College is never coming back
JULY 20, 2020
Here’s some great news...
One of America’s most broken industries is finally being exposed as a sham.
And make no mistake... the end of college as we know it is a great thing.
It’s great for families... who’ll save money and take on less debt putting kids through school.
It’s great for kids... who’ll no longer be lured into the socialist indoctrination centers that many American campuses have become.
And as I’ll show you, it’s great for investors... who stand to make a killing on the companies that’ll disrupt college for good.
I love learning, but I hate what college has become.
- Stephen, how can you be against education?!
As recently as 1980, you could get a four-year bachelor’s degree at a public school for less than $10,000.
These days, it’ll cost you $40,000 at a minimum… $140,000 for a private school... or well over $250,000 for a top school.
College costs have ballooned beyond all reason. They’ve risen even faster than healthcare costs... which is really saying something.
Kids are burying themselves in debt—$1.6 trillion at last count—in order to attend college.
Longtime RiskHedge readers know that college is broken. But the last time I wrote you about this, I had little hope things would change anytime soon.
Why? It’s a tough sell to convince an 18-year-old kid not to attend the four-year party all his friends are going to... especially when the US government is financing it through student loans.
Mark my words… coronavirus will be remembered for transforming college forever.
- But a lightning bolt of disruption just fried the business model of college.
The virus has forced practically every college to move their courses online for the next semester.
So instead of living on campus and walking to lectures… kids will be sitting in their bedrooms watching professors on Zoom calls.
This is FAR more disruptive than most folks realize.
College is about much more than just the learning. There’s the education… and then you have the experience.
The learning part has barely changed in a century. Kids still sit in 60-year-old lecture halls listening to professors.
But now, the “experience” has been stripped away. Do you think teenagers will be willing to mortgage their futures in order to watch college lecture videos on the internet?
Right now, millions of kids are questioning what they’re paying tens of thousands of dollars for.
- This is the end of college as we know it.
NOBODY is willing to pay $30,000/year to watch lecturers on Zoom calls. In fact, tuitions are already falling.
New data shows colleges reopening “online only” this Fall have slashed costs by $9,000, on average.
How many kids will jump at the chance to save themselves tens of thousands of dollars in tuition with online learning?
My prediction: millions.
In fact, by slashing tuitions for online courses, schools have permanently changed the perception of what college is worth.
Millions of American kids will soon be able to complete degrees—fully online—for way less than the cost of traditional college.
- Here's my prediction for how the disruption of college will play out.
But they won’t just be enrolling in Ohio State or University of Florida’s “online classes.”
With learning shifting onto the internet, there’s nothing stopping nimble disruptors from offering real college degrees at much cheaper prices.
Last week, I mentioned 2U (TWOU). In short, 2U runs online classes for 73 of the world’s best colleges including Yale… Cambridge… Georgetown... and NYU.
It’s only a matter of time before online disruptors like 2U or Coursera start offering their own degree courses.
For example, they could hire world-class professors to create online courses for, say, $200,000/year. Each professor might teach 250 students per school year, which works out to roughly $800 per student.
Tack on the cost of running the online course… plus a profit for the college… and you could probably charge each student $3,000/year.
These courses would carry the same qualification as any regular college. Yet, tuitions could be slashed by 70–80%.
Right now, every US state has a couple of big schools and dozens of little ones. And they’re essentially all teaching the same material in a slightly different way.
I expect online disruptors will put many of the 4,000 “middle-of-the-road” US colleges out of business.
Top schools like Harvard… Yale… and Stanford will always attract elite kids and command huge tuitions. They are disruption proof.
But the thousands of schools that sell “standard issue” degrees for tens of thousands of dollars are in for a rude awakening.
Think of them as the new department stores.
You know how unspecialized, middle of the road retailers like Macy’s and Sears are dying off?
Nimble online schools will do to traditional colleges what Amazon did to department stores.
This is a change every American kid should be cheering for.
What do you think of how college works in America today? Let me know at [email protected].
Editor — Disruption Investor
God is great my fellow forum members.
Coronavirus causing college collapse and now this fantastic news
Mothers leaving the workforce en masse to stay home and take care of their children
Research is increasingly pointing to a retreat of working mothers from the U.S. labor force as the pandemic leaves parents with few child care options and the added burden of navigating distance learning.www.wsaw.com
Way to go Bill Gates, thank you for restoring God's design for women and families. The article of course paints this in a negative light, but stuff like the featured woman in the article who leaves her 5! children in the care of someone else so she can run a business is just wrong.
Let's do the math: The daily number of new infections will start to drop when about half the people on Earth are infected. That is called "herd immunity". There are 7 billion people on the planet. Half that is 3.5B. The daily new infection rate is about 300K. At this rate, how long will it take to reach herd immunity? 3.5B/300k=11,667 days or about 32 years! We are currently doing all that we can to keep the daily new infections down as low as possible. What if we did the opposite? What if everyone went out into public on the same day and breathed into their neighbor's faces intentionally? Note: The face-breathing is for fat bearded men. If your neighbor is an attractive woman then should just tongue kiss her. If we did this then everyone would become infected very quickly. Those who survived would become immune. Within a couple of months, there would be no more corona virus. If we had done this in February, the virus would be long gone and trillions of dollars would have been saved.RE: Coronavirus Socioeconomic/Cultural/Political Ramifications
Assuming this corona will be a long-term mutating disease that will keep coming every year with same intensity or stronger.
- Remote work: This one might be obvious from the fact that Tech stocks dropped less than regular stocks. This used to be the other way around. Remote work will be the preferred mode.
- Home delivery / Online Shopping for ... everything.
- Tele-medication will become big. Online schools/Universities will become the norm for field that can afford it.
- Airlines / Hotels / Mass tourism is a thing of the past.
- The EU is finished, I guess. High density, low temperatures, older population, illegal immigration will make it a hot bed for infection and high unemployment. A deadly combination.
- Higher divorce rate / Lower marriage rate / Lower birth rate.