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Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
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tugofpeace Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 05:02 PM)Excalibur Wrote:  @tugofpeace - at 31 you have a long investment horizon. Giving up employer match on your 401k makes zero sense. It’s 100% return on your investment. Why give that up to pay for your 3-4% debt. And how much gold are you gonna acquire that will make any significant impact on saving your butt in the event of a collapse. You are 31, hopefully with a marketable skill, and good health. Even if you lose all your savings you have enough time to make it all back.

I'm not giving up an employer match by reducing my investment. My employer only matches $2k, I put in $15k alone.

I just have other debts and if I stop putting in $5k, that will yield me about $300/month post tax. Other debt includes a student loan refinanced at 4-5% interest and credit cards at 0% interest.

I thought about taking a home loan from the 401k ($50k when I reach $100k balance) but I heard that was a bad idea so now I have to save hard cash for it. The $15k yearly contribution is hurting that goal.
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2019 09:35 PM by tugofpeace.)
09-17-2019 08:54 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 08:54 PM)tugofpeace Wrote:  
(09-17-2019 05:02 PM)Excalibur Wrote:  @tugofpeace - at 31 you have a long investment horizon. Giving up employer match on your 401k makes zero sense. It’s 100% return on your investment. Why give that up to pay for your 3-4% debt. And how much gold are you gonna acquire that will make any significant impact on saving your butt in the event of a collapse. You are 31, hopefully with a marketable skill, and good health. Even if you lose all your savings you have enough time to make it all back.

I'm not giving up an employer match by reducing my investment. My employer only matches $2k, I put in $15k alone.

I just have other debts and if I stop putting in $5k, that will yield me about $300/month post tax. Other debt includes a student loan refinanced at 4-5% interest and credit cards at 0% interest.

I thought about taking a home loan from the 401k ($50k when I reach $100k balance) but I heard that was a bad idea so now I have to save hard cash for it. The $15k yearly contribution is hurting that goal.

Standard financial advice is pay off debt that is accumulating at a higher interest rate than the expected rate of return of your investments, so outside of employer matching you may not gain much from the 401K after calculating after tax withdrawals.

Only caveat is that if Warren or Sanders gets elected and does a student loan bailout then you would want to wait for that. Or, if hyperinflation hits then it will be easy to pay off your loan - but only if it's fixed rate. If it's adjustable rate then if inflation ticks up interest rates will likely skyrocket. You're not going to find a 100% definite answer on this forum but people will give you things to think about as you weight your options and talk to trusted advisors.
09-17-2019 09:42 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
It's gonna be a dollar crisis, and we'll fix it like we always have, by devaluing.

Add the new trade situation brought to you by Mr. Trump and Lighthizer, and you can thank them later for saving the world from the Chinese. We will all agree, trade will go on, we'll be fine.

Equities will continue to rise. The 2024 Dem Socialist will bring the devaluation and loss of confidence after Trump restored it, market finally agreeing to tank. Boomers will vote for MOAR

Life will go on.

Get your passport ready!
09-17-2019 10:02 PM
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Post: #79
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 10:02 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Life will go on.

Life will always go on.

As alluded to by Leonard, however, the question is whether you will have a life of abundance, by preparing for the worst, or a life of relative poverty.
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2019 10:58 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-17-2019 10:56 PM
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Post: #80
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I am yet to see an answer here that calms my nerves regarding the potential impact of negative interest rates.

(09-12-2019 09:11 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 05:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?

Of course it will, but it will almost certainly NOT be resolved with a catastrophic implosion and road war. Governments will (and arguably should) do literally anything to avoid an outcome like this. We have recent examples that show us what is likely to happen, though.

Several times throughout history when the monetary system was blowing up, including as recently as 1985, the governments get together and figure out a new monetary system:

So, whenever the wheels finally come off (probably 2021-2023 range in my opinion), they'll simply have another one of these. Whatever solution they arrive at will probably be shitty for the average person, and good for governments and corporations. This is why it is smart to own some gold, or have it in your portfolio via an ETF. The value of the precious metal remains, regardless of whatever new bullshit fiat they denominate it in.

