I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Author Message
Jaydublin Offline
Pelican
****

Posts: 1,662
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation: 5
Post: #176
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-24-2019 09:13 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  I enjoy Rickards commentary, but it cannot be said enough times: He has been dead wrong about everything for a decade. If you listened to him for the last several years, you lost immense amounts of money.

His analysis is interesting and insightful, but his predictions and financial recommendations are generally terrible.

I say this also as an enthusiastic buyer of precious metals related securities at the moment. Still, as a massive gold rally probably unfolds over the next few years, it will simply be Rickards acting as the broken clock that is right twice per day, rather than a skilled analyst of some sort.

Anyone referencing him, or Peter Schiff, or any of the other ridiculous gold bugs who cost investors a fortune over the last few years, should do so with other supporting evidence or an acknowledgement that the source is dubious at best.

Agreed. Peter way over charges, Casey had a garbage newsletter before selling it to Stansberry, Rickards has been pretty wrong on investment advice and even pumped a gold stock newsletter in 2016 with some secret guy named "goldfinger" lol.

It is easy to get caught up in that fear mongering with so much uncertainty. I really bought into it in 2008 when I found Peter Schiff because it seemed like he had called it all along. What a financial mistake it was to not hedge my bets back then.

To keep on the thread topic, I have learned its always good to hedge, especially if you aren't an expert. I refused to even put money into retirement accounts in 2008-2015. 401k matches and the tax benefits just shouldn't be turned down.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 10:00 AM by Jaydublin.)
10-24-2019 09:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #177
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-24-2019 09:13 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 09:00 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:58 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  He did discuss them, at length in Chapter 6. He also covers the changes with respect to the Yuan joining the mix, and SDR price of gold. He is convinced the SDR-pegged-to-gold market is being subtly rigged already, not by the IMF, but by China.

It has already busted way out of that ~900 range he was claiming. Its been int he 1100 range the last few months but does seem to be holding pretty consistantly.

I enjoy Rickards commentary, but it cannot be said enough times: He has been dead wrong about everything for a decade. If you listened to him for the last several years, you lost immense amounts of money.

His analysis is interesting and insightful, but his predictions and financial recommendations are generally terrible.

I say this also as an enthusiastic buyer of precious metals related securities at the moment. Still, as a massive gold rally probably unfolds over the next few years, it will simply be Rickards acting as the broken clock that is right twice per day, rather than a skilled analyst of some sort.

Anyone referencing him, or Peter Schiff, or any of the other ridiculous gold bugs who cost investors a fortune over the last few years, should do so with other supporting evidence or an acknowledgement that the source is dubious at best.

To be fair, every true economist worth his salt has been wrong, because these are literally unprecedented times in human economic history. After TPTB saved the financial system in 2008, after almost destroying it, they instituted a number of short-sighted policies that will have long-term catastrophic results. So, it is easy to be wrong in the short-term as a real economist when TPTB take unprecedented actions, such as ZIRP and NIRP and QE, etc.

I have no doubt that Rickards, Schiff, and all the other Austrian economists will be vindicated in the long run. Timing is always the most difficult part of the investing equation -- and it is utterly impossible to get the timing right under unprecedented conditions because history does not offer an adequate guide. The Great Financial Reset could happen next year -- or a decade from now. TPTB will scratch-and-claw to maintain the status quo, because the alternative risks the loss of their political power which is unthinkable to them.

Regardless of what you do, you need to find a way to hedge to preserve your wealth. We are living in a long, dark financial period when we must be ever-vigilant and watchful of any warning signs. Actually, the Bible sums this situation up rather nicely (in a different context):

Quote:For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, “Peace and safety!” then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. You are all sons of light and sons of the day. We are not of the night nor of darkness. Therefore let us not sleep, as others do, but let us watch and be sober.

1 Thessalonians 5:2-6
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 10:48 AM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 10:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Loki131
Arado Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 963
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 21
Post: #178
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-24-2019 10:33 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 09:13 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 09:00 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 10:58 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  He did discuss them, at length in Chapter 6. He also covers the changes with respect to the Yuan joining the mix, and SDR price of gold. He is convinced the SDR-pegged-to-gold market is being subtly rigged already, not by the IMF, but by China.

