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Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 02:11 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 01:50 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In addition, anyone intelligent will not keep the bulk of their PM's in their home country anyhow. Who in the world would keep PM's in European countries that continue to reduce the ability to use cash? Especially when you can simply drive to your vault in Switzerland and trade gold for cash there. So confiscation is irrelevant. The U.S. has not restricted cash -- and I would still not keep most of my PM's in the U.S. There are better options.

Those of us without drive-in Swiss vault access have to make other plans, I'm afraid.

You are the one who brought up Germany. Anyone in Europe has access to Swiss or Austrian vaults. And opening a precious metals account in a private vault is little different than opening a bank account -- and far more private.
09-19-2019 03:52 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 03:59 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 03:58 PM
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Post: #103
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.
09-19-2019 04:02 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 04:21 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 04:18 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 04:18 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
You can walk around blind, but my eyes are wide open.
09-19-2019 04:23 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 04:23 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 04:18 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
You can walk around blind, but my eyes are wide open.

Thanks for the thoughtful discourse. tard
09-19-2019 04:29 PM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Not true. Gold actually has secondary uses such as in jewelry making. Bitcoin BTC has zero secondary uses because right now it's not even a good currency due to high fees and slow transaction times. There are other cryptocurrencies that work better that might challenge gold in the distant future.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 05:11 PM by zoom.)
09-19-2019 05:11 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 05:11 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Not true. Gold actually has secondary uses such as in jewelry making. Bitcoin BTC has zero secondary uses because right now it's not even a good currency due to high fees and slow transaction times. There are other cryptocurrencies that work better that might challenge gold in the distant future.

   

This is a chart from 2015. The buying by central banks is now far stronger.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 05:18 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 05:17 PM
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Post: #109
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 10:37 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 10:32 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  How close did we come just now?
Try this handy gauge:
http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

From the web site (explanation):

"The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018."

Laugh4

I still think they're more correct than not.
Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 stock market crash. He was off by a year, but still managed to get it right. Very right.



It wasn't a one time lucky break. His net worth today is about quadruple what Jeffery Epstein's was.

Oh yeah - he was just as "wrong" last year too.

Quote:Paul Tudor Jones, the hedge fund manager who called the October 1987 crash, gave a stark warning about the financial markets.

“We have the strongest economy in 40 years, at full employment. The mood is euphoric. But it is unsustainable and comes with costs such as bubbles in stocks and credit,” Jones said in an interview with Goldman Sachs sent to the bank’s clients in a note Wednesday. “With rates so low, you can’t trust asset prices today. And if you can’t tell by now, I would steer very clear of bonds. … Bonds are the most expensive they’ve ever been by virtually any metric. They’re overvalued and over-owned.”

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09-19-2019 06:00 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

I'm not in bonds and won't be, but again, we've got a ways to go before the doom returns.

Get your passport ready!
09-19-2019 07:56 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 06:26 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

Yes, as much as we disagree on certain specialty topics and mostly timing, big picture we see eye to eye. Just to list those quickly, yes, negative rates are an absolute joke, CAPE (Shiller PE) is high but not an all time high like in the years approaching the dot com bubble, and the world is sluggish with growth and will languish. The USA is entering the same dilemma of fake (small, overstated due to spending) GDP and minimal "growth".

I actually think it can be pushed quite a bit further, and my current prediction is that it'll be mid decade. I said this 2 years ago, and it's looking better and better. The run up to the 2024 Dem Socialist election is the most obvious and will be the most glaring example of going from a business loving, market loving, economy loving president to a freebie shill for the "people."

But even I will be holding BTC and some commodities until then. I really don't think you have to worry about holding those even until another 6-9 months. I won't bother with indexes because I think their long term time is up AND since I do believe the market will keep running (for now) why not just own MSFT and crush the (whichever you want) index?

Get your popcorn ready. Then, look below.

I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

I don't think there will be a "crash" regardless, but yes, they will do it and they will love every minute of it. Retirees will do anything to keep status quo anywhere near what they believe is the "status quo". Just like they'll vote for all the "free shit" from the 2024 free-shit-idiot politician.

Get your passport ready!
09-19-2019 07:59 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2019 08:11 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-19-2019 08:09 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 07:59 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

I don't think there will be a "crash" regardless, but yes, they will do it and they will love every minute of it. Retirees will do anything to keep status quo anywhere near what they believe is the "status quo". Just like they'll vote for all the "free shit" from the 2024 free-shit-idiot politician.

