Crypto lounge thread

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Biggest regret? Back in 2010, I wish I would have paid for those pizzas in cash...

Some of the background about Lazlo does seem to be that he was kind of swimming in bitcoin, anyhow, and maybe even he was feeling guilty in regards to being one of the early GPU miners that caused him to accumulate a lot of coins, relatively speaking.

Lazlo does not seem to have too many regrets in regards to the pizza purchases that he made in 2010 or his other various subsequent bitcoin consumptions.

Some of the calculations are going to be different if guys earn money in BTC versus if guys are using cash to buy their BTC, and so of course, either way, guys are likely going to need to calculate how much of their cashflow to keep in bitcoin versus keeping it in cash - and of course, some guys may end up making poor calculations along the way, too... that retrospectively may seem to be even worse because of judging those decisions with hindsight.
 
Time for some input:

What's your Plan B/exit strategy/tax strategy for your crypto?

I ask this because as of the time of this writing, the United States Dollar is currently under immense pressure due to de-dollarization by international trade, not to mention out-of-control fiscal and monetary policy domestically. Without our lifetime, the USD will likely be greatly diminished as a reserve held/exchanged by foreign buyers, or dethroned completely by a new reserve currency and/or crypto. Assuming that there is at least this possibility, one must try to hedge against it.

I hold US stocks and life insurance (paid for/cashed out in USD), crypto (BTC, ETH, ADA, XLM, VEN, LINK). My long-term theory is that I need to move more of my reserve dollars that are currently undeployed into alternative asset classes that have more room for appreciation/protection against hyper-inflation. The conclusion I've come to is to buy more crypto and residential real estate (also looking at hard assets like farm equipment, tools, etc).

Specifically crypto has both the potential for considerable gains and acts as a hedge against a USD collapse. That being said, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the tax implications (as an American), as it seems all fiat on-ramp/off-ramp exchanges that service US citizens have K.Y.C. requirements, and as such, are subject to taxes. What has your tax strategy been, if you're subject to it? Buy and holding crypto seems easier from a tax standpoint rather than being an active trader, and I haven't been able to find much info on the common exchanges regarding if they even generate a transaction report for you at tax time, or do you have to manually calculate it yourself?

What's one to do for the long-term?

Take BTC for instance. It is becoming harder and harder to mine, and it won't be too long before the total 21m are mined. It is a finite amount, so theoretically the price should stay high due to scarcity. That being said, are you planning on spending your BTC before or after the last block is mined? Do you plan on selling it near ATH, then converting the proceeds to another asset class (stocks, bonds, fiat, etc.) or buying another asset class directly with your BTC (real estate, car, etc.)?

I'm curious to hear if the recent events happening both inside the crypto space and also with the central bank fiat money printer go brrrrrr situation what your thoughts are for how to proceed from here if you're holding crypto.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Time for some input:

What's your Plan B/exit strategy/tax strategy for your crypto?

I ask this because as of the time of this writing, the United States Dollar is currently under immense pressure due to de-dollarization by international trade, not to mention out-of-control fiscal and monetary policy domestically. Without our lifetime, the USD will likely be greatly diminished as a reserve held/exchanged by foreign buyers, or dethroned completely by a new reserve currency and/or crypto. Assuming that there is at least this possibility, one must try to hedge against it.

I don't see how you would be arguing exactly for any exit out of bitcoin (or crypto for that matter). Sure, there can be some pre-emptive allocations that a guy should make, but some of the matters have to play out, too. Sure there could be some overallocation in crypto (let's just stick with bitcoin for now in terms of my response, because I don't see any reasons to have any meaningful further diversification in crypto beyond bitcoin... at least not as I type).


I hold US stocks and life insurance (paid for/cashed out in USD), crypto (BTC, ETH, ADA, XLM, VEN, LINK). My long-term theory is that I need to move more of my reserve dollars that are currently undeployed into alternative asset classes that have more room for appreciation/protection against hyper-inflation. The conclusion I've come to is to buy more crypto and residential real estate (also looking at hard assets like farm equipment, tools, etc).

Sure, hard assets and real estate is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you believe that the downfall is imminent.

