Trump got 15% of black males or something in 2016. If he can get that up even a few more percentage points without losing any of the white vote, Biden has no chance.
Don't be fooled. The black vote can't win or lose any state in the union. No matter what. They simply aren't large enough. They can win local elections and state elections (in some places), but not national presidential elections.
It's the immigrant and white middle class and blue collar-class vote that swings national elections. Virginia turned blue because it was filled up with SJWs working for Uncle Sam and immigrants flooding in from over seas to DC-suburbia.
What's more, blacks will stay home unless you have a D candidate that panders to them. They didn't like Hilary, so they stayed away. Obama, duh, they came out in droves for. They didn't care for Kerry or Gore all that much. Bubba they loved.
Much has been made about Biden and the black vote, how he got the nom because he was associated with Obama and the old black ladies came out for him in S.C. I'm not sold on that notion. I think it was other things, but that's another post.
For my money: when blacks are enthusiastically coming out for a presidential candidate, the candidate will win, but not because of the black vote. Blacks love a front-runner, and so when they smell a certain D candidate with momentum they come running out for him. The black vote is a trailing indicator of a candidate's potential to win, NOT a cause.