I think this is where we disagree and this is a pretty important point which we've constantly gone in circles on in other threads but I never got a direct answer from you. Kid Twist, you are vastly underestimating the dependence of this market on Fed actions. If you go back to December last year, the market was in free fall until Powell made a complete u-turn and said QT was going to end soon and he stopped raising interest rates.

As of late last year it was only extremists like Peter Schiff that said that the Fed was going to stop raising interest rates. Most of the mainstream media said then that the Fed was going to raise rates once more in 2019. Come 2019, the Fed has now lowered rates twice and will do so again before the end of the year and Powell has even hinted that QE is going to resume. And even with that giant u-turn the markets have been treading water essentially and are barely up from January 2018.

Without the 'Fed put', this thing would have crashed a long time ago. The only question now is whether Fed actions (including even negative interest rates) are enough to hold off the long due slowdown (setting us up for an even worse crash in a few years when we can't get back above 0% interest rates), or is it too little too late and the crash is still coming even with extreme Fed policy?
09-19-2019 08:15 PM
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Post: #114
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I'd either sell the car and stop making payments and get a cheaper car, or work more hours rather than sell investments like gold or stocks.

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09-19-2019 08:49 PM
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Post: #115
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 08:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.

Could you expound upon this statement in bold a little more? I'm always looking for places to put my money other than the debt and equity markets for some decent yields but it seems like a tough find for me.
09-19-2019 11:49 PM
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Post: #116
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 08:49 PM)eradicator Wrote:  I'd either sell the car and stop making payments and get a cheaper car, or work more hours rather than sell investments like gold or stocks.

The idea of working Saturdays actually just occurred to me the other day. No idea why I hadn't thought of that before. I'm like that sometimes. Hypothetically, of course. (The hypothetical car is hypothetically leased and a smaller, less expensive car isn't really an option, for reasons I won't get into).

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09-20-2019 12:08 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #117
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 11:49 PM)doc holliday Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 08:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.

Could you expound upon this statement in bold a little more? I'm always looking for places to put my money other than the debt and equity markets for some decent yields but it seems like a tough find for me.

When I still trusted the market, I traded vertical bull put credit spreads, but I am now out of those trades. Now my favorite play is agriculture, because people need to eat regardless of what disasters happen in the world and the yields are fantastic. I especially like organic agriculture, because the demand now has exponential future growth. In fact, the demand is now so high for organic crops and the profit margin is so slim for pesticide-sprayed crops that once a particular critical mass is reached in the demand for organic crops, the large agro-companies will be forced to make the switch. As a matter of profitability and survival, they will have no choice but to switch to organic (with the possible exception of grains and some other specific crops).

   

Bear in mind that these are U.S. farmland yields. Yields are far higher in Latin America, where farmland and labor cost much less. The annual yields there can be twice U.S. farmland yields. In other words, an avocado sold in the U.S. or Europe is sold for the same price regardless of where it was grown.

There are also platforms for trading whiskey, wine, and making loans to people who own gold (in the possession of a third party) as collateral. There are peer-to-peer loans. You can own apartments and condos in different countries to diversify risk. I discussed some of this outside-the-box investment thinking here:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-3939-...pid1986261


Honestly, there are an incredible array of investments outside of Wall Street. I have touched on just a few. Everyone wants to press a few buttons and watch the shinny lights. Once you place boots-on-the-ground to seek lucrative investment options, your competition is quite limited -- and yields rise as a result.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2019 10:02 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-20-2019 09:54 AM
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Post: #118
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-20-2019 09:54 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 11:49 PM)doc holliday Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 08:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.

Could you expound upon this statement in bold a little more? I'm always looking for places to put my money other than the debt and equity markets for some decent yields but it seems like a tough find for me.

When I still trusted the market, I traded vertical bull put credit spreads, but I am now out of those trades. Now my favorite play is agriculture, because people need to eat regardless of what disasters happen in the world and the yields are fantastic. I especially like organic agriculture, because the demand now has exponential future growth. In fact, the demand is now so high for organic crops and the profit margin is so slim for pesticide-sprayed crops that once a particular critical mass is reached in the demand for organic crops, the large agro-companies will be forced to make the switch. As a matter of profitability and survival, they will have no choice but to switch to organic (with the possible exception of grains and some other specific crops).