Specifically crypto has both the potential for considerable gains and acts as a hedge against a USD collapse. That being said, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the tax implications (as an American), as it seems all fiat on-ramp/off-ramp exchanges that service US citizens have K.Y.C. requirements, and as such, are subject to taxes. What has your tax strategy been, if you're subject to it?

Sure, taxes tend to be a pain in the ass, and sure you can pay as you go, too. In the past few years, I have claimed a little each year, but I have not really gotten into major cashing out, so the amount of my BTC claims have been relatively small.. but, surely, tax ramification can be a burden but they might even change drastically, too. Perhaps?

Buy and holding crypto seems easier from a tax standpoint rather than being an active trader, and I haven't been able to find much info on the common exchanges regarding if they even generate a transaction report for you at tax time, or do you have to manually calculate it yourself?

Yep.... trading can be a BIG pain in the ass for accounting purposes.

What's one to do for the long-term?

Even if a guy is new to bitcoin, he could still take something like a 10% allocation, and not necessarily have to reallocate because that portion will end up growing a lot, in the scenario that you present.

Take BTC for instance. It is becoming harder and harder to mine, and it won't be too long before the total 21m are mined. It is a finite amount, so theoretically the price should stay high due to scarcity. That being said, are you planning on spending your BTC before or after the last block is mined?

None of us are going to be alive in 2130-2140, when the last satoshi is mined.... I think that BTC is going to continue to be sustainable, even with the reduction of the mining reward, so there is likely going to continue to be an ability to spend BTC incrementally.

I may be thinking about this matter slightly differently from you, JMK. Largely, I had done most of my accumulation of BTC in 2014-2015 and some in 2016.. and I largely transitioned into a kind of maintenance stage after 2016...

In the coming years, I will transition further into a kind of liquidation stage, which just largely would start out as a kind of passive withdrawal rate of 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter for consumption or whatever, and then if there is a need to withdraw greater principle or I think that I might be dying soon, then I might start withdrawing higher than 1% per quarter (which presumptively starts to dig into the principle rather than merely living off the ongoing expected average appreciation that will likely average over 1% per quarter even though some quarters and periods will be less than that level of appreciation, the average overall BTC appreciation will be good enough for me in terms of just continuing to withdraw).



Do you plan on selling it near ATH, then converting the proceeds to another asset class (stocks, bonds, fiat, etc.) or buying another asset class directly with your BTC (real estate, car, etc.)?

I personally am not planning to do that.. maybe I will shave a little extra off (maybe 10% or 20%), but not really planning to sell large quantities.

I'm curious to hear if the recent events happening both inside the crypto space and also with the central bank fiat money printer go brrrrrr situation what your thoughts are for how to proceed from here if you're holding crypto.

Sure the "money printer go brrrr" seems to have caused the appreciation of the price of bitcoin relative to other assets to become more likely, but I do not really consider any need to change what was my tentative plan anyhow... what I had already been saying that I was going to do.. and sure, maybe my situation is a bit different from other guys because I have considered that I have plenty of BTC since about late 2014 or so.. even though I still like to talk about the idea a lot along the way and with the passage of time, but sure it does feel good to have a BTC price cushion that just seems to be getting bigger and Bigger and BIGGER with the passage of time... (through the troughs and the high points) The ongoing increasing price cushion (for guys who had been investing on a long time horizon like me and not getting obsessed with shorter term dips and corrections and desires to get greedy) gives a lot of options in and of itself, including an ability to just cash out large portions (or even medium portions) if there is some kind of opportunity, without even giving much consideration to where the price is at..

At some point, it is all profitable, and whether you might be in 5x profits or 20x or 100x, the numbers might start to feel a bit inconsequential once they get above a certain point (including considering other investments that a guy might have, too), to speculate that maybe there is a need to wait before selling, and there might not even be any kind of feeling for all or nothing cashing out, just cash out some portion here and there along the way (as needed) and let the other portion continue to ride through the likely ongoing ups and downs of the coming years.. sure volatility is likely going to continue in bitcoin, too.. and whether the upwards price appreciation plays out or the dollar goes into demise might not be as impeding as it is made out to be, but of course, it still is prudent (as you seem to be suggesting JMK to have some plans in place for such seemingly improbable outcomes too, when they are now seeming to be much more probable than they were seeming just a year ago).
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Time for some input:

What's your Plan B/exit strategy/tax strategy for your crypto?