If you want a preview of the likely outcome, which is some sort of ultra gay crypto currency managed by an unaccountable international bank like the IMF, watch here:

(09-13-2019 12:36 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  They don’t understand economics. They will have to move cashless or people will just keep cash in hand rather than keeping it in a bank. This will also give the governments more insight and control into everyone’s transactions. Once this happens, people will finally start to wake up about bitcoin. They will figure out that it is outside the states control and they can use it for whatever they want, including storing their wealth and not having it destroyed through inflation. There are a lot of disciplines and a lot of history to connect the dots with all of this so most people won’t figure this out until after the recession hits.

(09-13-2019 08:24 PM)kamoz Wrote:  But to answer your question Arado, I hold that as long as the US has a strong military, the ability to acquire necessary resources (namely food and oil) on its own, and has an adequately high IQ population that has the ability to understand all this, it will be fine. A crash happening right now or even in the next 10 years would arguably be the best case scenario since it would force us to break free - we'd just dump the Fed and say fuck the debt because we know it doesn't matter, and start a new currency as Zelcorpion/SS has long said on here. As a result, I believe that a slow burn is the most likely scenario to ensue. The long term trend will be what I stated previously. However, once average IQ drops below a certain level, a massive crash will probably be induced to carry out the rest of the plan - which partly explains the push to demographically change North America and Europe. One only needs to look at 1930s Germany to see what happens when you do this to a high IQ population...

To all the skeptics that say just keep buying index funds and thinking about the collapse is a waste of time, should read the below:

(09-16-2019 11:24 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  I am absolutely baffled by the surrealistic mindset of some folks on this thread. Does no one remember that in 2008 the economy of the entire world came to the brink of utter destruction? Only the intervention of the President of the United States, the head of the Fed, and unprecedented compliance of the heads of the top U.S. mega-banks staved off a worldwide financial catastrophe. Reading this thread, one would think that none of this happened. WTF!

Saying that real (Austrian School) economists have no merit (because the predicted financial collapse did not occur after heroic efforts to avert disaster) is like criticizing an astronomer for warning about a meteor strike after the meteor merely destroys your neighbors house while missing your own.

If you require a reminder about the severity of the 2008 financial crisis, which almost resulted in the largest financial collapse in world history, then watch this HBO documentary ("Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis"):

Almost none of the systemic problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis have been fixed. If you are long the stock market and you do not have a well thought out hedging strategy, then you are a fool. You can literally lose years of profits in less than a few weeks during a serious financial crisis.

Considering that a few years of low interest rates (post 2000 recession) led to the near collapse of the financial system when rates went up and people started defaulting on their mortgages leading to chaos in the credit default swap market, I can't imagine the long term damage that massive QE and zero rates has done.

Literally, the most basic laws of finance and human nature are turned on their head with negative rates, and with inflation at 2%, real rates are essentially zero or negative in the U.S. as well.

Extremely low interest rates have fueled a bubble in passive index funds, according to Michael Burry (guy from the movie the Big Short who shorted mortgage bonds)




Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.
09-17-2019 11:01 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Extremely low interest rates have fueled a bubble in passive index funds, according to Michael Burry (guy from the movie the Big Short who shorted mortgage bonds)




Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

Excellent video. Everyone should watch it. That chart at minute twelve is devastating to the buy-and-hold strategy, which is one of the largest fallacies in equity investing. It is quite likely that stock market returns in the next 7 or 10 years will not look anything like the past. I have seen a number of well-regarded financial firms make such projections, which is syc with the chart at minute twelve. Projected equity and bond returns over the next seven years:

   

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontli...-investing
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2019 12:26 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-18-2019 12:24 AM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I am yet to see an answer here that calms my nerves regarding the potential impact of negative interest rates.

(09-12-2019 09:11 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-11-2019 05:48 PM)Arado Wrote:  To all the collapse skeptics - do you think this vast increase in the total amount of debt with negative interest rates won't have a disruptive impact on the financial system eventually?

