If I recall correctly it took roughly 6 months after previous halfing for btc to hit previous ATH of 1k price. If the same were to repeat again it'll be late Dec through January February. Then a 6-12 month bull run ending in a blow off top.
Sure.. more or less. We are largely on the same page that there could be a bit of a time delay in regards to passing through the ATH and getting to a blow off top, and sure this could fall under a similar timeline or pattern as it did last time (in 2017) or it could follow a bit of a different pattern, something like 2013.
Another way to attempt to look at the BTC price rise is to attempt to figure out when we get into a ongoing price rise rather than looking at when we pass the ATH, and I would suggest that in 2017, the going from the bouncing off platform to the top was a bit more than a two year process (starting in October 2015 and ending in mid-December 2017), and in 2013, it largely took place in less than one year, even though there were two blow off tops contained therein (starting from February 2013 and ending early December 2013).
The dynamics at various points in the cycle can surely have effects on how the cycle might play out down the road, and just think about this current cycle. From April 2019 to June 2019, we experienced something that way the fuck too soon to fit within previous patterns, and that was a 3.5x price rise from $4,200-ish to $13,880 within three months. That was crazy, premature, but also accomplished some kinds of real world material signaling... whether intentional or not.
We cannot really presume either that BTC is going to have another period of going past our current ATH of $19,666 nor can we project with any kind of specifics how long it will take to get there nor how many peaks or large periods of correction will play out before we have finally reached some kind of blow off top, presuming that it comes - even while at the same time, many o f us who have been watching the bitcoin space for a decently long time can see a lot of factors that seem to be adding up favorably for BTC to give us even greater confidence than we likely experienced during earlier cycles (even though me, personally, I had only personally experienced one cycle so far within terms of going through the whole thing, even though I did get to experience the downside of the 2013 cycle (lucky me).
The altcoin market is good for bitcoin, I'm not sure how maximalists have convinced themselves of the opposite. Bitcoin is also good for altcoins and its speculators.
I don't know why you have to devolve into name calling, merely because someone like me had expressed a relatively strong opinion, including hostility towards shitcoins. You therefore want to take the argument to a higher (or would we say lower?) level, merely because we have differing perspectives in regards to shitcoins, and their role. I could give less than two shits about your various shitcoins, whether you want to get involved in them or even if you want to talk them up to some extent, but frequently the case with shitcoin talker-uppers is that they want to devolve into criticizing bitcoin and proclaiming various presumptuous deficiencies in bitcoin or exaggerating such deficiencies in order to hold out shitcoin 1, shitcoin 2, shitcoin 3 or some combination of shitcoins as purported solutions - when many times those shitcoins are just smoke and mirror paper products, and sure you can make money on them, so I am not arguing that you cannot make money on those crap products, but I largely refrain from getting involved with various shitcoins in any kind of way, except maybe point them out for the smoke and mirror deceptive scams that they usually are.
Another thing is that I doubt that there is hardly any truth to your proclamation trying to suggest that shitcoins are equally necessary for bitcoin to survive.. blah blah blah.. baloney. Another thing that shitcoin pumpers do is try to bring their shitcoin products up to some kind of close to equality as bitcoin. Ethereum does that and various other shitcoins will do that in combination with ethereum or some other shitcoin formula in order to proclaim their snake oil baloney as if they were equals, when they are not even close, even in combination. Sure combining a bunch of shit together does NOT exactly make the product better, especially when we are talking about security and foundational principles that should be attempting to build upon strength, and many of us should realize from the old expression that the strength of these products might be undermined by various vulnerabilities in weak links that nearly all of the shitcoins have.
One thing that I do notice with you, burner, is that you have been way more receptive to bitcoin in this cycle (even since about 2018/2019) than you were during the last bitcoin run (2016/217) when you were fighting the idea of bitcoin the whole time, and I am not sure if you lost any money getting caught up in the various bullshit pumpenings of shitcoins because they surely did crash harder once they started crashing, but I imagine that there still could be some various ways to have your overall investment portfolio to perform decently well, especially if you are measuring performance in terms of dollars and if you don't really mind wasting your time and energies pursuing a bunch of shit and partnering with shitcoin pumpers (because you "learn" skills and blah blah blah along the way).
I am not even proclaiming to be pure as snow myself, because I do consider that even a 10% to 20% allocation into shitcoins (relative to bitcoin) might be reasonable and prudent for some guys and make them feel like taking some risks, even though I personally could not see myself allocating much more than 5% into shitcoins, and frequently my shitcoins have historically remained in a kind of 1% to 2% arena (relative to bitcoin). Anyhow, in the end, guys certainly should be calculating these matters out for themselves in terms of how much they believe that they can invest into bitcoin (or other crypto), if any, and then figuring out strategies within their investment (trading/gambling) practices that they believe work for their situations. So, sure we are going to make differing choices, and sometimes we might also go to battle a bit (with our words) in terms of attempting to describe what we perceive to be the various trade-offs of differing strategies, including maybe sometimes pointing out what we believe to be short-sightedness of guys who differ in their investment approach, whether we are referring to BTC, traditional investments, shitcoins and/or some combination of those.