I ask this because as of the time of this writing, the United States Dollar is currently under immense pressure due to de-dollarization by international trade, not to mention out-of-control fiscal and monetary policy domestically. Without our lifetime, the USD will likely be greatly diminished as a reserve held/exchanged by foreign buyers, or dethroned completely by a new reserve currency and/or crypto. Assuming that there is at least this possibility, one must try to hedge against it.

I hold US stocks and life insurance (paid for/cashed out in USD), crypto (BTC, ETH, ADA, XLM, VEN, LINK). My long-term theory is that I need to move more of my reserve dollars that are currently undeployed into alternative asset classes that have more room for appreciation/protection against hyper-inflation. The conclusion I've come to is to buy more crypto and residential real estate (also looking at hard assets like farm equipment, tools, etc).

Specifically crypto has both the potential for considerable gains and acts as a hedge against a USD collapse. That being said, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the tax implications (as an American), as it seems all fiat on-ramp/off-ramp exchanges that service US citizens have K.Y.C. requirements, and as such, are subject to taxes. What has your tax strategy been, if you're subject to it? Buy and holding crypto seems easier from a tax standpoint rather than being an active trader, and I haven't been able to find much info on the common exchanges regarding if they even generate a transaction report for you at tax time, or do you have to manually calculate it yourself?

What's one to do for the long-term?

Take BTC for instance. It is becoming harder and harder to mine, and it won't be too long before the total 21m are mined. It is a finite amount, so theoretically the price should stay high due to scarcity. That being said, are you planning on spending your BTC before or after the last block is mined? Do you plan on selling it near ATH, then converting the proceeds to another asset class (stocks, bonds, fiat, etc.) or buying another asset class directly with your BTC (real estate, car, etc.)?

I'm curious to hear if the recent events happening both inside the crypto space and also with the central bank fiat money printer go brrrrrr situation what your thoughts are for how to proceed from here if you're holding crypto.
HODL

In my opinion BTC should make up 5-20% of your portfolio and be used similar to gold, as a hedge against global uncertainty and unrest. No matter which way you look at it (boogaloo, balkanization, hyperflation), Bitcoin will win in the long run. IF your time horizon is long enough.

I've been around the space long enough to know that for me, timing the market is not a worthwhile endeavor. If you end up in the circumstance where you need to sell, then that's on you. You should be focused on making more money elsewhere.

I know this might seem a bit extreme, especially if you're making sick gainz, but it's the best long term option if you plan well and are not over-leveraged.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
HODL

In my opinion BTC should make up 5-20% of your portfolio and be used similar to gold, as a hedge against global uncertainty and unrest. No matter which way you look at it (boogaloo, balkanization, hyperflation), Bitcoin will win in the long run. IF your time horizon is long enough.

I've been around the space long enough to know that for me, timing the market is not a worthwhile endeavor. If you end up in the circumstance where you need to sell, then that's on you. You should be focused on making more money elsewhere.

I know this might seem a bit extreme, especially if you're making sick gainz, but it's the best long term option if you plan well and are not over-leveraged.

I hate to quibble with someone who is seeming to suggest an even higher BTC allocation than what I tend to suggest for the new BTC entrants (which is 1% to 10%), but hey, the devil might be in the details rather than the overall perspective....

Anyhow, my question to you redbeard would be if any guy ends up allocating around 20% into bitcoin, and let's say the guy is totally comfortable with his remaining 80% that is well able to support him, and he is surely not overextending himself... Let's say that the BTC price does some variation as it did from 2015 to 2017, and sure, my hypothetical will suggest that we are in the midst of that similar period right now (something like mid-to-late 2016), so the hypothetical guy allocates 20% of his investable wealth into BTC, and so his average cost per BTC might be around $12k.. then the BTC price shoots up to $200k (16x), which is NOT even as extreme as the 2017 price surge which was a bit more than 20x between the end of 2016 and the end of 2017.

Anyhow, after the BTC price goes shooting up (maybe even it takes a year or two to accomplish) instead of being 20% allocated in BTC, all of a sudden that same guy has an allocation in BTC that is in the ballpark of 80%. So with an extreme like 16x, the allocations end up flipping.

