2020 Presidential Betting Thread

Time to double post.

I just got off live chat with a bet365 keyboard slave. Their decision to finalise all bets is "in line" with their betting policies that the MEDIA have now given Joe Biden the win as he is over 270+ votes.

I'm going to go through several bodies governing them once the results are finalised if this swings Trumps way which I believe is highly likely. If they do not give me a full refund or reinstate my bet I will start the process against them.

Their rules are flawed and based on unofficial sources.
I got lucky by only putting 100 on there, simply by chance. They had closed their bets and other sites still had theirs up. I’m closing my account with them and won’t be using them for even small sports bets. The idea you wouldn’t use the rules of the country’s government as the criteria for what constitutes an official win is mind blowing. Fuck em nonetheless.
 

Cuchulainn2016

Woodpecker
I just emailed bet365 asking for clarification. I said that they are still counting votes, so when was their cutoff date for total votes for the american election.

Kind of hoping they say it was the day of the election, cause I will just reply pointing out Trump won at the end of election day.
 
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jarlo

Woodpecker
Orthodox
Can you still place bets on any markets? I would be down to put up $100-$500 or so on Trump at current odds, depending on how the site is planning to determine the election winner.
 

icrus

Robin
I can't speak for myself but I heard from others that Betmoose is good. You do have to bet in crypto though from what I could understand (not a gambling man).
 

jarlo

Woodpecker
Orthodox
I can't speak for myself but I heard from others that Betmoose is good. You do have to bet in crypto though from what I could understand (not a gambling man).
Thanks for the tip - looks like you can bet on Trump at 3:1 odds right now:

 

jarlo

Woodpecker
Orthodox
Are the markets gradually showing favor to Trump or generally been still?
It's hard to tell - on BetMoose, you can look through the history of placed bets and see what the odds are. There seems to be pretty high variance, so it's hard at least at a glance to detect any pattern:

odds.jpg
 

Tactician

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I just emailed bet365 asking for clarification. I said that they are still counting votes, so when was their cutoff date for total votes for the american election.

Kind of hoping they say it was the day of the election, cause I will just reply pointing out Trump won at the end of election day.

Hey, I mentioned this on page 8. Their own rules state it's the day of the election: https://help.bet365.com/product-help/sports/Rules/Politics

US Election
All bets are settled on the winner of the election and not on the person who is inaugurated.

Bets on Total U.S. Electoral College Votes will be settled based on the vote in each state (and in each Congressional district in Maine and Nebraska) on the day of the election, and not on the actual meeting of the electoral college.

Trump won if only votes on the day of the election are counted. Also, bet365 was offering bets on this election as far out as Nov 6th.

Anyway, I fully expect bet365 to pay out when Trump wins as this is the easiest solution for all parties.
 

FrancisK

Kingfisher
Gold Member
You can get really nice returns on predictit still for pro Trump bets. Most are trading at around 12-15 cents which would be a significantly larger return that the betting sites it looks like. If you can find an open market that is, I’m sure some of the periphery ones are still available or keep trying until one is.

I don’t trust the offshore sites at all, when I was younger and much more dumb I had a crazy streak one week and hit some wild parlays and was up mid 5 figures on one of the old defunct renamed books. Well they came up with some bs not to pay it and there was nothing at all I could do, completely stonewalled me. I ended up charging all the money back with my bank but of course never got any winnings and I’ve been black booked from every site since. Funny I got black booked because they wouldn’t pay....bastards.
 

AneroidOcean

Hummingbird
Gold Member
You can get really nice returns on predictit still for pro Trump bets. Most are trading at around 12-15 cents which would be a significantly larger return that the betting sites it looks like. If you can find an open market that is, I’m sure some of the periphery ones are still available or keep trying until one is.

I don’t trust the offshore sites at all, when I was younger and much more dumb I had a crazy streak one week and hit some wild parlays and was up mid 5 figures on one of the old defunct renamed books. Well they came up with some bs not to pay it and there was nothing at all I could do, completely stonewalled me. I ended up charging all the money back with my bank but of course never got any winnings and I’ve been black booked from every site since. Funny I got black booked because they wouldn’t pay....bastards.

