I thought I'd check in with our friends at the Centers for Dimwits Control to see what flavor of propaganda and misinformation was in style today.
Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.www.cdc.gov
Remember when they used to show the actual percentages for the infected survival rate of the killer virus? Those days are gone. Now you have to do some basic arithmetic to arrive at the percentage (i.e. a task beyond the grasp of most of the populace). Why is this do you ask? Because according to their super reliable statistical model, the survival rate seems to have gone up! That's right:
Age 0-18: 99.99995% - watch out kids! better mask up in school!
Age 18-49: 99.975% - oh the agonies and perils of adulthood!
Age 50-64: 99.815% - the angel of death draws ever nearer. Make your peace.
Age 65+: 98.861% - RIP grandma
Watch out grandma - the killer virus has essentially a one percent chance of killing you. As always, keep in mind that the 65+ category includes people in their 90's and 100's. What a shame if grandpa doesn't live to see 97. I'm sure he would've powered through and enjoyed a fulfilling and active life if not for the evil virus.
And of course these numbers don't account for co-morbidities such as factoring in BMI, blood pressure, and immunosuppressive conditions.
It's a lot easier to scare people by saying "oh no, 25 deaths per 100,000!" as opposed to "99.975% survival rate." The change in presentation is subtle, but undoubtedly calculated and intentional.
But my glee was quickly dashed by attempting to make sense of the gobbledegook that passes for their explanation of the "statistical model" used to generate these numbers.
Is it possible to validate these models? May I see them? Do they have any predictive power? Of course not!! English translation: it's all made up.
It seems to me that they're really concerned about factoring in "unrecognized deaths" but not about the falsely attributed deaths based on flu-like symptoms, motorcycle collisions, and Medicaid payouts. I expect the actual survival rates are much higher, but even with their most fudgy fudging of the numbers this is the best they can do to scare people.
I can honestly see a time when this information is largely offline, and only given to the experts in government to pass onto their health departments. Especially when it comes to mortality statistics. The excuse will be "stopping the spread of misinformation to save lives".