Crypto lounge thread

Nolimitz said:
Id say accumulation for alts is here for the next 2-3 months....parabolic season coming 2020-2021. #dontbeasheep
I also think Bitcoin & many alts will go absolutely parabolic in 2021, with maximum gains culminating early 2022, in February or March, followed by the usual crash & plateauing out that occurs after a huge crypto run.

I base this on the fact that the 1st Bitcoin halving led to a price gain from $100 in November 2012 to $1100+ in December 2013 (13 months, 1100%), followed by a steady decline over the course of a year to $178 in January 2015. The 2nd Bitcoin Halving shot the value up from $570 in July 2016 to $19000+ in December 2017 (17 months, 3300%), then it declined to a low of $3200 in December 2018.

Assuming the 3rd Halving in May 2020 follows the same trajectory as the last two, we can expect the next run will last for approximately 21 months with gains ranging from 6600% to 9900%. Incredible if it happens that way.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Since the BTC purists get upset in the BTC thread if you mention alts rather than create a new thread I decided to update here.

So a lad sent me a copy of the top Crypto analysts 45 page PDF of the cryptos most likely to boom during the 2020 halving... The report is part of a $2K subscription service...

Shoot me a pm with a email adx and I will reply with a copy in return for group analysis of the reports reccs.

Cheers...
 
Very interesting thoughts in that pdf. Most is out of my reach, I have very little investing knowledge outside of common sense, macro pressures, and supply vs demand.

I dont really the see point in investing in crypto architecture (mining, payment layers) vs buying coins.

Maybe I'll have to get a trading account.
 
@burner

Link, ada, data, snt, nmr, mco, etc, bat, omg

Those are the ones I remember off the top of my head.

A couple equity picks as well. One which i was invested in before reading.

Burner...weren’t you the one that introduced link to the forum. I’d be very curious to hear what ideas you have about the current market and any projects you are looking at.
 
One equity pick was HUTMF (Hut mining). I already had equity in this company before reading report.

This is a bitcoin mining company

The fundamentals:

-Based in Alberta Canada....cool weather year round which provides for year round operational Efficiencies.

-Long-term contract w/ bit fury which provides the company with access to cheap electricity costs

-HUTMF has stacked up a significant amount of bitcoin to stay afloat should the price dump significantly (2 years according to report).

-Survived 2018 bear market

This all while China is going through their struggles. Miners have to liquidate btc upon mining in order to stay afloat...it appears the HUTMF has key competitive advantages in the btc mining industry.

Current price: .585

Buy up to: $1.20
Projected from report: $15+

It’s similar to why the gold miners would be an interesting speculative play....the price of the underlying commodity (gold) increases significantly while fix costs remain the same....and potential variable costs decrease. Which allows earning to climb substantially. See (GDXJ) for a potential gold miner speculative play.

Personally....I believe that if the btc price were to pump big....hutmf would pump exponentially.

We shall see.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Mikeyd03 said:
One equity pick was HUTMF (Hut mining). I already had equity in this company before reading report.

This is a bitcoin mining company

The fundamentals:

-Based in Alberta Canada....cool weather year round which provides for year round operational Efficiencies.

-Long-term contract w/ bit fury which provides the company with access to cheap electricity costs

-HUTMF has stacked up a significant amount of bitcoin to stay afloat should the price dump significantly (2 years according to report).

-Survived 2018 bear market

This all while China is going through their struggles. Miners have to liquidate btc upon mining in order to stay afloat...it appears the HUTMF has key competitive advantages in the btc mining industry.

Current price: .585

Buy up to: $1.20
Projected from report: $15+

It’s similar to why the gold miners would be an interesting speculative play....the price of the underlying commodity (gold) increases significantly while fix costs remain the same....and potential variable costs decrease. Which allows earning to climb substantially. See (GDXJ) for a potential gold miner speculative play.

Personally....I believe that if the btc price were to pump big....hutmf would pump exponentially.

We shall see.
Probably not a smart idea. How did it perform against BTC?

Buying this stock is useless if it performs worse than Bitcoin.

With alts, it's easy to check how they fared. You can pull up the chart for ALT/BTC (for example, ETHBTC) to see how they did.

For this stock you can do the same thing on TradingView by charting HUTMF/BTCUSD. You have to type that in manually, but it's pretty easy.

I pulled it up and HUTMF is down about 80% compared to BTC since 2019. Only 30% from the beginning of 2020, so at least there's that.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Mikeyd03 said:
@burner

Link, ada, data, snt, nmr, mco, etc, bat, omg
So, the same alts everyone's been recommending since 2017. Great.

I know you guys are probably tired of me tearing apart their fundamentals, but what if we just focus on performance?

Truth be told, alts have not performed well (as a sector) since December 2017. Yes, there are outliers, but they are exactly that - oddities. Exceptions do not prove anything.