Bear in mind that these are U.S. farmland yields. Yields are far higher in Latin America, where farmland and labor cost much less. The annual yields there can be twice U.S. farmland yields. In other words, an avocado sold in the U.S. or Europe is sold for the same price regardless of where it was grown.

There are also platforms for trading whiskey, wine, and making loans to people who own gold (in the possession of a third party) as collateral. There are peer-to-peer loans. You can own apartments and condos in different countries to diversify risk. I discussed some of this outside-the-box investment thinking here:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-3939-...pid1986261


Honestly, there are an incredible array of investments outside of Wall Street. I have touched on just a few. Everyone wants to press a few buttons and watch the shinny lights. Once you place boots-on-the-ground to seek lucrative investment options, your competition is quite limited -- and yields rise as a result.

What do you think about investing in something like the parent company of Victorias Secret (The Gap, I think). I've noticed that no matter how bad the economy gets, women still buy stuff from VS.

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09-20-2019 08:19 PM
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SlickyBoy Offline
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Post: #119
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-20-2019 08:19 PM)bucky Wrote:  What do you think about investing in something like the parent company of Victorias Secret (The Gap, I think). I've noticed that no matter how bad the economy gets, women still buy stuff from VS.

I understand your thinking, but no matter what you decide to do just remember to never confuse the product itself with the stock. I'd say "do your research" but even that advice won't cover you - it's still very much a gamble. So I would not call it an investment, but a trade.

You could research the hell out of fundamentals behind a stock, make a decision to buy or sell and still be wrong - Tesla (TSLA) is a prime example. Shit fundamentals all over, but a cult-like product with a fanboy factor keeping the stock price up way past what it should be. This is what makes options even riskier than stock - you only have so much time to be right before they expire.

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09-21-2019 11:18 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #120
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-21-2019 11:18 AM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  
(09-20-2019 08:19 PM)bucky Wrote:  What do you think about investing in something like the parent company of Victorias Secret (The Gap, I think). I've noticed that no matter how bad the economy gets, women still buy stuff from VS.

I understand your thinking, but no matter what you decide to do just remember to never confuse the product itself with the stock. I'd say "do your research" but even that advice won't cover you - it's still very much a gamble. So I would not call it an investment, but a trade.

You could research the hell out of fundamentals behind a stock, make a decision to buy or sell and still be wrong - Tesla (TSLA) is a prime example. Shit fundamentals all over, but a cult-like product with a fanboy factor keeping the stock price up way past what it should be. This is what makes options even riskier than stock - you only have so much time to be right before they expire.

You hit the nail on the head. It is exactly this realization that made me leave the stock market. The other (related) new paradigm was that even if your analysis about the direction of the economy is 100% right, government intervention can kill you.

There is a false assumption among intelligent investors that price always equals value. That is the heart of the efficient market hypothesis, which states that stock prices always reflect all available information. Clearly, that is not true, because we have all seen both overvalued and undervalued markets -- and we have all seen both overvalued and undervalued stocks, including zombie-creatures such as Tesla that should be dead.

In fact, we have institutions such as the Federal Reserve that ensure that prices do not equal value. They intentionally distort prices, starting with the most important one: the price of money (i.e., interest rates), with all kinds of harmful side effects -- and often benefits to those who already own assets.

That does not mean that I will never again enter the markets. For example, providing that I have the available funds, I would buy value stocks at the bottom of the next financial panic. Until then, as already described, I can make far better investments at higher returns with far less risk and volatility.

I prefer asymmetric trades. Why pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, when you can simply wait to safely pick up a pile cash that is just lying there?
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2019 01:03 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-21-2019 12:52 PM
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scorpion Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Tail Gunner, could you elaborate on the details of your alternative investments? I mean, are you literally buying up acres of farmland and leasing it to farmers? Or operating a farm yourself? Or investing in some sort of farmland REIT?

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09-21-2019 02:28 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-21-2019 02:28 PM)scorpion Wrote:  Tail Gunner, could you elaborate on the details of your alternative investments? I mean, are you literally buying up acres of farmland and leasing it to farmers? Or operating a farm yourself? Or investing in some sort of farmland REIT?

Each of those scenarios can work. In my case, I purchased raw land and engaged a management company to professionally create and manage all aspects of the farm, including the sale of crops, for a portion of the annual profits. It is critical that your financial interests align in such a deal, i.e., the management company does not earn a profit unless you earn a profit.