What is such a guy supposed to do? Does he cash out some of his BTC? Does he just let the whole investment ride? Personally, I end up cashing out less than 10% of my BTC holdings during the 2017 BTC price rise, and I don't really have any major regrets about that approach that I largely established in advance but did not expect that we were going to get a 85% price drop, but guys can become really anxious if they have something like another 85% price drop.. which surely could happen and bring BTC back down to $30k-ish,.. then they are second guessing themselves because they have unrealized gains because hardly any of them were cashed in... and maybe their BTC share would plummet down from 80% of their total holdings to around 40%.. still quite a bit higher than the initial 20%, but surely not as good as 80% (when looked at in retrospect).
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
I hate to quibble with someone who is seeming to suggest an even higher BTC allocation than what I tend to suggest for the new BTC entrants (which is 1% to 10%), but hey, the devil might be in the details rather than the overall perspective....

Anyhow, my question to you redbeard would be if any guy ends up allocating around 20% into bitcoin, and let's say the guy is totally comfortable with his remaining 80% that is well able to support him, and he is surely not overextending himself... Let's say that the BTC price does some variation as it did from 2015 to 2017, and sure, my hypothetical will suggest that we are in the midst of that similar period right now (something like mid-to-late 2016), so the hypothetical guy allocates 20% of his investable wealth into BTC, and so his average cost per BTC might be around $12k.. then the BTC price shoots up to $200k (16x), which is NOT even as extreme as the 2017 price surge which was a bit more than 20x between the end of 2016 and the end of 2017.

Anyhow, after the BTC price goes shooting up (maybe even it takes a year or two to accomplish) instead of being 20% allocated in BTC, all of a sudden that same guy has an allocation in BTC that is in the ballpark of 80%. So with an extreme like 16x, the allocations end up flipping.

What is such a guy supposed to do? Does he cash out some of his BTC? Does he just let the whole investment ride? Personally, I end up cashing out less than 10% of my BTC holdings during the 2017 BTC price rise, and I don't really have any major regrets about that approach that I largely established in advance but did not expect that we were going to get a 85% price drop, but guys can become really anxious if they have something like another 85% price drop.. which surely could happen and bring BTC back down to $30k-ish,.. then they are second guessing themselves because they have unrealized gains because hardly any of them were cashed in... and maybe their BTC share would plummet down from 80% of their total holdings to around 40%.. still quite a bit higher than the initial 20%, but surely not as good as 80% (when looked at in retrospect).
In such cases there are two options:

1. HODL
Pros: Zero time investment, no tax implications, no risk of making bad trades
Cons: Drawdowns, over-allocation

2. Diversify
Pros: Safer allocation, preserves profits
Cons: Tax implications, trading fees, stress/risk of timing the market

However at the end of the day I believe in WallStreetPlayboys' guideline that if your net worth is under $1M, allocation really doesn't matter. Making too much profit off of BTC is a "good problem to have," and in cases like that, you can just play it safe and do both HODL'ing and diversifying by stopping your BTC purchases and switching to buying more equities instead. It's really up to you but I'm glad we're talking about this, because some people end up blowing their gainz because of mismanagement.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
In such cases there are two options:

1. HODL
Pros: Zero time investment, no tax implications, no risk of making bad trades
Cons: Drawdowns, over-allocation

2. Diversify
Pros: Safer allocation, preserves profits
Cons: Tax implications, trading fees, stress/risk of timing the market

It seems that part of the way forward is to anticipate a variety of scenarios, and of course, if you plot out the paths of certain actions with each of the possibilities then you might be able to figure out what plan or maybe some hybrid variation is going to feel more comfortable for you and for your own situation.. accounting for your personal factors, of course.

In late 2014, BTC prices had gone down from the $1,163 high (in late 2013) to around $385. I sent out multiple e-mails telling several of my friends/relatives about the "great" BTC buying opportunity then in play.
Most of them ignored my e-mail, several of them inquired a bit and mostly laughed at the idea and just a couple acted upon my information in relatively minor ways to take some modest BTC position.

From about the point in time of my late 2014 "call to arms" email to the point in which BTC prices went back above $385 and stayed there was about 1.5 years - approximately, depending on how you measure "staying above" and really, the buying "opportunity" of BTC prices largely bouncing between $200 and $300 lasted nearly a year through late 2014 and into most of 2015 - even though some folks would have considered BTC prices to have been in the doldrums (and even a decent number of folks sold their BTC during late 2014/2015.

