Crypto lounge thread

BAT - this is one of the most stable coins, and I feel, most undervalued given it's one of the few coins with a real economy. It's never had a heavy pump and moves up and down a lot slower than others. Gains: 1X, maybe 2 at a push.

I've been getting into crypto via BAT Brave Browser Trying to learn my way around the whole crypto scene.
 

JohnKreese

Pelican
Wrong, it should be clear to you that money is winner-takes-all. If you're American, do you hold your savings in euros? In yen? No. All of your money is in USD.

 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Had to cut this response post into three parts because of the 10,000 characters limit of this new RVF software... gosh 10,000 characters is NOT a lot.

Part 1

Fair enough.

I can see why BTC is many people's favorite coin. Perhaps it will be the #1 crypto for the next 10, 20 years... but I would never say never. A lot can happen in even just a few years, let alone 10. I can't see any other coin overtaking BTC in terms of market cap in the next few years, but in the long term I am not so certain.

Even though we are investing for the longer term in bitcoin, so 4 years plus, and even longer in terms of how we should be initially considering our entrance into our BTC investment, we should at least be attempting to monitor the investment on a quarterly or couple times a year, just to tentatively see where it is at. Of course, we can also choose to be a bit more involved into continued research and monitoriing of how bitcoin is doing overall, whether there are any meaningful fundamental changes. We should always retain complete authority over our own investment to be able to reallocate, if needed, or even to either completely get out of bitcoin and/or move to another project, if that seems warranted based on changed circumstances, if any.

In other words, I find it to be a BIG SO FUCKING what to be proclaiming what bitcoin might be 10, 20, 50 or even 100 years down the road. Sure, those ideas are important in the BIG planning picture, but they should not be major considerations regarding whether to get into bitcoin or not or even the allocations into BTC that are based more about where it is currently at as compared with other potential asset classes (whether we are referring to other cryptos or to the various places that guys might put money into traditional investment asset classes).


Those are good points, some things I didn't really know about since I did not really start following crypto much until 2015 or 2016. That post would make a great sales pitch if it was a bit condensed.

Of course, you recognize that I was largely just providing an off-the-cuff overview of some things that come to mind about what differentiates bitcoin.. and sure, I might not have presented some of the ideas as good as I might have if I edited it a few times and sure I might have NOT really thought about some ideas that are also important in attempting to differentiate bitcoin.

I agree that at least 95% of coins are undoubtedly shitcoins. I would not call Ethereum a shitcoin though, as it is being developed by a large team (nothing else in crypto comes close), with a lot of corporate recognition, partnerships, and it is very innovative as far as being a platform for decentralized apps and smart contracts.

I appreciate that you have a bit of a hard-on for ethereum, and I could see that in your earlier posts. Sure, I will concede that ethereum has done a lot of extensive marketing and attempted to work on various networking effects including trying to make sure money is flowing through it in a variety of regards, so sure, there is some value in the various network effects that have developed through ethereum and some of the passion of various users for various ethereum projects - which causes more network effects.. so sure, none of us should really be poo pooing the fact that the creation of various network effects likely causes more difficulties in either killing the project or that it is going to go away any time soon or even that it might not be able to continue to experience large and sustained ongoing pumpenings.

Surely, I have not been proclaiming that you might not be able to become rich as fuck through some ethereum investing, so don't get me wrong in that direction, but I still am going to ongoingly assert that it is a shitcoin and a shit project and built upon smoke and mirrors and the fantasies of 14-year old snot noses.. whether we are talking about BIG named snot-noses in suits or whatever. It could take 10 or 20 years for a lot of this to play out, or even longer, or there could be various crashes of the house of cards that brings it down much sooner.

Redbeard already highlighted the main concerns about just the ability run a node and verify is not available for regular people, but also there are issues with the whole god-damned thing being clogged and admissions that Ethereum is just not working - except for a kind of appearance of decentralization through very central points of failure - and the fact that within a short time after its launch they have been talking about the need to move to proof of stake.. which is also a whole bunch of bullshit (like an intended Ponzi scheme with its own incentive problems) and sharding (whatever the fuck that is?) if they can pull it off, so they are like a project that exists in an admitted broken state, and they are supposedly moving to some further unclear and complicated new kind of system that may or may not happen, while bitcoin already works as is.... no changes are needed to make it work, even though there are some proposed changes in bitcoin to make aspects of it a bit better, such as tap root, Schnor signatures and a few other matters, but bitcoin does not need any of these changes in order to continue to deliver in the here and now and into the future, even if its software development were to ossify in its current state.


