I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Author Message
qwertyuiop Online
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 257
Joined: Nov 2016
Reputation: 0
Post: #51
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
You guys are crazy. You can take your 401k and turn it to cash with a penalty...then go withdraw it from the atm same day (in my case at least).

If you are also so worried, switch jobs and roll your 401k over to an IRA...now you have control of it.

Pensions are differnet, but 401ks is your personal bank account that has tax advantages.
Yesterday 07:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes qwertyuiop's post:
Graft
SlickyBoy Offline
True Player
*****

Posts: 2,122
Joined: Nov 2014
Reputation: 20
Post: #52
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-10-2019 11:29 PM)bucky Wrote:  I've been that guy too. Always expecting a collapse somewhere in the near future that never materializes. Used it as an excuse to not contribute to my 401k when I was in my 20s...I hate to think about what I'd have saved now if I hadn't been so dumb.

To clarify, I don't think I'll need to sell gold or stop the 401k with the new car, but who knows. I was mostly interested to see what the forum members think, and who really believes a collapse is coming in the next few decades. Vox Day is guaranteeing one in the 2030s and has actually advised young people not contribute to their 401ks. Then again, he also predicted the Republicans would pick up seats in the house in 2018.

Read James Rickard's latest book, Aftermath, and you may feel a bit better about not putting it into your 401k. No he's not another doomsday hack, he's a financial player taken seriously enough to be brought onto a CIA committee to study market intelligence. The debt to GDP ratio of the US is insane right now - worse than under Bush, worse than Obama (who doubled what Bush already blew up), and there's no amount of quantitative easing that can make it go away.

Twitter: @_slickyboy
Occasional contributor at Return of Kings (while it lasted)
Yesterday 07:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes SlickyBoy's post:
bucky
Leonard D Neubache Offline
Innovative Casanova
*******
Gold Member

Posts: 11,375
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 204
Post: #53
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 01:46 PM)bucky Wrote:  Solid post, but is it true that precious metals are worthless in Venezuela? I'd have thought it would be quite the opposite.

You're still thinking "functional trade market".

If you've been reduced to trading in metals then it's a fair bet it's all black market at that point. People in that situation want a direct trade between something they have and something they NEED. Trading in silver or gold means that not only does everyone have to learn to value metals correctly but they have to engage in two risky trades to get what they want rather than one.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
Yesterday 11:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
bucky Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 412
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #54
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 11:02 PM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:46 PM)bucky Wrote:  Solid post, but is it true that precious metals are worthless in Venezuela? I'd have thought it would be quite the opposite.

You're still thinking "functional trade market".

If you've been reduced to trading in metals then it's a fair bet it's all black market at that point. People in that situation want a direct trade between something they have and something they NEED. Trading in silver or gold means that not only does everyone have to learn to value metals correctly but they have to engage in two risky trades to get what they want rather than one.

But they have Internet in Venezuela. Well, when the power is up. Wouldn't they just check the value of the precious metal in question in USD and trade based on that? I assume their black market runs on USD, not local currency.

My wife's home country is only a few steps ahead of Venezuela in danger, chaos, and general shittiness and gold is definitely valuable there, to the point that you can't wear anything gold in color in public because it's too dangerous. I get that in a total collapse of global civilization, something like a return to the stone age, precious metals wouldn't be worth much because you can't eat them or shoot anyone with them, but Venezuela is still far from that. I'd image that gold and silver were worth something even in warlord-ruled Somalia.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
Today 01:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Leonard D Neubache Offline
Innovative Casanova
*******
Gold Member

Posts: 11,375
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 204
Post: #55
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Okay, you can value gold per ounce but how about the guy you're trading with? Is the gold weighed, rated and stamped appropriately? Mint coins, perhaps?

