Crypto lounge thread

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
I don't think AVA is a good buy now. When these coins get pumped, unless they can get up into the top 40 or so they tend to slide down quite heavily over a few months. As recent examples you have Numarie, ENJ, SNT, DATA and others which all grew XXX% and are now all down heavily.

If you are looking at coins that could do 10X consider PRE and MYST.
 
I am excited to see how things will unfold this year. I missed out on the 2017 bullrun because I was traveling with my then-girlfriend. I am just grateful I didn't sell after the following crash, because I was a bit tempted too, but decided to hold on. I think there will be another peak probably sometime next year, and I definitely plan on selling some of my portfolio and taking profits. About 50% of my holdings I want to hold onto for 5+ years so I can hopefully put a down payment on a house. I feel particularly good about ETH, although I'm sure there will be other winners long-term too. BTC I feel mixed about... yes, it is the most popular and the first mover, but it seems centralized with the Lightening Network (I recall reading they had some affiliations with banking and/or corporate elites), so I prefer LTC or even BCH to BTC. I think some of the privacy coins like Monero could do good too, but so far they haven't been very exciting.

I think for new investors it is good to diversify your portfolio and focus more on the "stable coins" (they aren't really that stable, just established) like BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP. All the less popular coins like Nano, Vechain, etc. that I bought in 2017 because I thought they would be "the next big thing" turned out to be a waste of money, whereas all the stable coins have put me at pretty good gains right now (and amazing gains at the peak of the bullrun).
 
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redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
I am excited to see how things will unfold this year. I missed out on the 2017 bullrun because I was traveling with my then-girlfriend. I am just grateful I didn't sell after the following crash, because I was a bit tempted too, but decided to hold on. I think there will be another peak probably sometime next year, and I definitely plan on selling some of my portfolio and taking profits. About 50% of my holdings I want to hold onto for 5+ years so I can hopefully put a down payment on a house. I feel particularly good about ETH, although I'm sure there will be other winners long-term too. BTC I feel mixed about... yes, it is the most popular and the first mover, but it seems centralized with the Lightening Network (I recall reading they had some affiliations with banking and/or corporate elites), so I prefer LTC or even BCH to BTC. I think some of the privacy coins like Monero could do good too, but so far they haven't been very exciting.

I think for new investors it is good to diversify your portfolio and focus more on the "stable coins" (they aren't really that stable, just established) like BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, XRP. All the less popular coins like Nano, Vechain, etc. that I bought in 2017 because I thought they would be "the next big thing" turned out to be a waste of money, whereas all the stable coins have put me at pretty good gains right now (and amazing gains at the peak of the bullrun).
In most cases...diversification across cryptocurrencies does not outperform holding 100% BTC. Yes, if you held ETH in 2017 you probably booked some gains, but they were probably wiped out since then.

You can back-test this for yourself here: https://pandaanalytics.com/

I played around with it a bit, and since the peak of 2017, very few "indexes" have outperformed big daddy BTC.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
In most cases...diversification across cryptocurrencies does not outperform holding 100% BTC. Yes, if you held ETH in 2017 you probably booked some gains, but they were probably wiped out since then.

You can back-test this for yourself here: https://pandaanalytics.com/

I played around with it a bit, and since the peak of 2017, very few "indexes" have outperformed big daddy BTC.

If your investment time horizon is 4 years or longer (which to me, means that any time that you add value to your investment, you anticipate holding that portion of your investment at least 4 years with of course having discretion to withdraw early upon your own subsequent determination to take profits or whatever other reason that was not necessarily your intention when you first invested), then BTC is the GOAT and continues to be the GOAT.

On the other hand, with any of the shitcoins, you have possibilities for short-term pumpenings that are greater than bitcoin, so yes it is logical, that bitcoin, with the largest market cap, has the most difficulty to pump as much in the short term, therefore, it seems likely that in the short term, you can make magnitudes of more profits in shitcoins as compared with bitcoin, in the short term and so long as you don't get exit scammed in the process of your shitcoin investment.

Merely because you can make way greater profits in shitcoins in the short term than bitcoin does not justify investing in any of them long term, whether referring to ethereum, any shitcoin connected with ethereum or some other random purportedly world-changing shitcoin... You need to be careful to be able to get in and out of the shitcoin at a time that is of your choosing, which is likely easier said than done.

