I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Author Message
robreke Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,009
Joined: Apr 2014
Reputation: 67
Post: #126
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I didn't go through every page, so it might have already been covered, but don't buy a car (or anything) that you can not afford or that crimps your cash flow.

Do the math before doing the purchase. if downgrading the car's not an option, probably just reduce your 401k contributions, though I do think we're in for another up leg, possibly significant, in the stock market, after this China trade situation gets resolved.

- One planet orbiting a star. Billions of stars in the galaxy. Billions of galaxies in the universe. Approach.

#BallsWin
09-22-2019 12:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes robreke's post:
bucky
Arado Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 955
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 21
Post: #127
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-21-2019 09:31 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-19-2019 08:15 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think this is where we disagree and this is a pretty important point which we've constantly gone in circles on in other threads but I never got a direct answer from you. Kid Twist, you are vastly underestimating the dependence of this market on Fed actions. If you go back to December last year, the market was in free fall until Powell made a complete u-turn and said QT was going to end soon and he stopped raising interest rates.

What direct answer do you want? I'm not underestimating the dependence, you are underestimating how much wiggle room they still have, and it turns out obviously that this is the case.

Quote:The only question now is whether Fed actions (including even negative interest rates) are enough to hold off the long due slowdown (setting us up for an even worse crash in a few years when we can't get back above 0% interest rates), or is it too little too late and the crash is still coming even with extreme Fed policy?

Yes, these actions will be enough, for a while --- as I've said.

Let's put it this way: There is a greater chance nothing big happens until 2024ish than something big happens in the next year. That's my view, at least ... of course, no one knows. But look at Japan ---> still chugging along, lost generation and all. Yet a bigger economy, without negative rates, the strongest military, and the world reserve currency can't do the same? That's why I continue to be "right" whatever that means, I'm just going with the trend.

Soon we can be in both "bubble" (stocks) and "anti-bubble" investments (as Diego Parrilla calls them) ... and not care. Shit, you can do that right now if you want. I just don't see a market crash anywhere near. You'll see record highs in equities, first. As always.

So your prediction that there will be no crash ASSUMES that the Fed is going to go to zero within a year and will soon restart QE. The entire short term bullish case rests 100% on what the Fed does and not on the fundamentals of a growing economy.

There is a slight chance that the Fed will be behind the curve, and for whatever reason won't be that aggressive - in that case, a crash becomes MUCH more likely.

Can we agree on these two points?
09-22-2019 12:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Kid Twist Offline
Hummingbird
*****

Posts: 2,862
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 33
Post: #128
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
No. I don't think the economy is problematic enough yet for imminent collapse (meaning a year). Since that's the case, even if there is Fed has plenty of tricks in the bag to stave it off for beyond 2020. They are so very aware of a global slowdown and a liquidity problem in the US/worldwide, that my faith in them at least for this period is super high.

Again, all of this is kicking the can down the road, so we don't disagree big picture, but it's not gonna happen in 2020.

I don't mind either way because I'm in equities for next year AND own commodities and BTC long term.

Get your passport ready!
09-22-2019 10:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #129
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-22-2019 12:58 PM)Arado Wrote:  =
So your prediction that there will be no crash ASSUMES that the Fed is going to go to zero within a year and will soon restart QE. The entire short term bullish case rests 100% on what the Fed does and not on the fundamentals of a growing economy.

Thankfully, we don't have to guess what the Fed intends to do:

"After pumping another $75 billion into financial markets Friday, the New York Federal Reserve announced it would continue special operations in an attempt to keep interest rates in their intended range. Short-term rates had shot up as high as 10% at the beginning of the week, threatening to disrupt the bond market and the overall lending system.
.....
It also announced daily repos for an aggregate amount of at least $75 billion each until October 10."

hmarkets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-4th-day-2019-9-1028541586

Yes, the banking system is a ridiculous house of cards that requires near $1T to prevent it collapsing into dust before the end of the year. It will obviously require a reset of some sort in the next few years, the latest being 2024 imho.

The second is that TPTB in the USA will do whatever it takes to keep the system going. Also remember bonds are massively toxic and in a huge bubble, and the bond market is 10x larger than the stock market. Between money exiting bonds for anything tangible, foreign capital inflows into the USA, and the willingness of the TPTB to bend, break, or rewrite rules as it suits them, I don't see a scenario where the Dow doesn't make significantly higher new highs in the next 36 months. Like 35,000 or more.
09-22-2019 10:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like jeffreyjerpp's post:
Brodiaga, Kid Twist
Foolsgo1d Offline
Peacock
******

Posts: 7,040
Joined: Apr 2014
Reputation: 27
Post: #130
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
We dont know when but looking at the overall picture you get a sense that if it were to go it would create significant turmoil outside of the financial markets.
09-23-2019 05:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Arado Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 955
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 21
Post: #131
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-22-2019 10:10 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-22-2019 12:58 PM)Arado Wrote:  =
So your prediction that there will be no crash ASSUMES that the Fed is going to go to zero within a year and will soon restart QE. The entire short term bullish case rests 100% on what the Fed does and not on the fundamentals of a growing economy.