It has already busted way out of that ~900 range he was claiming. Its been int he 1100 range the last few months but does seem to be holding pretty consistantly.

I enjoy Rickards commentary, but it cannot be said enough times: He has been dead wrong about everything for a decade. If you listened to him for the last several years, you lost immense amounts of money.

His analysis is interesting and insightful, but his predictions and financial recommendations are generally terrible.

I say this also as an enthusiastic buyer of precious metals related securities at the moment. Still, as a massive gold rally probably unfolds over the next few years, it will simply be Rickards acting as the broken clock that is right twice per day, rather than a skilled analyst of some sort.

Anyone referencing him, or Peter Schiff, or any of the other ridiculous gold bugs who cost investors a fortune over the last few years, should do so with other supporting evidence or an acknowledgement that the source is dubious at best.

To be fair, every true economist worth his salt has been wrong, because these are literally unprecedented times in human economic history. After TPTB saved the financial system in 2008, after almost destroying it, they instituted a number of short-sighted policies that will have long-term catastrophic results. So, it is easy to be wrong in the short-term as a real economist when TPTB take unprecedented actions, such as ZIRP and NIRP and QE, etc.

I have no doubt that Rickards, Schiff, and all the other Austrian economists will be vindicated in the long run. Timing is always the most difficult part of the investing equation -- and it is utterly impossible to get the timing right under unprecedented conditions because history does not offer an adequate guide. The Great Financial Reset could happen next year -- or a decade from now. TPTB will scratch-and-claw to maintain the status quo, because the alternative risks the loss of their political power which is unthinkable to them.

Regardless of what you do, you need to find a way to hedge to preserve your wealth. We are living in a long, dark financial period when we must be ever-vigilant and watchful of any warning signs. Actually, the Bible sums this situation up rather nicely (in a different context):

Quote:For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, “Peace and safety!” then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. You are all sons of light and sons of the day. We are not of the night nor of darkness. Therefore let us not sleep, as others do, but let us watch and be sober.

1 Thessalonians 5:2-6

You can take every macro commentator - Jim Kramer, Peter Schiff, Ray Dalio, Jim Rickards, Alan Greenspan, Paul Krugman, etc and ALL OF THEM WILL MAKE MAJOR MISTAKES

Macroeconomics, fundamentally, is still a nascent field - the modern fiat financial system has only been around for a few decades. No one knows how things will turn out in the short run because we can't predict psychology and the Central Banks always have tricks up their sleeves to manipulate things, and the media often assists them.

When people make an argument, you shouldn't pay too much attention to who is saying it and instead ask yourself whether it makes sense. Right now, the arguments Peter Schiff is making on gold make sense given the amount of printing going on and outstanding debt levels. His arguments on bitcoin I'm less convinced.

If you are going to hate on Schiff, you have to acknowledge that his predictions over the past two years have been SPOT ON. The Fed's rate hike in December 2018 was the last in this cycle. Since then, they have had two rate cuts and are back to QE4 just like Schiff predicted. A year ago, the vast majority of commentators thought the Fed was going to keep hiking and QT without a problem.

Perhaps no one knows what the hell they are talking about - after all these are unprecedented times. The size of the military industrial complex and welfare state, both dependent on fiat printing, is pretty unprecedented in all of human history.

Just because the doomsayers are wrong on timing doesn't mean that they won't be right eventually.
10-24-2019 07:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Arado's post:
Tail Gunner, Loki131
Kid Twist Offline
Hummingbird
*****

Posts: 2,907
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 34
Post: #179
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-24-2019 07:44 PM)Arado Wrote:  Just because the doomsayers are wrong on timing doesn't mean that they won't be right eventually.

Yes, I'm going to die one day too. All people who aren't loony will be right about most things, eventually. The problem is that it doesn't help anyone all that much.

Get your passport ready!
10-24-2019 08:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #180
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-24-2019 08:21 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 07:44 PM)Arado Wrote:  Just because the doomsayers are wrong on timing doesn't mean that they won't be right eventually.

