2018 Market Sell Off

The Beast1

The Beast1

Peacock
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Hoping this is a bit premature, but there's been a broader market sell-off recently coinciding with the collapse in cryptocurrency prices. As of writing, the DJIA and the SP500 are looking at a surprisingly steep drop erasing all of 2018's gains so far for the year.

It's been enough of a drop that the White House felt obligated to make a statement:

"The President’s focus is on our long-term economic fundamentals, which remain exceptionally strong, with strengthening U.S. economic growth, historically low unemployment, and increasing wages for American workers. The President’s tax cuts and regulatory reforms will further enhance the U.S. economy and continue to increase prosperity for the American people.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/white-house-issues-statement-todays-historic-market-crash

I don't think it's time to panic. We're still only in a minor correction. However, we still have version two of our government shutdown to look forward by this Thursday.

Ironically, I was reallocating a decent chunk of my portfolio recently and this just happened. My funds should be fully cleared by tomorrow which was when I was ready to buy back in anyway. This has probably been the first time in my entire life that I managed to time the market correctly.
 
kamoz

kamoz

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Said it before and I'll say it again: it's very possible Deep State is trashing the economy to basically cancel out the effect of the memo. In fact I am sure of it. The justifications that the MSM are providing for this selloff are weak. Rising wages and threat of the Fed raising interest rates? They've made multiple announcements of their intention over the last year, and delivered - none of which resulted in such a big selloff. The market has been overvalued in addition to multiple bubbles and money printing for so long, it's blatantly obvious that it's a card they were keeping in their back pocket to use at the right time.

The memo coupled with several other things (such as DACA/shutdown) all threaten the chances for Democrats to take the 2018 midterms. If nothing happened and the news of this memo was allowed to proliferate unhampered it would be bad news for the Dems, bigly. Some MSM outlets are already trying to pin the blame on the tax cuts.

I always cringed when Trump took credit for the stock market boom during his presidency amidst telling everyone the truth during his campaign. However, I do think (and hope) he is playing 88D chess by bragging about it and releasing the memo quickly - as this may have forced the Deep State's hand in threatening the economy with a good 9 months until the election. This is much better than if it were to occur just a couple months before.

At this point there's no reason to panic. It might be a correction, it might not. Either way we'll have to ride it out with the God-Emperor at the helm. I much prefer this situation than the alternative - he is far more likely to do what is right.

Edit: And yeah, I re-invested just last month too!
 
Days of Broken Arrows

Days of Broken Arrows

Crow
Gold Member
kamoz said:
Said it before and I'll say it again: it's very possible Deep State is trashing the economy to basically cancel out the effect of the memo. In fact I am sure of it. The justifications that the MSM are providing for this selloff are weak. Rising wages and threat of the Fed raising interest rates? They've made multiple announcements of their intention over the last year, and delivered - none of which resulted in such a big selloff. The market has been overvalued in addition to multiple bubbles and money printing for so long, it's blatantly obvious that it's a card they were keeping in their back pocket to use at the right time.

The memo coupled with several other things (such as DACA/shutdown) all threaten the chances for Democrats to take the 2018 midterms. If nothing happened and the news of this memo was allowed to proliferate unhampered it would be bad news for the Dems, bigly. Some MSM outlets are already trying to pin the blame on the tax cuts.

I always cringed when Trump took credit for the stock market boom during his presidency amidst telling everyone the truth during his campaign. However, I do think (and hope) he is playing 88D chess by bragging about it and releasing the memo quickly - as this may have forced the Deep State's hand in threatening the economy with a good 9 months until the election. This is much better than if it were to occur just a couple months before.

At this point there's no reason to panic. It might be a correction, it might not. Either way we'll have to ride it out with the God-Emperor at the helm. I much prefer this situation than the alternative - he is far more likely to do what is right.

Edit: And yeah, I re-invested just last month too!
Click to expand...

I would have thought the idea of the Deep State trashing the economy was conspiracy theory and paranoia until I read several stock market books. The one that left the biggest impression was "The Secret Club that Runs the World: Inside the Fraternity of Commodities Traders" by New York Times reporter Kate Kelly.

Kelly used her "ins" with various Wall Street power brokers to visit them at their estates and find out what they really do. The phrase "rigging the market" is too strong to use, but "manipulating the market" does fit.

Maybe these big-time traders are being influenced (or worried) but what's going on with the Deep State. Or something similar. Whatever the case, this drop seems to have come from left field. If there was a "classic" time for a drop it was when they raised interest rates multiple times last year. It didn't happen then, though. Wonder why.

Kelly's book is one reason I stopped buying stocks (for the most part) and instead started buying managed Closed End Funds -- and only buying them when the market was in a major dip (like early 2016). I'd rather have someone on the inside manage a basket of stocks than attempt to predict Wall St. when I'm hundreds of miles away in suburbia.

That said, there are several stocks I probably will buy if we have more bad days like today.
 
Jetset

Jetset

Ostrich
Huh. So this VIX thing is exciting. XIV and XVXY likely in bodybags by dawn. Credit Suisse is into that balls-deep, off about 8% inclusive of after-hours trading.

I want you all to know that if it comes down to it, I am prepared to raze entire towns for a few gallons of gasoline.
 
Teutatis

Teutatis

Pelican
Gold Member
The Beast1 said:
Hoping this is a bit premature, but there's been a broader market sell-off recently coinciding with the collapse in cryptocurrency prices.
Click to expand...

Crypto has been selling off for more than a month now and you can even argue that the sell off started in mid December when bitcoin couldn't make new highs, this market drop has nothing to do with crypto.

kamoz said:
Said it before and I'll say it again: it's very possible Deep State is trashing the economy to basically cancel out the effect of the memo. In fact I am sure of it. The justifications that the MSM are providing for this selloff are weak. Rising wages and threat of the Fed raising interest rates?
Click to expand...

