Analysis of the causes of the war

Philosopher

Kingfisher
Orthodox

Basically the parallels are with Israel siding with Egypt against Babylon like Ukraine siding with US against Russia, a distant ally won’t help. Everything I have been telling my Ukrainian relatives for 20 years falling on dead ears. Do not go against Russia-poking bears that live near you is unwise.
 

fortyfive

Kingfisher
Other Christian
I like to read these intellectual analyses, but in my opinion, all are based on a faulty premise. These scholars always wrongly assume that when some politician is at the top of the current food chain, then it is because that person must be intellectually superior to the peers below him.
They see these men as leaders with a vision, with divine insight into the future, who are leading nations towards destiny and are playing some big chess game, and that game is such sophisticated that no ordinary man can understand it.

But the reality is much more mundane and void of any mystery. These politicians never possessed any metaphysical wisdom and brilliance.
They don't even know how to play chess. When was the last time you have read something they wrote? You didn't because they never created one noteworthy article.

They are just stupid actors. And actors don't produce anything, they play only and pretend to be someone else.
They are shameful lizards, spineless creatures who learned how to fake everything, lie, stab in the back, and are selling themselves like prostitutes for the highest bid.
They are whitewashed tombs, which look beautiful on the outside but on the inside are full of the bones of the dead and everything unclean. Matthew 23.27

Unfortunately, earthly men chose to follow these fallen creatures instead of God. That's why humans are constantly through history in a trouble.
 

Viktor Zeegelaar

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
It's funny how you, when you get deeper into your studies of reality, come to analysis and conclusions pretty fast when something new turns up. With this situation it took me a quick glance to see what's going on, which in my view comes down to the West (better said the globalist powerhause at the top who no one sees yet steer every worldly direction) encroaching on the dog's territory and poking him long enough until he lashes out, so that a conflict could be instigated that would have potential to go global, a long long cherished wish by the elite. Paint a country as the boogeyman, steer up chaos and unrest at their border, wait til they respond, go all in with your prepared mainstream media to roll out your great reset agenda further by encroaching on freedoms, opinions, dissidents. It's for a reason that you go to jail for 25 years in Slovenia if you only voice any understanding for the Russian position, or 3 years in Czech, or being austracized out of society in any other country. In fact what I've seen lately is the steered and coordinated attack on personal liberty on steroids compared to even corona narrative.

So we see once again that there are always powers involved when a war is started, and agenda's to be rolled out. When one is interested in the background of the 20th century wars and how the same clique of people and their descendents instigated world wars and other conflicts in the 20th century it's worth to check out Tragedy and hope by Carroll Quigley, a former historian from the council on foreign relations, an elite tea club where the course of the world is decided. He's an insider so when you go through that material you realize how deep the maze goes, yet how profoundly easy to understand and simple it is when you see the patterns: all wars lead back to the same agenda, overall centralization of global power by the same group of people again and again. That's why after every war there's a call for international cooperation, attack on nationalism, more internationalism, more international institutions (most notably the UN and associated organizations after WWII). The book is quite big, so check out these series:

 

Kev

Pigeon
Orthodox
I hope this is the right thread to post this in. I would hope that many of you read the work of "The Saker" (http://thesaker.is). If not, below is an excerpt of one of his posts today.

"The Russian Embassy in Geneva has released a document entitled “War Crimes and Crime against Humanity Committed by the Ukrainian Military-Poltiical Leadership in the Donbass” and made it available here:​
Their servers are now also under DDoS attack, as are most Russian government resources and, in yet another illegal act of international aggression, most Russian media outlets in the West.​
I managed to find that document here:​
I have also uploaded it here:​

I think this explains, at least to some extent, some of the causes of this conflict. I highly recommend his site for a very open and frank discussion of the RF side of the conflict - he provides translations of Russian sources.
 

Philosopher

Kingfisher
Orthodox
I hope this is the right thread to post this in. I would hope that many of you read the work of "The Saker" (http://thesaker.is). If not, below is an excerpt of one of his posts today.

"The Russian Embassy in Geneva has released a document entitled “War Crimes and Crime against Humanity Committed by the Ukrainian Military-Poltiical Leadership in the Donbass” and made it available here:​
Their servers are now also under DDoS attack, as are most Russian government resources and, in yet another illegal act of international aggression, most Russian media outlets in the West.​
I managed to find that document here:​
I have also uploaded it here:​

I think this explains, at least to some extent, some of the causes of this conflict. I highly recommend his site for a very open and frank discussion of the RF side of the conflict - he provides translations of Russian sources.
Russian news reported that they sent their Collection of Ukrainian War Crimes to Strasbourg, France
 

Stadtaffe

Kingfisher
Orthodox
Gold Member
I listened to half of this today:
...certainly an eye open re the causes of the war. They guy being interviewed is a bit of a cowboy, fighting for Donetsk but sheds a lot of light on how this situation came to be. It sounds like, unsurprisingly, there a number of details about Ukraine not mentioned by the MSM.

