Crypto lounge thread

BURNΞR

Pelican
Crypto-winter would be when most crypto crashes, as in 2014 and 2018. If I remember correctly ETH crashed about 90-95% and BTC about 80%.

My guess is the market goes sideways-down (generally sideways buy probably down a bit overall) for about the next month. Then a large leg up, to say $80K terrotiry for BTC. A quick pull-back and then a slingshot up to about $150K. Though on my chart we were following my line up to $250K delayed by about two weeks, with sideways it pars it back. There is also the possibility for three more moves up or them being streched out, taking us into next year. Since early in the year my gut feeling has been the total cap will hit $6T, or maybe up to $8T.

This is speculation, looking at the past trend.

I've had a look through the Solana tokens and think most of the good ones have already had a good run in the last month of Solana mania. But the main space left is for an established yield farm. There is SolFarm and Sunny. SolFarm has just had a good run, but I think one of those can 10X.

Colour-coded as to how I feel it will fare against the general market for the remainder of the bull market.

out.png

Are you going to cash out into BTC or stable coins when the end of the party nears? I've decided on a mix of 20-25% BTC and 70-75% USD stable coins when the market reaches euphoric levels of gains (think first weeks of 2018). I've looked at all the stable coins and my research tells me that DAI is the one that is hardest to shut down, most decentralized. USDC, PAX/BUSD are all good choices too but I am paranoid that the Fed might crack down on USD stable coins in the near future and obviously the centralized ones would be the first to comply. Coinbase would shutdown USDC and Circle would close down PAX/BUSD. Tether is walking time bomb I don't want to touch with ten foot pole. DAI's risk is probably smart contracts, can be hacked, like everything else. Can be impaired by government too I think but probably last one to go down.

My post bullrun breakdown might be something like:

20% BTC
70% DAI
10% PAX


what do you think?
 
Are you going to cash out into BTC or stable coins when the end of the party nears? I've decided on a mix of 20-25% BTC and 70-75% USD stable coins when the market reaches euphoric levels of gains (think first weeks of 2018). I've looked at all the stable coins and my research tells me that DAI is the one that is hardest to shut down, most decentralized. USDC, PAX/BUSD are all good choices too but I am paranoid that the Fed might crack down on USD stable coins in the near future and obviously the centralized ones would be the first to comply. Coinbase would shutdown USDC and Circle would close down PAX/BUSD. Tether is walking time bomb I don't want to touch with ten foot pole. DAI's risk is probably smart contracts, can be hacked, like everything else. Can be impaired by government too I think but probably last one to go down.

My post bullrun breakdown might be something like:

20% BTC
70% DAI
10% PAX


what do you think?
That’s a good strategy, I don’t think I will sell as much BTC. It is the safest to be in, and at most I think we see one more 4yr cycle, but I’m hedging the chance that we don’t. If it gets to 6 or 8T, I think the danger to government power will be so glaringly obvious that fiat payment rails, DAI, and anything not BTC is vulnerable to an all out assault by 1st world governments. I’ll see what the geo politics looks like, but my biggest fear is a huge bull run without broader public adoption. Bitcoin won’t die but they can turn the clock back with a total war on it.
 
I hope to cash out some of my gains into physical gold. I understand that there are also gold-pegged tokens out there which would be another option.
You just need to be really sure about gold…it’s a 30% haircut each way, if you include delivery, and inflation is 2%/yr…in 35 years it’s lost half its value. PAXG is a gold token, and there is a physical delivery option.
I think I’ll stay 80% BTC even in crypto winter, since I see it as the safest from government.
 
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BURNΞR

Pelican
You just need to be really sure about gold…it’s a 30% haircut each way, if you include delivery, and inflation is 2%/yr…in 35 years it’s lost half its value. PAXG is a gold token, and there is a physical delivery option.
I think I’ll stay 80% BTC even in crypto winter, since I see it as the safest from government.
Assuming BTC hits 150k, a 70-80% draw down means you'll potentially have to live with 30-45k BTC for the next 4 years.

Your way is safest from government but works if your 20% in cash can sustain you for the next 3-4 years until the next bull run.