Yes, I'm going to die one day too. All people who aren't loony will be right about most things, eventually. The problem is that it doesn't help anyone all that much.

Sure it does. If economists such as Rickards and Schiff are correct about the macroeconomics but they off on the exact timing (as almost everyone will be) then there are certainly a few things that any intelligent investor can do. For example, placing 10% of your investment cash into precious metals is something that anyone can do. Going a step further, you can get out of paper assets (stocks, bonds, and derivatives) and get into mostly hard assets (real estate, farms, businesses, etc.). If you simply take the time to educate yourself, you can achieve higher yields with far less volatility and far less risk than simply staying in the markets. One of the biggest lies out there is that you must be in the stock market to increase your wealth.

   

   
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 10:40 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 10:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Arado
Kid Twist Offline
Hummingbird
*****

Posts: 2,907
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 34
Post: #181
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
The annualized returns stats are always based on an arbitrary time period chosen, such as yours above.

Now, Arado knows that I agree with you all structurally and fundamentally, and that a big quake will go down, eventually. But in my view or definition, if you are claiming "something big" is going to happen and it doesn't happen in 2 years, you were wrong. Why were you wrong?

If you had followed the advice from all of the above, then you left enormous returns on the table.

Being close to the timing is good advice, I agree --- and I'm pretty flexible here. Let's be real though, these guys are already way off on their timing, given their dire predictions.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2019 08:13 PM by Kid Twist.)
10-25-2019 08:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #182
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-25-2019 08:12 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  If you had followed the advice from all of the above, then you left enormous returns on the table.

You missed a key secondary point of my last post. You can protect yourself against a structurally unsound banking and financial system and still earn superior returns by simply investing in hard assets that carry far less risk and volatility than the markets.

This is not rocket science. It simply involves thinking outside-the-box and avoiding the brainwashing of the Wall Street crowd that you must invest in their unsound system. There is an entire world of alternative investments -- and countries that actually have interest rates established by the free market. In fact, you can beat the 20-year S&P index by simply divvying up your cash in four or five countries that need USD and pay market interest rates for the privilege:

Quote:Similarly, Cambodian banks offer interest rates exceeding 6% on their USD term deposits – far higher than anywhere in the states. Interest rates aren’t too shabby at Thai banks either.

https://www.investasian.com/2019/10/12/m...recession/

In the case of Cambodia, unlike the U.S. it has not suffered a single recession in twenty years.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2019 10:00 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-25-2019 09:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Kid Twist
scorpion Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,590
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 260
Post: #183
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Tail Gunner, you can't be serious here. You're talking about avoiding risk by investing in banks in developing countries? No one is arguing that there aren't some very good investment opportunities outside the traditional 401k and stock market if you're willing to do the homework (and in some cases, legwork). But if the kind of collapse you're predicting occurs there is no safe asset class, period. I certainly wouldn't want my money tied up in a Cambodian bank if there was a systemic market/banking collapse, because the developing countries will be hit by the contagion as well. And they don't have the size and sheer inertia to weather those storms the same way the behemoth U.S. economy does.

People have been preaching doom about the U.S. economy and banking system for literally decades now. Yet for all of its problems the U.S. remains the strongest economy in the world. The average guy is better off investing in stocks than anything else, for the simple fact that it's very easy and proven over the long term. You're investing in ownership shares of the largest and most successful companies in the world. These are companies serving the needs of businesses and consumers all over the world. Regardless of what happens to the economy or the banking system, business will continue, because humans have a desire to have their needs met, and businesses will step in to fill those needs. Far more money has been lost by doomsayers preparing for the next recession than has actually been lost during recessions. You think you're doing guys a favor by telling them to get out of the markets, but in reality you're liking costing them a ton of money over the long term. That's exactly what happened if you followed the advice of Peter Schiff and others for the past decade.

It's not good to let fear dictate your investment decisions. Prudence, certainly. But if fear of something (collapse, in this case) is your overriding concern, you're probably not going to make the best choices. Because there is ALWAYS something to fear. And there is ALWAYS some guy out there preaching doom no matter what. If things are bad? Guess what, we're all doomed! And if things are going amazingly well? Does that mean we don't need to be afraid? No! In that case doom is just around the corner! You see how this works? There is always doom from these guys.