Thankfully, we don't have to guess what the Fed intends to do:

"After pumping another $75 billion into financial markets Friday, the New York Federal Reserve announced it would continue special operations in an attempt to keep interest rates in their intended range. Short-term rates had shot up as high as 10% at the beginning of the week, threatening to disrupt the bond market and the overall lending system.
.....
It also announced daily repos for an aggregate amount of at least $75 billion each until October 10."

hmarkets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-4th-day-2019-9-1028541586

Yes, the banking system is a ridiculous house of cards that requires near $1T to prevent it collapsing into dust before the end of the year. It will obviously require a reset of some sort in the next few years, the latest being 2024 imho.

The second is that TPTB in the USA will do whatever it takes to keep the system going. Also remember bonds are massively toxic and in a huge bubble, and the bond market is 10x larger than the stock market. Between money exiting bonds for anything tangible, foreign capital inflows into the USA, and the willingness of the TPTB to bend, break, or rewrite rules as it suits them, I don't see a scenario where the Dow doesn't make significantly higher new highs in the next 36 months. Like 35,000 or more.

If you are going heavy equities now anticipating a major market boost from all this liquidity, you will have to know when to get out when this thing starts to unravel. Sure you will know the right indicators to know when to get out? This is a pretty unprecedented situation historically so not much past history to rely on.

(09-22-2019 10:01 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  No. I don't think the economy is problematic enough yet for imminent collapse (meaning a year). Since that's the case, even if there is Fed has plenty of tricks in the bag to stave it off for beyond 2020. They are so very aware of a global slowdown and a liquidity problem in the US/worldwide, that my faith in them at least for this period is super high.

Again, all of this is kicking the can down the road, so we don't disagree big picture, but it's not gonna happen in 2020.

I don't mind either way because I'm in equities for next year AND own commodities and BTC long term.

That seems fair, but again, how will you know when is the right time to pull out of equities?
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2019 07:30 PM by Arado.)
09-23-2019 07:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #132
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-23-2019 07:29 PM)Arado Wrote:  If you are going heavy equities now anticipating a major market boost from all this liquidity, you will have to know when to get out when this thing starts to unravel. Sure you will know the right indicators to know when to get out? This is a pretty unprecedented situation historically so not much past history to rely on.

Let me clarify a few things- only half of my portfolio is normal equities (S&P500), the other half is precious metals investments, including a small amount in my own possession.

I am bullish on equities, but significantly more bullish on precious metals, since those markets have been directly responsive to increasing strains in the financial system, and are reverting to their historical role as a safe haven.

Another important thing is that I don’t plan to sell any of this until AFTER the reset. As in, I think that the circumstances of this crisis are totally unique in world history, and equities will RISE during the crisis, moving up simultaneously with Gold and the Dollar, leaving the majority of people utterly baffled (and possibly broke).

The previous two bubble triggers were tech stocks and housing. Now it is BONDS, especially government bonds. The entire worldwide bond market will crash spectacularly, a Chernobyl type meltdown unlike anything EVER recorded in world history. When the dust settles, and the new gay international crypto currency has been introduced to allow governments to devalue their own currencies, only people holding tangibly valuable goods will have wealth.

Anyone holding an IOU from a government or corporation on the other hand will be left crying bitterly.

When real estate in hardcore Republican states has been crushed, I will trade the equities and Gold for an apartment building or similar. During the Great Depression, RE crashed by roughly 90%, so it shouldn’t be too expensive.
09-23-2019 08:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes jeffreyjerpp's post:
Monty_Brogan
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #133
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-23-2019 07:29 PM)Arado Wrote:  
(09-22-2019 10:10 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-22-2019 12:58 PM)Arado Wrote:  =
So your prediction that there will be no crash ASSUMES that the Fed is going to go to zero within a year and will soon restart QE. The entire short term bullish case rests 100% on what the Fed does and not on the fundamentals of a growing economy.

Thankfully, we don't have to guess what the Fed intends to do:

"After pumping another $75 billion into financial markets Friday, the New York Federal Reserve announced it would continue special operations in an attempt to keep interest rates in their intended range. Short-term rates had shot up as high as 10% at the beginning of the week, threatening to disrupt the bond market and the overall lending system.
.....
It also announced daily repos for an aggregate amount of at least $75 billion each until October 10."

hmarkets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-4th-day-2019-9-1028541586

Yes, the banking system is a ridiculous house of cards that requires near $1T to prevent it collapsing into dust before the end of the year. It will obviously require a reset of some sort in the next few years, the latest being 2024 imho.