From what I've heard only gold and bonds lost people money since early 2020. Everything else made money. That should tell people something.
 

Penitent

Robin
Orthodox
You just need to be really sure about gold…it’s a 30% haircut each way, if you include delivery, and inflation is 2%/yr…in 35 years it’s lost half its value. PAXG is a gold token, and there is a physical delivery option.
I think I’ll stay 80% BTC even in crypto winter, since I see it as the safest from government.
Usually you are only paying about a 3% premium over spot price for physical gold with free shipping. Gold might not appreciate much but it generally holds its value over time.
 
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I've had a look through the Solana tokens and think most of the good ones have already had a good run in the last month of Solana mania. But the main space left is for an established yield farm. There is SolFarm and Sunny. SolFarm has just had a good run, but I think one of those can 10X.

Thanks for the tip. Already had some SolFarm but just picked up some Sunny too
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
I believe DAI is backed by 70% USDC so I’m not sure if it counts as decentralised anymore. UST is apparently truly decentralised.

what you said is correct. I think this is only done because the price of DAI keeps going higher than $1 due to demand. In a collapse scenario where USDC dies the price of DAI would go up and USDC would be replaced by something else to make the price stable.

from reddit:

There is currently more demand for DAI than there is supply. This causes upward pressure on the price of DAI which is not good since the whole point is that it should be pegged to 1 dollar. Maker solved this imbalance between supply and demand with the PSM. The PSM is a module which allows people to trade USDC to DAI, and vice versa, 1 to 1, minus a .1% fee when depositing USDC.

As the price of DAI increases to more than $1.001, it causes an arbitrage opportunity. Where you could deposit USDC to create DAI and sell it back on the open market for a profit. This increases the DAI supply and stabilizes the price.

It also works in reverse, if at some point in the future, there is too much supply or not enough demand, then there will be downward pressure on the price of DAI. Since there are no fees to withdraw USDC, then anytime the price of DAI falls below $1, it also creates an arbitrage opportunity where you could trade your DAI back to USDC and profit. This decreases the DAI supply and stabilizes the price as well.

The PSM basically allows people to profit should the price of DAI stray too far from the $1 peg. And when there is money to be made, you bet people will take advantage.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Are you going to cash out into BTC or stable coins when the end of the party nears? I've decided on a mix of 20-25% BTC and 70-75% USD stable coins when the market reaches euphoric levels of gains (think first weeks of 2018). I've looked at all the stable coins and my research tells me that DAI is the one that is hardest to shut down, most decentralized. USDC, PAX/BUSD are all good choices too but I am paranoid that the Fed might crack down on USD stable coins in the near future and obviously the centralized ones would be the first to comply. Coinbase would shutdown USDC and Circle would close down PAX/BUSD. Tether is walking time bomb I don't want to touch with ten foot pole. DAI's risk is probably smart contracts, can be hacked, like everything else. Can be impaired by government too I think but probably last one to go down.

My post bullrun breakdown might be something like:

20% BTC
70% DAI
10% PAX


what do you think?

I will be selling everything. My reasoning is that in comparison with internet adoption (actual users) we are in 1990 - about 3 million users. 2026 may align with AOL CDs in the post.

YWRhLmpwZw


Very few people are using crypto, or have much of an idea of what it is, why it is going up in value and so on. The time crypto can avoid it's huge winters is when people are using it. The floor for crypto is true believers, butter bag holders and the forgetful. Although actual use of crypto is rising, I don't think it's enough to stave off much wintering.

I understand the idea of hedging, and it may be the right way, but I am more interested into moving off into hard assets in the next 1-2 years - a rural home, water supply, electricity, food supplies, seeds and so on.

My current plan is once it gets too bubbly keep vigil 24/7. Picking an exit point is not going to be easy though. I think the best sign of the top will be when USD margin lending rates go to the moon. Into Jan 2018, there were a few days when it was 3% to borrow USD. In 2017 BTC topped on around 16 Dec 2017, but most alts rallied for another month before reaching their ATHs. If alts rally again, I will allocate to choice picks. Further, some alts had gains out into April or later, like VEN, ONT and others. I will consider picking up a few. I will also put modest 3X shorts on BTC and then alts, and exit them when they hit a solid bottom, place a few longs for the bounce and then back to short. At the moment I expect to exit to stablecoins, but that will be to be assessed at the time.