Also, courtesy of Jerm warfare:

1646452906080.png
 

cosine

Woodpecker
This doesn't quite fit into "causes" of the current war, but it's important for people to remember(especially poorly educated Westerners) the terror-famine during the collectivization period in the early 1930's in Ukraine under the Soviet Union.

Stalin's actions starved at least 3 million Ukrainians to death, mostly around 1932-1933. He banned free movement throughout the area, and denied the famine's existence to the point that he shot the people who conducted the census after the famine.

Of course modern Western socialists teach young people about the evils of Hitler -- but they avoid teaching young people about the horrors of the USSR's attempts at communism.

I tend to think, but can't confirm that most Ukrainians still remember their history regarding the last time the Russians subjugated them.
 

Mountaineer

 
Banned
Orthodox Catechumen
Gold Member

A Botched Plan Being Implemented Hastily​

As I’ve said many times, my assessment of the global situation is that in the 1970s through the 1990s, when much more competent people were running this agenda, the consensus was reached that building up the economy of China would result in the integration of China as a part of the “global community.” Some voices, which I’ve mentioned in my various book lists, disagreed with this and warned that the whole thing could backfire, with Samuel P. Huntington being one of the more notable global chess players who warned that China could become a modern society and retain traditional values. But they went ahead with it anyway, believing that they could use China as a production machine and then get them to go feminist and gay like the West.
What appears to be happening now is that with all of those people who planned this New World Order dead or in their 90s and out of the game (with the notable exception of George Soros), the current, much less competent elite is going ahead with the plans laid out under core a very important core assumption – the submission of China – that has proved wrong.
Basically everything on the television about the Ukraine-Russia conflict is a lie. Everything that is said is on par with the Ghost of Kiev or Snake Island. But occasionally, one of these news outlets says something that is absolutely true, and absolutely fundamental to what is happening right now: Russia would not be able to do what they are doing if it were not for assurances from China.
Without the alliance with China, Russia would be easily defeated. Frankly, if China had integrated in the way that it was planned for them to do, Russia wouldn’t even exist in its current form, and they certainly would not be grabbing territory while the West sits back and whines about it.
For this New World Order/Great Reset agenda to work, both Russia and China have to capitulate. Basically, this comes down to two men, holding back the formation of a global slave grid, mass population reduction, and pedophile transhumanist invasion of outer space.

If you go through and read globalist books, you run into this term borrowed from Hegel: “historical necessity.” The capitulation of Russia and China is an historical necessity for this plan that is being implemented.
I don’t believe that the current masters are interested in a nuclear war, or any form of large scale war with Russia and China. However, they are in a rush, because the trigger has already been pulled – the coronavirus was the trigger to bring in a new conception of human existence, and now the race is on to bring this Beast to life. That means that those pulling the strings are willing to walk all the way up to an open war, as they push for removing Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping from power, and replacing their governments with “democracy.”
The plan, vaguely, is to take out Russia and then take out China. If you take out Russia, China is totally isolated, and doesn’t really have many options. I’ve played through all of these various scenarios in my head, and although people I respect have said that the Western concept of the New World Order is not completely off the table just yet, I personally don’t see any way the Western rulers can pull this off.
Along with being less competent than the previous generation of globalist lunatics, the current elite is much more decadent, depraved, and bizarre, and therefore I think much more cowardly, meaning they might end up simply backing down and turning their aggression inward. That is pretty much the only possible recalibration at this point – full surrender to a world dominated by Chinese trade routes. I’m not sure that a bunch of decadent perverts are willing to risk getting annihilated in order to go on a kamikaze mission. If they surrendered, they would still be able to live out their lives in decadence.
However, I think that cowardice is counterbalanced by a hubris, a total disconnect from reality, and to some extent sheer stupidity. Watching these people on Sunday talk casually about nuclear war, saying basically, “oh well, if Putin fires nukes, we can just fire nukes back at him,” you can see that they do not understand the gravity of this situation.
Whether they back down or they push through and stumble into some kind of nuclear war, the outcome is going to be very bad for the average Westerner, particularly the urbanite.
 