Most of the guys on this forum have at least a 25-30 year investment horizon before they need to start drawing down their investments. They need to be investing for the long term. And the reality is that most guys are not going to be buying up farmland or investing in third world banks. So when you scare them out of the markets with this doom talk you're basically just telling them to stick their money in the bank and let it get eaten away by inflation, which screws them over big time in the long term.

Anyway, don't take this as too much of a criticism, because I actually agree with a lot of what you say and am glad you are presenting your perspective. But I think guys will benefit from hearing a more orthodox approach to investing as well so they can decide for themselves what kind of investment exposure they want.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
10-26-2019 12:29 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 5 users Like scorpion's post:
Syberpunk, bucky, kamoz, DamienCasanova, RoastBeefCurtains4Me
MichaelWitcoff Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 512
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 12
Post: #184
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I think there's really no way to predict what's going to happen or when, but it's wise to hope for the best while preparing for the worst. In practical terms that means a well-balanced portfolio not just of stocks, but of stocks, crypto, paper, metals, and also investing in things that may be worth very little now but could potentially be very valuable in a grid-down situation. I'd rather be way over-stocked on things like lighters and duct tape and never need them, then find myself unable to create light or fire or fix stuff unless I trade precious things like food or water for them later.

That said, "nobody knows" aside, if USD doesn't eventually crash to its intrinsic worth of 0, then it'll be the first fiat currency in world history not to do so. So I think it makes sense to play the odds.

Jewish convert to Orthodox Christianity and best-selling author of "On The Masons And Their Lies."
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2019 03:38 AM by MichaelWitcoff.)
10-26-2019 03:35 AM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like MichaelWitcoff's post:
bucky, Tail Gunner, kamoz
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #185
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-26-2019 12:29 AM)scorpion Wrote:  Tail Gunner, you can't be serious here. You're talking about avoiding risk by investing in banks in developing countries? No one is arguing that there aren't some very good investment opportunities outside the traditional 401k and stock market if you're willing to do the homework (and in some cases, legwork). But if the kind of collapse you're predicting occurs there is no safe asset class, period. I certainly wouldn't want my money tied up in a Cambodian bank if there was a systemic market/banking collapse, because the developing countries will be hit by the contagion as well. And they don't have the size and sheer inertia to weather those storms the same way the behemoth U.S. economy does.

Did you miss the part where I stated "divvying up your cash in four or five countries that need USD and pay market interest rates for the privilege"? If one bank did go bust, you would lose 20% to 25% of your cash. Do you know how many main street investors exited the U.S. equity markets in 2008-2009 after losing 50% of their wealth -- and then never re-entered the markets. The average Joe, who does not have the psychological fortitude to remain in the markets after a 50% loss and then wait for a decade to regain his losses, is far better off with the strategy that I mentioned (which is simply one of many such strategies).

Did you also miss the part where I stated to keep cash in countries that "pay market interest rates for the privilege" and that "In the case of Cambodia, unlike the U.S. it has not suffered a single recession in twenty years." If you diversify, there are a number of safe countries into which to diversify your money.


(10-26-2019 12:29 AM)scorpion Wrote:  Yet for all of its problems the U.S. remains the strongest economy in the world.

It is not the U.S. economy, but the U.S. banking and financial system that is the problem. It was the U.S. banking and financial system that almost destroyed the the global financial system in 2008. I repeat: It was the U.S. banking and financial system that almost collapsed, not Cambodia or Argentina or Moldova. There are several great documentaries on how close the world came to the brink of complete financial collapse in 2008.


(10-26-2019 12:29 AM)scorpion Wrote:  Far more money has been lost by doomsayers preparing for the next recession than has actually been lost during recessions. You think you're doing guys a favor by telling them to get out of the markets, but in reality you're liking costing them a ton of money over the long term.

Was $ 22 trillion not a big enough loss for you? It was the average Joe who lost this money -- and who never came back to the markets. But the bankers made out well. You know, the same bankers who want to keep us in the same systemically unstable markets for the next shearing of the herd.

Quote:How Much Did the Financial Crisis Cost?