It has a lot of momentum, and of course it probably will hit roadblocks along the way, but I think it has a great chance of become extremely successful

Yes. Ethereum does currently have a decent number of networking effects. Yes, roadblocks are inevitable in ethereum because it does not even have a currently working product, so they fantasize about what their future product is going to be, and so sure, you can invest in the possibility of a future product that actually works.

and having 5-10x gains in the next 5+ years (which is how long I plan on holding my investments).

Sure, it might get 5-10x gains, and it could also get 100x or more gains in the same period. I could go down in value also, so there is a need to consider both directions. I don't disagree about the possibility of UP based on ongoing house of cards sustainability, and sure there have been some pretty damned solid braces put into some aspects of the house of cards structure. They bolted in some of the cards at the base level and at various points in the house of cards structure.. So it may or may not hold and you may or may not make money... .

By the way, I am not doing this as a "get rich quick" thing, I've always planned on holding for several years and have been holding since mid- 2017.

Fair enough.

You had seen that Ethereum had appreciated more than BTC in late 2017, and then it corrected more than BTC too, and in recent times there is a bit of a blip. Remember the 2017 flippening that almost happened and Ethereum reached .11BTC or something like that, and then over the years, it devalued against BTC down to .02BTC, and recently ethereum went up to about .035 BTC, so there has been some recent hype and even some of the defi (phoney baloney that is getting a lot of recent excitement) and even projections that there might be another flippening attempt in the coming years... perhaps? Perhaps? and Perhaps NOT, too. Still seems like smoke and mirrors fantasies on paper to me, but hey, to each their own.


Just some points I wanted to make:

(1) If Ethereum is successful, it does not mean Bitcoin will have to fail; or vice-versa.

That's true. But if Bitcoin is not successful, ethereum would not be able to stand up on its own.

In other words, the ability for ethereum or any of the other shitcoins to pump at all, they are dependent upon bitcoin having some success and some security in order that they can pump their shits in the secure atmosphere that bitcoin has created.

You can believe that ethereum is independent of bitcoin.. but that would be a fantasy in my thinking about the situation. Bitcoin can surely survive without those various shitcoin scams, but bitcoin it seems likely also that bitcoin does benefit in a variety of ways (perhaps?) from the money that comes into the space through various shitcoins and maybe later down the road that value ends up flowing into bitcoin. Don't get me wrong, I am not buying into the bullshit propaganda that bitcoin would not be where it is.. blah blah blah... without the various shitcoins.. because that is largely nonsense attempts to either describe shitcoins as valuable or peers of bitcoin when they are NOT even close... so far.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Part 2

I think both will do well in the long-term compared to the current prices. I wasn't trying to talk trash about Bitcoin before, though looking back I think that it looks that way...

Yes.. I can kind of see that you have some baseless shit-talking inclinations in your way of looking at bitcoin, which causes me to believe that you don't really know what you are talking about when it comes to your really assessing the value that bitcoin brings to the space in terms of providing the security that a variety of shitcoins can be pumped and not really suffering ramifications of getting shut down or thrown into jail if bitcoin were not providing some blanket security for the variety of nonsense and scams that come through a lot of shitcoin projects (sure not all of them, but a lot of them play on nonsense assertions that they are somehow equivalent or better than bitcoin blah blah blah.... or presuming that bitcoin has some kind of defect.. blah blah blah.)

I just wanted to state that I find other projects more interesting.