Papist

Kingfisher
Trad Catholic
This doesn't quite fit into "causes" of the current war, but it's important for people to remember(especially poorly educated Westerners) the terror-famine during the collectivization period in the early 1930's in Ukraine under the Soviet Union.

Stalin's actions starved at least 3 million Ukrainians to death, mostly around 1932-1933. He banned free movement throughout the area, and denied the famine's existence to the point that he shot the people who conducted the census after the famine.

Of course modern Western socialists teach young people about the evils of Hitler -- but they avoid teaching young people about the horrors of the USSR's attempts at communism.

I tend to think, but can't confirm that most Ukrainians still remember their history regarding the last time the Russians subjugated them.

Wow! Have you a source for that? I'm not doubting you, but it'd be good to be able to verify it.

However, as for the implication that the Russians were responsible for the famine, please bear in mind that Stalin was Georgian and Lazar Kaganovich was Jewish. Those were the two men who are chiefly responsible for the Holodomor. Russians were as much victims of Bolshevism as were Ukrainians.
 

Galaxy_Traveler

Robin
Other Christian
Here's a good geopolitical analysis of it

This is an excellent analysis and the only one widely shared that accurately depicts the root cause of the war as the geopolitical location of Russia as being at the exposed end of the European plain. I wrote a similar analysis back in January https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-135#post-1550360) when my expectation was that Russia will invade before the end of January (https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-145#post-1565051).

Both the analysis in that video and the one I did should have been obvious to the Western countries, but either due to bad intentions or due to incompetence (I suspect the latter), none of the Western leadership and the media assessed the situation properly.

And they still don't. There is a common theme in the western media that 'Putin has gone insane', pointing to his age and supposed isolation due to the Coronavirus. The western intelligence and media were wrong before Putin invaded, and they are dead wrong again about the nature of Putin's approach to war.

Putin is a classic Bismarckian leader. He has accepted the fact that borders of countries are drawn in blood, and he views war as an extension of politics. Contrary to the hysteric and infantile Western reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has a track record as a war leader from the very moment he stepped into office in 1999:
One of his first acts was the start of the 2nd Chechen war, which lasted one year and during which Russia lost tens of thousands of soldiers. Domestic opposition against the war was strong. The organisation 'Soldiers' Mothers' was featured regularly in Western media as an example of Russian opposition against Putin's war.
And yet after one year, Putin had won. One comment from a Russian officer stuck with me so much that I can still remember it: "Our material is old, but it is plenty". It exemplifies the Russian approach to war: They accept the fact that war means death, and losing soldiers and tanks has an entirely different meaning to them than to Western nations, who are vulnerable to casualties.

Putin successfully led more wars after Chechnya. He invaded parts of Georgia in 2008, then Crimea in 2014, sent troops to Kasachstan in 2022, and now is invading Ukraine. Among all the heads of state currently in power, he is the one with the most experience in warfare, and has a track record of using warfare successfully in order to achieve political goals.
And just like in the Chechen war, he will let his military conduct the operation during a long period of 6-18 months. He has the patience and the methodical approach to use war as a tool of politics. He is not insane, but as rational as in 1999 when he started the 2nd Chechen war.

Does this mean Putin is a monster? I do not think so, but he has accepted the fact that Russia is in a very vulnerable position on the Eastern side of the European plain, and that countries' borders are drawn in blood. When you have a history like Russia which was invaded by Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm 2. and Hitler, suffering losses of biblical proportions, you have a different view of war. It is tragic but a sad part of life.

None of what I say is hard to figure out, it is very obvious. It is basic geopolitics and basic history. It says a lot about the sorry state of Western leadership to not have seen this coming.

What is happening to the Ukrainian people who have endured so much during their history is a tragedy. History is not kind to countries who border rivaling world powers. Ukraine, Korea, and the Balkans. Every hundred years, another invader comes and destroys what they have built, because their geography makes their conquest and their domination necessary for the bordering superpowers' military ambitions. It happens since thousands of years and the war of 2022 is just another one in a long history of superpowers using neighboring countries as their battlefield, in this case the NATO alliance vs. Russia.
 

cosine

Woodpecker
Wow! Have you a source for that? I'm not doubting you, but it'd be good to be able to verify it.