Lost household wealth: With home prices tanking, the report estimates a loss of $7 trillion in the real estate industry. The stock market decline has brought another $11 trillion in losses, and retirement accounts have lost $3.4 trillion.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/artic...isis-cost/


(10-26-2019 12:29 AM)scorpion Wrote:  Anyway, don't take this as too much of a criticism, because I actually agree with a lot of what you say and am glad you are presenting your perspective. But I think guys will benefit from hearing a more orthodox approach to investing as well so they can decide for themselves what kind of investment exposure they want.

Absolutely. We can have a civil debate. Thumb up
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2019 12:19 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-26-2019 12:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
PhenomKing
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #186
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
An excerpt from "Wealth, War and Wisdom" by Barton Biggs, which I am currently reading. The book is a case study, and analysis, of how people successfully preserved their wealth during the war years of the 20th Century.

In support of that analysis, it also provides many stories, involving real people, regarding what worked and what did not. Interestingly, he cites a small low-key nondescript farm in a rural area (where you can also stash your valuables) as the best place to be in WWII France (if you were forced to remain in-country).

Some excerpts from Chapter 15. There is some very sound advice here:

Quote:Complacency Is a Deadly Enemy!

Don’t become complacent. Your abundance, your affluence inevitably is attracting envy and envy leads to hatred. Get some serious capital out of the country. Having money outside of your country was a life-saving act if you were a European or Asian citizen of a Loser country during World War II.

On the other hand, your overseas fortune didn’t do you much good if you were caught in-country trying to survive during the war years. Have a bolt hole, an escape hatch, a sanctuary for yourself as well. It’s not a happy situation if you have plenty of money outside the country but are stuck in the homeland starving, imprisoned, or in a concentration camp. Many wealthy Frenchmen, both Jews and Gentiles, had money in Switzerland but had to endure the unendurable hardships of the occupation in France.

Achieving diversification by transferring money out of lucrative, in-country investments to sterile assets in a safe haven is wrenching and very expensive but it has to be viewed as catastrophe insurance. No matter how safe and secure your home country appears, even if it’s the United States, every truly wealthy person should have some assets elsewhere.

History suggests that nothing is forever. Extreme political change, a terrorist attack, a meltdown of the financial system can happen anywhere. Currency diversification is also essential. Consider carefully what currency or currencies you want your wealth to have purchasing power in. Some of the wealthy now choose to own property in a relatively secure place outside of their home country.

https://epdf.pub/wealth-war-and-wisdom.html
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2019 06:00 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-26-2019 05:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Kid Twist
Arado Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 963
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 21
Post: #187
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-26-2019 12:29 AM)scorpion Wrote:  ...
It's not good to let fear dictate your investment decisions. Prudence, certainly. But if fear of something (collapse, in this case) is your overriding concern, you're probably not going to make the best choices. Because there is ALWAYS something to fear. And there is ALWAYS some guy out there preaching doom no matter what. If things are bad? Guess what, we're all doomed! And if things are going amazingly well? Does that mean we don't need to be afraid? No! In that case doom is just around the corner! You see how this works? There is always doom from these guys.

Most of the guys on this forum have at least a 25-30 year investment horizon before they need to start drawing down their investments. They need to be investing for the long term. And the reality is that most guys are not going to be buying up farmland or investing in third world banks. So when you scare them out of the markets with this doom talk you're basically just telling them to stick their money in the bank and let it get eaten away by inflation, which screws them over big time in the long term.

Anyway, don't take this as too much of a criticism, because I actually agree with a lot of what you say and am glad you are presenting your perspective. But I think guys will benefit from hearing a more orthodox approach to investing as well so they can decide for themselves what kind of investment exposure they want.

This was an interesting post, and you are not in the minority by looking at Schiff and Rickards as the boy who cried wolf.

However, I don't quite see a refutation of our macro thesis. If you say "don't give into fear," and "those guys have been preaching doom forever," then how do you think things will play out? We are not preaching fear, we are advocating you to take an objective level headed look at Central Bank likely actions in the near future and various macro indicators, and allocating based on that.

