Coronavirus Economic, Cultural, Political Ramifications

Easy_C

Crow
Dont listen to "experts" who say a good target for unemployment is 8-9 percent by end of year. Thats based on nothing changing at all and companies sitting around doing nothing except watching everything burn down. Thats not how it works.
Right....

We have seen Neiman Marcus filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 7, citing “inexorable pressure” from the coronavirus pandemic. J. Crew filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on May 4, and True Religion filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 13. Pier 1 Imports filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on February 17. Earth Fare filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on February 4, Modell’s Sporting Goods filed for Chapter 11 on March 11, and Art Van Furniture filed for Chapter 11 on March 8. Stage Stores, which owns Goody’s, Palais Royal, Bealls, Peebles, and Gordmans, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 10.
Fashion retailer Forever 21 has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US. The company said it plans to “exit most international locations in Asia and Europe” but would continue to operate in Mexico and Latin America. It expects to close up to 350 stores worldwide, a spokesperson said, including as many as 178 US stores.
The all-out Chapter 7 Bankruptcy which is liquidation included J.P. Penny filing for bankruptcy in the USA on May 15, saying in court documents that pandemic-related disruptions pushed it over the edge suggesting that it is no longer viable which will scare many shopping malls. Garden Fresh Restaurants also filed for outright bankruptcy.
In Germany, the situation at the department store group Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof and Deutsche Bahn is coming to a ahead. In addition, numerous medium-sized companies have had to file for bankruptcy in the past few weeks.

The economic fallout has only begun. These are the end-retailers. Then you have the distributor companies and behind the manufacturing companies and all the shipping.

The problem isn’t so much “companies sitting around doing nothing” so much as “those companies will be bankrupt and literally not exist anymore”.


So yeah those “experts” are wrong. Because they’re dramatically downplaying it and the unemployment rate is going to be a hell of a lot higher than 9% at the end of the year.
 
I work in education. There will be major shifts across the board especially in the U.S. From what I've been hearing in the school system I teach options are longer school days, A day B day attendance, continued distance learning even into fall of 2020, some projections don't have high-school opening up until mid-year(ie start from elementary and work your way up slowly) we haven't heard anything about vaccines. We still can't even go to our school and get items even though it's been closed for literally months(but this is not the case everywhere). No one is allowed to fail in elementary this year, highschool is failing students at a system next to mine only if they were failing before. The only thing thats common is zero accountability regardless of school or district(if a student does nothing they can't be held accountable because we don't know their personal situation). Mind you this is only in my school system on the north east not sure about specifics of other places. I know some states closed school for the year early. The reason I bring this up is because our schools were already performing horribly before, all the teachers I've spoken with agree this is just going to make it ten times worse(adding on the notorious summer slide) not to mention the psychological effects on the students. I truly think this psy-op is more aimed at school age children because like 911 it will have a ripple effect and be used on them in the future. Plus they are easily scared especially if there parents have them locked down at home.
 

rpg

Ostrich
The economic recovery will happen faster than the doomsayers. Right now the major brick and mortar losses are too high for the e-commerce gains and healthcare/education/hospitality has taken a huge hit. The more people get back to work the more they resume normal activities like going to the dentist and any other surgery they delayed before. Companies should see most industries posting close to flat YoY numbers in 2-3 months. I am actually amazed at how fast American companies are able to adapt, its really been inspiring to watch. Full disclosure, one of my main clients is currently a large retailer.

Around August retail will be on pre pandemic levels only the share will skew towards e-comm. More jobs will be needed for call centers and less on store clerks. Companies are loving this because they have already transitioned their call center to work from home and can higher Americans in small towns with half the wage they would need in say California which is where i am.

While hospitality and tourism has crashed Americans will likely spend more when things open up, airlines have been balied out and most people will travel inside their country at a far higher rate than normal. Less money for say france/mexico/tailand but more for florida and nevada. Foreign travel will likely be the last thing to go back to normal.

Dont listen to "experts" who say a good target for unemployment is 8-9 percent by end of year. Thats based on nothing changing at all and companies sitting around doing nothing except watching everything burn down. Thats not how it works.

Yes its true: theater ticket stub guy, back up hostess who's job is to say hello while swiping her phone and my favorite - guy with flag pointing to parking ramp, these specific jobs might not be coming back in pre pandemic numbers but those skills as meager as they are can be transferable to new positions and it will not take till mid 2021 for the transition to occur.
People that are still employed are using their stimulus checks to buy cars. Paper tags on vehicles all over the place right now.
 