Of course, guys are going to come to differing determinations regarding how much of their allocation they put in BTC versus shitcoins and which shitcoins they choose to invest, and including having beliefs that one or more shitcoins actually have any fundamental values beyond mere on paper theories and/or pumpening potentials. Be careful out there boyz, and sure if shitcoin season actually does come, then in those kinds of circumstances, guys might be able to make money on shitcoins by just throwing a dart at any particular one of them - that's how outrageous any actual shitcoin season becomes, if it were to resemble something like 2017 - which is not guaranteed, either.. but surely reasonably possible to happen in some kind of similar way.
 
In most cases...diversification across cryptocurrencies does not outperform holding 100% BTC. Yes, if you held ETH in 2017 you probably booked some gains, but they were probably wiped out since then.

You can back-test this for yourself here: https://pandaanalytics.com/

I played around with it a bit, and since the peak of 2017, very few "indexes" have outperformed big daddy BTC.
That might be correct, but I was talking about diversifying with top 10 stable coins is better than having a bunch of less popular coins. True, the less popular coins might get a pump, but they are often dumped just as quick and it is more risky.

I personally do not like BTC, it seems too establishment. Yes, maybe you are right about gains, but I like the tech and ethos of ETH and some other cryptos like Monero more than BTC. I do have some BTC but the project that excites me most is ETH, and I like holding other crypto since it is more useful for smaller purchases compared to BTC which takes forever and is more expensive. I'm not against BTC and I know it has a purpose, but I am less enthusiastic about it compared to other coins. Also, past performance does not indicate what will happen in the future. I think BTC dominance will wane in the future, although it will likely be the #1 crypto for quite some time.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
That might be correct, but I was talking about diversifying with top 10 stable coins is better than having a bunch of less popular coins. True, the less popular coins might get a pump, but they are often dumped just as quick and it is more risky.

I personally do not like BTC, it seems too establishment. Yes, maybe you are right about gains, but I like the tech and ethos of ETH and some other cryptos like Monero more than BTC. I do have some BTC but the project that excites me most is ETH, and I like holding other crypto since it is more useful for smaller purchases compared to BTC which takes forever and is more expensive. I'm not against BTC and I know it has a purpose, but I am less enthusiastic about it compared to other coins. Also, past performance does not indicate what will happen in the future. I think BTC dominance will wane in the future, although it will likely be the #1 crypto for quite some time.

You don't really seem to understand what differentiates king daddy bitcoin, and sure you are entitled to your own opinion and assessment regarding what you believe to be bringing potential value to the world, what is disruptive and what is going to persist with the passage of time. Each of us has a right to our own opinion and assessment, so surely I am not meaning any kind of personal attack regarding your assessment/opinion.

It surely is interesting that we have a likely upcoming price cycle that is impending.. and there is a certain amount of signs that there may be such cycle coming up, and sure we can look back at past performance of various assets, but then we could also take a contemporary snapshot too, and then we will could see how these various portfolios perform in the coming years.. 2 years, 3 years, 5 years.... and sure there are various ways that a guy can select his coins, shitcoins or whatever and attempt to differentiate in a way to speculate that he is not picking shitcoins, but instead "quality" products.

So, surely investing now, is not going to tell any of us with any kind of certainty regarding how our portfolios might perform in the coming years or how well tailored it is to both our own circumstances and potential objective measures of how these various coins might perform in the coming years, but in the end, each of us has to sttempt to best assess our own circumstances, assess the various products that are out there, decide based on our own circumstances and how we view the probabilities of the various cryptos that we choose to put in our portfolios, allocations and how to play them in accordance with our own assessment of our timeline, too.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
I personally do not like BTC, it seems too establishment. Yes, maybe you are right about gains, but I like the tech and ethos of ETH and some other cryptos like Monero more than BTC. I do have some BTC but the project that excites me most is ETH, and I like holding other crypto since it is more useful for smaller purchases compared to BTC which takes forever and is more expensive. I'm not against BTC and I know it has a purpose, but I am less enthusiastic about it compared to other coins. Also, past performance does not indicate what will happen in the future. I think BTC dominance will wane in the future, although it will likely be the #1 crypto for quite some time.
Did you just say that ETH is more anti-establishment than BTC?



Do yourself a favor, see how long it takes to fully sync an ETH node. Or count the number of human beings (points of failure) that ETH depends on. Or the number of times ETH's inflation schedule has been modified. Or the millions of dollars printed for the pre-sale. Or ETH's total supply (hint: no one knows).

Hopefully we can spare you Genghis Khan's fate :laughter:
 
Did you just say that ETH is more anti-establishment than BTC?



Do yourself a favor, see how long it takes to fully sync an ETH node. Or count the number of human beings (points of failure) that ETH depends on. Or the number of times ETH's inflation schedule has been modified. Or the millions of dollars printed for the pre-sale. Or ETH's total supply (hint: no one knows).

