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Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 02:11 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:50 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In addition, anyone intelligent will not keep the bulk of their PM's in their home country anyhow. Who in the world would keep PM's in European countries that continue to reduce the ability to use cash? Especially when you can simply drive to your vault in Switzerland and trade gold for cash there. So confiscation is irrelevant. The U.S. has not restricted cash -- and I would still not keep most of my PM's in the U.S. There are better options.

Those of us without drive-in Swiss vault access have to make other plans, I'm afraid.

You are the one who brought up Germany. Anyone in Europe has access to Swiss or Austrian vaults. And opening a precious metals account in a private vault is little different than opening a bank account -- and far more private.
Yesterday 03:52 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 03:59 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 03:58 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.
Yesterday 04:02 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 04:21 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 04:18 PM
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Swordfish1010 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 04:18 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
You can walk around blind, but my eyes are wide open.
Yesterday 04:23 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 04:23 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(Yesterday 04:18 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 04:02 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:58 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Gold has held its intrinsic value for all of human history; Bitcoin might not even exist in a few years.

Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is purely a speculation. There is a big difference. Can Bitcoin even exist without a power grid (I have no idea)?

Books have existed throughout human history, the internet has only existed for a few decades.

I get it, I sound like a broken record, but times have changed and the world is a lot different than it was 10 years ago. Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed gold in the last 10 years already. Look at the xbt to xau charts. Gold is a foolish investment for those that are living in the past and refuse to accept reality.

You are factually incorrect. Nothing has destroyed gold. It is a stable store of value just as it has always been. It strengthens as the dollar weakens -- and vice versa. So, I have no idea what you mean.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has proven that it is not a stable store of value and is incredibly volatile (which is why I lost interest in it). Bitcoin is purely a speculative play on something that has no intrinsic value.

At least know that category of asset with which you are dealing: investment; insurance; speculation; reliable store of value; currency, etc. Gold can be all of those things, depending on how you use or trade it. Bitcoin has thus far proven to be nothing more than a speculative asset. That may change in the future, but to say that Bitcoin has replaced -- much less, destroyed -- gold is absolutely insane. Tell that to the central banks.

Just to cite an example: If I already have wealth, then placing part of that wealth into gold is a great way to insure against all sorts of risk. I could also place all of my wealth into gold (not recommended for any one asset) and still retain great wealth regardless of where the price of gold went. If I placed all my wealth in Bitcoin, however, it is certainly possible that I could lose all my wealth -- which is what makes it a speculation.
You can walk around blind, but my eyes are wide open.

Thanks for the thoughtful discourse. tard
Yesterday 04:29 PM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Not true. Gold actually has secondary uses such as in jewelry making. Bitcoin BTC has zero secondary uses because right now it's not even a good currency due to high fees and slow transaction times. There are other cryptocurrencies that work better that might challenge gold in the distant future.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 05:11 PM by zoom.)
Yesterday 05:11 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 05:11 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:50 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I’m bearish on gold due to ease of confiscation but also since most of its value comes from the fact that it is used as money, not from its non-money uses like using for raw materials in manufacturing. Bitcoin is going to eat into golds value as this occurs as it is better money

Not true. Gold actually has secondary uses such as in jewelry making. Bitcoin BTC has zero secondary uses because right now it's not even a good currency due to high fees and slow transaction times. There are other cryptocurrencies that work better that might challenge gold in the distant future.

   

This is a chart from 2015. The buying by central banks is now far stronger.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 05:18 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 05:17 PM
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SlickyBoy Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 10:37 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 10:32 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  How close did we come just now?
Try this handy gauge:
http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

From the web site (explanation):

"The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018."

Laugh4

I still think they're more correct than not.
Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 stock market crash. He was off by a year, but still managed to get it right. Very right.



It wasn't a one time lucky break. His net worth today is about quadruple what Jeffery Epstein's was.

Oh yeah - he was just as "wrong" last year too.

Quote:Paul Tudor Jones, the hedge fund manager who called the October 1987 crash, gave a stark warning about the financial markets.

“We have the strongest economy in 40 years, at full employment. The mood is euphoric. But it is unsustainable and comes with costs such as bubbles in stocks and credit,” Jones said in an interview with Goldman Sachs sent to the bank’s clients in a note Wednesday. “With rates so low, you can’t trust asset prices today. And if you can’t tell by now, I would steer very clear of bonds. … Bonds are the most expensive they’ve ever been by virtually any metric. They’re overvalued and over-owned.”

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Yesterday 06:00 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

I'm not in bonds and won't be, but again, we've got a ways to go before the doom returns.

Get your passport ready!
Yesterday 07:56 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 06:26 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-17-2019 11:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  Market cap to GDP remains at a record high and central banks are pretty much out of ammo to stimulate the economy. You can't just bury your head in the sand and say whatever that you've done in the past is always going to work in the future.