Of course it will, but it will almost certainly NOT be resolved with a catastrophic implosion and road war. Governments will (and arguably should) do literally anything to avoid an outcome like this. We have recent examples that show us what is likely to happen, though.

Several times throughout history when the monetary system was blowing up, including as recently as 1985, the governments get together and figure out a new monetary system:

So, whenever the wheels finally come off (probably 2021-2023 range in my opinion), they'll simply have another one of these. Whatever solution they arrive at will probably be shitty for the average person, and good for governments and corporations. This is why it is smart to own some gold, or have it in your portfolio via an ETF. The value of the precious metal remains, regardless of whatever new bullshit fiat they denominate it in.

If you want a preview of the likely outcome, which is some sort of ultra gay crypto currency managed by an unaccountable international bank like the IMF, watch here:

(09-13-2019 12:36 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  They don’t understand economics. They will have to move cashless or people will just keep cash in hand rather than keeping it in a bank. This will also give the governments more insight and control into everyone’s transactions. Once this happens, people will finally start to wake up about bitcoin. They will figure out that it is outside the states control and they can use it for whatever they want, including storing their wealth and not having it destroyed through inflation. There are a lot of disciplines and a lot of history to connect the dots with all of this so most people won’t figure this out until after the recession hits.

(09-13-2019 08:24 PM)kamoz Wrote:  But to answer your question Arado, I hold that as long as the US has a strong military, the ability to acquire necessary resources (namely food and oil) on its own, and has an adequately high IQ population that has the ability to understand all this, it will be fine. A crash happening right now or even in the next 10 years would arguably be the best case scenario since it would force us to break free - we'd just dump the Fed and say fuck the debt because we know it doesn't matter, and start a new currency as Zelcorpion/SS has long said on here. As a result, I believe that a slow burn is the most likely scenario to ensue. The long term trend will be what I stated previously. However, once average IQ drops below a certain level, a massive crash will probably be induced to carry out the rest of the plan - which partly explains the push to demographically change North America and Europe. One only needs to look at 1930s Germany to see what happens when you do this to a high IQ population...

To all the skeptics that say just keep buying index funds and thinking about the collapse is a waste of time, should read the below:

(09-16-2019 11:24 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  I am absolutely baffled by the surrealistic mindset of some folks on this thread. Does no one remember that in 2008 the economy of the entire world came to the brink of utter destruction? Only the intervention of the President of the United States, the head of the Fed, and unprecedented compliance of the heads of the top U.S. mega-banks staved off a worldwide financial catastrophe. Reading this thread, one would think that none of this happened. WTF!

Saying that real (Austrian School) economists have no merit (because the predicted financial collapse did not occur after heroic efforts to avert disaster) is like criticizing an astronomer for warning about a meteor strike after the meteor merely destroys your neighbors house while missing your own.

If you require a reminder about the severity of the 2008 financial crisis, which almost resulted in the largest financial collapse in world history, then watch this HBO documentary ("Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis"):

Almost none of the systemic problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis have been fixed. If you are long the stock market and you do not have a well thought out hedging strategy, then you are a fool. You can literally lose years of profits in less than a few weeks during a serious financial crisis.

Considering that a few years of low interest rates (post 2000 recession) led to the near collapse of the financial system when rates went up and people started defaulting on their mortgages leading to chaos in the credit default swap market, I can't imagine the long term damage that massive QE and zero rates has done.

Literally, the most basic laws of finance and human nature are turned on their head with negative rates, and with inflation at 2%, real rates are essentially zero or negative in the U.S. as well.

Extremely low interest rates have fueled a bubble in passive index funds, according to Michael Burry (guy from the movie the Big Short who shorted mortgage bonds)




Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

They can only cut the interest rate so many more times before it is down to zero. The ecb is already setting the world stage that negative interest rates are completely normal. I read today that since the 2008 crisis, the fed has printed an average of $31,000,000 an hour since then. In other words, we are all effectively poorer in the last 11 years. QE is fraud.
09-18-2019 12:31 AM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
53 billion was injected in the economy yesterday. Totally normal guys, keep your stocks lol.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/business/...index.html
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2019 03:32 AM by Swordfish1010.)
09-18-2019 03:31 AM
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Excalibur Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
@tugofpeace

Yeah with only $2k employer match it’s a toss up. Psychologically might be better just to pay off the loans.
09-18-2019 08:30 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

Yes, as much as we disagree on certain specialty topics and mostly timing, big picture we see eye to eye. Just to list those quickly, yes, negative rates are an absolute joke, CAPE (Shiller PE) is high but not an all time high like in the years approaching the dot com bubble, and the world is sluggish with growth and will languish. The USA is entering the same dilemma of fake (small, overstated due to spending) GDP and minimal "growth".