Not that you'd be trading for anything but very high value items with gold. Silver is the metal of choice for common transactions. But using metals also marks you as a target for robbery since you've signaled that you have high value easily transportable assets to take.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
Today 04:51 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
bucky Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 412
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #56
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Today 04:51 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  Okay, you can value gold per ounce but how about the guy you're trading with? Is the gold weighed, rated and stamped appropriately? Mint coins, perhaps?

Not that you'd be trading for anything but very high value items with gold. Silver is the metal of choice for common transactions. But using metals also marks you as a target for robbery since you've signaled that you have high value easily transportable assets to take.

I agree about silver. If I had precious metals (which I absolutely don't for anyone who might somehow figure out who I am in IRL and where I live) I'd have a bit of gold for large transactions, but way more silver for the small stuff.

You're also right about precious metals marking you for robbery. However, having USD or any kind of goods that are in demand also does that in a place like Venezuela. I once read a blog post by a Venezuelan were he discussed at length how to buy the right cell phone there. Has to be not so new and fancy that it will get you robbed, but also not so old and busted that it's an obvious decoy for your nice cell phone and will also get you robbed. Needs to be somewhere in between, and that sweet spot changes frequently.

Anyway, my original point was that I highly doubt that gold and silver are worthless in Venezuela or a hypothetical future "north Venezuela" situation in the US like they would be in a stone age society or on a desert island.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
Today 05:46 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Leonard D Neubache Offline
Innovative Casanova
*******
Gold Member

Posts: 11,375
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 204
Post: #57
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Not worthless, no. That's a bad term. "A more troublesome form of currency" probably makes more sense.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
Today 07:22 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Leonard D Neubache's post:
bucky
bucky Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 412
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #58
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Today 07:22 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  Not worthless, no. That's a bad term. "A more troublesome form of currency" probably makes more sense.

That I agree with. Although like I said, in a place like Venezuela anything of value is troublesome. A family friend of ours in my wife's country has a G-shock watch that is worth about $100 brand new. A guy tried to steal it from him by physically manhandling him. It just so happened that a couple of friends of the guy with the watch were nearby, so they beat the would-be robber to within an inch of his life. Turned out that the guy they beat up had gang connections, so all three have had to flee the country to avoid being murdered. All of this over a cheap watch that you could probably wear in the worst parts of the US or Australia without anyone noticing or caring.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
Today 08:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like bucky's post:
Leonard D Neubache, Swordfish1010
scorpion Online
True Player
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,544
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 257
Post: #59
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
There are certainly plenty of reasons to be concerned about the economy, but planning for the outright collapse of society is not a good investment strategy. First of all, living with that kind of doom mindset is incredibly toxic and is inevitably going to negatively affect your day to day mood and general happiness. Secondly, a societal collapse would be so catastrophic that you would very likely be screwed no matter how well you prepared. About the best you could do is live in a rural area, form a strong local network of like-minded friends and neighbors, have a modest supply of food, guns and ammo and maybe stockpile a bit of gold and silver. Anything beyond that is pure LARPing.

As for investments in particular, it's important to maintain a long-term outlook. Remember that inflation has been a constant for the past 100 years. Keep that in mind when people start talking about unsustainable debt crashing the economy. That horn has been blowing for decades but it hasn't mattered. The debt will be inflated away. You hear old-timers talk about when they used to buy a bottle of Coke for a nickel and your marvel at how cheap things were back then. When your grandchildren pay $25 for a can of coke they'll marvel at how you used to pay $1. The can of coke is the same, whether you pay 5c, $1 or $25. In other words, you remain the same height whether you are measured in inches, feet, centimeters or soup cans. The underlying economy can still be strong despite monetary inflation. The past several decades have proven that.