The second is that TPTB in the USA will do whatever it takes to keep the system going. Also remember bonds are massively toxic and in a huge bubble, and the bond market is 10x larger than the stock market. Between money exiting bonds for anything tangible, foreign capital inflows into the USA, and the willingness of the TPTB to bend, break, or rewrite rules as it suits them, I don't see a scenario where the Dow doesn't make significantly higher new highs in the next 36 months. Like 35,000 or more.

If you are going heavy equities now anticipating a major market boost from all this liquidity, you will have to know when to get out when this thing starts to unravel. Sure you will know the right indicators to know when to get out? This is a pretty unprecedented situation historically so not much past history to rely on.

(09-22-2019 10:01 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  No. I don't think the economy is problematic enough yet for imminent collapse (meaning a year). Since that's the case, even if there is Fed has plenty of tricks in the bag to stave it off for beyond 2020. They are so very aware of a global slowdown and a liquidity problem in the US/worldwide, that my faith in them at least for this period is super high.

Again, all of this is kicking the can down the road, so we don't disagree big picture, but it's not gonna happen in 2020.

I don't mind either way because I'm in equities for next year AND own commodities and BTC long term.

That seems fair, but again, how will you know when is the right time to pull out of equities?

I believe that trying to time the market is a fool's errand, which is why I am out of the markets -- especially because, as I described earlier, I can achieve better annual yields with less risk by investing in other asset classes. I also cherish the ability to sleep well at night.

When I still traded bull put option spreads, however, I used The Ivy Portfolio 10-month SMA method. While it is not perfect (especially with regards to whipsaws), it is fairly reliable -- and used by many professional investors. If you follow this method it will definitely keep your portfolio from getting blown up by the next financial panic.

Quote:Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), which we've seen most recently in 2016.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have ensured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

Here are some pertinent articles:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho...end-update

https://mebfaber.com/timing-model/

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470284897
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2019 12:15 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-24-2019 12:10 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Tail Gunner's post:
SlickyBoy, jeffreyjerpp
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #134
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-23-2019 08:22 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-23-2019 07:29 PM)Arado Wrote:  If you are going heavy equities now anticipating a major market boost from all this liquidity, you will have to know when to get out when this thing starts to unravel. Sure you will know the right indicators to know when to get out? This is a pretty unprecedented situation historically so not much past history to rely on.

Let me clarify a few things- only half of my portfolio is normal equities (S&P500), the other half is precious metals investments, including a small amount in my own possession.

I am bullish on equities, but significantly more bullish on precious metals, since those markets have been directly responsive to increasing strains in the financial system, and are reverting to their historical role as a safe haven.

Another important thing is that I don’t plan to sell any of this until AFTER the reset. As in, I think that the circumstances of this crisis are totally unique in world history, and equities will RISE during the crisis, moving up simultaneously with Gold and the Dollar, leaving the majority of people utterly baffled (and possibly broke).

The previous two bubble triggers were tech stocks and housing. Now it is BONDS, especially government bonds. The entire worldwide bond market will crash spectacularly, a Chernobyl type meltdown unlike anything EVER recorded in world history. When the dust settles, and the new gay international crypto currency has been introduced to allow governments to devalue their own currencies, only people holding tangibly valuable goods will have wealth.

Anyone holding an IOU from a government or corporation on the other hand will be left crying bitterly.

When real estate in hardcore Republican states has been crushed, I will trade the equities and Gold for an apartment building or similar. During the Great Depression, RE crashed by roughly 90%, so it shouldn’t be too expensive.

I agree that the circumstances of this crisis are totally unique in world history. I also agree that there is a good argument that that the price of equities could rise when the debt (i.e., bond) bubble bursts. But you did not explain why, so I will do so for the benefit of other members.

The bond markets dwarf the equity markets. While everyone talks about stocks it is really bonds that drive the world's economies, especially corporate and government debt. The bond markets are incredibly illiquid, so bad things can happen really fast (meaning bond markets can evaporate quickly). During a debt crisis, bondholders who hold that huge amount of debt will be desperate to liquidate their bond holdings and to park their cash anywhere that they can. Of the four major asset classes (bonds, equities, real estate, and gold), gold represents only one-half of one percent of worldwide assets. There is not enough gold in all the world to absorb all that bond money, so the theory is that bondholders will have no choice but to pile into equities.

The wild card is why would bondholders simply not exchange bonds for cash, i.e., a strong currency such as the USD or the Yen? For example, in 2008 even the price of gold plumeted as investors deleveraged and dumped all their assets (even gold) to buy USD's. Well, currencies are simply another form of debt, so the theory is that if the debt bubble bursts so will the demand for currencies. This is the great unknown. If bond investors no longer trust currencies, then they will have no choice but to purchase equities, thereby driving up prices. Obviously, the price of the small amount of available gold and silver will also explode.
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2019 12:44 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-24-2019 12:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Tail Gunner's post:
jeffreyjerpp, BBinger
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #135
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-24-2019 12:32 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(09-23-2019 08:22 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-23-2019 07:29 PM)Arado Wrote:  If you are going heavy equities now anticipating a major market boost from all this liquidity, you will have to know when to get out when this thing starts to unravel. Sure you will know the right indicators to know when to get out? This is a pretty unprecedented situation historically so not much past history to rely on.