Hopefully we can spare you Genghis Khan's fate :laughter:
I have my opinions and you have yours. I don't feel like debating.
 
You don't really seem to understand what differentiates king daddy bitcoin, and sure you are entitled to your own opinion and assessment regarding what you believe to be bringing potential value to the world, what is disruptive and what is going to persist with the passage of time. Each of us has a right to our own opinion and assessment, so surely I am not meaning any kind of personal attack regarding your assessment/opinion.

It surely is interesting that we have a likely upcoming price cycle that is impending.. and there is a certain amount of signs that there may be such cycle coming up, and sure we can look back at past performance of various assets, but then we could also take a contemporary snapshot too, and then we will could see how these various portfolios perform in the coming years.. 2 years, 3 years, 5 years.... and sure there are various ways that a guy can select his coins, shitcoins or whatever and attempt to differentiate in a way to speculate that he is not picking shitcoins, but instead "quality" products.

So, surely investing now, is not going to tell any of us with any kind of certainty regarding how our portfolios might perform in the coming years or how well tailored it is to both our own circumstances and potential objective measures of how these various coins might perform in the coming years, but in the end, each of us has to sttempt to best assess our own circumstances, assess the various products that are out there, decide based on our own circumstances and how we view the probabilities of the various cryptos that we choose to put in our portfolios, allocations and how to play them in accordance with our own assessment of our timeline, too.
I did not take it personally, I was just clarifying my opinion.

Edit: Since I am not going to pretend like I am an expert, can you tell me what some of the things that makes bitcoin better in your eyes than other cryptos? I know it has the first mover principle and I do think that is important. I honestly haven't followed crypto a whole lot since buying in at 2017 so perhaps I missed out on some key developments.

I am interested in blockchain technology in general and I do not want to come across as someone who dislikes any coins (besides the scams), just I think the idea of "one coin to rule them all" is a bit silly. That doesn't mean people aren't entitled to have their favorites, I just personally like holding multiple coins instead of only one.
 
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JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
I did not take it personally, I was just clarifying my opinion.

Edit: Since I am not going to pretend like I am an expert, can you tell me what some of the things that makes bitcoin better in your eyes than other cryptos? I know it has the first mover principle and I do think that is important. I honestly haven't followed crypto a whole lot since buying in at 2017 so perhaps I missed out on some key developments.

I am interested in blockchain technology in general and I do not want to come across as someone who dislikes any coins (besides the scams), just I think the idea of "one coin to rule them all" is a bit silly. That doesn't mean people aren't entitled to have their favorites, I just personally like holding multiple coins instead of only one.

I doubt that I would be able to provide you any kind of snapshot ideas why bitcoin is the better investment, and of course, I agree with a lot of what redbeard said in his above posts (and his other bitcoin-related posts).

Over the years, I have made a variety of more long-winded posts in several of the 443 pages of the Bitcoin thread, that largely show that I have been pretty consistently following and posting bullishly about bitcoin since late 2013, when I first started investing into it.... Of course, through the past 6.5 (nearly 7) years, I have adjusted some of my bitcoin investment strategies and my bitcoin-related ideas.

Over the years, there has been a lot of marketing money that comes out of the various shitcoin camps that are attempting to spin themselves as if they were either some kind of bitcoin peer (equivalent), or as if there is something wrong with bitcoin that they are purportedly improving. In essence, they are frequently employing various kinds of nonsubstantiated talking points to either sell their snake-oil imitations or their largely smoke and mirror vaporware.

Sure, you might buy into the various marketing and/or talking points of a variety of shitcoins or even mainstream media that frequently spouts out similar misleading nonsense, but none of the shitcoins really have anything to offer in terms of solid fundamentals - except for what they might be merely copying in bitcoin and proclaiming to be doing it better, blah blah blah.

Bitcoin's paradigm shifting invention went into place in early 2009, and largely it's first 4-5 years were without any meaningful attempts at competition at all (meaning hardly any shitcoins were around), so bitcoin had sometime to develop without much attention to it and to take root, and the innovations of bitcoin is not really its technology, but instead the solid design of its sound money that of course is facilitated by a kind of technological innovation that has never been accomplished in previous times.