However, as for the implication that the Russians were responsible for the famine, please bear in mind that Stalin was Georgian and Lazar Kaganovich was Jewish. Those were the two men who are chiefly responsible for the Holodomor. Russians were as much victims of Bolshevism as were Ukrainians.
Agreed, my understanding was that the largest famines in Russia occurred earlier in the formation of the USSR, perhaps 1920-1921. And that the famines in Kazakhstan were of similar intensity to Ukraine. And of course you're also correct about Stalin and Kaganovich. The USSR was massive.


While Stalin’s reaction to the census of 1937 might appear totalitarian and in line with his personality, it was not without cause that the first people he executed were the demographers of the central statistical office. For years, the central statistical office had been feeding their leader false data on the severity of the famine of the 1930s, because they knew very well that the messenger would be first one to get shot. The head of the statistical office, I. A. Kraval, had been sending reports to Stalin describing only modest falls in birthrate and a small decrease in the population of Ukraine where the famine hit the hardest with 4 million dead. So while Stalin knew about the famine, he may have grossly underestimated the extent of the damage. When the preliminary findings of the 1937 census emerged, it shocked even those bureaucrats who anticipated far worse.

"It was not without cause"

Imagine being executed for lying to your boss, who's a psychopath who may also kill you for telling the truth.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
What people don't get is that the same (((people))) who put Stalin into power, are the same ones who put Putin and Zelensky into power. The difference is that Putin is defying his former masters, while Zelensky continues to support them. Therefore, the Ukrainians who think they are fighting for freedom are nothing more than pet Nazi's for Chews to use as disposable kamikaze soldiers against one of their rebellious former pupils, Putin.

Since nearly everyone on earth is being oppressed by the same godless men, it is unfortunately to our advantage if Putin wins. I don't like Putin or the Russian empire, I do not like empires in general, but, there are far worse evils in this world than Putin. The best outcome, is as others have said, is if our overlords are pre-occupied with fighting big enemies like Russia or China so that they leave the little people alone.
 

Stirfry

Woodpecker
Atheist
This is an excellent analysis and the only one widely shared that accurately depicts the root cause of the war as the geopolitical location of Russia as being at the exposed end of the European plain. I wrote a similar analysis back in January https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-135#post-1550360) when my expectation was that Russia will invade before the end of January (https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-145#post-1565051).

Both the analysis in that video and the one I did should have been obvious to the Western countries, but either due to bad intentions or due to incompetence (I suspect the latter), none of the Western leadership and the media assessed the situation properly.

And they still don't. There is a common theme in the western media that 'Putin has gone insane', pointing to his age and supposed isolation due to the Coronavirus. The western intelligence and media were wrong before Putin invaded, and they are dead wrong again about the nature of Putin's approach to war.

Putin is a classic Bismarckian leader. He has accepted the fact that borders of countries are drawn in blood, and he views war as an extension of politics. Contrary to the hysteric and infantile Western reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has a track record as a war leader from the very moment he stepped into office in 1999:
One of his first acts was the start of the 2nd Chechen war, which lasted one year and during which Russia lost tens of thousands of soldiers. Domestic opposition against the war was strong. The organisation 'Soldiers' Mothers' was featured regularly in Western media as an example of Russian opposition against Putin's war.
And yet after one year, Putin had won. One comment from a Russian officer stuck with me so much that I can still remember it: "Our material is old, but it is plenty". It exemplifies the Russian approach to war: They accept the fact that war means death, and losing soldiers and tanks has an entirely different meaning to them than to Western nations, who are vulnerable to casualties.

Putin successfully led more wars after Chechnya. He invaded parts of Georgia in 2008, then Crimea in 2014, sent troops to Kasachstan in 2022, and now is invading Ukraine. Among all the heads of state currently in power, he is the one with the most experience in warfare, and has a track record of using warfare successfully in order to achieve political goals.
And just like in the Chechen war, he will let his military conduct the operation during a long period of 6-18 months. He has the patience and the methodical approach to use war as a tool of politics. He is not insane, but as rational as in 1999 when he started the 2nd Chechen war.

Does this mean Putin is a monster? I do not think so, but he has accepted the fact that Russia is in a very vulnerable position on the Eastern side of the European plain, and that countries' borders are drawn in blood. When you have a history like Russia which was invaded by Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm 2. and Hitler, suffering losses of biblical proportions, you have a different view of war. It is tragic but a sad part of life.

None of what I say is hard to figure out, it is very obvious. It is basic geopolitics and basic history. It says a lot about the sorry state of Western leadership to not have seen this coming.

