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The coming economic crash thread
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SomeOneSomeWhere Offline
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Post: #1
The coming economic crash thread
There are now negative interest rates for EUR and JPY savings (-0.5% I think), stocks and assets are extremely overpriced, the first extremely overvalued bubble company WeWork faltered, it looks to me like a crash within the next two years is pretty much inevitable.

ITT you can post anything in relation to the coming crash.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 04:45 AM by SomeOneSomeWhere.)
11-22-2019 04:32 AM
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SomeOneSomeWhere Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread




U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested the Federal Reserve should bring interest rates below zero...but what does that even mean? Will you be paid for taking out a loan? We'll answer these questions and more.

---

Basically the grapplers want to force you to invest so they can grapple up cheap real assets once the inevitable crash happens...
11-22-2019 04:40 AM
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SomeOneSomeWhere Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
German Government Planning to Restrict Anonymous Purchases of Gold
to 2000 EUR

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/after-c...s-of-gold/

Cash transaction limits have also been proposed. (cash is still widely used outside of Weimerica)

In previous crashes gold was confiscated / banned as a transactional medium for years.
11-22-2019 05:07 AM
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KMK Offline
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Post: #4
RE: The coming economic crash thread
10 year sideways market incoming. Everyone's going to be too eager to buy dips so instead we get slow steady inflation combined with stagnant equity prices, until money is inflated enough that the price of equities makes sense.

Individual stocks have their ups and downs.
Insiders make well timed plays on these ups and downs using prescience.
Savers lose their ass.
People who try to play individual stocks without prescience lose their ass even harder.
Preppers sit on the sidelines and grumble on the internet about how none of the things they bought are useful for anything.

[Image: vwMin.gif]
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 09:34 AM by KMK.)
11-22-2019 08:48 AM
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SomeOneSomeWhere Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 08:48 AM)KMK Wrote:  10 year sideways market incoming. Everyone's going to be too eager to buy dips so instead we get slow steady inflation combined with stagnant equity prices, until money is inflated enough that the price of equities makes sense.

I think you forgot that the grapplers want to crush us. This will most likely lead to brown communism with white oppression in western countries.

You can't prep in Europe really aside from leaving for eastern Europe, which might not last forever either given how grappler run it is. When push comes to shove your white euro ass will get murdered and your gold won't buy your way out.
11-22-2019 09:41 AM
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Spectrumwalker Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
Wouldn't be surprised if the banksters got something planned to make Trump look bad before the election.

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11-22-2019 09:56 AM
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scorpion Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
Is this the crash that's been just around the corner for the past decade? Is it finally here?

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
11-22-2019 10:22 AM
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Cobra Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 09:56 AM)Spectrumwalker Wrote:  Wouldn't be surprised if the banksters got something planned to make Trump look bad before the election.

Yes, am I wrong to notice that the banking community and the Fed in general has been eerily quiet? I could be wrong but it sure seems that way.

I work in the finance space and debt financing is still a very active source of investments into new systems and equipment etc. Startups are also popping up quite often. For me to believe this will change in 2020 will be hard. Unless there is direct human intervention of course.

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11-22-2019 10:36 AM
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Easy_C Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
It's really, really bad.

It looks like the overnight repo market is the trigger point. It's so bad that Armstrong is even refusing to say much about it.

The federal reserve is afraid of triggering a run on the banks

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11-22-2019 10:36 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #10
RE: The coming economic crash thread
KMK is right, if you buy now you'll be a net loser in 10 years, because a large correction will happen in that time, and there is no path to real growth. Otherwise, central bank policies wouldn't have been what they were starting in Japan in the 1990s and in the Eurozone and USA later.

I think the downturn will be a very bad, but managed, downturn - economically. Not a "collapse." However, the smidgen of trust that anyone had in any of these "institutions" will finally evaporate, especially since people are so ill equipped to have savings, stable jobs, and easily attained credit will not be there any longer. Only a small number of people will be able to withstand the economic storm, since gov't juice will take a hit and also, so few people have real assets or will be prepared for it with cash or savings.

Social and cultural collapse (is that possible?) is the more accurate idea.

I don't see it happening before a Trump re-election, so my prediction for several years now remains exactly the same, which is in 2024 a swing back to something atypical, either a full blown socialist freebie peddler, or a strongman leader (a real martial law type, not Orange Man Bad claims). I do predict that the market and some other events turn sour for Mr. Trump in his second term. Some spin this as a reason to get rid of the Fed, which is an interesting idea as a scapegoat strategy, but I'm not sold on it.