In 2018, during the crash there was a rally for DGD, which manges a gold token. I will be looking for anything like that + PAXG. Dollars and PAXG will be lent out.

Screenshot at 2021-09-15 18-17-12.png

To buy back, wait until BTC goes < 30 on 1W RSI, as it did in Jan 2015 (bottom) and Dec 2018 (bottom).

c511a5fshake15m6k9e0-kraken-btcusd.png
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
I will be selling everything. My reasoning is that in comparison with internet adoption (actual users) we are in 1990 - about 3 million users. 2026 may align with AOL CDs in the post.

YWRhLmpwZw


Very few people are using crypto, or have much of an idea of what it is, why it is going up in value and so on. The time crypto can avoid it's huge winters is when people are using it. The floor for crypto is true believers, butter bag holders and the forgetful. Although actual use of crypto is rising, I don't think it's enough to stave off much wintering.

I understand the idea of hedging, and it may be the right way, but I am more interested into moving off into hard assets in the next 1-2 years - a rural home, water supply, electricity, food supplies, seeds and so on.

My current plan is once it gets too bubbly keep vigil 24/7. Picking an exit point is not going to be easy though. I think the best sign of the top will be when USD margin lending rates go to the moon. Into Jan 2018, there were a few days when it was 3% to borrow USD. In 2017 BTC topped on around 16 Dec 2017, but most alts rallied for another month before reaching their ATHs. If alts rally again, I will allocate to choice picks. Further, some alts had gains out into April or later, like VEN, ONT and others. I will consider picking up a few. I will also put modest 3X shorts on BTC and then alts, and exit them when they hit a solid bottom, place a few longs for the bounce and then back to short. At the moment I expect to exit to stablecoins, but that will be to be assessed at the time.

In 2018, during the crash there was a rally for DGD, which manges a gold token. I will be looking for anything like that + PAXG. Dollars and PAXG will be lent out.

View attachment 33641

To buy back, wait until BTC goes < 30 on 1W RSI, as it did in Jan 2015 (bottom) and Dec 2018 (bottom).

c511a5fshake15m6k9e0-kraken-btcusd.png

In hindsight the tell for me is the increase rate of change (doubling) in BTC over a short period of time. In 2017 you can see that it took 3-4 months for BTC to double in price each time, except at the end when doubling from 8k to 16k had a duration of 1 month in early December. That was the tell it was over and to get out.

This cycle BTC has doubled from 20k to 40k in a span of 1-2 months. It has yet to double again to 80k. But if it reaches it again in the near future and then continues to jump to 160k in less than half the time I know time's up. It's funny because initially I subscribed to the Bob Loukas 4 year cycle and excepted a peak around mid to late 2021 but the evidence is telling me this will be a longer cycle in duration. I think the hype is that 100k BTC is happening at the end of 2021 or early 2022. I think this might happen as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I will be selling most to everything in the 100-130k range. Same as you buying hard assets as fast as I can overseas. I'm thinking property in Ukraine, Poland. Wouldn't cost me more than 200-400k to get everything I need and I'm not buying it with capital appreciation in mind, it's just have a place of my own.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
but the evidence is telling me this will be a longer cycle in duration

What is the evidence?

I will be selling most to everything in the 100-130k range. Same as you buying hard assets as fast as I can overseas. I'm thinking property in Ukraine, Poland. Wouldn't cost me more than 200-400k to get everything I need and I'm not buying it with capital appreciation in mind, it's just have a place of my own.

I am thinking much the same. I saw a 6 bedroom home in Kherson (South Ukraine) with a good size swimming pool and good furnishings. I think it was about $350,000. But there aren't that many good rural properties.

Russia is better value for money and Belarus even more so. You can get the same type of houses as above from about $250,000, at least in some regions. Some regions don't have many good properties on offer. The sweet spot are the middle-of-the-road oblasts like Volgograd.