The takeaway is that if you refrain from investing in a highly inflationary environment you won't keep up and will lose out. That's the reality we're in now. Yes, there is always a risk with investing - but there's also a risk to NOT investing. Storing all your money in gold under your mattress is not a risk-free strategy by any means. And in fact, there is no risk-free strategy. You stand a risk of losing everything no matter what you do. It's best to come to terms with that, and invest primarily in non-monetary assets such as your personal skillset, your health, your friends and family, and a strong faith in God that will see you through regardless of what setbacks lie ahead. And then in the meanwhile, be prudent with your investing and hope for the best over the long-term with a diversified pool of investments. That's all you can do.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
Today 11:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like scorpion's post:
Kangaroo, bucky
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 441
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 11
Post: #60
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 11:34 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  That is a theory that I agree with. My opinion, on a sliding scale of collapse will be:

1. Governments will seize or tax 401k type of benefits. Why? because they are owned by the middle class. The current trend is to pound on the middle class, not the very rich or the very poor
2. Social security will not be outright cancelled, it will have the retirement age bumped up considerably or somewhat neutered. Remember, if you take social security you are still in the gov't pocket, which they like. Social security could even be a UBI/yang bucks type of vehicle. However, the curve of contributions from poor to middle class will likely be steepened
3. Government pensions...they will seize/tax private IRA's and 401ks before they ever reduce their own.
4. If the government pensions go down, or the USD collapses etc. we will be in a venezuela combined with risk of foreign invasion type situation. Currency will be food, fuel, tools, medicine, guns.

If you are a believer in a rapid collapse type of scenario, then you should be investing in full prepper, if you are a believer in a slower collapse you should be avoiding 'middle class' type of investments like 401k's, college funds, mortgages. Those will be robbed by the socialists once they gain soft control and try to shore up welfare, social security and government pensions. Then, once welfare, social security and government pensions fail you are in full Venezuela and gold isn't going to help.

Especially in the USA, we are extremely unlikely to face a "rapid collapse" any time for the next decade.

However, a gradual worsening of everything is extremely likely, including government figuring out new and innovative ways to fleece the middle and upper middle class. Especially state and local governments, who cannot just print money like the federal government.

As for the 401k issue, they could either outright "merge" private 401k money with public pensions, or simply add a ridiculous surtax to any withdrawals that get diverted into state and local pension coffers. Governments can be extremely devious about using indirect, innocuous seeming tactics to separate people from their money. Near where I live, EZ PASS is mandatory, and during rush hour commutes it costs $20(!!) to drive on a 10 mile segment of road, just one way!
In other countries like Cyprus, they have even frozen bank deposits, and introduced super low weekly withdrawal limits, in order to fund a "bail in" of the bank.

A very safe place is probably a plain old stock brokerage account. Your wealth is protected from inflation, it's one of the very last things even a desperate government would come for, and it can be converted into hard cash quickly. The politically powerful super rich will also fight tooth and nail to ensure their own assets cannot be stripped in that manner
Today 11:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
bucky Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 412
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 3
Post: #61
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Today 11:55 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  Governments can be extremely devious about using indirect, innocuous seeming tactics to separate people from their money. Near where I live, EZ PASS is mandatory, and during rush hour commutes it costs $20(!!) to drive on a 10 mile segment of road, just one way!
In other countries like Cyprus, they have even frozen bank deposits, and introduced super low weekly withdrawal limits, in order to fund a "bail in" of the bank.

<snipped>

The politically powerful super rich will also fight tooth and nail to ensure their own assets cannot be stripped in that manner

A few years ago in my state a referendum passed forbidding state and local governments from increasing taxes and introducing new taxes without voter approval through further referenda. Sounded great until we realized that now they just increase existing "fees" while also calling new taxes "fees" instead of "taxes."

Aye, about the politically powerful and super rich.

Feminism in ten words: "Stop objectifying women! Can't you see I've hit the wall?" -Leonard D Neubache
Today 12:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes bucky's post:
jeffreyjerpp
Swordfish1010 Online
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 343
Joined: Oct 2018
Reputation: 4
Post: #62
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Today 11:23 AM)scorpion Wrote:  There are certainly plenty of reasons to be concerned about the economy, but planning for the outright collapse of society is not a good investment strategy. First of all, living with that kind of doom mindset is incredibly toxic and is inevitably going to negatively affect your day to day mood and general happiness. Secondly, a societal collapse would be so catastrophic that you would very likely be screwed no matter how well you prepared. About the best you could do is live in a rural area, form a strong local network of like-minded friends and neighbors, have a modest supply of food, guns and ammo and maybe stockpile a bit of gold and silver. Anything beyond that is pure LARPing.