Let me clarify a few things- only half of my portfolio is normal equities (S&P500), the other half is precious metals investments, including a small amount in my own possession.

I am bullish on equities, but significantly more bullish on precious metals, since those markets have been directly responsive to increasing strains in the financial system, and are reverting to their historical role as a safe haven.

Another important thing is that I don’t plan to sell any of this until AFTER the reset. As in, I think that the circumstances of this crisis are totally unique in world history, and equities will RISE during the crisis, moving up simultaneously with Gold and the Dollar, leaving the majority of people utterly baffled (and possibly broke).

The previous two bubble triggers were tech stocks and housing. Now it is BONDS, especially government bonds. The entire worldwide bond market will crash spectacularly, a Chernobyl type meltdown unlike anything EVER recorded in world history. When the dust settles, and the new gay international crypto currency has been introduced to allow governments to devalue their own currencies, only people holding tangibly valuable goods will have wealth.

Anyone holding an IOU from a government or corporation on the other hand will be left crying bitterly.

When real estate in hardcore Republican states has been crushed, I will trade the equities and Gold for an apartment building or similar. During the Great Depression, RE crashed by roughly 90%, so it shouldn’t be too expensive.

I agree that the circumstances of this crisis are totally unique in world history. I also agree that there is a good argument that that the price of equities could rise when the debt (i.e., bond) bubble bursts. But you did not explain why, so I will do so for the benefit of other members.

The bond markets dwarf the equity markets. While everyone talks about stocks it is really bonds that drive the world's economies, especially corporate and government debt. The bond markets are incredibly illiquid, so bad things can happen really fast (meaning bond markets can evaporate quickly). During a debt crisis, bondholders who hold that huge amount of debt will be desperate to liquidate their bond holdings and to park their cash anywhere that they can. Of the four major asset classes (bonds, equities, real estate, and gold), gold represents only one-half of one percent of worldwide assets. There is not enough gold in all the world to absorb all that bond money, so the theory is that bondholders will have no choice but to pile into equities.

The wild card is why would bondholders simply not exchange bonds for cash, i.e., a strong currency such as the USD or the Yen? For example, in 2008 even the price of gold plumeted as investors deleveraged and dumped all their assets (even gold) to buy USD's. Well, currencies are simply another form of debt, so the theory is that if the debt bubble bursts so will the demand for currencies. This is the great unknown. If bond investors no longer trust currencies, then they will have no choice but to purchase equities, thereby driving up prices. Obviously, the price of the small amount of available gold and silver will also explode.


I just read an excellent analysis of this topic (whether foreign investors will flee to U.S. equities versus U.S. Treasuries in a global financial panic) and thought that I would to post it here:

Quote:And so it makes me start to – I thought Brent Johnson was crazy the first time he told me he thought that things are really bad and stocks are going to go up as a result.

But I’m seeing the argument now that, if other people around the world start to view the US equity market as a safety trade because the choice if they want to get out of their own stock markets is to go into European negative-yielding sovereigns or into the US stock market as a safety trade where you’ve got also the FX benefit of this dollar squeeze, all of a sudden it makes it seem like maybe the US stock market could be recession-proof this time around.

Is that a possibility?

Grant: Of course it is. I mean, everything is a possibility. There is nothing that you can categorically say, that cannot happen. Who would have said that negative interest rates cannot happen five years ago? Most people. We would have said that. Of course the scenario you’ve laid out could absolutely happen.

But I think if we go into a recession, if we start seeing poor numbers, we start seeing companies cutting jobs, we start seeing the human side of a recession, it’s going to very tough to just jump in and buy the US equity market.

I think people, if they see a recession, will close their eyes, hold their nose, and buy more Treasuries. I think that’s the safety trade, the real safety trade.

Because it’s amazing how, suddenly, if there are signs that we’re in a recession, it’s amazing how, suddenly, these valuation metrics that we’ve kind of forgotten about start to matter. You know, price-to-sales, price-to-book, all the valuations that have just most of us shaking our heads who’ve had any kind of longevity in these markets, understanding not for a second why they’re being up to the places they are.

In a recession, those things do matter. And it won’t just be a case of, buy me stocks for the safety. It will be, buy me Treasuries.

You know, Albert Edwards and, I think, Raoul were talking about minus 4% on the US 2-year as a possibility. Now think about that. We’re at what 1.4-ish now? Just think about what a move that would be and what it would take to drive that down there. And that will not happen in the face of a soaring stock market.

So is it a possibility? Absolutely it’s a possibility; it could get there. Brent, as you said, laid it out very well and very clearly as to how it might happen.

To me, I think that’s a very dangerous assumption make. To trade long stocks with that as your base case, I think is a very risky thing to do. I really do.