Gradient

Kingfisher
I work in education. There will be major shifts across the board especially in the U.S.
You got that right. And it's a shift that is long, long overdue. The antiquated classroom style of teaching, in garish cathedral school buildings with legions of needlessly overpaid administrators, faculty and staff, is being shown for the time waster that it is.

In my state, at the time they announced that schools were to be closed, the State administration emphasized two things above all others.
  1. Teachers would all still receive 100% of their salary. (Even though they'd be at home, eating bon-bons.)
  2. School Lunches will still be served.
The continued "education" of the students was a work in progress at the time of closing.

Students ended up getting their assignments from Google Classroom with nearly zero need for "educators" to do anything other than make a note to read pages so and so, and answer the chapter questions. Graduating seniors will still get their certificates of conformity (diplomas) and be able to go on to college for continued certification of conformity.

A lot of parents around me are saying - "Wait, my kid is doing the same assignments that they would have received during the school day, and are completing them in a fraction of the time, maintaining their GPA, and they are going to graduate just the same? Why are we wasting time and tax money on physical schools again?"

Let's start up those buggy whip factories while we're "saving our schools." (TRANSLATION - Saving our "educator's" pensions.)
 
I agree I home school my children personally and make a point to bring it up every time one of my students parents ask why I don't enroll my kids at the school I teach. I look straight in their face and tell them they will get a better education at home...even though I work there and you know what most of them just shrug and complain about why their son who can barely subtract is not getting an A. As for over inflated salaries and useless positions your spot on alot of staff in my school do absolutely nothing and since they played the game they have masters and PhD so there making 6 figures. There tenured so they basically can't get fired, and everyone knows the score its just most ignore reality. I asked another teacher who I respect about this once. He told me "its about money plain and simple, its not about the kids or even educating them, and at some point the parents stopped caring. So some of us do our best to teach and some don't the only question is which one do you want to be." With all that being said teaching is difficult for those that want to do a good job. Not physically, not even intellectually but emotionally (despite the easy money the turnover rate is 50 percent in 5 years). You see money wasted, good kids bullied, smart kids bored to death, parental neglect, mental illness and you have to try and maintain a positive learning environment despite admin that handcuffs you with regulations and students who deliberately try to sabotage everything you do. If we could trim the fat get rid of the lazy, inept and useless staff and keep the competent ones that actually care about this country and its youth (fail some of these students that wreak havoc in the school)then there would be hope but..alas...the parents don't care enough to make that happen.
 

Laner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I work in education. There will be major shifts across the board especially in the U.S. From what I've been hearing in the school system I teach options are longer school days, A day B day attendance, continued distance learning even into fall of 2020, some projections don't have high-school opening up until mid-year(ie start from elementary and work your way up slowly) we haven't heard anything about vaccines. We still can't even go to our school and get items even though it's been closed for literally months(but this is not the case everywhere). No one is allowed to fail in elementary this year, highschool is failing students at a system next to mine only if they were failing before. The only thing thats common is zero accountability regardless of school or district(if a student does nothing they can't be held accountable because we don't know their personal situation). Mind you this is only in my school system on the north east not sure about specifics of other places. I know some states closed school for the year early. The reason I bring this up is because our schools were already performing horribly before, all the teachers I've spoken with agree this is just going to make it ten times worse(adding on the notorious summer slide) not to mention the psychological effects on the students. I truly think this psy-op is more aimed at school age children because like 911 it will have a ripple effect and be used on them in the future. Plus they are easily scared especially if there parents have them locked down at home.
I have been trying to get a handle on the education plan here in Vancouver. Some of the ideas floated around have been - thankfully - beaten down by parents. Things like 'Social Distancing Box' are about the line most parents will not cross. For all the hate spewed by society toward home schooled kids are the "they turn into awkward weirdos" it looks like keeping kids from interacting is going to become a platform. I know the gangster teachers unions will support this, as it keeps from forming ingroups and in the case of boys, makes their lives somewhat more challenging.

I made some big moves in order to buy a place right across from a new school. My plan was to be able to have my kid walk to and from school and spend time with other kids in our neighborhood. Its a high demand school, with over 50% of the applicants on wait list. I think the plan for the fall will be to let him go to school, but also use the panic to be able to pull him out for weeks at a time, or just have him there Monday - Wednesday then bring him to work with me the rest of the week.