Given the high debt loads and low interest rate environment, do you see any alternative to governments flooding their countries with printed fiat and destroying the currency? And shouldn't one prepare for that possibility? Do you think that equities, at a record market cap % of the economy due to stock buybacks inflating EPS, as well as various recession indicators flashing red, are really the best bet right now?

The problem is that Peter Schiff has been spot on in his predictions of Fed moves over the last year while everyone was calling him a crank. Corporate overlords never allow him on their shows so we rarely get to see him debate with the schills at MSNBC.

The elites don't care about helping average people protect their wealth.
10-27-2019 07:58 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Arado's post:
Tail Gunner
scorpion Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,590
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 260
Post: #188
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I was reading those guys back in 2008-2009 during the financial crisis and the immediate aftermath. Their thesis was that all the QE/money printing from the Fed was going to cause massive inflation and drive the price of gold through the roof, and that the stock market would continue to plummet. That didn't happen. Instead what happened was that all the QE money reinflated the stock market and the price of gold stagnated for most of the decade. The actions of the Fed and the U.S. Government during the financial crisis should make it painfully obvious that the powers that be will do everything in their power to prevent the stock market and the banking system itself from collapsing, for the simply fact that a huge portion of the wealth of the elite is comprised of stock ownership, and that the banking system underlies the economy as a whole. So both will be protected at all costs. They're not going to sit and watch their own house burn down. It's just naked self-interest on their part. The elites aren't propping up the stock market because they care about average Joe's 401k, they're propping it up because they care about their multi-billion dollar portfolios.

I think all the fears about runaway inflation and a banking collapse are overblown. We have already experienced massive inflation over the past hundred years. It really doesn't seem to matter. Money itself is basically a social fiction that we all agree on. These are just pieces of paper and numbers on a screen. The only thing that matters is the confidence that people have in the monetary system. If people believe that their savings are secure and that their money is going to be accepted in exchange for goods and services, the economy will continue to function. We are going to continue to have a high degree of inflation as more money is pumped into the system. If you are investing in assets that appreciate along with inflation like stocks and real estate you will come out all right. Your grandfather could go see a movie for a nickel, but it costs you $12. Does it really matter? It's arbitrary. Your grandson might pay $200 for a movie ticket. The only thing that matters is keeping pace with inflation in such a monetary environment, which you cannot do if you are hoarding cash anticipating a collapse. That's my point.

Most guys here have decades to go before they retire. The markets will be up and down and sideways during that time. But if guys simply stay the course and continue to invest regularly they will come out fine when they really need the money in 25-30 years. But if you sit around constantly waiting for a collapse that never comes, you will have completely screwed yourself. The only collapse you will experience will be personal, not systemic.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
10-27-2019 11:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like scorpion's post:
DamienCasanova, kamoz
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #189
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-27-2019 11:35 AM)scorpion Wrote:  Money itself is basically a social fiction that we all agree on. These are just pieces of paper and numbers on a screen. The only thing that matters is the confidence that people have in the monetary system. If people believe that their savings are secure and that their money is going to be accepted in exchange for goods and services, the economy will continue to function.

The problem that the loss of confidence is like bankruptcy. It happens slowly and then, suddenly, all at once. The character Mike Campbell in the 1926 novel “The Sun Also Rises,” by Ernest Hemingway, was asked about his money troubles and responded with a vivid description embracing self-contradiction:

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

In his most recent book, James Rickards explains this phenomenon as it relates to fiat currencies, where there is an "invisible confidence boundary" where people suddenly lose confidence in a "hypersynchronous phase transition." All it takes is that last straw on the camel's back, which almost happened in 2008.

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537...pid2032017
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2019 12:13 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-27-2019 12:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
scorpion Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,590
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 260
Post: #190
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
If people suddenly lose confidence in the USD, what are they suddenly going to gain confidence in to replace it? Gold? Bitcoin? Yuan? People demand a medium of exchange and a storage of value. There will be something that functions as currency as long as anything approaching civilization remains. Further, even if the USD did undergo some sort of collapse, who would be the biggest losers? The people sitting on the sidelines hoarding cash in anticipation of a collapse. The people who owned assets would come out fine in the end because those assets would simply be revalued under whatever new currency emerged out the other side.

