Random thoughts:
Exporting/importing with regard to China
Trying to get the average Australian to get off his arse and produce something of quality to export to China would always be a hard ask because you'd get stuck in union disputes for six months every other year. People don't just off shore their businesses due to lower labour costs. They do it because the locals are a pain in the arse to deal with.
I've thought about exporting things from Taiwan to Australian hipsters for the kitsch value. I might still. A decade ago, I noticed in Europe that it was quite popular for people to go around wearing shirts with the
names of former Eastern Bloc countries, cities or sporting teams on them for kitsch value. I've thought about purchasing local school bags with the schools' names on them (in Chinese) and selling them in Australia for similar kitsch value.
Soveriegn debt
Obviously, this is a problem, and I don't think it would be too nice to live through a default. That said, upon examining that
list provided by others, one would note that the U.S. would be in esteemed company if it defaulted (indeed, it has before). Default is not the end of the world if an individual or nation own productive land and facilities. Civilisation rebuilds, and often quite rapidly, so long as the farm isn't literally sold off or destroyed. In the past one hundred years, Japan and Germany have gone through all sorts of problems, and yet each have
several companies that have been around for at least five hundred, or even one thousand, years. Pretty much every single major conflict in continental Europe for the past few hundred years has, at some point, taken place in both Germany and France. Armies have swept through, governments have fallen, and currencies have been destroyed. Yet both France and Germany still have some of the most productive farmland on the planet, and there is some old, old money that owns it. Onwards they've always gone. In that regard, I would say that China is at a disadvantage to other countries because of the deep degradation that it is inflicting upon itself.
China vs the U.S.
Firstly, talk of Chinese triumphalism is premature, in my mind. Historically, China has gone through centralisation and dissolution/weakening of the Chinese state several times. Every dynasty has always had a tenuous grip on power, and why wouldn't they when covering such a large population spread across such a huge and diverse landscape? China as one, highly centralised state is not a certainty within the next century. What's more is that the Chinese people, from the top to the bottom, are very, very aware of their own history in this regard. Whereas the average Westerner couldn't tell you shit about the Reformation or the Dark Ages, the average person in Greater China is very aware of his own people's history and can put the Warring States Period or the Song Dynasty in historical context and talk about them.
I think both countries have looming problems and the wheels could come off either, and will to a certain extent. I don't think it's an either/or situation, however. I think what is more likely is that life is going to range between sucking big time and sucking somewhat for most people in the world. Nationality will have something to do with it, but not as much as people suggest. The entire world, save a few very clever and prosperous countries with very small populations (thus allowing them to be far more manoeuvrable), is going to become much more M-shaped. Thus, the issue is making sure you're on the right side of the M distribution, and leveraging what you have via geoarbitrage/location independence/three flags theory/perpetual traveller theory and/or in being able to own (and hold onto) the means of production.