I actually think it can be pushed quite a bit further, and my current prediction is that it'll be mid decade. I said this 2 years ago, and it's looking better and better. The run up to the 2024 Dem Socialist election is the most obvious and will be the most glaring example of going from a business loving, market loving, economy loving president to a freebie shill for the "people."

But even I will be holding BTC and some commodities until then. I really don't think you have to worry about holding those even until another 6-9 months. I won't bother with indexes because I think their long term time is up AND since I do believe the market will keep running (for now) why not just own MSFT and crush the (whichever you want) index?

Get your popcorn ready. Then, look below.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2019 06:28 PM by Kid Twist.)
09-18-2019 06:26 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
More QE today and another interest rate cut. 128 billion injected this week now. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fixe...s-15094169
09-18-2019 07:35 PM
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Post: #87
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 06:26 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

Yes, as much as we disagree on certain specialty topics and mostly timing, big picture we see eye to eye. Just to list those quickly, yes, negative rates are an absolute joke, CAPE (Shiller PE) is high but not an all time high like in the years approaching the dot com bubble, and the world is sluggish with growth and will languish. The USA is entering the same dilemma of fake (small, overstated due to spending) GDP and minimal "growth".

I actually think it can be pushed quite a bit further, and my current prediction is that it'll be mid decade. I said this 2 years ago, and it's looking better and better. The run up to the 2024 Dem Socialist election is the most obvious and will be the most glaring example of going from a business loving, market loving, economy loving president to a freebie shill for the "people."

But even I will be holding BTC and some commodities until then. I really don't think you have to worry about holding those even until another 6-9 months. I won't bother with indexes because I think their long term time is up AND since I do believe the market will keep running (for now) why not just own MSFT and crush the (whichever you want) index?

Get your popcorn ready. Then, look below.

I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.
09-18-2019 08:01 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

Happy? These sheep should have rioted in the streets a decade ago.

They are too busy watching TV, voting for socialists, and complaining about their low social security (welfare) payments.
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2019 08:31 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-18-2019 08:31 PM
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Post: #89
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 08:31 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

Happy? These sheep should have rioted in the streets a decade ago.

They are too busy watching TV, voting for socialists, and complaining about their low social security (welfare) payments.

Now they are bitter towards millennials for not being able to buy their McMansions too. The generational divide is going to get ugly, when “they” remain in the shadows and get even richer at the cost of many.

That’s what I’ve been thinking lately. Bitcoin won’t really disrupt the status quo very much. Central banks everywhere are already probably hoarding bitcoin. The rich will get richer. Central banks already hoard gold more than anyone. Just don’t say I didn’t try to warn you bros.
09-18-2019 08:58 PM
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Post: #90
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
How close did we come just now?
Try this handy gauge:
http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

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09-18-2019 10:32 PM
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Post: #91
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 10:32 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  How close did we come just now?
Try this handy gauge:
http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

From the web site (explanation):

"The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018."

Laugh4
09-18-2019 10:37 PM
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Post: #92
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I am yet to see an answer here that calms my nerves regarding the potential impact of negative interest rates.

You'll really enjoy this podcast. Money quote: "I am not advising anyone to buy equities because things are good, I am saying to do so because they're very very bad". Interview starts at 18:55.





The system is totally fucked, in terms of both it's sustainability and general integrity. Anyone with a triple digit IQ can see this.

The question is, how exactly will the cookie crumble, and how can we make sure to grab a few crumbs? In other words, how will we be best positioned as TPTB transition us onto whatever new system they implement once it blows up?