I am not going to proclaim that there are not "interesting" projects out there. Does not mean that they are either going to have value in the end or that they are not just means to try to get people to invest their bitcoin into some nonsense that does not have much if any backing beyond looking good on paper. In other words, there are a lot of ways to get distracted into "interesting" projects, when the most interesting thing in the space is actually bitcoin... and sure some of the "interesting" aspects of the various shitshow might either get absorbed into bitcoin down the road or maybe even serve as a kind of second or third layer connected to bitcoin, and sure it could take 30 years or more for a lot of this to really clearly play out.. even if the message might be on the wall a lot sooner and even though multiple coins will still likely exist 100 or 200years into the future, with bitcoin continuing as king daddy.. where the value will likely continue to flow and to gravitate and with an ongoing ability to shift bitcoin value into another project if some other project proves to be more sound money than bitcoin.. or more solid in its security or some other reason to migrate form bitcoin to some potentially stronger project that ends up developing down the road, but that we currently do not have such a project that exists that is even close to bitcoin, even though some of the "interesting" projects are trying to see if they can build their networking effects to become a better bitcoin (in theory and on paper).. but no in actual reality or practice).

I don't have a crystal ball so I don't really know what will be the best investment long-term, but I don't think any of us have that knowledge.

As I mentioned above, you don't really need to know the future with any kind of precision. That would be ridiculous.

At best, any of us assign various future outcomes with a set of probabilities, and we view some outcomes to be more probable than others, we attempt to do the best with our assignment of probabilities, we attempt to invest in accordance with our probability assignments and we tweak our investments from time to time based on changes in our outlook about probability changes that we believe that we see.

So, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I dedicated a 6 month budget to my then intended investment plan/strategy, and I told myself that I would invest, study the matter and reassess towards the end of the 6 months. My investment target at that time was a minimum of 1 year, but ideally to stay into the investment at least 2 years, but that did not stop me from being able to reassess and to change my mind along the way, if I came to that conclusion, even though at the initial start of the investment, I felt decently enough putting in money that I was tentatively willing to lock up 1-2 years.

When the end of the 6 months came, sure things had happened in bitcoin, but I largely concluded that the fundamentals of BTC had not changed in any kind of way that was significant enough for me to change my then plan, so I largely authorized another 6 month budget to my BTC investment to largely extended my BTC investment plan another 6 months.

Anyhow, what I am suggesting is that at that time, I would have recommended that guys create a kind of 1-2 year investment time horizon for themselves in regards to BTC, and I believe that the BTC investment environment was not certain enough to seriously consider embarking on a longer time horizon, but as you notice, these days, I believe that 4 years or longer is a reasonable starting point for BTC - even while I accept that guys are going to need to tailor their BTC investment to their own situation, but I currently believe that there are somewhat objective situational circumstances now in BTC that allows for it to be a longer investment than it would have been in late 2013 and even through 2015, I would have had similar reservations in terms of how to consider the overall fundamentals of BTC.

I do think that 95% of cryptos are crap, but a small number will succeed, both BTC and ETH being two of those few.

Again, I consider ETH is not even close to being an equivalent consideration to BTC, but hey, you can arrive at any assessment that you like in terms of how you rate BTC as compared to ETH as compared to other cryptos as compared to any other investments that you might have in your overall investment portfolio.. that might also include some traditional investments such as real estate, equities, stocks, bonds, Precious metals or other allocations that you might have.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Part 3

(2) Tech is very important, but in terms of investing, psychology is also important.

There are a variety of fundamentals, and I already mentioned that sound money is a BTC attribute that is based on technicals, but the concept is sound money, not necessarily about the tech, even if the tech does help to achieve the fundamentals. Psychology can be marketing and momentum.. sure... and I am not sure how far that psychology and marketing will get you in terms of long term, but it could get some short term appreciation that does end up leading to longer term appreciation based on network effects that have been established by some levels of adoption.

I know many people personally who haven't invested in Bitcoin because they want to own at least 1 of the crypto, and it is hard for most of my friends to invest $11-$12k at one time. In fact, I've met more people who have Litecoin that Bitcoin in person, which I know is obviously not representative of the general population, but it suggests that people like the underdogs, the "next big thing," as well as wanting to own at least "one of something." I factor things like this into investing.

Yes the unit bias considerations are really retarded, but I do understand that a lot of people do think about their investments in terms of those kinds of stupid-ass considerations that ultimately trick them into NOT understanding the difference between various investments based on dumb superficial assessments.. and sure you might get a certain amount of pumpening of projects based on those unit bias nonsense considerations including the belief that smaller market cap leads to more pumpemental potentials.. which are also lame-ass ways to invest and likely to cause you to not recognize actual value and what the product/projects are actually about.