Например:


Houses up to $500K in West Russia with a pool.
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
What is the evidence?



I am thinking much the same. I saw a 6 bedroom home in Kherson (South Ukraine) with a good size swimming pool and good furnishings. I think it was about $350,000. But there aren't that many good rural properties.

Russia is better value for money and Belarus even more so. You can get the same type of houses as above from about $250,000, at least in some regions. Some regions don't have many good properties on offer. The sweet spot are the middle-of-the-road oblasts like Volgograd.

Например:


Houses up to $500K in West Russia with a pool.

Kherson is nice (the first house is bootyful) but i would want places with airports not far away. Kiev, lviv. Lustke is perfect minus not having an airport.

I would love to get a property in Sochi, Russia.

Would be perfect to spend less than 183 days in each country to avoid becoming a tax resident. Poland ukraine is perfect for this being so close to one another.

evidence? Like I said, based on the 4 year cycle (bob loukas) it should have topped out mid 2021. Keep in mind I am interpreting the evidence through the lens of expert TA theory on cycles.
 
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Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Could you expand on how Safepal works.

1. Buy the wallet
2.Download the app
3. ???
4.Trade KYC free on binance?

1) It only works in conjunction with a mobile app - Android, Apple or you can download the APK, which works on both Calyx and Graphene
2) You verify the device is legitimate
3) Setup the device, which can be a 12/24 word seed
4) You can also import your own private keys or various other forms of wallet - I think private keys is the most safe, as you can't find out the private keys of most/all hardware wallets
5) In the app there are four icons at the bottom, the fourth is two arrows, which takes you to a page where you can swap tokens, which is a service offered by SafePal. It looks like there are a few hundred tokens you can swap. There is no registration needed.

1.png

6) At the top of this swap page is a toggle for swap / exchange - this takes you to the Binance app, which as far as I know, has all the pairs from Binance.com. There is no signup. It just works.

Markets:

2-markets.png

Trade:

3-spot.png

Settings: the only identifier is the ID at the top, which I have redacted

4-wallet.png

Deposit: you can deposit to this account via QR/address, or there is the option for "direct deposit" - this is linked to any wallets you have on the SafePal. To deposit by that method, you select a wallet on the SafePal, enter the amount, then you scan two QR codes - one to pass the transaction details to the hardware wallet and another to send the signed transaction back to your phone. This is a much easier than dealing with endless emails and authentication codes and logins.

5-deposit.png

For any site that uses WalletConnect, you can scan a QR from the site to allow you to use the site on desktop, e.g. PancakeSwap.


This is the best video for showing the features. It's in Russia, but much of the text is in English:


Invidious - https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=ysuJpGSPGf4

Trading on Binance via SafePal:


Invidious - https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=DKLPYWYK2mE

This is the only one I can find the full process in, including scanning. It's in Thai, but the app in in English:


Invidious - https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=bLb1JR_uQyk
 

Kangaroo

Woodpecker
Gold Member
evidence? Like I said, based on the 4 year cycle (bob loukas) it should have topped out mid 2021. Keep in mind I am interpreting the evidence through the lens of expert TA theory on cycles.

From his latest 4-year cycle vid on youtube, he has updated his range and expects peak to be Dec 2021 - July 2022.

WAGMI
 

tomzestatlu

Kingfisher
I'm looking for advice.
I cashed out my crypto investments earlier this year, because I had good opportuntiy to buy real estate (nothing extra big, but it helped me with down-payment for mortgage). Extra money I didn´t need at the moment were reinvested again to following coins: RAY, CAKE, RARI and I kept holding some BLZ. Unfortunately, this reinvestment came before the crash. Some of the coins got back or higher to my buying price (RAY) and some are still undervalued in comparison to pre-crash price.
At this moment, I can see RAY being the most promising. While I am not sure about current potential of CAKE or RARI. Do you think it´s wise idea to move funds from mentioned underperforming coins to RAY or some other coin from Solana ecosystem?
I am not talking about some huge money, so I am opened for high risk/reward solution.
 
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