I'm telling this little story because sometimes an explanation for motivations needs context, and largely by the time BTC prices were flat for so much of 2015, a decent amount of my time was spent figuring out how to continue to prepare myself for either BTC price direction.. down and up.. and even though we can see the punchline direction of BTC's price movement after-the-fact, at the time that I was outlining my plan it was meant to be preparation for either BTC price direction.

Actually, I ended up plotting out variations of my plan on an Excel spreadsheet, and the down portion was largely just intended to ride it all the way to zero, if it were to go there while continuing with a kind of modest DCA approach.

In 2015 and even 2016, the UP portion of my plan did kind of seem like pie in the sky, and using Excel, I could infinitely copy my plan and to tweak it here or there to see how variations of the plan might play out. Of course, if there are only changes to one or two variables, then there might not be a need to copy the Excel spreadsheet but instead just structure the Excel spreadsheet in a way to be able to merely toggle through various changes and then be able to quickly see how the remainder of the spreadsheet might play out based on small changes to various assumptions (or just changing one assumption).

When the BTC price went shooting up in kind of gradual ways in late 2015 and then mid 2016 and then again in late 2016, I was be able to make rolling changes to the assumptions in my spreadsheet(s), but then also to look back at my earlier assumptions, and to come to some kind of personalized resolution regarding my own personal actions that would be comfortable to me. So then when the BTC prices continued to shoot up at various points in 2017, I was largely continuing to just extend out the extremes to further out scenarios because the extremes of my earlier models were already being reached by late 2017.

So even if the model accounts for both extreme ups and extreme downs, there continues to be a kind of empirical reality check that plays out in a bit of a weird, yet interesting way because the models can continue to be monitored and even tweaked while the BTC price is going down, too.. and maybe even questions about.. Am I willing to live with "this"? Am I willing to live with "this"? And, in the end, having variations of plans does seem to help to NOT panic quite a bit when extremes are playing out because largely the extremes have already been plotted... but hey, I am not going to lie or to sugar coat the matter, because even with a plan and variations of a plan the extremes still can have gut wrenching periods and even questioning about "whether I am doing the thing that is within a realm of personally acceptable for my situation?"


However at the end of the day I believe in WallStreetPlayboys' guideline that if your net worth is under $1M, allocation really doesn't matter. Making too much profit off of BTC is a "good problem to have," and in cases like that, you can just play it safe and do both HODL'ing and diversifying by stopping your BTC purchases and switching to buying more equities instead. It's really up to you but I'm glad we're talking about this, because some people end up blowing their gainz because of mismanagement.

I agree that many times we are small potatoes in the whole scheme of things, but just consider that even a fairly modest investment of $25k into BTC in 2015 in the $250 price arena would have resulted in a 100BTC stash, which would not have been unreasonable at all because BTC prices were bouncing around $250 or below for a good amount of time for about 10 months - during 2015... and then sure with a bit more capital could have still got 100BTC with a bit more capital (maybe $45k or so) because BTC prices got caught in sub $450s for another 6 months from November 2015 to May 2016. Of course, the cost of entrance into a 100BTC stash has gone up and guys are likely to make some mistakes along the way, but just being able to hang on to 100BTC does put a guy in a potentially decent position, if there were another 16x in this cycle.. then the guy with 100BTC may have started out fairly modest but then all of a sudden has $20 million in value... Yeah, sure still small potatoes for the wallstreet crowd, but a decently good cushion for regular joe blow mainstreet guys, who may have started out with investing with small amounts of initial capital and just trying to allow time to play to his favor.

Yes.. much more difficult for a newbie BTC entrant guy to get to 100BTC, but there is no real sign that BTC is going to underperform other investment possibilities, so even a relatively modest investment of $25k to $50k could still put a guy anywhere from 2.1BTC to 4.2BTC, and personally, I have recently been suggesting that if guys have 4 year timelines or more, then he can develop a strategy that involves perhaps frontloading and DCA into BTC and the longer the timeline, the greater the chances that the guy builds up a larger BTC stash.. that might put him in a similar relative position as the guy investing to get 100BTC in 2014/2015/2016...

