The new coup is basically a group of military personnel from the armoured corps maybe loyal to bashir, who are angry about the present sharing power between civilians and the military. These coup plotters want a full military control without the involvement of civilians
Main explanation of what is happening now here. Not leaving Abiy's borderline genocidal intentions in Tigray out of the equation but there is much more at play here
The plan. The goals relate to China's BRI and the desire to either topple this China friendly regime and re-install the TPLF (rulers for 27 years up until ~2018) or break up the country.
The tools. Economic sanctions, ancient tribal grievances and the use of the information sphere
The progress. TPLF is ~300 kms from Addis (not as bad as MSM makes it out to be). Western Ethiopian Military Command has been destroyed. Majority of the fighting is now done by FANO (Amhara militias), ENDF has been severely crippled.
Other ethnic rebel groups (much smaller and much weaker) have started seizing territory as well.
The answer from Russia, Iran, China and Turkey. Turkey, Iran and China have started supplying the Ethiopian Airforce with drones of the Wing Loong type (China), Iranian drones (Mohajer 6) and Turkish drones. Not all are attack drones but it did result in the beginning of an air campaign in Tigray (often hitting civilian targets)
It would quite honestly not surprise me if Wagner would soon be deployed in Ethiopia to ward off the TPLF and at least keep Addis Abeba with the central government
Also keep in mind that the recent Sudan coup was perpetrated by forces that seem friendly to Russia and not very friendly to the US. In the case of Tigray it cuts them off from their only potential land based supply route as the TPLF is at war with Eritrea in the north and Ethiopia in the south and west.
And just like that the tables have turned entirely in Ethiopia. The ENDF+ Afari regional forces have cut off the main TDF attacking force from the East. The entire eastern flank of the TDF has collapsed and the ENDF is now swooping up town after town, city after city.
Ethiopian forces have recaptured the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha from rebellious Tigrayan forces, the government said on Monday, the latest sign of the government retaking territory.
I personally, again, thinks this stinks. Regional Afari regional forces are poorly equipped yet last week suddenly tons of pictures emerged of nearly a dozen TDF vehicles taken out
The big question now is what the US will do. Jeffrey Feltman has been tasked with leading this regime change operation. With the TDF in bad shape and the road to Mekelle wide open we could see a covert US operation. If not the US might lose Ethiopia and by extension most of the Horn of Africa
Another war that Americans don't have much business being involved in. However, I would support sending a volunteer force consisting of Somalians living in Minneapolis, Atlanta, and Columbus to be sent there to fight for their country so that they can safely move back. I am sure they are eager to return home.