced to carry out the rest of the plan - which partly explains the push to demographically change North America and Europe. One only needs to look at 1930s Germany to see what happens when you do this to a high IQ population...
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2019 08:26 PM by kamoz.)
09-13-2019 08:24 PM
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Post: #46
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-12-2019 09:11 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  Of course it will, but it will almost certainly NOT be resolved with a catastrophic implosion and road war. Governments will (and arguably should) do literally anything to avoid an outcome like this. We have recent examples that show us what is likely to happen, though.

Yes.

(09-12-2019 06:39 PM)Excalibur Wrote:  The problem with worrying about "the collapse" is you don't know when, and you don't know to what degree.

Double yes.

(09-13-2019 08:24 PM)kamoz Wrote:  I find that a lot of people tend to lose sight of this and focus exclusively on all this modern economic BS. Don't get me wrong - if you want to be financially successful as an individual, you have to know this stuff. But I think if you want to be successful as a nation, you have to break free of this constructed mental prison.

As a result, I believe that a slow burn is the most likely scenario to ensue.

Triple yes.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2019 08:47 PM by Kid Twist.)
09-13-2019 08:45 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I got the Thrift Savings Plan from George W. Bush when it started. I remember thinking "Nah, I don't want the mortgage-backed securities fund" and wow was that a good call. I picked medium to small-sized American Businesses, and that must have included Amazon or something because holy smokes I'm rich!

Plus, you could put your combat bucks in there over the maximum you were allowed. I got a bunch of those for killing terrorists. I believe the real benefit is extremely low fees, and its managed by Black Rock Financial who is run by some really smart Jews.

Aloha!
Yesterday 06:02 AM
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Post: #48
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-11-2019 10:48 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 06:33 PM)MustafaJoMama Wrote:  "401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

I enjoyed your post, a wonderful reality check for the most part. However the government seizing 401ks is more plausible than you may think:

"The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money?"

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/calpers-on-the-brink-of-insolvency/

Of course, this would constitute outright theft, but history shows us that desperate governments will resort to desperate measures in their attempts to retain power. Even if it means outright property confiscation and eroding the rule of law.

That is a theory that I agree with. My opinion, on a sliding scale of collapse will be:

1. Governments will seize or tax 401k type of benefits. Why? because they are owned by the middle class. The current trend is to pound on the middle class, not the very rich or the very poor
2. Social security will not be outright cancelled, it will have the retirement age bumped up considerably or somewhat neutered. Remember, if you take social security you are still in the gov't pocket, which they like. Social security could even be a UBI/yang bucks type of vehicle. However, the curve of contributions from poor to middle class will likely be steepened
3. Government pensions...they will seize/tax private IRA's and 401ks before they ever reduce their own.
4. If the government pensions go down, or the USD collapses etc. we will be in a venezuela combined with risk of foreign invasion type situation. Currency will be food, fuel, tools, medicine, guns.

If you are a believer in a rapid collapse type of scenario, then you should be investing in full prepper, if you are a believer in a slower collapse you should be avoiding 'middle class' type of investments like 401k's, college funds, mortgages. Those will be robbed by the socialists once they gain soft control and try to shore up welfare, social security and government pensions. Then, once welfare, social security and government pensions fail you are in full Venezuela and gold isn't going to help.

Why do the heathen rage and the people imagine a vain thing? Psalm 2:1 KJV
Yesterday 11:34 AM
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Post: #49
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 11:34 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 10:48 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 06:33 PM)MustafaJoMama Wrote:  "401K's are a scam": I noticed some people mentioned the belief that 401K money will be seized once social security and medicare become insolvent. I am not going to say that this cannot happen, but if it can, that would mean the government can really seize any personal property. The money you are putting in your 401K is earned income. It was paid to you personally for work you did. If you really think the government is poised to seize this from you, buy lots of guns and ammunition because that is not all they are coming for.

I enjoyed your post, a wonderful reality check for the most part. However the government seizing 401ks is more plausible than you may think:

"The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money?"

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/calpers-on-the-brink-of-insolvency/

Of course, this would constitute outright theft, but history shows us that desperate governments will resort to desperate measures in their attempts to retain power. Even if it means outright property confiscation and eroding the rule of law.

That is a theory that I agree with. My opinion, on a sliding scale of collapse will be:

1. Governments will seize or tax 401k type of benefits. Why? because they are owned by the middle class. The current trend is to pound on the middle class, not the very rich or the very poor
2. Social security will not be outright cancelled, it will have the retirement age bumped up considerably or somewhat neutered. Remember, if you take social security you are still in the gov't pocket, which they like. Social security could even be a UBI/yang bucks type of vehicle. However, the curve of contributions from poor to middle class will likely be steepened
3. Government pensions...they will seize/tax private IRA's and 401ks before they ever reduce their own.
4. If the government pensions go down, or the USD collapses etc. we will be in a venezuela combined with risk of foreign invasion type situation. Currency will be food, fuel, tools, medicine, guns.

If you are a believer in a rapid collapse type of scenario, then you should be investing in full prepper, if you are a believer in a slower collapse you should be avoiding 'middle class' type of investments like 401k's, college funds, mortgages. Those will be robbed by the socialists once they gain soft control and try to shore up welfare, social security and government pensions. Then, once welfare, social security and government pensions fail you are in full Venezuela and gold isn't going to help.

Solid post, but is it true that precious metals are worthless in Venezuela? I'd have thought it would be quite the opposite.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
Yesterday 01:46 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I'd contribute to the 401K up to the matching amount. There been concerns about confiscation going back decades. It could happen. The gov't could steal the money outright or, in the name of "safety," steal it indirectly by requiring companies to invest it in "guaranteed return" US treasuries. However, if they do either path they are going to have a lot of people wielding pitchforks and gov'ts never like that scenario if there's an easier path.

I think the easier path is to just increase inflation, which Shadowstats currently has at about 5% (gov't inflation and employment stats are lies). The nice thing about inflation for the gov't is that few people pinpoint its source, the central bank/Fed, which uses inflation to enrich elites and fund massive gov't spending/debt.

You cannot predict when a collapse will happen or exactly what form it'll take. The best thing you can do is just diversify, and I don't mean in the standard way that's used of having a collection of cash, bonds, and stocks. Name me a store of wealth and I can tell you how it can be destroyed. There's no security on this earth (Matt 6:19). Everyone knows what can happen to the stock market and bonds/cash are killers in an hyperinflation scenario. You have to diversify into precious metals, some w/foreign storage, foreign stocks/currencies, and if you can swing it some other hard assets like real estate and commodities are good as well. You probably already about food, seeds, water filtration, security, and other such things that will be valuable in a collapse scenario. And of course having skills that'll be useful. (EDIT to clarify: Diversification *includes* stocks and cash too, again because no one knows exactly where things are going. Those just aren't themselves the sum total of diversification. Hard assets, emergency supplies, skills, etc are part of it too).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 05:38 PM by Athanasius.)
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