This is my main belief: despite its problems, the U.S. economy is still the strongest horse to bet on. I think guys should be investing long-term primarily in stock index funds and multi-family investment properties. I think throwing in a modest 5-10% gold allocation would be prudent, and maybe some of the more adventurous guys should consider a 10% allocation in things like crypto or direct overseas investments. But if your entire investment outlook is literally based on planning for an epic economic collapse, I don't think that's prudent or realistic. Most guys are not going to go to the trouble of buying farmland or holding Cambodian bank deposits. But they can easily sock away money every month in tax-advantaged retirement accounts without doing anything. If they continue to do that for the next few decades they will be glad they did.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
10-27-2019 12:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like scorpion's post:
bucky, DamienCasanova, RoastBeefCurtains4Me
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #191
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-27-2019 12:29 PM)scorpion Wrote:  If people suddenly lose confidence in the USD, what are they suddenly going to gain confidence in to replace it? Gold? Bitcoin? Yuan? People demand a medium of exchange and a storage of value.

SDR's, gold-backed SDRs, or some other form of basket of currencies. That is the vast consensus of most financial experts. The only question is whether the U.S. will voluntarily allow the natural evolution of such a process -- or be forced to do so after a serious financial calamity.


(10-27-2019 12:29 PM)scorpion Wrote:  This is my main belief: despite its problems, the U.S. economy is still the strongest horse to bet on.

This is the second time that you raised this point and the second time that I have stated that this is utterly irrelevant. As I stated in my previous post:

Quote:It is not the U.S. economy, but the U.S. banking and financial system that is the problem. It was the U.S. banking and financial system that almost destroyed the the global financial system in 2008. I repeat: It was the U.S. banking and financial system that almost collapsed, not Cambodia or Argentina or Moldova. There are several great documentaries on how close the world came to the brink of complete financial collapse in 2008.

You can have the strongest economy in the world -- and this is utterly meaningless if your central bank artificially suppresses interest rates leading to massive asset bubbles that destroys your banking system, because the banking system is based on fractional reserve banking and derivatives. Your statement that the U.S. economy is still the strongest economy in the world (which is correct) is a complete non sequitur to our discussion, which is the inherent instability of a broken banking system. In fact, it was the U.S.banking system that almost destroyed the world's financial system in 2008, not some third-world banking system. As a poor analogy, it is like saying that Bill Gates is the healthiest man in the world because he has the most money, when it is proven that he has cancer.


(10-27-2019 12:29 PM)scorpion Wrote:  But if your entire investment outlook is literally based on planning for an epic economic collapse, I don't think that's prudent or realistic.

I have never said that. I have said that you can protect yourself by opting out of a broken banking and financial system while still garnering similar annual yields with less volatility and risk. Regardless of whether another financial panic occurs, you are still better off than staying in the markets -- and you are in no worse of a position. That is a no-lose scenario.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2019 05:51 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-27-2019 05:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
SlickyBoy
kamoz Offline
Woodpecker
**
Gold Member

Posts: 373
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 7
Post: #192
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
The US still has the most powerful military in the world. The fundamental reason that the dollar is the world's reserve currency - the petrodollar - is a direct result of this. Monopoly money doesn't matter when you can scrub anyone off the face of the Earth and take what resources you want. When China toasts 4 or 5 of our carrier battle groups with maneuverable hypersonic missiles, then maybe I'll worry.
10-28-2019 01:47 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,785
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #193
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(10-28-2019 01:47 AM)kamoz Wrote:  The US still has the most powerful military in the world. The fundamental reason that the dollar is the world's reserve currency - the petrodollar - is a direct result of this. Monopoly money doesn't matter when you can scrub anyone off the face of the Earth and take what resources you want. When China toasts 4 or 5 of our carrier battle groups with maneuverable hypersonic missiles, then maybe I'll worry.

With all due respect, it is this exactly type of ignorance that will force the U.S. to lose the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. It is not the threat of weapons, but the threat of the loss of access to the SWIFT system (and economic sanctions) that drives China, Russia, and other nations to stockpile gold, dump dollar reserves, and create their own trade payment systems -- all of which are underway. In fact, the U.S. dodged a huge bullet when Brazil recently dumped a long line of socialist presidents for a pro-U.S. capitalist president.