Get your passport ready!
11-22-2019 10:40 AM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
https://needtoknow.news/2019/11/the-ny-f...two-years/

Quote:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has refused to inform GATA, a watchdog group, which investment houses have been getting the infamous “repo” loans, and informed them that they must wait two years to discover the identity of the loan recipients. The NY Fed advised GATA that it is exempt from the federal Freedom of Information Act but tries to comply with its spirit. The Federal Reserve has zero oversight by elected representatives, news organizations, and ordinary citizens.


@Kid Twist.

Think globally, not just domestic US. The Eurozone is in extremely bad shape where ECB is the only buyer of government debt, and the major European banks are in deep shit because they're exposed to both toxic 2007 assets and things like Turkish debt. Everyone I've known in the US at Deutsche Bank has been let go and a lot of the rest quit after they announced zero bonuses. It's basically a walking skeleton and when that goes it throws the Eurozone into a deep crisis, which may actually benefit US markets due to capital fleeing the Eurozone for safe harbor in the US.


That's important because a major deflationary cycle in the US would cause a massive collapse across the board due to a masisvely over-leveraged public sector, and unlike the federal government these state and local governments can't just monetize their debt.
11-22-2019 10:52 AM
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RoastBeefCurtains4Me Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
I expect inflation must eventually occur, when they have to print money to pay the interest on the government debts world wide, or else cut welfare payments and risk riots and rebellion. However, with the exception of isolated places where inflation goes hyper, I think it will be like it was in the US in the early 80's, when interest rates and inflation briefly approached 20%, then gradually eased back down.

Anyone owning income generating real estate with a lot of leverage will see their real estate values explode, and will be able to pay off their mortgages easily with inflated dollars coming from inflated rental income. Broadly speaking, people with real income generating assets always weather periods of high inflation the best, along with people who started the inflationary period with high debts and low interest rates on the debt. The people who do worst are people with money in bank accounts, and people living on their wages.

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11-22-2019 10:55 AM
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SomeOneSomeWhere Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 10:55 AM)RoastBeefCurtains4Me Wrote:  Anyone owning income generating real estate with a lot of leverage will see their real estate values explode, and will be able to pay off their mortgages easily with inflated dollars coming from inflated rental income. Broadly speaking, people with real income generating assets always weather periods of high inflation the best, along with people who started the inflationary period with high debts and low interest rates on the debt. The people who do worst are people with money in bank accounts, and people living on their wages.

I watched a video on the previous German financial crisis recently (WW1, Weimar, WW2) and apparently property owners were heavily taxed for quite some time because of this. If anyone makes easy money big gov is quick to step in to take it.
11-22-2019 11:06 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
I'm looking for something in a zero income tax state, so your suggestion is real estate, then, huh RoastBeef? The concurrent problem may be consolidation of housing and people moving back in with one another, real cost saving stuff that seems very likely.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 11:09 AM by Kid Twist.)
11-22-2019 11:07 AM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 08:48 AM)KMK Wrote:  10 year sideways market incoming. Everyone's going to be too eager to buy dips so instead we get slow steady inflation combined with stagnant equity prices, until money is inflated enough that the price of equities makes sense.

Individual stocks have their ups and downs.
Insiders make well timed plays on these ups and downs using prescience.
Savers lose their ass.
People who try to play individual stocks without prescience lose their ass even harder.
Preppers sit on the sidelines and grumble on the internet about how none of the things they bought are useful for anything.

[Image: vwMin.gif]

idk what any of these words means but sounds legit
11-22-2019 11:26 AM
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Days of Broken Arrows Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
It's timely to see this thread today.

I just heard on the morning news that the top hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, bet $1.5 billion that the U.S. stock market will drop in the next four months (link).

Bridgewater is run by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who is considered something of an economic guru. Dalio also said a few days ago the global economy is in trouble.

I'm used to hearing tales of doom from the usual negative voices (Peter Schiff, Nomi Prins), but as far as I know, Dalio isn't usually someone who spins tales of doom on a regular basis.

For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 11:28 AM by Days of Broken Arrows.)
11-22-2019 11:27 AM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 11:27 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  It's timely to see this thread today.

I just heard on the morning news that the top hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, bet $1.5 billion that the U.S. stock market will drop in the next four months (link).

Bridgewater is run by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who is considered something of an economic guru. Dalio also said a few days ago the global economy is in trouble.

I'm used to hearing tales of doom from the usual negative voices (Peter Schiff, Nomi Prins), but as far as I know, Dalio isn't usually someone who spins tales of doom on a regular basis.

For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.

So what do we do? Take all our money out of mutual funds and invest in a property or storage or something? Confused
11-22-2019 11:31 AM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 11:31 AM)Trumps Intern Wrote:  
(11-22-2019 11:27 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  It's timely to see this thread today.

I just heard on the morning news that the top hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, bet $1.5 billion that the U.S. stock market will drop in the next four months (link).

Bridgewater is run by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who is considered something of an economic guru. Dalio also said a few days ago the global economy is in trouble.