Rising wages means people have more money, which means money supply increases, which should drive inflation higher, therefore there's no need for the fed to keep interest rates low anymore and with rising interest rates bonds become more attractive, so more money leaves stocks to go into bonds. Funny thing is the market does well in both a low or high interest rates environment.

Some of you see conspiracy theories everywhere, the 'deep state' can't take the market down, no one entity can, there's just too many moving pieces and actors for something like that to be done so easily, and if they could why would they have allowed the market to go up so much for over a year since Trump won instead of sinking it then? So nothing nefarious is going on. Can this be the next big correction or even the beginning of the big crash? Sure, no one knows and anything can happen, but the market is waaay overextended and so far this is just a much needed and healthy pullback, just the market doing its thing.
 
E

El Chinito loco

 
Banned
Other Christian
Gold Member
Seems like a standard market pullback. Long term trends still look healthy for the overall indices. There's nothing here that would indicate a top and start to the bear market..yet. The economic fundamentals look good too but it's really not the economy that matters as much as the lack of any exogenous factors that would blow the economy up.

There's definitely a giant bubble brewing though and everyone has been saying it now which leads me to believe the market will just continue upward. Usually when mainstream financial media is trumpeting something as fact it means the opposite will happen. MSNBC, Goldman Sachs, etc.. is crying bear and armageddon any day now.

If you want to go by stock market valuations it's starting to not make a whole of sense. However valuations tend to adjust upward every era.

Also keep in mind that the U.S. stock market was stuck in limbo from 2000-mid 2013. It broke out of an extremely long consolidation period so that's where all this strength is coming from. Of course it could always do a Nikkei and go into a multi decade tailspin too but there's nothing about the U.S. economy right now that is similar to 90's peak Japan.
 
captain_shane

captain_shane

 
Banned
Teutatis said:
The Beast1 said:
Hoping this is a bit premature, but there's been a broader market sell-off recently coinciding with the collapse in cryptocurrency prices.
Click to expand...

Crypto has been selling off for more than a month now and you can even argue that the sell off started in mid December when bitcoin couldn't make new highs, this market drop has nothing to do with crypto.

kamoz said:
Said it before and I'll say it again: it's very possible Deep State is trashing the economy to basically cancel out the effect of the memo. In fact I am sure of it. The justifications that the MSM are providing for this selloff are weak. Rising wages and threat of the Fed raising interest rates?
Click to expand...

Rising wages means people have more money, which means money supply increases, which should drive inflation higher, therefore there's no need for the fed to keep interest rates low anymore and with rising interest rates bonds become more attractive, so more money leaves stocks to go into bonds. Funny thing is the market does well in both a low or high interest rates environment.

Some of you see conspiracy theories everywhere, the 'deep state' can't take the market down, no one entity can, there's just too many moving pieces and actors for something like that to be done so easily, and if they could why would they have allowed the market to go up so much for over a year since Trump won instead of sinking it then? So nothing nefarious is going on. Can this be the next big correction or even the beginning of the big crash? Sure, no one knows and anything can happen, but the market is waaay overextended and so far this is just a much needed and healthy pullback, just the market doing its thing.
Click to expand...

You bet your ass one entity can manipulate the stock market. But this most likely isn't fuckery, the market's been overbought for a while now. Trump's got his guy in there that isn't ((())), so I don't expect the house of cards to crash while he's in office. But it's been done before.

federal-reserve2.jpg


img10.jpg
 
B

Bluey

Woodpecker
Days of Broken Arrows said:
I would have thought the idea of the Deep State trashing the economy was conspiracy theory and paranoia until I read several stock market books. The one that left the biggest impression was "The Secret Club that Runs the World: Inside the Fraternity of Commodities Traders" by New York Times reporter Kate Kelly......
Click to expand...

It's occurred to me that it might be the deep state types liquidating holdings to move cash away from the USA, somewhere less accessible for the reign of the god emperor.
 
Samseau

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
I feel like the market is pricing in the rate hike from 1.25% to 1.5% next month, thus the sell-off. Could be the start of a bear market, could be a minor correction. The VIX indicator is quite bad looking, however, so the bear market option seems more likely.
 
A

Australia Sucks

Kingfisher
Other Christian
My personal view on this sell off in the U.S. market is a correction was overdue given that the market went up every month for over 12 months in a row and had not even had a 10% correction in years. I think you are likely to see this correction be no more than 15% then the market will start recovering after that. I think a lengthy and deeper correction (a mid cycle slowdown) is coming in 2019 (but still not the major crash). Given the skyscraper index is flashy red for 2019 and given the projected trajectory of interest rates over 2018, 2019 I think next year is a good bet for perhaps a 20 - 30% pullback in U.S. stocks (before the bull market resumes). A good example of a mid cycle slowdown was when the tech bubble burst. Interest rates being lowered and the fact tha land values were holding up meant the U.S. economy and stocks didn’t go into freefall.

I’m getting ready to buy some more Australian stocks soon (if the market keeps falling).
 
Mr. Accuride

Mr. Accuride

Woodpecker
We were simply due for a market drop; it was really a matter of time.
Trump ushered in one of the most ridiculously stable markets ever since he got elected, and every dip was slam bought, even for garbage equities.

In a normal market, we would have seen some profit taking by now.
 
estraudi

estraudi

Pelican
Gold Member
Just bought shares of an index fund this past week, and now seems like a dumb move.
Guess I'll just wait it out to see what happens.
Hate having to put in, pull out at the right time




...unless it's with a female.
 
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