There are three key considerations guiding my decision making here:

1) There is extremely strong evidence that capital flows are moving into the USA, and this trend is likely to continue.
2) There is an increasing global dollar shortage.
3) The largest and most powerful players in the financial markets rewrite the rules to suit their own needs (see also: 2008 financial crisis), and they mostly own equities.

The argument for withdrawing from equities into privately held precious metals has a variety of flaws, but the major one is this: if there ever was an actual "collapse", and the most basic private property laws could no longer be enforced (stock ownerships etc), your gold or silver coins are fucking worthless.

That would entail a scenario where food stops getting delivered to stores, gas stations have no gas, total martial law, etc.

When these scenarios happen historically, FOOD is the most important currency, and in modern day America it would immediately result in the most hellish and depraved breakdown you can imagine.

Thankfully, I doubt we'll be murdering each other for beef jerky and using teen girls as human currency anytime soon.

Much more likely is bond market collapse in Europe>contagion to rest of world>market shutdown while TPTB implement gay new digital currency>massive inflation that erases a lot of government debts. Throw in a dash of political chaos and some riots and I think that's an accurate forecast for the next 5 years.

PS- Get some CA$H before the banking system shuts down. When TPTB have to shut it down, which they probably will this time, they impose really low withdrawal limits on cash at ATMs. That is what happened in Cyprus, anyways. Having cash on hand will allow you to buy groceries or anything else you might desire at a steep discount.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 01:46 PM by jeffreyjerpp.)
09-19-2019 01:23 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:23 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  The argument for withdrawing from equities into privately held precious metals has a variety of flaws, but the major one is this: if there ever was an actual "collapse", and the most basic private property laws could no longer be enforced (stock ownerships etc), your gold or silver coins are fucking worthless.

While I can envision a scenario where equities would become worthless, I cannot envision any scenario where gold or silver would become worthless. Precious metals have had intrinsic value for all of human history. I just read an article recently about a gold mine that predates the civilizations of ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia.

Quote:More than 5,000 years ago on a hilltop located in modern-day Georgia (the country, not the state), a group of people from the prehistoric Kura-Araxes civilization gathered their primitive tools and began to dig.

It took years. But they eventually burrowed 20 meters deep into the earth and constructed a network of elaborate tunnels.

Thousands of years later, archaeologists and geologists figured out why: the Kura-Araxes were digging for gold.

And that site, known as Sakdrisi-Kachagiani, is the oldest gold mine in the world. It predates Ancient Egypt and even Mesopotamia.

And it shows that, even in prehistoric times, our early ancestors valued gold.

Nearly every great civilization from every corner of the planet since then has continued to mine for gold– from Greece and Rome to China’s Zhou dynasty in the first millennium BC, to the Inca and Aztec.

Mining was so important in ancient times, in fact, that wars frequently broke out over control of the best-producing mines.

In many respects, a gold mine is the ultimate asset. Even to this day we still use the term ‘gold mine’ to refer to a fantastic investment.

https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/t..._streaming


In the aftermath of 9/11 banks closed -- but you could still take your gold or silver to the precious metal dealers to exchange your PM's for cash.

It is easy for governments to simply declare the old form of currency obsolete. (See India a few years ago, with large bank notes.) You then have a limited time to get the new currency before it becomes worthless. With gold or silver, you can simply get whatever currency is available when you need it.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 01:37 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 01:33 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

The dollar is used so heavily globally, that the Fed has zero choice. Businesses in China (and everywhere else) have dollar denominated debts, even though they earn money in Yuan, Pesos, etc. An interest rate rise in the dollar would blow up the global banking system.

I also doubt retirees, the middle class, and anyone who should be protected by the system, actually will be protected by the system. The government and big banks are going to do whatever is best for themselves, and pass the costs off to regular people.
09-19-2019 01:36 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:33 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In the aftermath of 9/11 banks closed -- but you could still take your gold or silver to the precious metal dealers to exchange your PM's for cash.