I also know certain people's personalities will draw them to Bitcoin, and since not all people think the same way, I believe that there will be multiple long-term winners with cryptos. I like to diversify for these reasons.

Yes, there are decent number of people who misunderstand how to diversify or the reasons for diversification and they make all kinds of lame-ass mistakes based on those misunderstandings, too, but I doubt that you are engaging in very sound investment principles based on considering that there are a lot of dumb people, so you are going to invest out of anticipation regarding how dumb people are projected to invest. Does not seem like a great, sound or prudent way of investing to me. But to each their own.

(3) Yes, I think there are negatives with Ethereum and risks, but there seems to be a lot of innovation, positivity, and momentum with it.

Yes.. it has been propped up for 5 years, and sure it might continue to be propped up for another 5 years or longer.. but then it might crash too, especially if you recognize how little foundation is actually there... but sure, to each their own.. invest in ethereum as if there were actual foundation. That is your choice.

Bitcoin is probably the most "stable" of the stable coins

Well, there is some truth that bitcoin is the leader of a category, but it seems a bit mis-focused to be calling it a stable coin, even though I kind of understand what you are proclaiming.

but for BTC to double, it would need about 215 billion to go into it, whereas Ethereum would only need 43 billion.

Yes, of course, various coins or shit projects with lower market caps are going to be able to be pumped more easily. I personally don't find that as a very solid investment thesis for the long term, even though short term you can get some decent pumpenings out of the various low market cap projects and you can also maybe gamble a bit with some of your investment portfolio in order to play around with some of the lower market cap cryptos such as ethereum or some of the other shit projects, but personally, I still don't consider that to be a strong investment thesis - unless you might either believe that there are some actual fundamentals present (which you seem to believe in terms of ETH), and if you are merely playing with smaller portions of your portfolio.. and sure guys are going to come to different determinations regarding how much they might allocate to some seemingly risky projects.. they might decide 1% or they may even decide 80% or some other seemingly ridiculous amount, which may or may not work out in terms of how they play it, and my sense is that even if I might not get as much short term performance out of an asset, when I am looking at the long term, I am looking at both up and down potential, so I am factoring both sides into my assessment to determine my allocation choices.. and sure the allocations might change over time too, even though I don't really screw around too much these days, but I am not going to criticize guys who might be willing to play around with way greater percentages than me and they also might well have much longer timelines than me, too.. so even though I might consider their allocation to be a bit too risky or a bit too allocated in one direction, there are degrees to a lot of this.. and I find that a lot of purported "investors" gravitate towards all or nothing thinking in regards to their investments, which end up being a form of gambling rather than investing.. which tends to mold itself into a lifestyle choice that they keep repeating and never really getting anywhere even if they might have short periods of success.

Based on the momentum and trends, I definitely see Ethereum doubling sooner than Bitcoin however I think there is more risk since the innovation can go wrong.

Sure.. ethereum could continue to gain against bitcoin as it has done in the past few months, but like I mentioned above, ethereum was way the fuck down, too, in its relative value compared with bitcoin. So, yes, there does seem to be a lot of current hype about ethereum, like a bleep of life that had been waning.. but still, I am not sure if the current hype should cause a guy to really reallocate away from BTC and towards ethereum.


I just looked at the above ETH/BTC chart, and I had not realized that ETH had gotten to .1515 BTC-ish in June 2017. And, currently it is around .0335 BTC, but it was around .02 BTC in March 2020.. so there was a bit of a ETH/BTC price appreciation in the past several months, yet how clear would it be that such price appreciation is going to continue. Sure it could, but still I continue to believe that there is so many attack vectors or just problematic aspects of ETH that it makes it really difficult to justify much if any reallocation into it in terms of considering both directions and just foundational security/sound money principles that BTC brings to the space and the value investing thesis that really is the innovation of proof of work and bitcoin's continuation down the POW king daddy dominance that is built upon largely free market incentives to dominate that hashing power space.
 
@king of logos

Don't be discouraged by what the maximalists are saying. They have good points but yours are just as valid. It's important you bring your own thought process into this, I especially liked your comment about psychology. You are actually pretty conservative with your ETH predictions. I think there's a good chance it 20x or more because of defi. If ETH cap simply keeps being 20% of BTC you can only imagine what the price will be.
 
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@king of logos

Don't be discouraged by what the maximalists are saying. They have good points but yours are just as valid. It's important you bring your own thought process into this, I especially liked your comment about psychology. You are actually pretty conservative with your ETH predictions. I think there's a good chance it 20x or more because of defi. If ETH cap simply keeps being 20% of BTC you can only imagine what the price will be.
This is a learning experience. I am definitely open to the fact that in some ways maybe I had been overlooking or undervaluing Bitcoin, even though I do acknowledge its historical significance. However, some of the Bitcoin maximalists are extremely tribalist (even more than other crypto investors) and it is a turn off. I understand that people like to "put their mouth where there money is," and the reasons for being passionate about investments, but I try to constantly learn and never assume that I have all the answers. That is why I like to learn from people even if I disagree with them at first, and though I might not do a complete 180 of my position, if their argument is good, I will likely incorporate that into my growing knowledge. When people present Bitcoin's strengths without having to resort to putting down other cryptos, that argument is much more persuasive in my eyes.

I am more excited about blockchain as a technology than anything else, and it seems probable that there will definitely be some hugely successful projects, both of those that are known now and those that are yet to be developed/become popular.
 
Hey guys, '

Wanted to share with you a microcap I've been eyeing.

Symbol: $KDA

Coinmarketcap rank: 2164

"Kadena's blockchain enables enterprises across industries to efficiently transact and share data in a decentralized manner. Kadena's technology aims to solve the challenges with current generation blockchains -- issues such as speed, scalability, and security."

So the reasons this token has caught my attention:

"Kadena is the first startup to come out of JP Morgan’s Blockchain Center for Excellence, a development project started in 2018. Last year, JP Morgan announced it had created its own cash-backed cryptocurrency called JPM Coin, which it plans to pilot with institutional clients for international funds transfers."--->JP Morgan ties.

>Trading under ICO price: .75 is current price---->ICO price: $1.00 https://cryptorank.io/ico/kadena#:~:text=Kadena ICO was conducted from,ICO token price was $ 1.00.

>Kadena is undiscovered and few content creators are talking about it: https://medium.com/@mastershiller/kadena-generational-wealth-building-opportunity-ba97e086d3c3

>If you scroll to the bottom of the article above there is some information on Kadena allocating resources to integrate with Coinbase API.....obviously speculation, however it bodes well.

>PoW

>Integration with Chainlink (not all that surprising)

I believe this has the potential for multiples. Just wanted to bring it to your guys' attention.
 
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JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
This is a learning experience. I am definitely open to the fact that in some ways maybe I had been overlooking or undervaluing Bitcoin, even though I do acknowledge its historical significance. However, some of the Bitcoin maximalists are extremely tribalist (even more than other crypto investors) and it is a turn off. I understand that people like to "put their mouth where there money is," and the reasons for being passionate about investments, but I try to constantly learn and never assume that I have all the answers. That is why I like to learn from people even if I disagree with them at first, and though I might not do a complete 180 of my position, if their argument is good, I will likely incorporate that into my growing knowledge.

I am definitely an advocate of incrementalist techniques and attempting to learn as we go... and usually, it is nt preferable to do a 180 in your technique because ultimately, you should be making sure that you are attempting to align your technique with your personal situation... but of course, if you come to a really BIG revelation that you are really 180 degrees off, then in those kind of rare circumstances it might be wise and prudent to make such a drastic change to your approach.. should be rare if you are already giving decent thoughts to your approach.

Of course, we only live one life, so there is always a bit of a gamble in terms of attempting to give various "opportunities" enough time to play themselves out, so there are possibilities that you are employing the right techniques but identifying some of the wrong asset classes or distributing them in NOT very good allocations - in terms of being aligned with your own personal situation, goals and objectives. So, yeah, we would not want 20 years to go by before we figure out that we really fucked up, and I find that to happen a lot of times with guys who are failing and refusing to invest because they speculate that everything is just going to work itself out, and there are a lot of guys like that... sad as it may be.. .who the fuck wants to get into their late 40s or older and realize that they have hardly built any financial capital in their life, and therefore they hardly have any options in terms of being able to slow down their work or to chose their work in the event that they still have to do it for another 10 or 20 years.

