Crypto lounge thread

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
One reason the trading volumes are so high is because a lot of that is fake trading data reported by dodgy exchanges.

Crypto exchange FTX claims that two thirds of exchange volume is fake (see).

So if they are correct that gives you 7% of ETH traded per day. The real daily volume is probably somewhere between $30 and $60 billion, with about 2-3% of that being DeFi. I imagine DeFi will account for about 10% of volume by the end of 2021 and 30% by the end of 2022. For that reason DeFi tokens are some of my main interests. DeFi has less to worry about from The SEC and other dinos. As there is essentially nothing The SEC can do to control DeFi. UniSwap has just done $1 billion volume in a day and that is with only $2 billion in liquidity. So you can see how much coins can move.

Another reason is that crypto exchanges/services are less restrictive and easier to get money into for "high risk" people. And its not subject to excessive, direct regulation, at least outside The US. There is also a lot of API trading in crypto. Legacy exchanges typically charge you about $10-100 per purchase depending on what you are buying (stocks, bonds, other) plus fees, which are generally higher than crypto. So crypto has a lot more incentive for a lot more people with lower barriers to trade via API.

On other alts. My main purchase in March this year was ETH as it was down about 93% (if I remember correctly), while Bitcoin was down about 80%; from their ATHs. Looking at other coins they were down about 95% from their ATHs, so it did not make sense to buy them IMO. And at current BTC is up about 6.75X, while ETH is at 8.6X. And I think ETH has far much more to go and far more reason to buy. It's a growing financial services platform. While Bitcoin's only real use is black/grey money flows.

I think anything that is just an ETH clone should be avoided. ETH has the market cornered. Any project on another chain is like trying to conduct all you business in the Indian rupee. You are outside of virtually all the attention and capital flows. Its seems EOS and Tron are technically superior to ETH, but they have one notable project on their chain between them, BitTorrent. It's a bit like WordPress, which is an abominable shambles from a technical POV. But it has most of the attention, support and capital flows.

I think your best coins to buy are ones that are not ETH clones (financial services platform) and will have real use cases for crypto- or tech-people. There are projects for all kinds of obscure things like document management, care homes, mineral mining management etc. Too far away from people who will use them. The projects that will be used are ones that will be adopted in decentralised services, either by projects of end-users.

For that reason my main pick has been MYST, a decentralised VPN; Presearch, a decentralised search engine (running your own node for the search engine launching early next year); AVA, Binance-owned apartment/hotel booking platform; Golem, decentralised computing resources rental; LBRY, decentralised video platform...

But at the same time. The time to buy alts was 2019 through to March this year. Alts are a lot more volatile. They can pancake 50% for no reason, while BTC may continue to go up. So I am not that attracted to them. Alt, particularly sub-100 coins have been very sluggish since about July.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
What are the top 3 in your opinion? And why does owning defi coins benefit you from defi?

I think you'd have to say Uniswap is number one. Uniswap is the biggest decentralised exchange (DEX) by some margin:


Curve is primarily a DEX for stablecoins, and its token is undervalued, so I'd put that at no. 2.

Sushi's token is more of a ponzi, which is probably a bonus in this space, at this time.

Balancer may be more of an outside bet, as they have lower rates than other pools.

DeFi has had a big bubble this year and is now mostly languishing. I can't see DeFi not eventually amounting to over 50% of real trades and it's a lot more substantial that what otherwise dives crypto - low information, greed, religious thinking and speculation. Whenever we get to a crash, Uniswap will probably be one of my biggest buys.

Most of these tokens are just governance tokens though, so why they should he any value is debatable. The Uniswap token grants you voting rights on Uniswap's governance. You can also be paid the token for providing liquidity. Ultimately I see little point in these tokens, but that doesn't stop bubbles being blown up on the buzz. What is interesting is to see billion flow into decentralised platforms in just a few months. If you want to make profit, investigating providing liquidity.


SNX, AAVE and YFI.

Is everything traded on SNX naked? i.e. there are no assets to back them up?

I like Aave's interest bearing tokens. Just hold the token, refresh your balance a few hours later and you've got more.
 

oilbreh

Woodpecker
Agreed I still don't understand the point of governance tokens in difi. If people don't like a decision they will just clone the pre decision code and run their funds there. Some like aave seem to work like bnb where you get discount fees but not sold on that fully as well since the code is easy to just run in parallel. You are already inside the eth machine, it's not like you need to build a binance competitor. That being said I'll trade the price action you can always invest in ignorance in a bull market.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Dec 30, 2020 Revised Major Weekly Wave C Trend Channel tested BTC 28,580

Revised Estimate for Fibonacci 2.618 Resistance 31,750 is the Week of April 26, 2021

May be sooner if Weekly Larger Primary Wave 1 counted from Wave B low continues to surge higher...