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-tran...just-begun


BTW: If you are interested in investing in gold as insurance, then read the end of that same article.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2019 12:00 AM by Tail Gunner.)
09-25-2019 11:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
jeffreyjerpp
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #136
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-25-2019 11:39 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  BTW: If you are interested in investing in gold as insurance, then read the end of that same article.

Great article, thank you for posting.

Choice quote:

"But I think, if you believe that we are in a new precious metals bull market and you want to trade it, then it’s not so much about the metal, about the gold price. It is about these mining stocks."
-Grant Williams

I like his opinion because it validates mine.
09-26-2019 08:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes jeffreyjerpp's post:
Tail Gunner
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #137
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-26-2019 08:58 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-25-2019 11:39 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  BTW: If you are interested in investing in gold as insurance, then read the end of that same article.

Great article, thank you for posting.

Choice quote:

"But I think, if you believe that we are in a new precious metals bull market and you want to trade it, then it’s not so much about the metal, about the gold price. It is about these mining stocks."
-Grant Williams

I like his opinion because it validates mine.

I just discovered that web site and I have been slowly reading some of the archived articles. This article pertaining to the "Eurodollar" shadow banking system causing the 2008 financial panic really blew my mind:

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-tran...m-overview


Then I found an older article by the same author pertaining to gold. He wrote the article 18 months ago and he was spot on about the strengthening dollar. He also explains gold's peculiar price action since 2011.

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcast-tran...-anomalies
09-28-2019 11:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Lampwick
Loki131 Offline
Pigeon

Posts: 22
Joined: Apr 2016
Reputation: 0
Post: #138
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
This was a great thread. I learned a lot from all of you! Thank you.

For OP, whatever you are comfortable with. If you lower your 401k and sell a few pieces of gold (that you made a significant profit on), that would be a reasonable compromise. I lowered my 401k contribution to pay off debt, and now looking to buy gold and silver as insurance. I’ll probably increase my contribution by a percent or two to match employer again, but that’s it.
09-29-2019 06:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #139
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
So Gold is very likely going to retrace in the next few months, back to the $1375 level in all likelihood:

[Image: EFvelSOX0AE4ESx?format=png&name=small]

Personally, I am going to "back up the truck", and be a heavy buyer from now on, including some physical coins, likely a few American Eagles.

Substantial cracks are starting to emerge in the financial system. Even if TPTB find some way to paper it over (again), I don't see how Gold doesn't rally majorly.

"Yet those going off by the detail in today's repo operation may have a slightly more rosy take on the funding situation because according to ICAP, the overnight general collateral repo rate surged almost 1%, from 1.85% on Friday to as high as 2.8% on Monday, as quarter-end funding dynamics added to pressure on borrowing costs amid an already tense environment for money markets."

zerohedge.com/markets/repo-rate-soars-fed-accepts-635-billion-collateral-last-day-q3

^What's happening here is that the artificially low interest rates set by governments are NOT being supported by the free market. The Federal Reserve is having to intervene to suppress overnight lending interest rates, and also (obviously) interest rates in general. Martin Armstrong has discussed this at length:

"I understand what I have warned about is not in any textbooks we were ever handed in school. During a liquidity crisis in which we have begun post-Labor Day, the shortage of money forces real rates to rise and that can be very dramatic. Don’t forget that it was the REPO market which brought down Lehman and Bear Stearns.
.........
When I say we have put together the largest database on a global scale of the world economy, I am not kidding. I fully understand that nobody has ever heard of a split in the interest rates between public and private that can be at odds with one another. But in assembling all of this data and allowing the global correlations to unfold, we actually have a shot at understanding how the economy truly functions and where we are headed. All of the economic theories we were taught in school have FAILED!!!!! Quantitative Easing for more than 10 years has utterly failed to produce inflation despite the vast increase in the supply of money. That alone stands as a witness that Keynesian Economics does not work.
..........
As for what lies ahead, the Free Markets will dictate the trend. The central banks have lost control of the world economy and they have become the source of the problem. They are trapped. As time passes, you will come to see the full force of the Free Markets. BTW – it was also the Free Markets which defeated Communism. They are doing the same with socialism."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/marke...est-rates/

In other words, government finances are about to get totally destroyed in the next few years, as the free market eventually forces interest rates upwards, resulting in a different dynamic than anything we've ever really seen before.
09-30-2019 09:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #140
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-30-2019 09:45 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  So Gold is very likely going to retrace in the next few months, back to the $1375 level in all likelihood

I read an article today that said the very same thing.

https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/go...med-603240

But the fundamentals are always more important than the technical charts. For example, if the price of gold goes down to $1375 and then the U.S. and China suddenly announce a trade deal while gold was still at that price level, then the price would go even lower based on that short-term news.
(This post was last modified: 09-30-2019 11:43 PM by Tail Gunner.)
09-30-2019 11:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
eradicator
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #141
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-30-2019 09:45 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  So Gold is very likely going to retrace in the next few months, back to the $1375 level in all likelihood:

[Image: EFvelSOX0AE4ESx?format=png&name=small]

Personally, I am going to "back up the truck", and be a heavy buyer from now on, including some physical coins, likely a few American Eagles.

