That's the big question. In 2016, he won a few states by very small margins of 2 percent or less (MI, NH, WI, PA, FL, MN), meaning he got all their electors in the electoral college. Surely a lot of the people who voted for him were his core base voters (typically white males without a college education), but many were not in that group. I'm sure his core base voters will vote for him again, but if just a small percentage of the non-core voters choose Biden, especially in those states where he won by a small margin, then he's not going to win.Is Ann Coulter's prediction on the money? Trump is pandering to his base hard and doubling down instead of trying to convert moderate Republicans. Will it backfire?
Then add to that the people who just didn't vote at all in 2016, not liking either choice, who are more likely to vote this time around.