There are no needs to do the numbers more specifically at this time because RVF guys are going to have differing means at their disposal, and I never really compared myself to the wallstreet boys anyhow, even though I did find out about BTC and start taking action much earlier than a lot of them, and my own front loading did likely put me in a relatively better position than the Microstrategy entrants who came into BTC and bought up around 21,454 BTC for $250million (which is around $11,650 per BTC).. and I am thinking that even they are going to look be looking like geniuses 4-10 years down the road.. presuming that they can hang onto around that quantity of BTC in their investment portfolio (or reserves as they had called it) for at least 4 years.. (they might sell during the next peak, but so what? Let them do whatever they are going to do)
 

Tactician

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Oh man, biggest Btc regret?

Back in 2010 or so, when I first heard about Bitcoin, it was trading at around 30 cents. I thought "what is this silly thing?" and then ignored it.

Later I saw it trading at like $97 and I thought, "Holy crap! This thing is insane!" but I didn't bother to learn about it. Then some time later it crashed to like $3 and I remember laughing and thinking "HA! Those fools bought into a bubble!" ... failing to realize that $3 is 10x more than 30 cents and that I was the FOOL.

At this time I barely knew anything about Austrian Econ (or econ in general) and proceeded to ignore Btc for many years, only occasionally noticing the price somewhere and thinking dumb thoughts like, "Maybe Bitcoin is a good buy, but $300 is just too much."

I console myself by telling myself that I'm the type of guy to have left all my Btc on MtGox so I'd have lost it all anyway.

These days, I make sure not to laugh at things out of hand & to instead spend some time learning about them.

There are other crypto regrets, but that's the biggest.
 
Oh man, biggest Btc regret?

Back in 2010 or so, when I first heard about Bitcoin, it was trading at around 30 cents. I thought "what is this silly thing?" and then ignored it.

Later I saw it trading at like $97 and I thought, "Holy crap! This thing is insane!" but I didn't bother to learn about it. Then some time later it crashed to like $3 and I remember laughing and thinking "HA! Those fools bought into a bubble!" ... failing to realize that $3 is 10x more than 30 cents and that I was the FOOL.

At this time I barely knew anything about Austrian Econ (or econ in general) and proceeded to ignore Btc for many years, only occasionally noticing the price somewhere and thinking dumb thoughts like, "Maybe Bitcoin is a good buy, but $300 is just too much."

I console myself by telling myself that I'm the type of guy to have left all my Btc on MtGox so I'd have lost it all anyway.

These days, I make sure not to laugh at things out of hand & to instead spend some time learning about them.

There are other crypto regrets, but that's the biggest.

What a story! My heart goes out to you, regarding our similar painful experiences.

"These days, I make sure not to laugh at things out of hand & to instead spend some time learning about them."

Amen! Yes, I have taken the very same stance about new things. And I try to also have better "life opportunity radar" than I had in the past, so that I have a better chance of finding out about things, before the window of opportunity closes, as the masses find out about it. Easier said than done, I realize.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Oh man, biggest Btc regret?

Back in 2010 or so, when I first heard about Bitcoin, it was trading at around 30 cents. I thought "what is this silly thing?" and then ignored it.

Later I saw it trading at like $97 and I thought, "Holy crap! This thing is insane!" but I didn't bother to learn about it. Then some time later it crashed to like $3 and I remember laughing and thinking "HA! Those fools bought into a bubble!" ... failing to realize that $3 is 10x more than 30 cents and that I was the FOOL.

At this time I barely knew anything about Austrian Econ (or econ in general) and proceeded to ignore Btc for many years, only occasionally noticing the price somewhere and thinking dumb thoughts like, "Maybe Bitcoin is a good buy, but $300 is just too much."

I console myself by telling myself that I'm the type of guy to have left all my Btc on MtGox so I'd have lost it all anyway.

These days, I make sure not to laugh at things out of hand & to instead spend some time learning about them.

There are other crypto regrets, but that's the biggest.

What a story! My heart goes out to you, regarding our similar painful experiences.

"These days, I make sure not to laugh at things out of hand & to instead spend some time learning about them."

Amen! Yes, I have taken the very same stance about new things. And I try to also have better "life opportunity radar" than I had in the past, so that I have a better chance of finding out about things, before the window of opportunity closes, as the masses find out about it. Easier said than done, I realize.