The head and shoulders pattern has FAILED.....this is really quite bullish for gold. We'll see where this goes over the next few weeks.
10-02-2019 08:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #142
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-02-2019 08:46 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  The head and shoulders pattern has FAILED.....this is really quite bullish for gold. We'll see where this goes over the next few weeks.

It is too early to say that it failed. If gold declined $30 in the next few days the price level would simply be back where it was yesterday, in terms of chart action. Here is an interesting article that supports the position that the price of gold is more apt to climb:

https://www.forex.com/en-us/market-analy...nd-stocks/
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2019 09:21 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-02-2019 09:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
jeffreyjerpp
bucky Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 519
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #143
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-22-2019 12:49 PM)robreke Wrote:  I didn't go through every page, so it might have already been covered, but don't buy a car (or anything) that you can not afford or that crimps your cash flow.

Do the math before doing the purchase. if downgrading the car's not an option, probably just reduce your 401k contributions, though I do think we're in for another up leg, possibly significant, in the stock market, after this China trade situation gets resolved.

I appreciate your advice and that of the other posters. Didn't expect this to become by far the most active thread of all I've started, and I haven't had time to read through all of it either.

I definitely agree about not buying a car you can't afford as a general rule. My situation is unusual. Without going into too much detail, I moved "up north" (to avoid being more specific about my location) for a much better job and don't want to risk driving around in a non-AWD vehicle for another winter, especially now that I have small children to haul around. Came too close to a major accident or sliding off the road in the mountains too many times last winter. I could move away to somewhere with milder winters, but I doubt giving up this job and its potential for advancing my career in addition to the expense of moving would ultimately be a better financial decision than sticking it out here with a vehicle more adapted to these winters.

Bit of a risk, but I'm willing to take it, and this is a car I can almost certainly afford, although worst case scenario it might involve something like what I proposed in my OP. Regardless, whether or not I'm being an idiot wasn't really the point, I was just interested in seeing what the other forum members really believe about the coming financial collapse or lack thereof.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
10-02-2019 11:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
brianmark Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 577
Joined: May 2011
Reputation: 6
Post: #144
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-08-2019 09:32 AM)bucky Wrote:  This question is mainly for my fellow American shitlords.

Let's say you bought a car and it turns out after a few months that you stretched yourself a bit thin financially and could use a few hunderd bucks extra some months to make the payments. You contribute a few hundred to your 401k each month, and you also have about 10k worth of gold and silver coins. Which would you do, stop contributing to the 401k or sell of some of the gold and silver here and there as necessary?

In thinking about this, I realized that it really comes down to whether or not you believe that the USD or the US government itself is eventually going to collapse in your lifetime. I've always felt that the system is unsustainable and will collapse sooner or later, but then again I've been expecting it within the next ten or twenty years most of my life, and I'm almost 50 now. Maybe things will just continue to limp along more or less like they are now and those 401k fiat dollars will be more valueable than the coins when I'm retired in a few decades.

I'm interested in hearing your opinions. Totally hypothetical question and just asking for a friend, of course.

Yes, the crash will come, but who knows when. You'll probably see more than one during your lifetime. At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

10-03-2019 05:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes brianmark's post:
bucky
bucky Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 519
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #145
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-03-2019 05:03 AM)brianmark Wrote:  At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

That's the trick, isn't it? 401k money can disappear like Soviet rubles, gold can be stolen by marauding biker gangs in a Mad Max like hellscape, and so on. Rust doth corrupt and thieves break through and steal, as the Bible says.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
10-03-2019 06:40 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #146
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-03-2019 06:40 AM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 05:03 AM)brianmark Wrote:  At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

That's the trick, isn't it? 401k money can disappear like Soviet rubles, gold can be stolen by marauding biker gangs in a Mad Max like hellscape, and so on. Rust doth corrupt and thieves break through and steal, as the Bible says.

What is with the victim mentality? You can store gold in a world-class vault in a country where crime is almost irrelevant (Switzerland, Singapore, etc.). You can hedge your stock portfolio. Gold is a form of insurance, so is hedging. Research the original purpose of hedge funds. You can now hedge for yourself.

Or how about diversification? Even without hedging, in 2008 when the stock market tanked 60%, a 60/40 bond/stock portfolio decreased only 24%. You still took a hit, but it was not a huge life-changing hit. Act like the herd, get slaughtered like the herd. Much of this conversation come down to: "Don't be stupid."
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2019 10:10 AM by Tail Gunner.)
10-03-2019 10:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #147
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
If you thought that I was joking about bonds as a hedge in my last post, read this news article that I just read:

Quote:Some Bond ETFs Are Having A Good Year
POSTED ON October 3, 2019 BY Matt Thalman

With the Federal Reserve once again in an “interest rate-cutting” mood, some bond investors are making fantastic returns in 2019. Several bond ETFs are beating the S&P 500 year-to-date, despite the popular index increasing by more than 20% thus far in 2019.