I'm used to hearing tales of doom from the usual negative voices (Peter Schiff, Nomi Prins), but as far as I know, Dalio isn't usually someone who spins tales of doom on a regular basis.

For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.

So what do we do? Take all our money out of mutual funds and invest in a property or storage or something? Confused

You do what I should have done in 2008-09 and in early 2016 and 2019 when the market dropped drastically. You wait until your favorite mutual funds or closed end funds bottom out, then buy them up.

However, I'd be very careful about buying stocks in individual companies. Energy and retail businesses can and do go bankrupt. And sometimes it's not entirely their fault -- it's that the sector they're in takes a nosedive and they become the victim. I've been burned badly in two cases like this.

I found it's better to buy a slice of the market through high-yield CEFs and mutual funds, because if a company goes bankrupt, that's one piece of their pie, not the whole thing.
11-22-2019 11:37 AM
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scorpion Offline
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
Doom has been predicted forever. There's always something to be afraid about. Your parents and grandparents lived most of the second half of the twentieth century under the constant threat of nuclear war breaking out at any moment and incinerating everything they loved in the blink of an eye. But they still lived their lives and planned for the future despite those worries. Economies rise and fall. Currencies fail. These things certainly happen. But life goes on. And if you live with the constant worry of doom just around the corner not only will you probably make poor long-term planning decisions, you will quite likely damage your health by stressing out too much.

First invest in your physical health and mental/emotional/spiritual well-being. These are your foremost assets, without which you are powerless to enjoy anything else in life. Then invest in your family and close friend relationships. They will help you weather life's storms. Then develop valuable and useful skills that will allow you to make money in the marketplace, whether working for yourself or for someone else. Then invest your money prudently in time-tested assets like stock index funds, residential real estate and gold. And after that?

STOP WORRYING ABOUT IMPENDING DOOM.

Live your life, be thankful to God for the blessings and the time you have. Don't get too attached to anything and be prepared to lose everything at any time. This life came with no guarantees attached except one: that it will ultimately end and everything you have will be wiped away in death. So all you can do is live the best you can while you're able. Don't stress yourself out about trying to survive impending doom. It is wise to be prudent and cautious, but is fruitless to live constantly in fear of some impending calamity, which may or may not ever come, and which you are powerless to prevent either way.

"For I reckon that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” - Romans 8:18
11-22-2019 11:47 AM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 11:07 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I'm looking for something in a zero income tax state, so your suggestion is real estate, then, huh RoastBeef? The concurrent problem may be consolidation of housing and people moving back in with one another, real cost saving stuff that seems very likely.

It is true that housing prices rise when interest rates are low, and therefore would likely fall when interest rates are high. Also, as you say, if most people are broke, they won't have money to pay rent, and that will drive the market lower as well. There are certainly no guarantees.

However, it is definitely true that asset owners have done the best in previous inflationary periods, and cash holders have done the worse. Of course, this also assumes that high inflation will occur, which is not certain. I am making an assumption that the high levels of government debt will eventually lead to money printing and inflation.

Besides putting your money into income generating assets, I would also look to have a career in a field that will remain in demand no matter what, and better yet, find one of those market niches that continues to grow in spite of the recession, like refrigeration and air conditioning did during the Great Depression in the 1930's.

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11-22-2019 12:24 PM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 11:27 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.

Good, but please tell me you don't listen to him about social or governmental/structural things. His constant stammering and "solutions" make me shiver, he is constantly guilt ridden and has flight of ideas, it makes me think someone like LeBron James is trying to talk outside of his realm of expertise, which is just foolishness. Anyone who can't figure out what the real differences are between Ray Dalio, son of Jazz musician in the 1950s, and now, is either an idiot, or a coward for not really talking about them.
11-22-2019 12:36 PM
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RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 11:27 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  It's timely to see this thread today.

I just heard on the morning news that the top hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, bet $1.5 billion that the U.S. stock market will drop in the next four months (link).

Bridgewater is run by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who is considered something of an economic guru. Dalio also said a few days ago the global economy is in trouble.

I'm used to hearing tales of doom from the usual negative voices (Peter Schiff, Nomi Prins), but as far as I know, Dalio isn't usually someone who spins tales of doom on a regular basis.

For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.


Update: Ray Dalio just got on Twitter and denied he ever said this to the Wall Street Journal. He says he explained to the writer, Juliet Chung, that to "convey us having a bearish view would be misleading" and said they went for a sensationalist headline. So ignore my above post.

Here is a link to a Yahoo Finance story on this.
11-22-2019 01:24 PM
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Post: #23
RE: The coming economic crash thread




I found this speech by Peter Zeihan (geopolitical think-tank) interesting in that he discusses the general trends of the global order and the assembly and disassembly of all things america (necessity to participate in global affairs). Highly recommended and presented here for your edification.

He discusses 1) world demographics (and their changes), 2) economics (trade wars) 3) general trend to nationalism (economic perspective).

Keep in mind that he represents the in-group (establishment) mindset of the political class. This is evident due to the the absence of discussion of societal fatigue, cultural normatives, and the development of commons. Everything he discussed considers information and trends that will be used for policy making by the political class in DC.

I'd estimate that the disparity in this presentation and that of the main-street american varies in that most people care less about the stock market and more about providing a safe neighborhood for their children. He doesn't discuss the level of unity among the tribes residing in america (precursor to balkanization). He does not discuss loyalty and temperament of the residing population groups in america. One cannot have a meaningful discussion about the future developments of a nation if factors outside of the gdp (identity, cultural, loyalties, temperament, fatigue, compliance, gender relations, political correctness) are not considered. The disparity between the proletariat (main-street) and upper echelon parasitic elite (wall-street) is demonstrated in the omission of such topics.

Categories like political correctness, compliance, loyalty, and temperament are not easily presented in a bar graph and that means their consideration will be much more difficult going forward. Things like loyalty are measured in deeds and not necessarily quantifiable.

I am of a mindset that a crash will inevitably happen and also that it MUST happen. The global ambitions of the upper class in power has been attained and sustained at the expense of the middle class (genetically, culturally, economically, etc). Societal ir-reciprocity enforced by violence, both economical and physical. The reason a crash MUST happen is because the tower is too tall and the cheapest and most efficient (time and resource) method of correction is to simply let it collapse. This can be done one of two ways
1) Do nothing (eyes wide open suicide), trust the institutions, and let the natural conclusion come about (Rome 2.0)
2) Initiate a change (legally render the parasitic upper and lower class impotent OR rebellion/revolution)
11-22-2019 01:24 PM
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Post: #24
RE: The coming economic crash thread
(11-22-2019 01:24 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  
(11-22-2019 11:27 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  It's timely to see this thread today.

I just heard on the morning news that the top hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, bet $1.5 billion that the U.S. stock market will drop in the next four months (link).

Bridgewater is run by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor who is considered something of an economic guru. Dalio also said a few days ago the global economy is in trouble.

I'm used to hearing tales of doom from the usual negative voices (Peter Schiff, Nomi Prins), but as far as I know, Dalio isn't usually someone who spins tales of doom on a regular basis.

For example, in 2016 he was positive about the economy, saying there is no immediate recession coming. He did, however, predict the recession of 2009, so when he talks, I listen.


Update: Ray Dalio just got on Twitter and denied he ever said this to the Wall Street Journal. He says he explained to the writer, Juliet Chung, that to "convey us having a bearish view would be misleading" and said they went for a sensationalist headline. So ignore my above post.

Here is a link to a Yahoo Finance story on this.

Also he was using put options trading which even if it was valued at 1 billion would only involve a much smaller amount of money to make the bet as puts are represent 100 shares that might be valued based on the time or bet of the direction of the stock at a fraction of the current price. Given the amount of money he manages losing several million in such a put would be a rounding error and if the economy did crash he would have effectively hedged some of his losses with this put.

Game/red pill article links

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(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 03:39 PM by bacon.)
11-22-2019 03:35 PM
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Post: #25
RE: The coming economic crash thread
I am not sold on the negative interest rates causing an economic crash. Or in the US case the inverted yields we saw a couple months ago, as that was more of a flight to yield and perceived safety due to the negative interest rates in other developed countries.

Obviously people have to put their money somewhere, but its hard to see how stock markets in general are risky at this stage since they yield often more than the government bonds. In the case of Europe, its a 3-400 basis point difference in yield, where in the US it might only be 25-100 basis point difference. The yield alone makes the risk premium for stocks attractive.

Additionally, there needs to be some type of catayist event or bubble popping for the market to really crash. I don't see any visible signs of this and last year the S&P touched the 200 week moving average. The previous crashes 29, 87, 2001, 2008 we went years without retesting the 200 week moving average. I guess you could argue some tech stocks are overvalued with their PE ratios but on the whole the PE ratios are not excessive and well out of bubble range.

I think many people are suffering recency basis. Having lived through the 2001 or 2008 crashes has tainted their view that those type of corrections are common, when they are in fact quite rare. Additionally, markets tend to move faster than ever with algo trading so the correction in late 2018 was much more quick and deep in its move than past downswings. This trend will likely continue but even if the market corrects 20% in the coming months or years, unless there was a serious bubble in play, it will likely recover quickly after that.

Game/red pill article links

"Chicks dig power, men dig beauty, eggs are expensive, sperm is cheap, men are expendable, women are perishable." - Heartiste
11-22-2019 03:56 PM
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