It is easy for governments to simply declare the old form of currency obsolete. (See India a few years ago, with large bank notes.) You then have a limited time to get the new currency. With gold or silver, you can simply get whatever currency is available when you need it.

You know what else the government can cancel? Your gold coins! In fact less than 100 years ago, the USA did that exact thing to it's own citizens. Other governments are starting down the same path right now.

I am not opposed to holding a small amount of precious metals outside the system, but repeating silly talking points about Mesopatamia and 9/11 isn't analyzing the current landscape to make strategic decisions about the future. It's shilling for people like Mike Maloney and Jim Rickards, who as a reminder, have been 100% wrong in their predictions so far.

"The hunt for money is moving into high gear in Germany. Prior to 2017, it was possible to buy gold anonymously in quantities up to €15,000. In 2017, this limit was reduced to €10,000. Now, Merkel has drastically reduced this limit to just €2,000 beginning in 2020. Any transaction greater than that amount requires the buyer to prove their identity and give their data to the gold trader.

While Merkel has allowed the refugees to pour into Germany, denying there are terrorists hidden among them, she has justified this reduction in anonymous gold purchases by arguing against money laundering to stop terrorism. This means that terrorist would be buying gold inside Germany, which on the other hand she denies letting them in to start with.

Merkel is not satisfied with imposing just a price limitation. She also wants to introduce the 50-gram rule, which would apply regardless of price. For physical gold buyers, this means they will not be able to buy a 50-gram ingot (1.60754 troy ounces) without the gold trader taking personal data and saving it for five years. This certainly applies if you tried to buy just two one ounces coins."

armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-becoming-part-of-money-laundering-laws/
09-19-2019 01:43 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:36 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

The dollar is used so heavily globally, that the Fed has zero choice. Businesses in China (and everywhere else) have dollar denominated debts, even though they earn money in Yuan, Pesos, etc. An interest rate rise in the dollar would blow up the global banking system.

I also doubt retirees, the middle class, and anyone who should be protected by the system, actually will be protected by the system. The government and big banks are going to do whatever is best for themselves, and pass the costs off to regular people.

In 2008, Russia and China could have destroyed the U.S. financial system by dumping their U.S. treasuries. I have heard stories that Putin urged China to do exactly that. China refused. Why? A worldwide financial collapse would have hurt China just as much as the U.S.

But when the other global powers hostile to the U.S. are properly positioned economically, watch out!. Here is what Russia has done since 2008:

   

This is strategic geopolitical positioning, folks. China is also heading in this direction. There was a news article just this past week that Japan's holdings of U.S. treasuries exceeded China's for the first time in years. Some of the world has learned from recent past history.

The next financial panic will not be the same as the last one. Guaranteed.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 01:57 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 01:46 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:43 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 01:33 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In the aftermath of 9/11 banks closed -- but you could still take your gold or silver to the precious metal dealers to exchange your PM's for cash.

It is easy for governments to simply declare the old form of currency obsolete. (See India a few years ago, with large bank notes.) You then have a limited time to get the new currency. With gold or silver, you can simply get whatever currency is available when you need it.

You know what else the government can cancel? Your gold coins! In fact less than 100 years ago, the USA did that exact thing to it's own citizens. Other governments are starting down the same path right now.

Nonsense. Today you can buy all the pre-1930's U.S. gold coins that you want. Why? Because most people refused to turn them in. Just like they refuse to turn in their firearms. Yes, if you are stupid enough to voluntarily turn in your gold, then you will not have gold. Otherwise, you can exchange your gold for goods or currency.

In addition, anyone intelligent will not keep the bulk of their PM's in their home country anyhow. Who in the world would keep PM's in European countries that continue to reduce the ability to use cash? Especially when you can simply drive to your vault in Switzerland and trade gold for cash there. So confiscation is irrelevant. The U.S. has not restricted cash -- and I would still not keep most of my PM's in the U.S. There are better options.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 01:59 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 01:50 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  When the other global powers hostile to the U.S. are properly positioned anything can happen. Here is what Russia has done:



This is strategic geopolitical positioning folks. China is also heading in this direction. There was a news article just this past week that Japan's holdings of U.S. treasuries exceeded China's for the first time in years.