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Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Some like aave seem to work like bnb where you get discount fees

Is there anything notable about the Binance Coin (BNB)? That is one I stayed well clear of. Something that gives you a few shekels off trading fees means little to anyone beyond high-volume API traders.

I noticed that they are bringing out debit cards and if you stake about $200,000 of BNB you will get 8% BNB back on your purchases. Crypto.com also have that at the same price tag. Nice. But a ponzi. Long-term I am looking for things that are attached to the real economy. They will bubble and maintain value through real demand.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Here is a review of the SafePal crypto wallet; and essentially one of Ledger Nano S to boot.

This is a relatively new wallet, backed by Binance.

It is currently available for $40 + shipping; or for $80 for two with free shipping. They say this is a limited offer and the price will be bunked up to $60.

Website: https://www.safepal.io/

Previously I had been using a Ledger Nano S, which is currently $90 (shipping included).

As a first wallet it seemed fairly good, but despite their considerable head-start in the market and large market share it seems they will wane and there is no sign they will make a come back. Notable Ledger's website was recently hacked, making public the names and addresses of around 300,000 wallet purchases - a veritable Who's Who of people with 4-8 figure crypto balances. Although it does not affect the wallet, it does not speak well for their general approach to security and will likely hurt them in a very privacy- and security-conscious space.

On top that the Ledger Nano S can only have about three (it depends on the coins) apps installed on it at any one time. These apps allow you to manage the coins. So if you have Bitcoin and Ethereum installed on it you can't even install some other apps. I have Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron installed. I can't install anything else. Their newer model can take more apps, but it's $150. If you have more coins you can install and uninstall apps as needed, which takes about 1-2 minutes. The account will remain on the Ledger, but you can't do anything with it.

Further Ledger claim support for 100s of coins, but most of them cannot be transacted with their app. You can set up the wallet and then have to use various 3rd party products to manage the coin.

The Ledger is also quite fragile. It has a metal case, which is not fully effective. Mine has a large crack on it from being carried while travelling.

Their desktop app is also temperamental. I cannot upgrade it. It does not install downloaded upgrades. You can install apps (for coins) and once installed it doesn't say so. You can install it again. And there is no indication if you will be able to successfully be able to install an app. The app is very buggy for me and often becomes unresponsive with the interface disappearing:

Screenshot-at-2020-12-31-16-50-02.png


I've also not been able to make some transactions. Multiple tries and using 3rd party wallets yielded nothing. I just got an error message with no trial to help. In March I wanted to take the BTC on it out and go 3X margin long on FTX, but I couldn't get it out.

When I accessed it recently my Tron wallet was not listed in the app. I had to use a 3rd party manager to get the coins out. It also doesn't list some of the more unusual coins I have or they do not have a dollar value.

On to the SafePal...

It is made in and delivered from China.

They say it's air-gapped, but that depends on how you use it. It has a USB connection and out of the box it does not work. You need to charge it by USB. So you can connect it to a computer or a USB charging device. It charges quickly and seems to have a long life. Beyond that you don't need to connect it.

To set it up you need to install their mobile app, which works on Degoogled phones (no Google Play Services). Once installed it gives you a QR to scan. Then you scan the QR it provides in the app.

safepal-qr-codes.jpg



There is a seed of up to 24 words for recovery.

Out of the box it has a BTC, ETH, Tron and Binance (BNB) wallet. It also supports Bitcoin Trash, Dash, DGB, DOGE, DOT, EOS, ETC, NEO + Gas, Kusama, LTC, ONE, QTUM, Stellar, Ripple, ZEC + any token on those chains. All of these can be manged from their app. You don't need 3rd party apps. They say they will add more and that there will be no limit to the number of coins supported.

To transact you create a transaction in your app (you can scan a QR to get the address). This gives you a QR code to scan with the SafePal. You then confirm the details on the SafePal and enter your security pin. The SafePal then produces a slideshow of 8 QR codes, which you scan with your phone. This provides the transaction signature.

See this video:


The mobile app is vastly superior to Ledger. It works without any issues. One of the best features in it is they have built DeFi into it - both through the app or you can browser to DeFi sites in the app. So to transact - you just set up a swap in the app, scan the QR and then sign it on your device. You can also trade directly on Binance through the app.

a-1.png
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More details: https://blog.safepal.io/safepal-instant-swap/

The construction of the device is not great. You can feel it is made of cheap materials and it is not going to withstand much abuse.