For those who do not have the funds to create an entire farm, you can still establish a diversified portfolio of five to ten alternative investments that can rival the historic returns of the stock markets with, IMO, far less systemic risk. For example, one investment could involve maturing whiskey:

Quote: Although there are no guarantees, you should expect to profit by selling maturing whisky into normal blending demand, though prices can be volatile.

The cash price for 8-year old Scotch whisky bought new, and sold each year of the decade 2009-2018 shows average historical returns of 15.3% per annum. This number is net of our trading commission. However you would have paid storage fees of 15p per Litre of Pure Alcohol (LPA) per year, bringing the return down to 11.6% p.a. This compares very favourably to deposit rates, but it does involve some risk.

Adjusting for inflation your 'real' historical return would have been 8.2% p.a.

Each of these figures was for an equal holding of typical malt and grain whiskies. Mixed together before bottling they make blended Scotch.

https://www.whiskyinvestdirect.com/


   

https://www.whiskyinvestdirect.com/about...AUNCH02E09

If you find five to ten alternative investments like this one, you can create a nice diversified portfolio with better returns than the stock market with less risk.

BTW: You always want to properly vet any investment. In this case, Whiskey Invest Direct was conceived by the creators of BullionVault.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2019 04:17 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-21-2019 03:55 PM
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Post: #123
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-19-2019 08:15 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think this is where we disagree and this is a pretty important point which we've constantly gone in circles on in other threads but I never got a direct answer from you. Kid Twist, you are vastly underestimating the dependence of this market on Fed actions. If you go back to December last year, the market was in free fall until Powell made a complete u-turn and said QT was going to end soon and he stopped raising interest rates.

What direct answer do you want? I'm not underestimating the dependence, you are underestimating how much wiggle room they still have, and it turns out obviously that this is the case.

Quote:The only question now is whether Fed actions (including even negative interest rates) are enough to hold off the long due slowdown (setting us up for an even worse crash in a few years when we can't get back above 0% interest rates), or is it too little too late and the crash is still coming even with extreme Fed policy?

Yes, these actions will be enough, for a while --- as I've said.

Let's put it this way: There is a greater chance nothing big happens until 2024ish than something big happens in the next year. That's my view, at least ... of course, no one knows. But look at Japan ---> still chugging along, lost generation and all. Yet a bigger economy, without negative rates, the strongest military, and the world reserve currency can't do the same? That's why I continue to be "right" whatever that means, I'm just going with the trend.

Soon we can be in both "bubble" (stocks) and "anti-bubble" investments (as Diego Parrilla calls them) ... and not care. Shit, you can do that right now if you want. I just don't see a market crash anywhere near. You'll see record highs in equities, first. As always.

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09-21-2019 09:31 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #124
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-21-2019 09:31 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I just don't see a market crash anywhere near. You'll see record highs in equities, first. As always.

I suspect that the truth lies somewhere in between. The most reliable indicator of a recession has been an inverted bond yield curve, which recently occurred. While shorter periods have occurred, a recession usually follows 12-24 months after the inversion, which means that the next Presidential election should occur before the next recession -- and President Trump will use all his powers of persuasion to lower Fed interest rates to ensure that outcome.

   

The recent yield curve inversion, in August, is actually a positive sign for stocks, at least for now. That is because the S&P 500 rose significantly after the last three inversions. You can see that in the table above.

In the twelve months after the last three inversions, the S&P 500 returned an average of 18.7%. Those are major gains equal to the return on the S&P 500 since June 2017. If the pattern holds, stocks should continue to rise until at least September 2020.

Of course, there are plenty of potential black swans flying around out there.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2019 12:31 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-22-2019 12:26 AM
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RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-21-2019 02:28 PM)scorpion Wrote:  Tail Gunner, could you elaborate on the details of your alternative investments? I mean, are you literally buying up acres of farmland and leasing it to farmers? Or operating a farm yourself? Or investing in some sort of farmland REIT?

Just today, I just stumbled across this chart of REITs versus other investment classes:

   

As you can see, even REIT's produce a far better return than stocks.

Also do not overlook the 60/40 and 40/60 ratio of stocks and bonds. It performs worse than stocks alone, but with far less volatility (so that you are far less likely to exit the market during a correction or a financial crisis, which is exactly why most investors under-perform the stock indexes.
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2019 12:45 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-22-2019 12:42 PM
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