Perhaps you are wondering how boring old bonds could be beating top growth and technology stocks in 2019?

Well, the answer is simple; when interest rates fall, long term bonds that have higher “nearly guaranteed” yields become more valuable. If current 10-year Treasury yields are around 1.75%, but you own an older 10-year Treasury bond that is yielding say 3.0%, investors who are looking for safe, reliable yields, will be willing to pay a nice premium for your older 10-year Treasury bond.

Funds such as the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT), the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV), and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) are all increasing in value as interest rates decline. Year to date, these three ETFs are up 21.37%, 25.01%, and 18.36% respectively, all without using any sort of leverage.

The three bond ETFs mentioned above are all increasing in value while current interest rates fall. However, these three funds and many others like them will do the opposite when interest rates begin to climb higher. But, since the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are in rate-cutting mode, investors can reasonably expect rates to stay at their depressed states for some time, if not go even lower.

That is where current investors, who may have missed out on the bond rally, can perhaps still get in on the party and reap the rewards. If the Fed decides interest rates are not low enough in the coming months and again cuts rates, certain bond funds will continue to increase in value.

After cutting rates in September, Fed Chairman Powell said, “If the economy does turn down, then a more extensive sequence of rate cuts will be appropriate.” How high the long-term bond funds will increase will be based on how low current interest rates fall.

https://www.ino.com/blog/2019/10/some-bo...ZZyRUZKjIV


If a stock correction (or a bear market) occurs, the Fed will undoubtedly lower interest rates -- which drives up bond prices. That acts as an effective hedge against lower stock prices.
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2019 08:45 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-03-2019 08:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
jeffreyjerpp
bucky Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 519
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #148
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-03-2019 10:05 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 06:40 AM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 05:03 AM)brianmark Wrote:  At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

That's the trick, isn't it? 401k money can disappear like Soviet rubles, gold can be stolen by marauding biker gangs in a Mad Max like hellscape, and so on. Rust doth corrupt and thieves break through and steal, as the Bible says.

What is with the victim mentality? You can store gold in a world-class vault in a country where crime is almost irrelevant (Switzerland, Singapore, etc.). You can hedge your stock portfolio. Gold is a form of insurance, so is hedging. Research the original purpose of hedge funds. You can now hedge for yourself.

Or how about diversification? Even without hedging, in 2008 when the stock market tanked 60%, a 60/40 bond/stock portfolio decreased only 24%. You still took a hit, but it was not a huge life-changing hit. Act like the herd, get slaughtered like the herd. Much of this conversation come down to: "Don't be stupid."

I don't think of being in touch with reality as having a victim mentality, but YMMV and you probably haven't seen nearly as many Soviet-era bank books as I have. Sure, do your best to save and invest wisely, but money and all material things are transient and can be lost in spite of the best plans.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
10-03-2019 09:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,705
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #149
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-03-2019 09:52 PM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 10:05 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 06:40 AM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 05:03 AM)brianmark Wrote:  At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

That's the trick, isn't it? 401k money can disappear like Soviet rubles, gold can be stolen by marauding biker gangs in a Mad Max like hellscape, and so on. Rust doth corrupt and thieves break through and steal, as the Bible says.

What is with the victim mentality? You can store gold in a world-class vault in a country where crime is almost irrelevant (Switzerland, Singapore, etc.). You can hedge your stock portfolio. Gold is a form of insurance, so is hedging. Research the original purpose of hedge funds. You can now hedge for yourself.

Or how about diversification? Even without hedging, in 2008 when the stock market tanked 60%, a 60/40 bond/stock portfolio decreased only 24%. You still took a hit, but it was not a huge life-changing hit. Act like the herd, get slaughtered like the herd. Much of this conversation come down to: "Don't be stupid."

I don't think of being in touch with reality as having a victim mentality, but YMMV and you probably haven't seen nearly as many Soviet-era bank books as I have. Sure, do your best to save and invest wisely, but money and all material things are transient and can be lost in spite of the best plans.

You completely missed my point. You are not in touch with reality because you suffer from a victim mentality (or an ostrich mentality), despite the fact that there are literally hundreds of simple low-cost steps that you can take to protect yourself. I have already named some of them, including simple headging strategies or diversification.

Soviet-era bank books? My grandparents fled from their homeland when the Soviet tanks rolled in. My family lived through that horror -- and I learned from it. "Money and all material things are transient and can be lost in spite of the best plans?" Really? In spite of the best plans? Although I am not wealthy, I have investments on three continents (and plan on having one on a fourth). I have a second citizenship, I have several foreign residencies, and I just created an offshore business. I do not whine about what might happen. Instead, I make cost-effective plans (as insurance) for the widest possible array of contingencies.