Of course, bitcoin's innovation was not exactly creating any specific technology but combining various existing technologies in such a way that had never been attempted previously, and proof of work and difficulty adjustments every couple of weeks is powerful as fuck when it is combined, and that is why bitcoin surpasses any coin in terms of its hash power, which largely means that miners are decentrally incentivized to work on bitcoin, and any person can run a node too, to verify the whole fucking blockchain -which really means that the users are in charge, and that was tested in 2017 with the attempted take overs that failed and made bitcoins stronger and to show that the users are in charge.. and it cannot be taken over by even powerful groups..

No other coin even comes close to bitcoin's level of decentralization, hashing power and immutability - even though they poo poo bitcoin, but bitcoin is more powerful than gold in terms of its sound moneyness, including but not limited to scarcity, verifiability, portability, divisibility, and the ability to self-custody with little to no costs or abilities for anyone to stop you.. .or seize it (especially if they are not sure whether you have any)..

So, bitcoin is more powerful than gold, but bitcoin only has about 1/50th the market cap value of gold, which shows that bitcoin continues to have a lot of upside potential, and sure you might not believe that bitcoin can gain another 50x, but it likely will absent some kind of major snafu... even well we cannot really know with any kind of accuracy how long it will take for bitcoin's market cap to reach and surpass gold... but another thing to attempt to understand is the power of the various currently credible bitcoin price prediction models that are largely a combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

I am not describing those three BTC price prediction models in any kind of detail.. (I am merely naming them), but they are very powerful in themselves and have a decent amount of empirical data and logic to back them up, even if you do not know or understand what they mean or I mean by saying that they are convincing. Many people do not understand what those models mean, either, and that is part of the reason why bitcoin remains in a currently good value proposition with less than 1% world adoption and more and more people coming to understand bitcoin in the coming years and to find out that it is quite likely that the price prediction models are quite accurate regarding the likely ongoing gravitation of value into bitcoin in the coming years.. maybe it takes 10 years, and maybe it takes 50 years, but the value flow is likely inevitable absent some kind of major breakage..

Anyhow, bitcoin is talked down a lot because either others are threatened by it or they are pumping some other bullshit, but there is a lot of power in bitcoin's simplicity and its ability to be verified by anyone willing to run a node (which is pretty inexpensive given the power of it).

Sure, it is nice, Knight.of.Logos, that you may be willing to keep an open mind and attempt to explore what is bitcoin as compared with other cryptos.

Here is a more or less beginner level bitcoin podcast, even though Guy Swan, the podcast narrator, does sometimes speak in terms of more advanced ideas..

Read_425 - If You Only Read One Thing Before Buying Bitcoin… [Sylvain Saurel]
August 4, 2020


[img=200x200]https://overcast.fm/art/full/811644?6[/img]

Guy Swan's podcast, bitcoin audible, reads a lot of great bitcoin articles, so he has a series of a lot of great articles that he has read over the years, and frequently comments on them, too... I don't always agree with everything that he says, but he generally is a genuine guy with a goal of sharing mostly bitcoin-focused information.. and making sure to bash on the shitcoins, which any real bitcoin-focused guy (or person) needs to do on a regular basis... ... ;)

One last point. Your seemingly distraction by supposed ethereum benefits seems to be distracted by get rich quick ideas, and I am not saying that you might not get lucky,. but you also might get screwed.. because who knows about how much that piece of shit can be pumped.

Guys get distracted into wanting to get rich quick, and really probably there is nothing wrong with that, as long as their plan ends up working out. In my thinking there is a difference between investing and gambling - and my approach is investing which is personally tailored and attempts to account for my cashflow, my various investments, my view of bitcoin (or any other crypto in your case) as compared with other possible investments, my risk tolerance, my timeline, and my time, skills and abilities to plan my strategies, learn from my strategies and tweak my strategies and allocations from time to time, including the extent to which I incorporate trading into that.

There is usually not a quick road to building wealth, even if you have some lucky breaks along the way. In other words, it tends to take a decently long time to really figure out your own situation in accordance with the above factors that I have described above and to build the size of your investment portfolio through years.. and yeah, if you have some good or lucky investments, then you will be able to add more value to your total investment portfolio and earn more money by having had built more money into your investment portfolio.

Edit: I did make a few changes above to flesh out a few of my rambling ideas a bit better, and I also was beginning to think that if we are mostly getting into bitcoin, as a topic, then we may want to move our discussion over to the bitcoin thread .

I did cross reference this post in the bitcoin thread.
 
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Did you just say that ETH is more anti-establishment than BTC?



Do yourself a favor, see how long it takes to fully sync an ETH node. Or count the number of human beings (points of failure) that ETH depends on. Or the number of times ETH's inflation schedule has been modified. Or the millions of dollars printed for the pre-sale. Or ETH's total supply (hint: no one knows).