What is happening to the Ukrainian people who have endured so much during their history is a tragedy. History is not kind to countries who border rivaling world powers. Ukraine, Korea, and the Balkans. Every hundred years, another invader comes and destroys what they have built, because their geography makes their conquest and their domination necessary for the bordering superpowers' military ambitions. It happens since thousands of years and the war of 2022 is just another one in a long history of superpowers using neighboring countries as their battlefield, in this case the NATO alliance

Russia is well aware of their unique geographical weaknesses and wanted a buffer area between their borders and NATO, to defend against future invasion and war, something they have experienced many times in their history
This is an excellent analysis and the only one widely shared that accurately depicts the root cause of the war as the geopolitical location of Russia as being at the exposed end of the European plain. I wrote a similar analysis back in January https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-135#post-1550360) when my expectation was that Russia will invade before the end of January (https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/ukraine-lounge.15139/page-145#post-1565051).

Both the analysis in that video and the one I did should have been obvious to the Western countries, but either due to bad intentions or due to incompetence (I suspect the latter), none of the Western leadership and the media assessed the situation properly.

And they still don't. There is a common theme in the western media that 'Putin has gone insane', pointing to his age and supposed isolation due to the Coronavirus. The western intelligence and media were wrong before Putin invaded, and they are dead wrong again about the nature of Putin's approach to war.

Putin is a classic Bismarckian leader. He has accepted the fact that borders of countries are drawn in blood, and he views war as an extension of politics. Contrary to the hysteric and infantile Western reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has a track record as a war leader from the very moment he stepped into office in 1999:
One of his first acts was the start of the 2nd Chechen war, which lasted one year and during which Russia lost tens of thousands of soldiers. Domestic opposition against the war was strong. The organisation 'Soldiers' Mothers' was featured regularly in Western media as an example of Russian opposition against Putin's war.
And yet after one year, Putin had won. One comment from a Russian officer stuck with me so much that I can still remember it: "Our material is old, but it is plenty". It exemplifies the Russian approach to war: They accept the fact that war means death, and losing soldiers and tanks has an entirely different meaning to them than to Western nations, who are vulnerable to casualties.

Putin successfully led more wars after Chechnya. He invaded parts of Georgia in 2008, then Crimea in 2014, sent troops to Kasachstan in 2022, and now is invading Ukraine. Among all the heads of state currently in power, he is the one with the most experience in warfare, and has a track record of using warfare successfully in order to achieve political goals.
And just like in the Chechen war, he will let his military conduct the operation during a long period of 6-18 months. He has the patience and the methodical approach to use war as a tool of politics. He is not insane, but as rational as in 1999 when he started the 2nd Chechen war.

Does this mean Putin is a monster? I do not think so, but he has accepted the fact that Russia is in a very vulnerable position on the Eastern side of the European plain, and that countries' borders are drawn in blood. When you have a history like Russia which was invaded by Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm 2. and Hitler, suffering losses of biblical proportions, you have a different view of war. It is tragic but a sad part of life.

None of what I say is hard to figure out, it is very obvious. It is basic geopolitics and basic history. It says a lot about the sorry state of Western leadership to not have seen this coming.

What is happening to the Ukrainian people who have endured so much during their history is a tragedy. History is not kind to countries who border rivaling world powers. Ukraine, Korea, and the Balkans. Every hundred years, another invader comes and destroys what they have built, because their geography makes their conquest and their domination necessary for the bordering superpowers' military ambitions. It happens since thousands of years and the war of 2022 is just another one in a long history of superpowers using neighboring countries as their battlefield, in this case the NATO alliance vs. Russia.
Russia is well aware of their unique geographical weaknesses and wanted a buffer area between their borders and NATO, to defend against future invasion and war, something they have experienced many times in their history. NATO stupidly ignored this and was actively talking to Ukraine and Finland about joining, prompting this invasion. What was Putin supposed to do? Imagine the reaction in the US if a neighboring country joined the Warsaw Pact or cozied up to the Russians. Oh, wait, we don’t have to imagine it, since it really happened in Cuba and Central America. We engineered coups against democratically elected governments, instituted blockades and nearly went to war. Hell, we wouldn’t even stand for a Cuban airfield in Grenada.

Yet, Western leaders are scratching their heads trying to figure out what Putin wants, and are calling him evil, insane, and every other name in the book. He just wants security for his country, like every other country, and didn’t appreciate NATO expanding into his sphere of influence so blatantly. Do you know who is responsible for the invasion, and all of the footage from Ukraine that gets the news readers and ‘analysts’ so teary-eyed and bloodthirsty for war? The guy who said “yeah, sure” when Ukraine suggested joining NATO. That’s when the war started.
 
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