I've been arguing with Kid Twist on several threads on how imminent the crash is and so far he's been right, but we both at least agree that the status quo is unsustainable eventually, and this time very well could be different and blindly investing in index funds may not save you anymore.

Yes, as much as we disagree on certain specialty topics and mostly timing, big picture we see eye to eye. Just to list those quickly, yes, negative rates are an absolute joke, CAPE (Shiller PE) is high but not an all time high like in the years approaching the dot com bubble, and the world is sluggish with growth and will languish. The USA is entering the same dilemma of fake (small, overstated due to spending) GDP and minimal "growth".

I actually think it can be pushed quite a bit further, and my current prediction is that it'll be mid decade. I said this 2 years ago, and it's looking better and better. The run up to the 2024 Dem Socialist election is the most obvious and will be the most glaring example of going from a business loving, market loving, economy loving president to a freebie shill for the "people."

But even I will be holding BTC and some commodities until then. I really don't think you have to worry about holding those even until another 6-9 months. I won't bother with indexes because I think their long term time is up AND since I do believe the market will keep running (for now) why not just own MSFT and crush the (whichever you want) index?

Get your popcorn ready. Then, look below.

I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

I don't think there will be a "crash" regardless, but yes, they will do it and they will love every minute of it. Retirees will do anything to keep status quo anywhere near what they believe is the "status quo". Just like they'll vote for all the "free shit" from the 2024 free-shit-idiot politician.

Get your passport ready!
Yesterday 07:59 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 08:11 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 08:09 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 07:59 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  
(09-18-2019 08:01 PM)Arado Wrote:  I think that in order to avoid a crash before the election, the Fed will have to cut rates to zero and maybe even restart QE. Do you think that there will be enough political support to do that absent a crash? Retirees will not be happy about being forced into going overweight on risky assets just to get some type of return.

I don't think there will be a "crash" regardless, but yes, they will do it and they will love every minute of it. Retirees will do anything to keep status quo anywhere near what they believe is the "status quo". Just like they'll vote for all the "free shit" from the 2024 free-shit-idiot politician.

I think this is where we disagree and this is a pretty important point which we've constantly gone in circles on in other threads but I never got a direct answer from you. Kid Twist, you are vastly underestimating the dependence of this market on Fed actions. If you go back to December last year, the market was in free fall until Powell made a complete u-turn and said QT was going to end soon and he stopped raising interest rates.

As of late last year it was only extremists like Peter Schiff that said that the Fed was going to stop raising interest rates. Most of the mainstream media said then that the Fed was going to raise rates once more in 2019. Come 2019, the Fed has now lowered rates twice and will do so again before the end of the year and Powell has even hinted that QE is going to resume. And even with that giant u-turn the markets have been treading water essentially and are barely up from January 2018.

Without the 'Fed put', this thing would have crashed a long time ago. The only question now is whether Fed actions (including even negative interest rates) are enough to hold off the long due slowdown (setting us up for an even worse crash in a few years when we can't get back above 0% interest rates), or is it too little too late and the crash is still coming even with extreme Fed policy?
Yesterday 08:15 PM
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eradicator Offline
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Post: #114
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
I'd either sell the car and stop making payments and get a cheaper car, or work more hours rather than sell investments like gold or stocks.

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Yesterday 08:49 PM
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Post: #115
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 08:09 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 07:56 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Jones and Schiff, give them their due for their previous calls.

Timing is always the issue. Watch the film "The Big Short." Poor timing almost destroyed Michael Burry and his associates. They barely hung on. Then they profited handsomely. But what if they had been forced out of the market just 3-6 months shy of the financial crisis? They would have crashed and burned spectacularly, even though they were right about market conditions.

The simple fact is that it is better to be out of the market a year or two early than to be out of the market even a few weeks too late. If you are smart, you will not miss any rewards. There are plenty of places to invest that produce higher yields with lower risks than the debt and equity markets. The big boys have no choice, because there is too much money (many billions of dollars) chasing too little yield (which is why they invest in bonds with negative yields). But small investors have many options. It just takes some effort and creativity.

Could you expound upon this statement in bold a little more? I'm always looking for places to put my money other than the debt and equity markets for some decent yields but it seems like a tough find for me.
Yesterday 11:49 PM
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bucky Offline
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Post: #116
RE: Stop 401k contributions or sell off gold (or "is the collapse coming?")
(Yesterday 08:49 PM)eradicator Wrote:  I'd either sell the car and stop making payments and get a cheaper car, or work more hours rather than sell investments like gold or stocks.

The idea of working Saturdays actually just occurred to me the other day. No idea why I hadn't thought of that before. I'm like that sometimes. Hypothetically, of course. (The hypothetical car is hypothetically leased and a smaller, less expensive car isn't really an option, for reasons I won't get into).

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