Don't post crap information. I already posted that market is long since closed. There doesn't appear to be any markets other than the presidential election winner person and party markets open (or equivalents which have been closed for a long time) and they are NOT going to re-open. Some equivalents:

Will a woman be elected U.S. vice president in 2020? - CLOSED 10/30/2020

Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election? - CLOSED 11/3/2020

Which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election? - CLOSED 11/3/2020

I am considering entering this market, but I'm not sure I'm clear on the rules. Currently at $0.12 (or about 8 to 1 payout) if Fox News withdraws it's official declaration or projection for the winner of the popular vote in any EC jurisdiction. Those odds are juicy:

Will Fox withdraw a projection of a presidential winner in any jurisdiction?

Anyone have any thoughts on the above market?
 

FrancisK

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Don't post crap information. I already posted that market is long since closed. There doesn't appear to be any markets other than the presidential election winner person and party markets open (or equivalents which have been closed for a long time) and they are NOT going to re-open. Some equivalents:

Will a woman be elected U.S. vice president in 2020? - CLOSED 10/30/2020

Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election? - CLOSED 11/3/2020

Which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election? - CLOSED 11/3/2020

I am considering entering this market, but I'm not sure I'm clear on the rules. Currently at $0.12 (or about 8 to 1 payout) if Fox News withdraws it's official declaration or projection for the winner of the popular vote in any EC jurisdiction. Those odds are juicy:

Will Fox withdraw a projection of a presidential winner in any jurisdiction?

Anyone have any thoughts on the above market?

Okay please excuse me then wasn’t trying to give post crap info but I don’t think you read what i wrote. I didn’t mention any specific market, I only said “pro Trump”.

There are plenty of periphery markets still open, ones that still pretty much amount to betting if Trump will win or not even if they don’t say that directly.

There are two markets right now asking if Trump will win one of 3 different listed states that I got into last night as I knew they would rise after Powell’s suit was filed today, didn’t know there would also be a hearing in PA which helped a lot.
 

Chrome

Robin
To clarify, those markets are not "closed". I still own shares in all three described and can trade as I please. I also own shares in all of the presidential markets, which I bought into in June to ensure I would have access once trading got hot. PredictIt added that "closed" addendum so unsophisticated gamblers who didn't read the rules would stop nagging them.

One of the requirements of PredictIt's permission to operate from the CFTC is that no contract can have more than 5,000 traders. Several of the most popular contracts are maxed out in this fashion. If someone closes out their position, it opens up a spot.

If you don't understand all the rules, you should probably stay out of the market. It's like that old saying about poker... if you don't know who the sucker is at the table, it's probably you.
 

AneroidOcean

Hummingbird
Gold Member
To clarify, those markets are not "closed". I still own shares in all three described and can trade as I please. I also own shares in all of the presidential markets, which I bought into in June to ensure I would have access once trading got hot. PredictIt added that "closed" addendum so unsophisticated gamblers who didn't read the rules would stop nagging them.

One of the requirements of PredictIt's permission to operate from the CFTC is that no contract can have more than 5,000 traders. Several of the most popular contracts are maxed out in this fashion. If someone closes out their position, it opens up a spot.

If you don't understand all the rules, you should probably stay out of the market. It's like that old saying about poker... if you don't know who the sucker is at the table, it's probably you.
If someone isn't in the market already they have next to zero chance of getting into the market so it's effectively closed. That technicality is just that, a technicality. How it generally plays out is that everyone is waiting to get paid out and there's some small amount of trading by those still in the market and not already maxed out but that doesn't mean much to the people not already in the market.
 

Chrome

Robin
That is incorrect. I have bought into several markets after they have maxed out on traders, or as you say, "effectively closed." People have different reasons for opening positions, holding, or closing out - this is no technicality. "How it generally plays out" is a poor paradigm for an argument or a betting strategy.
 
Hi,

I think Trump has solid chance to still win election. However, do you think there is chance that betfair will pay prematurely to Biden betters if Trump wins after long court battle?

Betfair seems to imply that if electoral college decides president it will close the topic. Do supreme court make their decision before or after 14th day of December?

Here is betfair´s update. I cannot evaluate this topic fully because I am not aware of alection technicalities in US well enough.

Update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (dated Friday, 27th November, [17:00])
We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.
Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.
We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date.
The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.
 
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