Reply to thread

Message

<blockquote data-quote="RDF" data-source="post: 1231230" data-attributes="member: 7721">They may still change their stance given the 6% correction since their announcement. The fed obviously shifts its tone quite often, and although Powell has stated that he will not use the fed as a vehicle to bail out the stock market, if the correction continues to be this violent he will have to reconsider.True. But why can't there just be a slow period of ~2-3% returns until the P/E ratios catch up to historical levels, and then the market rallies again?I agree with this being a ticking time bomb. But student debt and sovereign debt have been high as hell for many years. What makes you think that NOW is when the bubble pops? You could've made this exact same statement in 2013, and missed out on 50% returns.Same as above. We were running a huge fiscal deficit with Obama, and the stock market roared. And in 2016 the world economy also slowed. No major effect on the markets.I actually agree with many of the things you pointed out, but no one thing has a direct correlation to market movement.The truth is, nobody knows what is going to happen to the markets. However, the one thing I have learned is that it is good to be cautious when everybody seems to be on one side of the boat. The past week, there has been as much pessimism as I have heard in many years (&quot;the market is crashing, run for cover!&quot;). This suggests to me that it is a decent time to buy, if only for a relief rally.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="RDF, post: 1231230, member: 7721"] They may still change their stance given the 6% correction since their announcement. The fed obviously shifts its tone quite often, and although Powell has stated that he will not use the fed as a vehicle to bail out the stock market, if the correction continues to be this violent he will have to reconsider. True. But why can't there just be a slow period of ~2-3% returns until the P/E ratios catch up to historical levels, and then the market rallies again? I agree with this being a ticking time bomb. But student debt and sovereign debt have been high as hell for many years. What makes you think that NOW is when the bubble pops? You could've made this exact same statement in 2013, and missed out on 50% returns. Same as above. We were running a huge fiscal deficit with Obama, and the stock market roared. And in 2016 the world economy also slowed. No major effect on the markets. I actually agree with many of the things you pointed out, but no one thing has a direct correlation to market movement. The truth is, nobody knows what is going to happen to the markets. However, the one thing I have learned is that it is good to be cautious when everybody seems to be on one side of the boat. The past week, there has been as much pessimism as I have heard in many years ("the market is crashing, run for cover!"). This suggests to me that it is a decent time to buy, if only for a relief rally. [/QUOTE]

Verification