If you guys had made similar mistakes, what have you been determining to be possible solutions to learn from the mistakes and perhaps tweak your approaches?

Have either of you taken action to buy bitcoin since you realized your mistakes?

Even this year, bitcoin has spent a lot of time in lower price points, and as you likely realize my particular investment style into BTC has not included a wait and see approach or any kind of attempt to time the market, but instead moderate action over a long time. With bitcoin it seems to be that the longer that you have been in it, the better your BTC price performance looks as compared with other assets.

Here's an example of how a 5-year investment of $50 per week would have performed in BTC as compared with gold and stocks... way out performance of BTC (8x - ish) compared with gold (49%) and stocks (26%).

I doubt that the long term prospects of bitcoin are going to be changing in terms of likely superior performance and I doubt that anyone can really convincingly argue that bitcoin is a mature asset that has reached its peak - which means that we continue to largely be in bitcoin early days, relatively speaking.. Of course not as great as getting into the investment earlier (or thinking back retrospectively.. but what good does that do unless you are able to learn from it?), but there is also a kind of expression that the best time to get into bitcoin was years in the past, the second best time to get into bitcoin was yesterday and the third best time to get into bitcoin is today.

I don't see any reasons why NOT to set up some BTC related accounts and get started buying BTC, even if it is only $20 per week - of course, $50 per week would be better. It can take a bit of time to get accounts set up, but you will be in a better position by starting now rather than attempting to do it when the BTC price really starts to go crazy (in the event that we have another BTC price run past the previous $19,666 ATH)...

And, another part of my recommendation now, and had been historically... Don't get distracted into investing in various shitcoins.. you are just committing the same "get rich quick" mistakes that are more likely to be shot in the dark gambling rather than actual long term investing.. with a minimum of a 4-year time horizon, and of course if you time horizon is longer then you are likely going to be in even a better position.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
IMO if it goes up a few X since you baught you liquidate your initial investment amount and hodle the gainz at least until after the end of this long term money cycle (maybe 10 years?).

Of course, guys can come to differing conclusions regarding how to attempt to safe guard their principle and their gains.

I personally take the approach of not investing more than you can afford to lose and having a longer investment time horizon.

Of course, you are correct that BTC is likely to have some kind of similar correction cycle as it has had in previous years.

So there can be a balance in both considering how much is enough to put into BTC in order to make sure that gains end up mattering, and the other aspect is whether and how to take out and maybe even to reinvest that amount.

Another way of thinking is that if you got your expenses and cashflow covered in various ways and then you only allocate between 1% and 10% of your investment portfolio into BTC, then you might not be so anxious to take out your principle.. but those kinds of decisions can also vary from guy to guy in terms of whether they let their winners ride.. even when there are decently high chances of a future decently large price correction.
 

kel

Pelican
My regret is spending what would now be several billions of dollars worth of bitcoin on LSD.

I also sold a little this and that on the Silk Road and took a lot of it out, but got lazy and wasn't consistently withdrawing. When it got shut down I lost what was that the time 8k USD of bitcoin. It was probably $200 or so around then, so....
 

tomzestatlu

Kingfisher
I am thinking about investing some more money in crypto and I am thinking about strategy. Not really big money (I don't live in US and average salary is less than 1k here). So basically I'm aiming for hundreds % gains. That maybe won't happen anymore, but it might happen and that's the reason I'm in.
I bought some XRP at the beginning of Q4/2017 pump and continued to buy more all over last year. I won't discuss token itself, but I think, that when the pump comes, XRP could be pumped pretty much.
I would like to own something of BTC and currently I have 2-3k extra to invest. The thing is, when the BTC reaches previous ATH, it will by only 40% gain, which is not interesting for me at all.
Does it makes sense for me to invest to BTC ?

Also I'm aiming to buy a flat in 1 or 2 years and banks require certain amount of cash to give mortgage, so there might come situation, when I need to withdraw all my investments and turn it into fiat. By this time, my investments should be ideally appreciated and not depreciated - which can also happen, but I believe we are at the beginning of bullrun and I don't want to miss the train, if there will be any.
 