Hopefully we can spare you Genghis Khan's fate :laughter:

Difficulty bomb and buterin issued hard fork also come to mind.
 
Put simply, Bitcoin is king because:

1. "Immaculate Conception" i.e. Satoshi Nakamoto
2. Highest, widespread liquidity
3. Simplest, oldest code
4. Most hashrate
5. Best branding
6. First mover advantage

These facts are baked into the brand, all irrespective of price. No altcoin will ever reach BTC's dominance due to the reasons above.
Fair enough.

I can see why BTC is many people's favorite coin. Perhaps it will be the #1 crypto for the next 10, 20 years... but I would never say never. A lot can happen in even just a few years, let alone 10. I can't see any other coin overtaking BTC in terms of market cap in the next few years, but in the long term I am not so certain.

I doubt that I would be able to provide you any kind of snapshot ideas why bitcoin is the better investment, and of course, I agree with a lot of what redbeard said in his above posts (and his other bitcoin-related posts).

Over the years, I have made a variety of more long-winded posts in several of the 443 pages of the Bitcoin thread, that largely show that I have been pretty consistently following and posting bullishly about bitcoin since late 2013, when I first started investing into it.... Of course, through the past 6.5 (nearly 7) years, I have adjusted some of my bitcoin investment strategies and my bitcoin-related ideas.

Over the years, there has been a lot of marketing money that comes out of the various shitcoin camps that are attempting to spin themselves as if they were either some kind of bitcoin peer (equivalent), or as if there is something wrong with bitcoin that they are purportedly improving. In essence, they are frequently employing various kinds of nonsubstantiated talking points to either sell their snake-oil imitations or their largely smoke and mirror vaporware.
Those are good points, some things I didn't really know about since I did not really start following crypto much until 2015 or 2016. That post would make a great sales pitch if it was a bit condensed. I agree that at least 95% of coins are undoubtedly shitcoins. I would not call Ethereum a shitcoin though, as it is being developed by a large team (nothing else in crypto comes close), with a lot of corporate recognition, partnerships, and it is very innovative as far as being a platform for decentralized apps and smart contracts. It has a lot of momentum, and of course it probably will hit roadblocks along the way, but I think it has a great chance of become extremely successful and having 5-10x gains in the next 5+ years (which is how long I plan on holding my investments). By the way, I am not doing this as a "get rich quick" thing, I've always planned on holding for several years and have been holding since mid- 2017.

Just some points I wanted to make:

(1) If Ethereum is successful, it does not mean Bitcoin will have to fail; or vice-versa. I think both will do well in the long-term compared to the current prices. I wasn't trying to talk trash about Bitcoin before, though looking back I think that it looks that way... I just wanted to state that I find other projects more interesting. I don't have a crystal ball so I don't really know what will be the best investment long-term, but I don't think any of us have that knowledge. I do think that 95% of cryptos are crap, but a small number will succeed, both BTC and ETH being two of those few.

(2) Tech is very important, but in terms of investing, psychology is also important. I know many people personally who haven't invested in Bitcoin because they want to own at least 1 of the crypto, and it is hard for most of my friends to invest $11-$12k at one time. In fact, I've met more people who have Litecoin that Bitcoin in person, which I know is obviously not representative of the general population, but it suggests that people like the underdogs, the "next big thing," as well as wanting to own at least "one of something." I factor things like this into investing. I also know certain people's personalities will draw them to Bitcoin, and since not all people think the same way, I believe that there will be multiple long-term winners with cryptos. I like to diversify for these reasons.

(3) Yes, I think there are negatives with Ethereum and risks, but there seems to be a lot of innovation, positivity, and momentum with it. Bitcoin is probably the most "stable" of the stable coins but for BTC to double, it would need about 215 billion to go into it, whereas Ethereum would only need 43 billion. Based on the momentum and trends, I definitely see Ethereum doubling sooner than Bitcoin however I think there is more risk since the innovation can go wrong.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
(1) If Ethereum is successful, it does not mean Bitcoin will have to fail; or vice-versa. I think both will do well in the long-term compared to the current prices. I wasn't trying to talk trash about Bitcoin before, though looking back I think that it looks that way... I just wanted to state that I find other projects more interesting. I don't have a crystal ball so I don't really know what will be the best investment long-term, but I don't think any of us have that knowledge. I do think that 95% of cryptos are crap, but a small number will succeed, both BTC and ETH being two of those few.
Wrong, it should be clear to you that money is winner-takes-all. If you're American, do you hold your savings in euros? In yen? No. All of your money is in USD.
 
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