Our allies are slowly joining these nascent trade systems, so that the initial groundwork is already laid. While this process might take decades, if another worldwide financial panic is caused by the U.S. banking system it could also happen tomorrow. If you do not know about any of these developments, then you really do not know what is going on in the world. These are absolutely huge developments.

Quote:Two weeks ago, Russia and China took a major step away from the use of the American dollar in agreeing to develop bilateral trade using the Russian rouble and the Chinese yuan.

“Russia and China intend to develop the practice of settlements in national currencies,” said President Vladimir Putin after meeting President Xi Jinping in St Petersburg. He added that both countries had signed agreements to expand the use of their currencies in bilateral financial operations.

This move is long awaited and makes perfect sense, given the growing economic ties between Moscow and Beijing, and attempts by the United States to exploit the special position of its currency to force other countries to do its bidding. China-Russia bilateral trade reached US$24.2 billion in the first quarter of 2019, according to Chinese customs, up almost 30 per cent over the corresponding period last year. China has become Russia’s largest trade partner with about 14 per cent of payments in yuan and 7-8 per cent in rouble.

There are plans to reach US$200 billion in mutual trade by 2020, sign a local currencies settlement agreement later this year and extend the use of the national credit-card systems Union Pay and Mir in both countries.

Members of the Eurasian Economic Union and other emerging economies have also declared their readiness to avoid using the US dollar and to increase settlements in local currencies. In May last year, China and the Eurasian Economic Union signed a trade and economic agreement as a base to reduce dollar dominance in trade and as an important milestone in realising the linking of the union to the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s massive infrastructure project.

China is the world’s largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil. Last year, it launched a yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Stock Exchange – the so-called petroyuan – amid a growing willingness from Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to settle oil payments in yuan and other non-dollar currencies. Despite the risk of currency fluctuations and the concerns of traders, the petroyuan is a necessary step in creating a potential rival to dollar-denominated benchmark oil prices – West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude – and reducing the dollar dominance in the commodities trade.

Given the ongoing trade war with the US, its tariffs on Chinese goods, and Western sanctions on Russia, Iran and other Chinese trade partners, it is to China’s benefit to promote de-dollarisation and push the internationalisation of the yuan to reduce the negative effects of possible further actions from Washington.

US trade sanctions have also encouraged alternatives to the dollar-denominated payment system SWIFT, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. European leaders have signed an agreement to develop an alternative to SWIFT, Iran has joined China’s CIPS, or Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, and Russia is promoting its System for Transfer of Financial Messages.

There are also international institutions holding yuan reserves that receive heavy financial backing from China, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, BRICS fund and Russia-China Investment Bank. Meanwhile, China’s outward direct investments in its belt and road projects alone reached US$15.6 billion last year.
In new economic sectors such as fintech, there are also many opportunities to cooperate using electronic payments delinked from the US dollar. This is especially relevant given the uncertainties surrounding Chinese tech companies in the US and Europe.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/art...h-dethrone
10-28-2019 09:45 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
SlickyBoy
SlickyBoy Offline
Ostrich
****

Posts: 2,200
Joined: Nov 2014
Reputation: 20
Post: #194
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
The Romans were the most powerful empire of their era, but as time went on they diluted the value of their currency, used mercenaries for soldiers, had slaves serving the elites and generally succumbed to moral subversion. Christianity arrived far too late to make a difference. Sounds familiar...

Scorpion - curious as to your age bracket. I'm guessing 40-45 based on your stated beliefs about the American economy, past and future.

Twitter: @_slickyboy
Occasional contributor at Return of Kings (while it lasted)
11-03-2019 10:16 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? thegmanifesto 420 167,467 10-30-2019 06:49 PM
Last Post: Tail Gunner
  Gold backed crypto Blake2 4 768 09-07-2019 10:49 AM
Last Post: [email protected]
  Silver/Gold and other Precious Metal "stacking" Polniy_Sostav 9 2,212 07-19-2019 07:51 PM
Last Post: zoom

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication