Cancer and Statistical Illusion

[cardguy]

I have being meaning to mention this for awhile. But I will just dump it here...

Doctors are no different to businessmen.

Let me explain - and I don't mean that statement in the way you think I might.

You see - your average businessman is a smart guy who wants to be rich. So - he starts up a business and is happy with a ten percent chance (let's say?) of making a couple million bucks.

Now - what about doctors? They have similar desires - but are happy to take the path of settling for the 100% chance of making 200,000 dollars. Which thanks to 'expected value' amounts to the same thing.

Essentially - they have the same goals as the businessman - but dress it up in bullshit about wanting to help others.

For many people - they would rather guarantee a smaller amount - than take a risk at shooting for a larger amount.

It is an obvious point. But I just want to stress that doctors are not your friends. They are in the business they are in (medicine) because it is the easiest way for them to achieve the lifestyle they want. Just like a businessman.

Indeed - the doctor's approach is more rational than the businessman's since (according to research) the marginal utility of money starts to dramatically fall off after the first 70,000 dollars or so.

Sorry for the sidetrack - but it is a point I have being meaning to make for awhile!

 

[Cyr]

I have being meaning to mention this for awhile. But I will just dump it here...

Doctors are no different to businessmen.

Let me explain - and I don't mean that statement in the way you think I might.

You see - your average businessman is a smart guy who wants to be rich. So - he starts up a business and is happy with a ten percent chance (let's say?) of making a couple million bucks.

Now - what about doctors? They have similar desires - but are happy to take the path of settling for the 100% chance of making 200,000 dollars. Which thanks to 'expected value' amounts to the same thing.

Essentially - they have the same goals as the businessman - but dress it up in bullshit about wanting to help others.

For many people - they would rather guarantee a smaller amount - than take a risk at shooting for a larger amount.

It is an obvious point. But I just want to stress that doctors are not your friends. They are in the business they are in (medicine) because it is the easiest way for them to achieve the lifestyle they want. Just like a businessman.

Indeed - the doctor's approach is more rational than the businessman's since (according to research) the marginal utility of money starts to dramatically fall off after the first 70,000 dollars or so.

Sorry for the sidetrack - but it is a point I have being meaning to make for awhile!

Thats too strong a generalisation. I know a lot of people who are in the process of applying for medical school, and for most of them, helping people/ providing pastoral care is their main motivation to go into medicine.

 

[cardguy]

Maybe - maybe not.

I think everyone makes risk/reward calculation before undergoing a difficult degree such as medicine.

I might be wrong. I often am! But - my understanding of human nature tells me that people say one thing - whilst being motivated by something else.

The easiest person to lie to is yourself.

 

[OkStudies]

The assertion of the OP that cancer is biologically unavoidable is not exactly true. Not only do a significant chunk of humans never get cancer (such as most members of my family), but there are animals with a 0% cancer rate, such as the naked mole rat http://www.nature.com/news/simple-molecule-prevents-mole-rats-from-getting-cancer-1.13236.

Cancer *is* curable we will find a cure for it. Hopefully the Federal Death Administration will not bungle it when it does come.

 

[rottenapple]

Isn't cancer mostly affecting western world? Or is that because detection in third world is much worse?

Also what do you guys think about influence of radiation? From what I heard, numerous sources are claiming cellphones, wifi, etc. are detrimental, yet others the opposites, very ambiguous. It can be similar as to how people taught smoking or asbest was harmless.

It would also love to see the difference in cancer numbers from people living in big cities opposed to people living in small villages with less polution.

 

[Samseau]

I have being meaning to mention this for awhile. But I will just dump it here...

Doctors are no different to businessmen.

Let me explain - and I don't mean that statement in the way you think I might.

You see - your average businessman is a smart guy who wants to be rich. So - he starts up a business and is happy with a ten percent chance (let's say?) of making a couple million bucks.

Now - what about doctors? They have similar desires - but are happy to take the path of settling for the 100% chance of making 200,000 dollars. Which thanks to 'expected value' amounts to the same thing.

Essentially - they have the same goals as the businessman - but dress it up in bullshit about wanting to help others.

For many people - they would rather guarantee a smaller amount - than take a risk at shooting for a larger amount.

It is an obvious point. But I just want to stress that doctors are not your friends. They are in the business they are in (medicine) because it is the easiest way for them to achieve the lifestyle they want. Just like a businessman.

Indeed - the doctor's approach is more rational than the businessman's since (according to research) the marginal utility of money starts to dramatically fall off after the first 70,000 dollars or so.

Sorry for the sidetrack - but it is a point I have being meaning to make for awhile!

Although I have seen some people become doctors for the money, usually the money isn't worth it. The amount of hours you must work as a Doctor, not to mention the insane competition there is so you can work at a hospital in a good location (as opposed to Kansas), makes me believe that becoming a doctor isn't as good a deal as people think it is.

 

[soup]

People I know who became doctored did it not just to make decent living but because they really wanted to help others.

 

[TonySandos]

simultaneous agreement with both perspectives

 

[clever alias]

2 things
1) being a doctor for the money usually is not worth it, agreeing with Samseau. Not a very good hours to ernings ratio, and it gets even worse when you calculate medical school costs as well as how long you have to train for.
2) cancer is caused by changes in DNA, and then a weak immune response that cannot kill the cancerous cell. This seems that on a long enough time line, everyone will get cancer. As we age, accumulated errors (that's all "ageing" really is) will build up and the immune system will have a progressively harder time as it loses its effectiveness as available T cells become too specialized

 

[cardguy]

To add to what I wrote before. I think doctors do think along the lines I suggested when making career choices.

You see when you are at school - most people think of their future careers in pretty simple categories. They want to be a lawyer, a doctor, an engineer, a teacher, a nurse, a vet, a dentist and so on.

The point is that - even though there are thousands of different types of jobs. Most people are conditioned by school (whilst they are still young) to think in terms of picking only one of about ten different career paths.

Most people do not end up going down one of those paths. Yet - most people assume they will when they are still young enough to not have any experience of the world and the job market.

Look at the list above - I bet a lot of you thought you would have one of those jobs - and I bet a lot of you who thought that - ended up doing something completely different.

Now - as adults we may think of being a doctor as a bad investment. In terms of the expense of medical school - the number of hours you work, and the competition.

But - in the mind of a young person - being a doctor is the 'best' career path they can identify (at that age) which will guarantee them a safe middle-class income. And it is that desire for safety and a certain standard of living which is the driving force behind those who become doctors. Since nearly all doctors - are people who decided from a young age that this was the career path they wanted to go down. It is not something that people bounce into by accident.

So - I still stand by what I said. I am sure doctors enjoy helping people and want to do that. But - there is no way that this is the driving force behind their desire to be a doctor.

In Cuba doctors earn the same amount of money as bus drivers. So - it would make for an interesting comparison to see the types of people who want to become doctors in Cuba versus the types of people who want to become doctors in America (and the UK).

I am not knocking doctors - and think their plan for life is more rational than the the risks involved in setting up your own business. Since after the first 70-80k - money tends to get wasted on status goods as opposed to items which add real value to your life.

I just want to cut through the idea that these people are driven by a genuine desire to help others. When in fact - the reasons for wanting to become a doctor are alot more self-interested than that.

 

[Glaucon]

Ketogenic (i.e. very low carb) diets are showing promise:
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1662484,00.html

Keto diet is the best. I use it to control my weight, but it also makes me feel much much better than carb full diet.

Also, I do 1-2 days of weekly fasting, which helps for the body to clean up junk from the digestive systems which are not used during fasting.

I am doing keto diet for little more than a year, in a year my blood pressure dropped from 150 to 130, and all my blood test came back positive, the doctor even commented on it that it is very good considering I do an office job.

 

[ElBorrachoInfamoso]

It seems that instead of curing more people of cancer. We are now diagnosing it earlier and earlier. Which gives the statistical illusion that people are living longer with cancer. When - in fact - most of the treatments are not helping them to live any longer in absolute terms.

I don't buy this claim. Yes, I agree that early detection is contributing to a perception that cancer survival is improving more than it really is, but early detection really is improving survival. It's just that early detection is not improving survival as much as many people think it is.

 

[cardguy]

http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-22985-post-543881.html#pid543881

Check out the graph in the link above (from earlier in this thread). The spin that is put on that graph is out-right fraud. That is the sort of shit you would expect from Enron or Bernie Madoff.

 

[JayMeister]

1) Curing cancer through drugs is not very promising because of a lot of things said in this thread.
2) In the short term it is more likely surgical techniques to remove cancer will improve. Robotic surgery (or at least robot-aided surgery) could greatly reduce the odds of complications from surgery. Nanobots are a somewhat promising technology which could target cancer cells throughout the body. However also here, progress is very slow.

Personally I think humans may be bumping against the ceiling of what our brain's capability is in terms of making sense of the universe(or rather, at this point, the capabilities of the very smartest of us). At least at this point in our evolution. Then again everybody who has thought this so far has been wrong, so maybe it is not true.

Let's realize that for the past 25-ish years very few (if any?) groundbreaking new technologies have been found. We have just evolved and implemented the ones which we had very well.

Groundbreaking is things like the internet, (jet) engines, penicillin (or any cure for any common disease), wireless communication, new sources of electricity etc.

Given the state of the world (interconnected, globalized) you would expect these groundbreaking technologies to appear a llot faster. Instead, the most exciting innovation these days is the new iPhone.

 

[cardguy]

I think people are too professional and over-trained these days.