As for investments in particular, it's important to maintain a long-term outlook. Remember that inflation has been a constant for the past 100 years. Keep that in mind when people start talking about unsustainable debt crashing the economy. That horn has been blowing for decades but it hasn't mattered. The debt will be inflated away. You hear old-timers talk about when they used to buy a bottle of Coke for a nickel and your marvel at how cheap things were back then. When your grandchildren pay $25 for a can of coke they'll marvel at how you used to pay $1. The can of coke is the same, whether you pay 5c, $1 or $25. In other words, you remain the same height whether you are measured in inches, feet, centimeters or soup cans. The underlying economy can still be strong despite monetary inflation. The past several decades have proven that.

The takeaway is that if you refrain from investing in a highly inflationary environment you won't keep up and will lose out. That's the reality we're in now. Yes, there is always a risk with investing - but there's also a risk to NOT investing. Storing all your money in gold under your mattress is not a risk-free strategy by any means. And in fact, there is no risk-free strategy. You stand a risk of losing everything no matter what you do. It's best to come to terms with that, and invest primarily in non-monetary assets such as your personal skillset, your health, your friends and family, and a strong faith in God that will see you through regardless of what setbacks lie ahead. And then in the meanwhile, be prudent with your investing and hope for the best over the long-term with a diversified pool of investments. That's all you can do.

Believe it or not, this advice is pretty mainstream norm. Some people choose to be more proactive.
(This post was last modified: Today 12:59 PM by Swordfish1010.)
Today 12:59 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
scorpion Online
True Player
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,544
Joined: Sep 2012
Reputation: 257
Post: #63
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Today 12:59 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Believe it or not, this advice is pretty mainstream norm. Some people choose to be more proactive.

Yeah, it is mainstream norm. You know why? Because it's proven and it works. Investing in ownership shares of major American/global corporations (stocks) is a time-tested strategy for generating steady returns over a multi-decade time horizon. "Choosing to be more proactive" is something you're obviously free to do. But the fact is that most people who attempt to do so come out worse off than if they had simply bought a stock index fund.

Also, you're completely out of your mind if you think that cryptocurrency has fewer risks than stocks. The government can drive crypto prices to zero far more easily than they can stocks, and are much more likely to do so, especially if crypto threatens the hegemony of the dollar or a future world reserve currency. What is the market price of Bitcoin if the government criminalizes it and bans all conversion to USD? Conversely, people have been buying shares of corporations for centuries. The private purchase of public corporate shares is embedded into the structure of modern civilization. Further, the private ownership of stock is something that 99% of the uber-rich and wealthy movers and shakers participate in themselves. For the vast majority of them to advocate government seizure of stock is to pauperize themselves. Anyone talking about the government seizing privately owned stocks is talking crazy talk. It would fail catastrophically as a wealth-transfer mechanism, as stocks would crater immediately and collapse the value of the stolen portfolios, and would likely trigger armed revolt to boot. Increased taxes? Sure. But that applies to everything. Government takeover of privately owned stock accounts? Nope. Not gonna happen.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
Today 02:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like scorpion's post:
Monty_Brogan, Brodiaga
Post Reply 


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both? thegmanifesto 408 159,631 Today 07:41 AM
Last Post: Polniy_Sostav
  Gold backed crypto Blake2 4 639 09-07-2019 10:49 AM
Last Post: [email protected]
  Silver/Gold and other Precious Metal "stacking" Polniy_Sostav 9 2,054 07-19-2019 07:51 PM
Last Post: zoom

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: scorpion, 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication