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<blockquote data-quote="Shemp" data-source="post: 1231227" data-attributes="member: 15314">You might want to read the recent article at GMO.com by James Montier. Lots of good charts. Long expansion since 2009 but also weakest GDP growth of any post WWII expansion. Real corporate earnings growth (not forecasts and not per share) extremely&nbsp; weak since 2009. All the per share earning growth due to massive swap of debt for equity, leveraging up with buybacks. Leverage is great on the way up, awful on the way down. Non-financial corporate debt as % of GDP has never been higher. 30% of Russell 3000 stocks show negative earnings (losses). 83% of IPO's this year had negative earnings. Price/sales&nbsp; ratio never been higher.&nbsp; All the above applies to the US stock market. It's definitely a disaster in the making, though no telling when the bubble will pop. As noted, leverage hurts on the way down, so when the bubble does pop, it will be a long and steep decline, probably going well below fair value at some point. That said, next to impossible to time the market, so I just let my holdings ride. However, I assume that my current net worth listed at my brokerage is inflated versus my real net worth.If you want good deals, go looking at Turkey, Russia and other beat down emerging markets.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Shemp, post: 1231227, member: 15314"] You might want to read the recent article at GMO.com by James Montier. Lots of good charts. Long expansion since 2009 but also weakest GDP growth of any post WWII expansion. Real corporate earnings growth (not forecasts and not per share) extremely weak since 2009. All the per share earning growth due to massive swap of debt for equity, leveraging up with buybacks. Leverage is great on the way up, awful on the way down. Non-financial corporate debt as % of GDP has never been higher. 30% of Russell 3000 stocks show negative earnings (losses). 83% of IPO's this year had negative earnings. Price/sales ratio never been higher. All the above applies to the US stock market. It's definitely a disaster in the making, though no telling when the bubble will pop. As noted, leverage hurts on the way down, so when the bubble does pop, it will be a long and steep decline, probably going well below fair value at some point. That said, next to impossible to time the market, so I just let my holdings ride. However, I assume that my current net worth listed at my brokerage is inflated versus my real net worth. If you want good deals, go looking at Turkey, Russia and other beat down emerging markets. [/QUOTE]

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