If you read history, the Nazis did not really want to kill the Jews. At least not in the beginning. This is documented in journals. The Nazis made life miserable for the Jews, hoping that they would leave Germany. Millions did. Millions of others did not. The Jews were killed only because, after war broke out and international propriety became irrelevant, the Nazis had free reign to do what they wished. The Jews who were murdered did not believe the warnings of their national leaders, failed to make arrangements to leave while they could, or failed to diversify their assets overseas and valued their material possessions over their lives. You ignore the warnings of people with political power at your own risk.

When Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren talk about a wealth tax, targeting "the wealthy," gun confiscation, and spending tens of trillions of dollars, I believe them. If they get the opportunity (i.e., full control of Congress and the White House), I believe that they will do exactly as they say. I will be ready. Will you?
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2019 12:10 AM by Tail Gunner.)
10-03-2019 11:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
bucky Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 519
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #150
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-03-2019 11:55 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 09:52 PM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 10:05 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 06:40 AM)bucky Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 05:03 AM)brianmark Wrote:  At 50, if you are concerned you should keep no more than 50% in risky investments. Really no more than you can afford to lose and still retire.

That's the trick, isn't it? 401k money can disappear like Soviet rubles, gold can be stolen by marauding biker gangs in a Mad Max like hellscape, and so on. Rust doth corrupt and thieves break through and steal, as the Bible says.

What is with the victim mentality? You can store gold in a world-class vault in a country where crime is almost irrelevant (Switzerland, Singapore, etc.). You can hedge your stock portfolio. Gold is a form of insurance, so is hedging. Research the original purpose of hedge funds. You can now hedge for yourself.

Or how about diversification? Even without hedging, in 2008 when the stock market tanked 60%, a 60/40 bond/stock portfolio decreased only 24%. You still took a hit, but it was not a huge life-changing hit. Act like the herd, get slaughtered like the herd. Much of this conversation come down to: "Don't be stupid."

I don't think of being in touch with reality as having a victim mentality, but YMMV and you probably haven't seen nearly as many Soviet-era bank books as I have. Sure, do your best to save and invest wisely, but money and all material things are transient and can be lost in spite of the best plans.

You completely missed my point. You are not in touch with reality because you suffer from a victim mentality (or an ostrich mentality), despite the fact that there are literally hundreds of simple low-cost steps that you can take to protect yourself. I have already named some of them, including simple headging strategies or diversification.

Soviet-era bank books? My grandparents fled from their homeland when the Soviet tanks rolled in. My family lived through that horror -- and I learned from it. "Money and all material things are transient and can be lost in spite of the best plans?" Really? In spite of the best plans? Although I am not wealthy, I have investments on three continents (and plan on having one on a fourth). I have a second citizenship, I have several foreign residencies, and I just created an offshore business. I do not whine about what might happen. Instead, I make cost-effective plans (as insurance) for the widest possible array of contingencies.

If you read history, the Nazis did not really want to kill the Jews. At least not in the beginning. This is documented in journals. The Nazis made life miserable for the Jews, hoping that they would leave Germany. Millions did. Millions of others did not. The Jews were killed only because, after war broke out and international propriety became irrelevant, the Nazis had free reign to do what they wished. The Jews who were murdered did not believe the warnings of their national leaders, failed to make arrangements to leave while they could, or failed to diversify their assets overseas and valued their material possessions over their lives. You ignore the warnings of people with political power at your own risk.

When Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren talk about a wealth tax, targeting "the wealthy," gun confiscation, and spending tens of trillions of dollars, I believe them. If they get the opportunity (i.e., full control of Congress and the White House), I believe that they will do exactly as they say. I will be ready. Will you?

I don't know. I hope so. I don't think of awareness of the uncertain nature of the future as "whining" or a "victim mentality." Maybe you put your confidence entirely in yourself rather than God as I do, I don't know. For example, I accept the losing all or most of my material wealth as a something that could happen and although I'd prefer to avoid that, if it were to happen I'd try to see it as God's plan for me.

Regardless, in a way I envy your confidence that you've got it all figured out and know exactly what's coming. You remind me a bit of Vox Day with his guarantees that Donald Trump would win in 2016, the Republicans would hold on the House in 2018, and that the US government will collapse in the 2030s. Who knows, maybe you do actually know what's coming, and even if you don't, it must be reassuring to believe that for now.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
10-04-2019 08:13 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? thegmanifesto 408 162,094 09-15-2019 07:41 AM
Last Post: Polniy_Sostav
  Gold backed crypto Blake2 4 708 09-07-2019 10:49 AM
Last Post: [email protected]
  Silver/Gold and other Precious Metal "stacking" Polniy_Sostav 9 2,125 07-19-2019 07:51 PM
Last Post: zoom

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication