Crypto lounge thread

Talus

Pigeon
@[email protected] If I can steer you off topic for a minute, I saw on previous posts your interest in Chainlink. And as I'm sitting here watching it go parabolic this past month I'm still lost on it. I understand it's use case as verifying real world data and transferring it to a blockchain, but is it actually doing anything right now that warrants it's high price? Is it a fully functioning blockchain? If it is, what use cases are being used on it? I was under the impression it is just an erc20 on ethereum that has no implementation yet. And if it is running, is it just running on top of ethereum, which we all know can't scale yet?
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Learns btc from altcoins? Isn't it backwards? I don't know of anyone that knew about an altcoin before bitcoin. Normally people learn about bitcoin but turn to alts because they believe they are "too late" for bitcoin. How many people have bought into bitcoin because of altcoins?
You're correct that people "learn" about Bitcoin first, but here's what really happens:
  1. Normie hears about bitcoin
  2. Does 5 minutes of research
  3. Gets sucked into altcoins because gainz, unit bias, "too late", marketing
  4. Gets rekt
  5. Never buys BTC
This story is all too common and leads to my disdain for alts.

Now imagine if they logged onto Coinbase and their only option was Bitcoin. They would only buy Bitcoin. They wouldn't waste their time with going bankrupt on alts.
Even if bitcoin was gift wrapped perfect code for privacy, all the miners would still have to agree to it. It's not changing for a long time and maybe it doesn't have to for the time being.
Why do miners have to agree? Look at Samourai Wallet. Privacy is happening on chain and there's nothing miners can do about it.
 

Talus

Pigeon
You're correct that people "learn" about Bitcoin first, but here's what really happens:
  1. Normie hears about bitcoin
  2. Does 5 minutes of research
  3. Gets sucked into altcoins because gainz, unit bias, "too late", marketing
  4. Gets rekt
  5. Never buys BTC
This story is all too common and leads to my disdain for alts.

Now imagine if they logged onto Coinbase and their only option was Bitcoin. They would only buy Bitcoin. They wouldn't waste their time with going bankrupt on alts.

Why do miners have to agree? Look at Samourai Wallet. Privacy is happening on chain and there's nothing miners can do about it.
Point number 3 seems to be correlating with the Chainlink phenomenon. Perhaps I have an ignorant grasp of it though. Point 4, to be determined.
 
@[email protected] If I can steer you off topic for a minute, I saw on previous posts your interest in Chainlink. And as I'm sitting here watching it go parabolic this past month I'm still lost on it. I understand it's use case as verifying real world data and transferring it to a blockchain, but is it actually doing anything right now that warrants it's high price? Is it a fully functioning blockchain? If it is, what use cases are being used on it? I was under the impression it is just an erc20 on ethereum that has no implementation yet. And if it is running, is it just running on top of ethereum, which we all know can't scale yet?
Not a blockchain. It's a decentralised oracle system where node operators can verify real data in the real world and pass that onto smart contracts. It's blockchain agnostic so it can be used on top of bitcoin, ethereum, whatever. Banks in Korea are using it now to verify currency prices in real time, a lot of potentialuse cases. Google and other corporations have shown interest. As far as decentralised oracles go it is looking like the only game in town right that everyone is using and I have to imagine the excitement has to do with it potentially having a role alongside decentralised finance. Imagine you lend someone money to do something a smart contract says. You want oracles, decentralised ones, otherwise everything is stuck in a closed blockchain system.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
If I recall correctly it took roughly 6 months after previous halfing for btc to hit previous ATH of 1k price. If the same were to repeat again it'll be late Dec through January February. Then a 6-12 month bull run ending in a blow off top.
Sure.. more or less. We are largely on the same page that there could be a bit of a time delay in regards to passing through the ATH and getting to a blow off top, and sure this could fall under a similar timeline or pattern as it did last time (in 2017) or it could follow a bit of a different pattern, something like 2013.

Another way to attempt to look at the BTC price rise is to attempt to figure out when we get into a ongoing price rise rather than looking at when we pass the ATH, and I would suggest that in 2017, the going from the bouncing off platform to the top was a bit more than a two year process (starting in October 2015 and ending in mid-December 2017), and in 2013, it largely took place in less than one year, even though there were two blow off tops contained therein (starting from February 2013 and ending early December 2013).

The dynamics at various points in the cycle can surely have effects on how the cycle might play out down the road, and just think about this current cycle. From April 2019 to June 2019, we experienced something that way the fuck too soon to fit within previous patterns, and that was a 3.5x price rise from $4,200-ish to $13,880 within three months. That was crazy, premature, but also accomplished some kinds of real world material signaling... whether intentional or not.

We cannot really presume either that BTC is going to have another period of going past our current ATH of $19,666 nor can we project with any kind of specifics how long it will take to get there nor how many peaks or large periods of correction will play out before we have finally reached some kind of blow off top, presuming that it comes - even while at the same time, many o f us who have been watching the bitcoin space for a decently long time can see a lot of factors that seem to be adding up favorably for BTC to give us even greater confidence than we likely experienced during earlier cycles (even though me, personally, I had only personally experienced one cycle so far within terms of going through the whole thing, even though I did get to experience the downside of the 2013 cycle (lucky me).


The altcoin market is good for bitcoin, I'm not sure how maximalists have convinced themselves of the opposite. Bitcoin is also good for altcoins and its speculators.
I don't know why you have to devolve into name calling, merely because someone like me had expressed a relatively strong opinion, including hostility towards shitcoins. You therefore want to take the argument to a higher (or would we say lower?) level, merely because we have differing perspectives in regards to shitcoins, and their role. I could give less than two shits about your various shitcoins, whether you want to get involved in them or even if you want to talk them up to some extent, but frequently the case with shitcoin talker-uppers is that they want to devolve into criticizing bitcoin and proclaiming various presumptuous deficiencies in bitcoin or exaggerating such deficiencies in order to hold out shitcoin 1, shitcoin 2, shitcoin 3 or some combination of shitcoins as purported solutions - when many times those shitcoins are just smoke and mirror paper products, and sure you can make money on them, so I am not arguing that you cannot make money on those crap products, but I largely refrain from getting involved with various shitcoins in any kind of way, except maybe point them out for the smoke and mirror deceptive scams that they usually are.

Another thing is that I doubt that there is hardly any truth to your proclamation trying to suggest that shitcoins are equally necessary for bitcoin to survive.. blah blah blah.. baloney. Another thing that shitcoin pumpers do is try to bring their shitcoin products up to some kind of close to equality as bitcoin. Ethereum does that and various other shitcoins will do that in combination with ethereum or some other shitcoin formula in order to proclaim their snake oil baloney as if they were equals, when they are not even close, even in combination. Sure combining a bunch of shit together does NOT exactly make the product better, especially when we are talking about security and foundational principles that should be attempting to build upon strength, and many of us should realize from the old expression that the strength of these products might be undermined by various vulnerabilities in weak links that nearly all of the shitcoins have.

One thing that I do notice with you, burner, is that you have been way more receptive to bitcoin in this cycle (even since about 2018/2019) than you were during the last bitcoin run (2016/217) when you were fighting the idea of bitcoin the whole time, and I am not sure if you lost any money getting caught up in the various bullshit pumpenings of shitcoins because they surely did crash harder once they started crashing, but I imagine that there still could be some various ways to have your overall investment portfolio to perform decently well, especially if you are measuring performance in terms of dollars and if you don't really mind wasting your time and energies pursuing a bunch of shit and partnering with shitcoin pumpers (because you "learn" skills and blah blah blah along the way).

I am not even proclaiming to be pure as snow myself, because I do consider that even a 10% to 20% allocation into shitcoins (relative to bitcoin) might be reasonable and prudent for some guys and make them feel like taking some risks, even though I personally could not see myself allocating much more than 5% into shitcoins, and frequently my shitcoins have historically remained in a kind of 1% to 2% arena (relative to bitcoin). Anyhow, in the end, guys certainly should be calculating these matters out for themselves in terms of how much they believe that they can invest into bitcoin (or other crypto), if any, and then figuring out strategies within their investment (trading/gambling) practices that they believe work for their situations. So, sure we are going to make differing choices, and sometimes we might also go to battle a bit (with our words) in terms of attempting to describe what we perceive to be the various trade-offs of differing strategies, including maybe sometimes pointing out what we believe to be short-sightedness of guys who differ in their investment approach, whether we are referring to BTC, traditional investments, shitcoins and/or some combination of those.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Not a blockchain. It's a decentralised oracle system where node operators can verify real data in the real world and pass that onto smart contracts. It's blockchain agnostic so it can be used on top of bitcoin, ethereum, whatever. Banks in Korea are using it now to verify currency prices in real time, a lot of potentialuse cases. Google and other corporations have shown interest. As far as decentralised oracles go it is looking like the only game in town right that everyone is using and I have to imagine the excitement has to do with it potentially having a role alongside decentralised finance. Imagine you lend someone money to do something a smart contract says. You want oracles, decentralised ones, otherwise everything is stuck in a closed blockchain system.
Here's an example of a decent explanatory post from you burner, and something like this might even cause me to look into the matter that you described more closely (in this case Chainlink).

Anyhow, I am NOT so closed off in terms of believing that all shitcoins are scams or are not bringing some value to the space.. and it is possible that chainlink could be bringing some value to the space, perhaps? But chainlink also might be being overly hyped in terms of its recent price movement. Time will tell, I suppose.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Point number 3 seems to be correlating with the Chainlink phenomenon. Perhaps I have an ignorant grasp of it though. Point 4, to be determined.
Today it's Chainlink. Last year it was EOS, before that ETH, before that XRP, before that Namecoin, the list goes on. Thousands of these pump and dumps out there.
 

Talus

Pigeon
@[email protected] Thanks for explanation. That's a more succinct summary than anything else I can find online about Chainlink. I still don't quite follow the technicals of how the oracle system is actually decentralized. From the chainlink website it looks like you run a chainlink oracle node ontop a blockchain node(ie. ethereum) and then begin fufilling user requests that are on that blockchain. And I guess that the request is cross-verified amongst several nodes on chainlink to ensure truthfulness? And the incentive to being truthful is to earn chainlink? I still don't quite get the whole process, but I can see it's potential. I feel like this type decentralized oracle system might face a lot of tough issues pretty quickly, and I can't say the actual value for Chainlink is close to what it is trading at right now($16.25). @redbeard 's claim of a pump n dump seems to be a more valid reflection of the current price.

Today it's Chainlink. Last year it was EOS, before that ETH, before that XRP, before that Namecoin, the list goes on. Thousands of these pump and dumps out there.
All valid examples. I personally lost a lot of my intial Bitcoin investment during the last bullrun toying around with altcoins I thought would be the future. So when it comes to store of value, which is my main priority, nothing compares to Bitcoin. But don't you think there is room for other use cases in the ecosystem?
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
All valid examples. I personally lost a lot of my intial Bitcoin investment during the last bullrun toying around with altcoins I thought would be the future. So when it comes to store of value, which is my main priority, nothing compares to Bitcoin. But don't you think there is room for other use cases in the ecosystem?
No. Money is winner-takes-all.

Let's imagine there is some...alt-currency you want to use for some specific purpose. Do you put 100% of your life savings into it? No. It's likely you'll convert only what you want to spend. And, that you'll only convert it at the moment you need it. Anything that's left over would be traded back to the reserve currency.
 

Talus

Pigeon
No. Money is winner-takes-all.

Let's imagine there is some...alt-currency you want to use for some specific purpose. Do you put 100% of your life savings into it? No. It's likely you'll convert only what you want to spend. And, that you'll only convert it at the moment you need it. Anything that's left over would be traded back to the reserve currency.
You just tripped me out with that response.. That's a pretty valid point. And now that I'm mulling it around in my head, one could argue that Bitcoin has already become the only world reserve currency, and fiat has already become just another altcoin. Ugh... I'm not sure how to feel about that type of totality blanketing the whole world.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
No. Money is winner-takes-all.

Let's imagine there is some...alt-currency you want to use for some specific purpose. Do you put 100% of your life savings into it? No. It's likely you'll convert only what you want to spend. And, that you'll only convert it at the moment you need it. Anything that's left over would be traded back to the reserve currency.
Whoaza!!!!!

redbeard is even more of a strict constructionist than me. :laughter:

Not easy to find.

Probably, you (redbeard) and I are pretty close to the same on this topic because Gresham's law is surely going to incentivize the spending of less valuable assets and/or currencies before spending the more valuable one(s) - theorizing that currently bitcoin is the frontrunner strong currency by a long shot...

So, overall, I agree with you, redbeard, that in the longer run the value is going to gravitate into bitcoin, but I also theorize that there are a number of inefficiencies in the market (world) that might cause something like 90% gravitation into the most valuable asset rather than 100%... but hey, it could take 200 years or longer for a lot of this value gravitation to play out... and I would be lucky as fuck to still be breathing in 50 years, so there would be few chances that I would be even close to seeing this kind of majority or dominant value gravitation dynamic play out in a kind of conclusive way in my lifetime..

I doubt that even you, redbeard, would be theorizing that all value would gravitate into bitcoin in any kind of timeframe that would be less than 50 years.... so anyhow, maybe what I am attempting to suggest would be that there can be a lot of scams, false flags, snake oil products, and ambiguously value assessment products for 150 years or more, so some guys are going to be making money hands over fists off those other less valuable products, even though I am NOT likely to even touch those kinds of products for investment purposes (absent some kind of possible credible claim that they have some kind of value that is close to bitcoin - of course, for liquidity purposes, somtimes guys are likely to be holding value in less valuable assets/ money, but you already mentioned that part of the dynamics.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
You just tripped me out with that response.. That's a pretty valid point. And now that I'm mulling it around in my head, one could argue that Bitcoin has already become the only world reserve currency, and fiat has already become just another altcoin. Ugh... I'm not sure how to feel about that type of totality blanketing the whole world.
The example I forgot to give is exactly the example ETH-heads use: oil. You drive a car, right? You use gasoline, right? Do you store barrels of crude petroleum at your house? Of course not. You'd rather buy market price for when you have to use it.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Whoaza!!!!!

redbeard is even more of a strict constructionist than me. :laughter:

Not easy to find.

Probably, you (redbeard) and I are pretty close to the same on this topic because Gresham's law is surely going to incentivize the spending of less valuable assets and/or currencies before spending the more valuable one(s) - theorizing that currently bitcoin is the frontrunner strong currency by a long shot...

So, overall, I agree with you, redbeard, that in the longer run the value is going to gravitate into bitcoin, but I also theorize that there are a number of inefficiencies in the market (world) that might cause something like 90% gravitation into the most valuable asset rather than 100%... but hey, it could take 200 years or longer for a lot of this value gravitation to play out... and I would be lucky as fuck to still be breathing in 50 years, so there would be few chances that I would be even close to seeing this kind of majority or dominant value gravitation dynamic play out in a kind of conclusive way in my lifetime..

I doubt that even you, redbeard, would be theorizing that all value would gravitate into bitcoin in any kind of timeframe that would be less than 50 years.... so anyhow, maybe what I am attempting to suggest would be that there can be a lot of scams, false flags, snake oil products, and ambiguously value assessment products for 150 years or more, so some guys are going to be making money hands over fists off those other less valuable products, even though I am NOT likely to even touch those kinds of products for investment purposes (absent some kind of possible credible claim that they have some kind of value that is close to bitcoin - of course, for liquidity purposes, somtimes guys are likely to be holding value in less valuable assets/ money, but you already mentioned that part of the dynamics.
Thankfully we agree that time frame could (and probably will) be much longer than we expect.

However it's important to remember there are two aspects to investing: fundamentals and technicals. When it comes to fundamental debates, like we're having here, Bitcoin is the clear winner. However in the short term, we might be wrong. That's where technicals come in. Right now, $LINK's chart probably looks much more bullish than $BTC's. That does NOT mean it's a better coin. It's important to make this distinction.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Thankfully we agree that time frame could (and probably will) be much longer than we expect.

However it's important to remember there are two aspects to investing: fundamentals and technicals. When it comes to fundamental debates, like we're having here, Bitcoin is the clear winner. However in the short term, we might be wrong. That's where technicals come in. Right now, $LINK's chart probably looks much more bullish than $BTC's. That does NOT mean it's a better coin. It's important to make this distinction.
I am not sure what you mean by short term versus long term... because some of the scams, snakeoil and phoney baloney could play out for 10 or 20 years or longer.

And, some guys might make a killing in their investment, so I am not saying that it is necessarily a bad thing for guys who might either play the situation well or figure out how to play the situation to their advantage.

Take Ethereum... Lot's of people considered ethereum a scam from the start, but it was able to accomplish certain network effects and a following and even serving as a platform for further scams whether ERC20s and ICOs, and then moving into Defi and yield farming. Some of the scams and the money flowing int and through a product could perpetuate its smoke and mirrors for a very, very long time.

We are not really saying anything different, so I suppose I just felt an irresistible urge to blurt out some further amazement regarding how crappy products can really be propelled for decently long timeframes (while founders are making a killing and even average Joes are making a killing too).. which may well go way beyond some kind of "short-term" currently short-lived product like Chainlink (short life, so far).. and so building scams upon scams upon scams in a kind of perpetual motion machine way can cause technicals to appear bullish but to have misleading factors in regards to actual fundamentals that cause fundamentals to appear strong even thought the fundamentals are a bunch of smoke and mirrors (and even a house of cards) that could take 10 years 20 years or some ridiculously long amount of time to play out.
 

Tactician

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I think article does a pretty good job of explaining ChainLink: https://blog.goodaudience.com/chainlink-the-missing-piece-to-the-god-protocol-fd455dde92ab

Oracles have nodes stake collateral as an incentive & insurance that they perform their duties accurately. As such, ChainLink's marketcap should have a minimum of the insurance staked across its nodes. As more Oracle services & the importance of these services increases, more insurance and, thus, marketcap is required to meet client's demands for insurance as they use the network.

Edit: Hey, kind of unrelated, but have you guys seen this website: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
I figure we all hate Central Banks so it's a fun & short website to have a look at. I think the most shocking chart is this one:

 
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Redcrus

Pigeon
Is anyone here invested in SWAP or HEX2T? The returns over the last 12 weeks have been insane and the projects are fantastic, they will continue to grow. I've made some crazy profit on these :cool:
 
What Are Your Crypto Regrets?!!!!!!

My own is that I was first made aware of Bitcoin in the summer of 2010, by a friend who was on a technology email list with me. But as I took a look at the Bitcoin website, I did not get a sense of the big picture, because after all, only governments can make money! Lol I want to go back in time and slap myself! I will be on my death bed regretting my decision to not invest, way back then. When the price hit $100, I finally realized I had made a major mistake...

The next huge regret was with alt coins. I had a few thousand to invest, and I consulted with the friend who told me about Bitcoin, and who is extremely well educated. I wanted to invest in Ripple, but no, he advised me to consider Humanique. Well, that turned out to be a huge mistake! Lol Ripple over time exploded in value, as I suspected it would, while Humanique, marketed as the alt coin for the third world, simply imploded. I learned a painful lesson about thinking a person was good at investing, just because they had several advanced degrees and worked at a senior level in IT. I should have followed my own intuition and logic.

I have a FB/real world friend who was an early adopter of Bitcoin, and I see pictures of him traveling the world and living the good life, and I admit to feeling very jealous. But he was quite short and fat before his wealth, and he is now nearly morbidly obese. I suppose money does not erase all problems.

I did mining for awhile and enjoyed it, back around 2012. My miners were bought second hand, and already borderline obsolete. I mined around a thousand Emercoins before a Forbes online article caused mining farm owners to take notice, and then I went from a top ten miner of Emercoin, to around number five hundred! It was quite a fall. I would like to try mining again, more for the fun of it, than anything. And I could see my stepdaughters finding it an interesting activity.
 
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redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
My #1 regret is selling too early. AKA selling BTC before $250k per coin. A few years ago I over-leveraged myself and had way too much riding on Bitcoin's price, which forced me to sell off a ton of coin below today's price. If I had been more conservative, today I'd be much more well-off (and sane).
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Probably my greatest regrets would relate to taking better security measures in terms of taking more coins off of exchanges.. and surely I am not opposed to trading some coins - talking BTC here..

I did not get materially involved in any shitcoins, and so if there were some opportunities that I missed regarding pump and dumps, I don't regret any of that. Surely, XRP is a shitcoin, so even missing out of that pump and dump should not be regretted in my thinking, as long as you got your finances in order regarding making sure that you are stacking BTC early and often and ongoingly.

Also, any guy who might end up over leveraging in BTC a bit, should not have regrets about selling some BTC along the way, but of course, if a guy sells too much BTC too soon, then he ends up no longer being over leveraged.

I am not really opposed to some over investing in bitcoin.. but of course, use of leverage should be treated with a decent amount of care - especially since bitcoin remains such an asymmetric bet (and seems to continue to be postured in that way), there has been a lot of chances to get rich as fuck with bitcoin without even leveraging at all, and just the idea of get rich quick can be tempered with bitcoin because there has also been a lot of opportunities to get richer faster than through traditional investments and even with moderate accumulation and DCA'ing strategies, even though none of these matters are guaranteed and even though the deck still seems to be stacked with decently high probabilities that BTC is going to continue to provide higher than average returns (especially if guys account for both the upside and the downside of their investment in BTC as compared with other possible investments - and guys definitely should continue to be careful in terms of investing in any shitcoins.. there are upsides to some of the shitcoins including if guys can get the timing right with them, but accounting for the downside and timing with investing in shitcoins should also remain top of the mind when dealing with any of the shitcoins - in case some guys do not know, anything that is not BTC is a shitcoin).
 
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