A lot of the most important breakthroughs in science took place because of happy accidents.

Evidence for the Big Bang (background radiation) was initially thought to be bird shit on the radio telescope.

And Penicillin was discovered because Alexander Fleming kept a messy laboratory. There are dozens of other famous examples. And I wonder if the professionalism of science makes it harder for chance and serendipity to play its role?

I think one of the key tasks for science in the future will be to create avenues that allows science to be more creative and random. A bit like the 20% time that Google gives to its employees. Since science is now mostly dominated by those who are good at memorizing facts and passing exams. Which is probably not the same mindset that is needed for key breakthroughs.

The balance between knowledge and creativity is a difficult one to achieve.

 

[Pepini]

I truely despise doctors from the core of my being. I´m a lawyer I´m in it for the money, sometimes I help others but I´m in it for the money, status, lifestyle, etc, etc. I drive a Porsche, Michellin stars restaurants, 5 star hotels. It came to a point where I simply don´t give a fuck about the client. But when I screw clients I screw their money not health.

Doctors are exactly like me. You can lie yourself as I lied to me in the past.

Everybody when they start want to help others. But as time passes that line become more and more blurred and far. At one point everybody are in it for the money. You know why? Because we realise that somebody you helped can pass by you one year later, you could be starving and they won´t throw you a dime. Also you also realise the less you care for people the more money you make. Less principles = more money. I´m not talking about pennies, but real hard cash.

What I´ve witnessed in 10years practice makes me suspicious about everything. I smile at you while I´m screwing you. We become an empty shell. Which can be filled with any principle, business etc.
Everything else is fucking bullshit.

For doctor and pharmaceuticals. They are the scum of the earth. At one point I wanted to specialize in malpractice doctors lawsuits. But the simple fact is that to proove a malpractice you need another doctor/scum to issue an opinion.

Back to cancer. People look to doctors as gods or good people. And they forget the basic principle everybody are in it for the money. Some more other less. So doctors want money like me and most of the people on this forum. Pharmaceuticals also. If I do X I get 1000000$ if I do Y I get 10000. Which one should I do? I don´t really care if Y is better for the patient. Fuck the patient he will die anyway. Btw the patient is not really a person it´s a fucking number. If the number dies tomorrow or in 10 years it doesn´t affect me one bit. The only reason I will do Y and loose a ton of cash is if somebody forces me to. Since personally I don´t have any interest in it. More if I do X people will not judge me, since I can get away with it.

A medicine is a comodity. Between a pill and a steak there´s no difference. Between a doctor and a mechanic there´s no difference, besides the honours and other bullshit. You see how a mechanic makes up problems. The same with the doctor. Pharmaceuticals and doctors like somebody already said are businessman. Their goal is not your health. Let´s state this clearly the goal of a doctor of a pharmaceutical is not your health. It´s to make money out of your health. Period. The more sick you are the more money the make. If the treatment of your health is parallel with them making more money they will introduce a drug which benefits you. If not they won´t. It´s basic human nature at it´s best.

There´s a very famous story my grandfather used to tell me.
In a village there was a man who was constantly ill. He would go to the doctor every 2 month when he had a heavier health problem. Everytime he went there the doctor would prescribe a pain killer that would ease the symptoms for more two months. One day the old doctor retires and his son take his place. The same man with the same problem went to his practice. He checked him out and found a litle worm in the man´s head. He then with a small incision took the worm out. Prescribed some medicines, and totally cured the man from the disease. The doctor went to his father and say to him: Father that was such an easy disease to cure. It was only a small worm, which I took out. The father looked to his son and calmly said: well my son, since you cured the man, now prepare to feed yourself from the worm.

The basic principle is: people will only pay you when they have a problem. The moment the problem ends people will not show a small ounce of gratitude. So it´s in your interest that the problem lasts the most amount of time. The bigger the problem the more the people will need you.

Back to health and doctors and pharmaceuticals, the more time you´re sick the more time doctors and pharmaceuticals get money out of you. Simple to say if everybody were healthy doctors would not earn a dime.

Same goes with psychiatrics, etc, etc. Of course you can say. Well if you never treat a patient right he will not referal to you to others. That argument is only valid in the begining. In the begining people want to get a name and to the best for their clients. After a while the name is enough. And it´s time to rip off clients.

The medical establishment is so obscure that nobody talks about them. We talk about banks? for me banks are saints compared to doctors and pharmaceuticals. Because a bank will steal your money, but the doctors your health. And this is inadmissible. Maybe I´m still blue pill about this, but for me the fact that somebody can earn money from other deaths is still shocking. I stopped doing criminal law because I couldn´t make money from people freedom.

The reason they get away with this is because they hold you by the balls. They control your health, your most prize possesion. Also there´s real ignorance about how they work. When I sit in front of a doctor I feel I´m in front of a conman. When he prescribes me pills I feel I´m indirectly paying the next trip the pharmaceutical will pay him to dominican republic for a "congress". Yes a congress pharmaceuticals pay trips to doctors just because. I don´t get free trips from anybody.

Why is this allowed. Why da fuck isn´t a crime when pharmaceuticals pay doctors vacations?

I thought about studying medicine. I still do. It´s the only way I can´t get screwed me and my family. They say every family should have a doctor and a lawyer in it.

Civil society as a whole should take action against this state of affaires

Thanks for the Robb Wolf article. I´ve highlighted this paragraph:

"3BP is not the only promising player sitting on the bench. Other journal documented case studies exist of cancer patients ordering the handful of compounds known to target tumor metabolism from chemical supply houses and administer it to themselves – achieving complete and enduring remissions. One such study is of dichloroacetate (DCA), a metabolism targeting drug that received a spike of media attention after New Scientist magazine published an article titled “Cheap, ‘safe’ drug kills most cancers,” only to again fall to obscurity after funding proved nonexistent for the cheap drug."

 

[Samseau]

^ Nicely said Pepini.

otd:

 

[cardguy]

Why bother curing cancer - when we can just diagnose it earlier and claim the credit for the increase in time that people 'surivive with cancer'.

That in essence is what this thread is about.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-27194823 [more evidence of that here - from todays news]

And the interesting thing - is that the only cancers that have shown no increase in survival rates are the ones which only get diagnosed once they are about to kill you. As such - there are no easy to spot symptoms which could be for a slower growing cancer - which allow you to claim credit for stopping a cancer which would never have killed you in the first place.

 

[Texas_Tryhard]

cardguy:

I work in the cancer field. Almost everything you said was wrong. You started out talking about biology, and of course there was the oversimplification of everything into layman's terms. This is the innocent sort of wrong. However, you yourself acknowledge that you're no expert in this field, and that it is incredibly complicated. If you still agree both of these are true, don't you think you're being incredibly arrogant by making any assertions when you're admittedly unqualified?

As far as your nonsense with doctors...holy shit, have you ever talked to a doctor? Sure, there's family doctors who might have went into it for the money, then gotten destroyed by med school and couldn't get a good residency so they just plow on to get their MD and give people penicillin for a living. But you have to realize that oncologists (the type of people you're bashing in such an uneducated fashion) work a ridiculous amount of hours for shit pay. Between insurance, medical school loans, and unpaid overtime, we're talking a take home under 100k for some of them. Of course there are heart surgeons and neurosurgeons making crazy money, but they've been in and on top of their field for 20+ years. Getting a medical doctorate is one of the shittiest return-on-investments possible if you only care about the cash. Being a doctor is a passion that gets rewarded due to the intelligence and hard work it requires, not a way to make money while also stroking your good-feelings ego.

Finally, your survival nonsense. First of all, yes, survival is increased when you catch cancer early. Here's where you're fucking up: diagnosing cancer early allows you to remove less tissue (less treatment morbidity), allows you to remove all of the tumor, and (MOST IMPORTANTLY) allows you to treat it before it acquires metastatic potential (the potential to spread). Cancer deaths almost always occur due to metastasis (obvious exceptions include some brain tumor subtypes), so stopping metastatic potential is essential. Early detection IS our best method of treating cancer, because as we've learned from research, it is incredibly complicated and the ability to treat it is hindered by the fact that many of our chemotherapeutic/radiation regimens are essentially designed to damage cells which multiply fast (for example, this is why they cause stomach problems, our digestive lining is a tissue that has to be replaced often). We're essentially treading a fine line between killing the patient and killing the tumor.

If you think that medicinal cancer research hasn't affected survival, I would point you to leukemia. While Gleevec is a cash cow and I certainly wish that there was a way to provide it more cheaply, it is INCREDIBLY effective at treating chronic myelogenous leukemia. RIDICULOUSLY effective.

Your last assertion is patently silly. Of course we're having trouble increasing the survival of cancers that are about to kill their patients. This is almost a fucking tautology. Once a cancer has metastasized, it's really fucking difficult (read: impossible) to treat, and if any metastasis survive the treatment they've got a pretty good chance of killing you.

If you actually want to learn about cancer, feel free to PM me. Please stop talking about it as if you're knowledgeable about the subject, and for the love of God stop talking shit about the field. You don't understand it.

 

[Texas_Tryhard]

Also I'd like to add that if we could stop blaming doctors for the shit pharmaceutical companies/hospitals/insurance companies pull, that would be fucking grand. Doctors go out of their way to fuck over their hospitals (I have a relative in the hospital right now for MDS, and he has no insurance. The doctor knows that if he leaves the hospital will try its best to keep him out, so he keeps insisting that my relative is having health problems and needs to remain monitored until his bone marrow transplant). Is every doctor like this? No, obviously not. Are most? Yes.