The counterpoint is "redbeard, I'm buying alts for diversification!"

:laugh:

All cryptos are about 99% correlated. If you want to diversify, buy gold, stocks, or cash.

But hey, maybe you're right, and there is something to this diversification meme.

If that's true, backtest your portfolio against 100% BTC. Here's a tool that does this for you:

https://pandaanalytics.com/index

In most (if not all) cases, holding 100% BTC outperforms a basket of alts. On top of that, holding 100% bitcoin is 100% easier than buying random alts and hoping for the best.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
 

lonewolf1992

Woodpecker
I guess I didn't have the patience to go through the first posts, but is there any book or resource you have to get started on the Crypto investment that you can recommend?
 

Guriko

Woodpecker
Gold Member
This is probably a ludicrous post in 2020 but still…

Would you guys be willing to direct me towards a book/site/Youtube/Bitchute etc. channel where I could get some solid fundamentals regarding crypto-currencies?

When it came onto the scene I observed it, read about it in articles, listened to some podcasts, but never participated or studied it with much rigor due to the fact that I was finishing up my MD and started working.

I don’t plan on becoming rich via crypto but I’d like to diversify some of my funds into it and use to it to support creators on our side with an added layer of anonymity (if it still exists).

I’m not looking for step by step guides, but I stopped asking my friends who are supposedly knowledgeable about it because for every question I pose I get about 5 different answers and it starts to get confusing.

Thanks in advance!
 

Guriko

Woodpecker
Gold Member
lonewolf1992 said:
I guess I didn't have the patience to go through the first posts, but is there any book or resource you have to get started on the Crypto investment that you can recommend?
Guess I'm not alone, ha-ha. :blush:
 

godzilla

Pelican
Mikeyd03 said:
One equity pick was HUTMF (Hut mining). I already had equity in this company before reading report.

This is a bitcoin mining company

The fundamentals:

-Based in Alberta Canada....cool weather year round which provides for year round operational Efficiencies.

-Long-term contract w/ bit fury which provides the company with access to cheap electricity costs

-HUTMF has stacked up a significant amount of bitcoin to stay afloat should the price dump significantly (2 years according to report).

-Survived 2018 bear market

This all while China is going through their struggles. Miners have to liquidate btc upon mining in order to stay afloat...it appears the HUTMF has key competitive advantages in the btc mining industry.

Current price: .585

Buy up to: $1.20
Projected from report: $15+

It’s similar to why the gold miners would be an interesting speculative play....the price of the underlying commodity (gold) increases significantly while fix costs remain the same....and potential variable costs decrease. Which allows earning to climb substantially. See (GDXJ) for a potential gold miner speculative play.

Personally....I believe that if the btc price were to pump big....hutmf would pump exponentially.

We shall see.
How does this company make money when Bitcoin can no longer be mined? Just fees?

I don't know mining at all. Would this company go to shit if all Bitcoin has been mined? Is it possible that people are know this since the stock is down soo much?
 
@redbeard you bring up a valid point. HUTMF is down vs btc....however it has been 3 years since we have seen a parabolic bull cycle. In the case of a bull cycle I see the reverse scenario playing out.

Your point on just buying bitcoin is smart for those who are just looking for exposure to crypto....if btc doesn’t succeed everything else fails. That being said if there is another btc pump it is my thesis that there will be some of these projects that pump. Human behavior/psychology doesn’t change....although some of them will definitely be worthless in the long run.

@godzilla that last bitcoins will not be mined for some time (I believe 2140). And you are correct fees would become the key source of compensation.

Another point I wanted to bring up about this report....I think the creators are wise enough to realize that a pdf report would make its way around the Internet. Obviously many of their alts have seen pumps recently....so with that being said there is some skepticism to be had.
 

Kangaroo

Woodpecker
Gold Member
I read the pdf, i agree with redbeard, just get 10% of your assets in BTC, no point owning BTC, stocks correlated to BTC and 100 shitcoins.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
The YouTube crypto channels I follow include AltCoinBuzz, DataDash for crypto and S&P, and IvanOnTech who also features Blockchain Developer training...


###
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Mikeyd03 said:
@redbeard you bring up a valid point. HUTMF is down vs btc....however it has been 3 years since we have seen a parabolic bull cycle. In the case of a bull cycle I see the reverse scenario playing out.

Your point on just buying bitcoin is smart for those who are just looking for exposure to crypto....if btc doesn’t succeed everything else fails. That being said if there is another btc pump it is my thesis that there will be some of these projects that pump. Human behavior/psychology doesn’t change....although some of them will definitely be worthless in the long run.
Then you're just trading on margin, hoping that the correlation stays the same. What if HUTMF fails but BTC goes to the moon? You miss out. Not worth it IMO
 
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