I just don't know. The social programming taking place among kids has already been extremely powerful. I fear to think what this could be like after next years flu season is upon us and kids with zero immune systems start getting sick.
 
Trump has gone full-retard into the Doom Virus narrative. All he had to do was point out that every single predictive model failed massively; that every single person shilling the narrative on TV was violating the imprisonment when the cameras turned off; that not a single hospital was overwhelmed or even remotely close to it; that the main goblin promoting the hoax has a long history of lying about diseases and is close friends with a man who stands to make billions from the vaccine - and then tell the governors that he will not allow them to imprison American citizens without trial based on propaganda and disinformation. One stroke of his pen would have sufficed. Instead he failed us all yet again, and his failure to see or think clearly has wiped out a large portion of our economy that is never going to come back.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Or they could outsource to cheaper cities/towns within the US. It's a lot easier to pay someone within the US (tax and benefits paperwork); they're in the same general timezone; no cultural mismatches; and they can pass a background check.
That's one possibility - it depends on how sensitive the job is and how dependent it is on cultural compatibility and being "on" at the same time as the client. It's not too hard to figure out the taxes part and it'll be the employees job anyway to report it.

To the degree that we increasingly live our lives online rather than interact with people in the real world, how important do physical national borders become? I could very well foresee the permanent work from home class not only decamping to cheaper locals within the US but cheaper areas abroad with friendlier people, more attractive women, less toxic/GMO food, etc...outsourcing can have many meanings.

Since many jobs will be done remotely rather than in person, it will become easier and easier to automate them, especially for the routine ones that have thousands of people doing similar tasks.
 
They have been exposed. Their death blow will come much earlier, however, and for different reasons.

Teaser: the bursting of the everything bubble is coming, which is really just another way of saying the end of this long, huge debt cycle is near. The sad reality is that this increases the probability of war tremendously. I hope we find the small % path out of that, but I'm an odds guy so...
 

paninaro

Woodpecker
People that are still employed are using their stimulus checks to buy cars. Paper tags on vehicles all over the place right now.
The stimulus check is $1,200/person. I wonder what kind of car they're buying with that kind of money.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
One that's barely roadworthy, probably to replace the nice one that just got repo'd.

The American middle class has been on life support (credit) and the cord just got yanked. Lots of people are now going to be adapting to life in the lower class, ergo $1200 dollar cars getting snapped up.
 
The university system won't shrink overnight. Just because a few people will wake up doesn't mean the masses will forego the "college experience", when i was in high-school that was the only reason anyone wanted to go to a "big" college, that sentiment has only increased, just look at how many people are breaking quarantine not to protest or exercise liberty but to "party". Less people will have money to pay to play definitely but it will just become more elitist as the shrinking middle class won't be able to send Sarah to that big uni in the city. But the son of a "prestigious " family will still be bragging about getting into an ivy league next fall. We have to keep in mind that systems that have been ingrained to the psyche, especially the psyche of the youth will not just dissappear covid or not, things will definitely change but most systems of social and political mobility will remain the elite aren't going to just "step down" because this or that bubble burst. Social networks and communities will redefine themselves in different ways to maintain their political and economic power.
 
Last edited:

eradicator

Peacock
Gold Member
It looked good at first but then I read more
Last week, Trump said in an interview on Fox Business that he’s “looking at” Chinese companies that trade on ⁦the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges but do not follow U.S. accounting rules. Still, he said that cracking down could backfire and simply result in the firms moving to exchanges in London or Hong Kong.
Senate passes bill to delist Chinese companies from exchanges

 

budoslavic

Crow
Gold Member

Above tweet is referring to Minnesota's Catholic & Lutheran Churches that are defying state order to limit religious services to just 10 people.

Minnesota’s Catholic Church and a conservative Lutheran denomination said Wednesday they’ll resume worship services next week in defiance of Gov. Tim Walz’s executive order limiting religious services to 10 people.

The Minnesota Catholic Conference and the Lutheran Church — Missouri Synod (LCMS) in Minnesota sent separate letters to Walz announcing they would resume worship services May 26. To date, the novel coronavirus has resulted in the death of 777 Minnesotans.
Noting that “darkness and despair” have gripped the country, Archbishop Bernard Hebda said in a statement that “faith has always been a source of comfort and strength and now more than ever it is of the utmost importance that we are able to meet the spiritual needs of our community.”
 
Top