Many of us make various fuck ups along the way, but frequently we can still kind of make up for them if we are younger in life, but still should not mean that we are gambling too much because it tends to be very difficult to achieve sustainability if the gambling continues and is a bit too much risk taking on a regular basis.

Let's say if you are only in your early 20s, so you have a lot of advantages in terms of your timeline, but you might be very disadvantaged in terms of how much of an investment stash that you have already built up and/or your cashflow might be a bit limited, too, perhaps, so you might start to employ more risk that might even devolve into too much risk if you don't keep your gambling inclinations in check. Of course, it can become quite tempting to put way more money than you should into some risky investment because you had seen that others had made a lot of money from that asset, but then it may get down to either fundamentals about the asset or merely fundamentals in being able to get in and out of the asset in order to allow for the asset to work to your advantage in building your investment portfolio size rather than taking risks and either spinning your wheels or not really making progress in terms of building your investment portfolio size with the passage of time.

There is almost no way that guys are going to make similar decisions regarding either how much risk to allocate to any investment or to the various assets within their portfolio, how we view asset classes and even accurately determining how much cashflow we really have available to dedicate towards investing in one asset versus another or acting somewhat practically in our planning to know that we have enough cashflow to pay all of our bills, including if some emergency might come (like the car breaks down or some expenses that might be a bit out of the blue but within something should be prepared, just in case).


When people present Bitcoin's strengths without having to resort to putting down other cryptos, that argument is much more persuasive in my eyes.

I am more excited about blockchain as a technology than anything else, and it seems probable that there will definitely be some hugely successful projects, both of those that are known now and those that are yet to be developed/become popular.

Sometimes any of us can get worked up into making our arguments, and sometimes guys might take the arguments personally, even if they are meant to be about the substance. So, for example, I might say: "you are fucking crazy Knight.of.Logos" for having x, y or z opinion, and even though I use expletives to make my points, I might still be trying to criticize your arguments rather than you.. and of course, we do not always realize how solid our framework might be, whether we are referring to blockchain versus bitcoin or some other frame work about proof of work versus proof of stake, degree of decentralization and how it is achieved, networking effects of a project and if they are meaningful, software integrity, whether sound money or ease of payments are important (speed and cost), and various other sometimes seeming trade-off concepts that are discussed in the crypto space.
 
Could cross-reference this in one of the travel points/credit card threads. I just got approved for 5 new cards and need to do some manufactured spending. The 0% fee promotion is the perfect opportunity.

Be careful about using credit cards to buy crypto. Most run the transaction as a cash advance, not a purchase, so you'll be socked with high interest and fees. Before you run any of your new cards, make sure to call your bank first to confirm that they will be coded as "purchases", or have them reduce your cash advance credit line to zero, such that any attempt at a cash advance coded transaction will automatically be declined. Have you found any credit card that codes crypto as purchases, not cash advances? If so, I'd like to know. Thanks!
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Be careful about using credit cards to buy crypto. Most run the transaction as a cash advance, not a purchase, so you'll be socked with high interest and fees. Before you run any of your new cards, make sure to call your bank first to confirm that they will be coded as "purchases", or have them reduce your cash advance credit line to zero, such that any attempt at a cash advance coded transaction will automatically be declined. Have you found any credit card that codes crypto as purchases, not cash advances? If so, I'd like to know. Thanks!

One risk is buying shitcoins and not bitcoin and another risk is using your credit card to make such purchases and getting a cash advance assignment to the transaction.. like john mentioned.

I think that you are correct John... In the past year or so, most of the credit cards have transitioned into treating all crypto purchases as cash advances.. yet there might be some rare credit cards that do not treat it like that (at least for now).

One decent way of getting started with bitcoin is to use something like swanbicoin.com... You can DCA or just make regular purchases, and once you get bitcoin, you can buy other cryptos with that..... So, far Swan does not have services for selling your bitcoin into fiat, so you would need some other services for that.. to the extent that you want to be able to sell. Actually, I do recommend that any guy getting into crypto, whether bitcoin or some shitcoin, they should figure out ways that they are able to get in and out of the investment, and usually it is good to have more than one avenue to be able to get out. If there is only one way to get out of the investment, then that shows a possible sign that the asset is not very liquid and might not be a good investment (except "on paper").

Although swanbitcoin is bitcoin only, but you can transfer your bitcoins to your own wallet or to another address if you want (which gives it some advantages over something like Robinhood), but maybe not as much flexibility as something like square app, gemini or even coinbase (which is a service that I am attempting to minimize my recommendation of guys getting too involved with coinbase). Anyhow, no matter how you get your bitcoin, if you have the ability to transfer then to your own private address, then you have quite a bit more autonomy over your coins including being able to transact directly with anyone else, if you so choose, without having any third party intermediary that might lock you or block you, and surely once you have your BTC in your own private address, you also can use them however you want, even if it were to be so dumb as to invest in shitcoins... :laughter:
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
This pump is following a similar pattern to that of 2017.

That is, there is a general trend of coins being pumped, with the higher market caps first, and then cascading down.

In the last two weeks I've bought maybe 10-15 coins based on them not getting pumped anywhere near as much as the others. In the last week or so that has been EOS, BAT, BTT.

The only ones that received little attention that I have avoided have all been pumped today. Coins like LTC, Dash and NEO, which I consider to be too much clones of other projects.



I posted in another fin thread recently that I though the price would go down before the recent pump. But there was one thing that made me a bit bullish, which is we have the same candle and MACD pattern as from the early 2017 pump.



The MACD looked like it was going red on 1w. But then it reversed twice. It's just done one.

So the main indicator I was looking for was the 3d Bollinger bands, which was squeezing very tight.



And when that happens the price almost always moves heavily in the direction of whichever way it pops. So I bought more.

There has just been another squeeze up on 1d Bollinger bands:



If it follows the same pattern we will see a wave up to about $16K, about $22K and then towards $50K; with a market cap of somewhere in the region of $1.5 trillion.

My strategy is:

1) hold until parabolic, in excess of 90 RSI on 1w
2) hold until the stock markets crashes and follow the direction of the crypto market from there

Any tips for low-cap coins?
 
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People irl are coming out of nowhere asking me what coins to get into. I think this is a good sign 2017 is around the corner. BTC dominance is below 60%. What i am looking for now is the price to go above 20k and close weekly and monthly candles. After that I think everything will moon.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
People irl are coming out of nowhere asking me what coins to get into. I think this is a good sign 2017 is around the corner. BTC dominance is below 60%. What i am looking for now is the price to go above 20k and close weekly and monthly candles. After that I think everything will moon.

Could take the whole rest of the year for BTC to get above $20k. I expect some resistance in the $17,250 arena.. but once BTC price gets solidly above $17,250, then likely there should not be too much resistance until about $23,500-ish...

Even though I do not invest into shitcoins, you are likely correct that there is going to be some kind of shitcoin season, but which ones might be another question. Probably so many folks are just passionate to pump shitcoins, they do not even care which ones might have value in order to pump them.. including that Ethereum cannot even have success in its attempt to test out its hypothetical move to ETH 2.0, which is likely a fiction any how for a broken scam coin facilitator.. but if people want to pump, and people want to build scams on top of ethereum, there are probably decent chances that money can be made - and the new buzz phenomenon is defi and yield farming, which is largely a kind of algorithmic ponzi scheme that is facilitated through ethereum.. So, we will see how those play out including whether guys believe that they can make money through those complicated smoke and mirror products and be able to get out of their investment before it crashes.
 
Even if btc reaches 20k by end of year that's still really early considering I was expecting it around mid to late 2021. Alt coins are already having their insane 40-50% pumps. People take profits in BTC and its price goes up, back and forth.

The new craze seems to be Defi or decentralised finance via smart contracts. I think this is a pretty good meme to carry crypto prices to the next level.

One of the coins recommended to me by one of our forum members, RSR, is doing pretty well and I think will continue to do well in 2021. It's just a token that backs a stable coin but one of it's financial backers is Peter Thiel. It was released in late May this year so there aren't any bag holders to keep the price down. If Bitcoin can cross 20k and this coin can stay in the top 70 of ccc i can see it going to $0.20 and even $1 if btc hits 100k.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Even if btc reaches 20k by end of year that's still really early considering I was expecting it around mid to late 2021.