The next financial panic will not be the same as the last one.

China is selling our treasuries to help both us and themselves. They are actively supporting their own currency to avoid pissing off Trump and stopping the Yuan from collapsing into nothing, which it otherwise would. In that scenario, perhaps trading your dollar reserves for gold reserves makes some sense?

For a different perspective, here is what our allies, who are allowed to make large acquisitions of USA companies, are doing:

"US tech stocks push Norway’s $1 trillion oil fund to best ever gains


The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund just posted its most successful quarterly return ever.

Norges Bank, which manages Norway’s $1 trillion oil-funded wealth pot, said a strong recovery in global stock markets across the first three months of 2019 had generated a 9.1% return overall. In Norwegian krone terms it was the investor’s largest ever increase at 738 billion Norwegian krone ($84 billion).

The Government Pension Fund Global, as it is officially known, currently sits at around $1.05 trillion in overall value. The aim of the fund is to ensure a future source of wealth from current revenue derived from Norway’s oil and gas sales.

As of March 31, 2019, the fund was invested 69.2% in equities, 2.8% in unlisted real estate and 28% in fixed income.

The fund’s largest equity holdings as of the end of March were in Apple, Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon. According to Norges Bank, those tech stocks were the bulk of the strongest-performing sector for the fund, returning 17.6% in growth during the quarter."

cnbc.com/2019/08/21/norways-1-trillion-sovereign-wealth-fund-enjoys-returns-on-stocks-and-bonds.html
09-19-2019 02:05 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:50 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In addition, anyone intelligent will not keep the bulk of their PM's in their home country anyhow. Who in the world would keep PM's in European countries that continue to reduce the ability to use cash? Especially when you can simply drive to your vault in Switzerland and trade gold for cash there. So confiscation is irrelevant. The U.S. has not restricted cash -- and I would still not keep most of my PM's in the U.S. There are better options.

Those of us without drive-in Swiss vault access have to make other plans, I'm afraid.
09-19-2019 02:11 PM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 01:23 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I am yet to see an answer here that calms my nerves regarding the potential impact of negative interest rates.

You'll really enjoy this podcast. Money quote: "I am not advising anyone to buy equities because things are good, I am saying to do so because they're very very bad". Interview starts at 18:55.





The system is totally fucked, in terms of both it's sustainability and general integrity. Anyone with a triple digit IQ can see this.

The question is, how exactly will the cookie crumble, and how can we make sure to grab a few crumbs? In other words, how will we be best positioned as TPTB transition us onto whatever new system they implement once it blows up?

There are three key considerations guiding my decision making here:

1) There is extremely strong evidence that capital flows are moving into the USA, and this trend is likely to continue.
2) There is an increasing global dollar shortage.
3) The largest and most powerful players in the financial markets rewrite the rules to suit their own needs (see also: 2008 financial crisis), and they mostly own equities.

The argument for withdrawing from equities into privately held precious metals has a variety of flaws, but the major one is this: if there ever was an actual "collapse", and the most basic private property laws could no longer be enforced (stock ownerships etc), your gold or silver coins are fucking worthless.

That would entail a scenario where food stops getting delivered to stores, gas stations have no gas, total martial law, etc.

When these scenarios happen historically, FOOD is the most important currency, and in modern day America it would immediately result in the most hellish and depraved breakdown you can imagine.

Thankfully, I doubt we'll be murdering each other for beef jerky and using teen girls as human currency anytime soon.

Much more likely is bond market collapse in Europe>contagion to rest of world>market shutdown while TPTB implement gay new digital currency>massive inflation that erases a lot of government debts. Throw in a dash of political chaos and some riots and I think that's an accurate forecast for the next 5 years.

PS- Get some CA$H before the banking system shuts down. When TPTB have to shut it down, which they probably will this time, they impose really low withdrawal limits on cash at ATMs. That is what happened in Cyprus, anyways. Having cash on hand will allow you to buy groceries or anything else you might desire at a steep discount.
I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money
09-19-2019 03:50 PM
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