Bitcoin is probably a good investment even just on a one or two year timeframe. Other coins might get you higher gains but are more risky. I think BTC shines as a longer term investment though. I plan on holding most my investments for at least 5 years with my target BTC 100k, ETH 3k. Some of my holdings I will take short term gains or even play the market selling high and buying low. Either way, it seems like we are in the beginnings of a bullrun IMO and it would be a good time to accumulate.

If Ethereum is successful with ETH 2.0, I think the price will explode... but if not it might have less gains than Bitcoin. I'd recommend looking into ETH and come to your own conclusions.

Edit: if BTC gets to previous high of 19.5k, that is more than a 40% gain, it is closer to a 70% gain (11.5 x 1.7 = 19.55)
 
Last edited:

lonewolf1992

Woodpecker
I am thinking about investing some more money in crypto and I am thinking about strategy. Not really big money (I don't live in US and average salary is less than 1k here). So basically I'm aiming for hundreds % gains. That maybe won't happen anymore, but it might happen and that's the reason I'm in.
I bought some XRP at the beginning of Q4/2017 pump and continued to buy more all over last year. I won't discuss token itself, but I think, that when the pump comes, XRP could be pumped pretty much.
I would like to own something of BTC and currently I have 2-3k extra to invest. The thing is, when the BTC reaches previous ATH, it will by only 40% gain, which is not interesting for me at all.
Does it makes sense for me to invest to BTC ?

Also I'm aiming to buy a flat in 1 or 2 years and banks require certain amount of cash to give mortgage, so there might come situation, when I need to withdraw all my investments and turn it into fiat. By this time, my investments should be ideally appreciated and not depreciated - which can also happen, but I believe we are at the beginning of bullrun and I don't want to miss the train, if there will be any.

I'm pretty new here but I'll DCA on BTC and ETH for the following years, and probably with some altcoins that have potential. TBH I don't expect to be a millonaire but maybe have some more decent money to invest on something else. 50% gains on 1000k - 2000K is nearly 6 months of savings where I currently live so I'll take them gladly. I've also spent over 10k on hobbies, partying, dates, clothing over the past 4 years I will try to use the same budget to put into crypto instead. I was recommended to buy it first in 2015 when it was 200 USD, I said nah.
 
This DeFi craze is basically 2017 ICOs. People are staking their coins and earning high interest yields doing nothing and $9b in ETH has already been locked up. By the end of next week it's possible 10% of ETH is locked up in DeFi. If this trend continues to 30-40% you will see 2k USD ETH and potentially it flipping BTC's marketcap. I think the only thing stopping it is gas prices, slow transactions etc. It looks like all the East Asian DeFi coins are the new craze (YFI YFII YFV SUSHI Yakkafinance etc) and traditional boomer coins are getting pushed out. I know that the DeFi craze started back in March but it's only picked up by retail money over the last few weeks so Imagine this could last for another 4-5 months before it ends badly. Crypto is a zero sum game and everyone can't win forever. Meanwhile BTC is struggling to punch through 12k but I'm confident it will be pushing toward 14k before Dec, potentially even 20k. I sense a lot of new money coming in thanks to Defi.
 

Redcrus

Pigeon
This DeFi craze is basically 2017 ICOs. People are staking their coins and earning high interest yields doing nothing and $9b in ETH has already been locked up. By the end of next week it's possible 10% of ETH is locked up in DeFi. If this trend continues to 30-40% you will see 2k USD ETH and potentially it flipping BTC's marketcap. I think the only thing stopping it is gas prices, slow transactions etc. It looks like all the East Asian DeFi coins are the new craze (YFI YFII YFV SUSHI Yakkafinance etc) and traditional boomer coins are getting pushed out. I know that the DeFi craze started back in March but it's only picked up by retail money over the last few weeks so Imagine this could last for another 4-5 months before it ends badly. Crypto is a zero sum game and everyone can't win forever. Meanwhile BTC is struggling to punch through 12k but I'm confident it will be pushing toward 14k before Dec, potentially even 20k. I sense a lot of new money coming in thanks to Defi.

The gas prices are insane right now, ETH 2 will hopefully change this, but a lot of people are making some crazy money on DeFi. I just can't figure out how they pick the right coin. Its like throwing random darts and hoping one hits the bullseye.

Has anyone here invested in DeFi?
 
Top