I don't know about that, burner. Sure, there are a lot of ways that you can look at the matter, but even if we are merely looking at some kind of 4-year fractal as our attempted BTC price prediction model, on the four year fractal model, we are currently in the midst of 2016, so you recall that at the end of 2016, the previous ATH of $1,163 was just getting broken through at that point, so the supra ATH did not really meaningfully unfold in BTC until after April or so 2017.

I doubt that I am so naive as to suggest that these kinds of four year fractal waves are going to play out exactly alike, but they are seeming to play out pretty damned close, at least so far, and where we are at right now. I don't make those charts myself, but I have seen plenty of them, and I can search one down if you believe that we need some kind of visual reference for whether we might be "on schedule," "ahead of schedule" or whatever.

In any event, mid to late 2021 would be a potential top of the run, not merely just going through the previous ATH.. but sure, instead of having one blow off top as in something similar to 2017, we could end up experiencing two blow off tops, similar to 2013. Sure, maybe the extremes would not be as much, but still the idea of two blow off tops is NOT really outside of the realm of possibilities.. and then maybe the question would be do we get a moderate kind of blow off top that is only 1.5x (which would be $30k) or 2x ($40k) or 3x ($60k) of the previous ATH or do we get something that is a bit more outrageous that could be in the 20x ($400k) to 30x ($600k) territory... Of course, many folks are expecting something between $50k and $250k, and whether that happens or not or how it might happen (if it does), we are still looking at various blow off tops that go into 2021, and of course, we could even have some dragging out of the blow off top into 2022 - especially if it were to end up patterning something closer to a 2013 style of two blow off tops, rather than one.


Alt coins are already having their insane 40-50% pumps. People take profits in BTC and its price goes up, back and forth.

Yeah, but how exactly are you going to incorporate shitcoins into this? Sure they might have profits flowing into BTC, but that is not really guaranteed, either, is it?

They could create their own momentum or even end up crashing.. so it is not really easy to factor them in, even though it does seem as if we cannot really count them out in terms of having another season.. and personally, I never did proclaim that altcoins (or shitcoins) would not end up having at least one more season.. there is a lot of dumb money out there and there are a lot of difficulties for governments to really attempt to get the various scams and shenanigans under wraps in any kind of meaningful way...given where we are at right now and expectations for the coming months or even years (up to 2 years.. not sure if it is possible to go on much longer than 2 years, but you never know in this close to wild, wild west space).

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The new craze seems to be Defi or decentralised finance via smart contracts. I think this is a pretty good meme to carry crypto prices to the next level.

Cannot really argue against you regarding that.

One of the coins recommended to me by one of our forum members, RSR, is doing pretty well and I think will continue to do well in 2021. It's just a token that backs a stable coin but one of it's financial backers is Peter Thiel. It was released in late May this year so there aren't any bag holders to keep the price down. If Bitcoin can cross 20k and this coin can stay in the top 70 of ccc i can see it going to $0.20 and even $1 if btc hits 100k.

I will leave the analysis of that particular coin/project to you and other RVFers...
 
If I recall correctly it took roughly 6 months after previous halfing for btc to hit previous ATH of 1k price. If the same were to repeat again it'll be late Dec through January February. Then a 6-12 month bull run ending in a blow off top.

The altcoin market is good for bitcoin, I'm not sure how maximalists have convinced themselves of the opposite. Bitcoin is also good for altcoins and its speculators.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
The altcoin market is good for bitcoin, I'm not sure how maximalists have convinced themselves of the opposite. Bitcoin is also good for altcoins and its speculators.
My main qualm is that for every person that learns about BTC from altcoins, it seems there's two or three who got burned by alts and will never touch "crypto" again.

Then, imagine if every altcoin developer spent their time working on BTC scalability and privacy instead of building a penny stock. You can see that there's a serious opportunity cost to the popularity of altcoins.
 
Learns btc from altcoins? Isn't it backwards? I don't know of anyone that knew about an altcoin before bitcoin. Normally people learn about bitcoin but turn to alts because they believe they are "too late" for bitcoin. How many people have bought into bitcoin because of altcoins?

Even if bitcoin was gift wrapped perfect code for privacy, all the miners would still have to agree to it. It's not changing for a long time and maybe it doesn't have to for the time being.
 
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