If you are looking for a wallet it is at least a far superior choice over Ledger. Though next time around I will give Redbeard's Samourai wallet solution a go. The primary concern being that if the company goes under, you may not be able to recover the wallet. That is why having a second wallet is a good redundancy and it currently costs half the price of a Ledger X for two SafePals.

On security I can't say anything of any authority. They have posted some details here:


This is the most authoritative overview of the security:

 
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Blade Runner

Hummingbird
Orthodox
The ngrave is very expensive but seems to be the most promising and secure cold wallet. It has been delayed apparently, and will be released in the first half of the coming year.
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Pelican
Catholic
Gold Member
Question on the Ledger hack--I bought a Nano S about a year ago but never actually got around to setting it up (weirdly I was just thinking a day or two before the hack news broke that I needed to do it). I assume I should be good if I set it up now as the only record of me owning one would be on Amazon which wasn't part of the hack? Will still be extremely wary of phishing attempts etc but not a secret that I own crypto in general as I do have a Coinbase account with KYC.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
Question on the Ledger hack--I bought a Nano S about a year ago but never actually got around to setting it up (weirdly I was just thinking a day or two before the hack news broke that I needed to do it). I assume I should be good if I set it up now as the only record of me owning one would be on Amazon which wasn't part of the hack? Will still be extremely wary of phishing attempts etc but not a secret that I own crypto in general as I do have a Coinbase account with KYC.

I guess it would depend. The main listings for Ledger on Amazon are fulfilled by Ledger. There are other listings of Ledgers by other sellers.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Catholic
Gold Member
Question on the Ledger hack--I bought a Nano S about a year ago but never actually got around to setting it up (weirdly I was just thinking a day or two before the hack news broke that I needed to do it). I assume I should be good if I set it up now as the only record of me owning one would be on Amazon which wasn't part of the hack? Will still be extremely wary of phishing attempts etc but not a secret that I own crypto in general as I do have a Coinbase account with KYC.
Let's break it down by threat vector.

Ledger leak - your information was NOT in their database, so nothing to worry about there. They just ship boxes to Amazon and then they fulfill it.

Device security - Hardware wallets are independent of the purchase and require no PII, so no sweat here.

Amazon leak? It's possibly risky to have breadcrumbs on Amazon, but not much you can do it about it now.

Coinbase account? Regular readers know my thoughts on this. All things considered this is probably your most concerning threat vector since a leak of their database WOULD 100% put you at risk.

Phishing - always possible, so always be aware. Ledger will NEVER ask for your private keys over email. There is no reason for them to ever email/call/mail you, so if you receive something, it's probably fake. ALWAYS verify with their website. It might be useful to make segregated emails with simplelogin.io.

In any case you can see why having specific crypto emails/phone numbers/addresses makes sense. It's best to be defensive BEFORE leaks instead of scrambling around after.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
January 1st, 2021 With the BTC weekly 5 Wave count in full parabolic Wave 3 impulsing if it blows through the Fibonacci Major A-B 2.618 Extension of 31,750 the likely Wave 3 terminus in this parabolic run becomes Fibonacci Extension 3.618 at 42,400. Then a full fib Wave 4 pull back to 2.618 (31.750+/-) the a Wave 5 Extension to Fibonacci 4.236 at 49,000. Fibonacci Weekly Chart Extension levels are most indicative given the current Wave 3 Parabolic impulse move up.

Per Mike Adams:
  • Bitcoin headed for USD$30,000 is a vote against central bank power and a sign that human beings desire to be free.

1609540489386.png
 
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Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
What's your opinion on chainlink?
I had to switch from the Chainlink daily to the 4hour candles chart to see the 200 and 100 (4 Hour Time Intervals) Major Moving Averages. After the Bitstamp Initial Coin Listing pop it dumped to 9.79 on 4 Nov then a proper run up to 16.39 on 23 November. Then a brutal dump to 11.31 on 26 November and basically oscillating the Red 200 Moving Averge in a down Channel with a wicked and suspicious down Red Candle Wick (Wicks are thinly traded pumps and in this case severe Dump) to 8.14 on 23 December back up to Close at 11.81 on 1 Jan 21. So it makes a Sine wave Above and Below the Red 200 4 Hour Moving Average current bouncing between the 9 Green, Blue 20, Yellow 50 Clustered Moving Averages and the Purple 100 Moving Average.

Looks like it is another Alt Coin that has suffered a down Trend as people pulling value out of Alts to Ride the Bitcoin Wave 3 Parabolic Impulse move up. Considering Chainlink is a darling of many DeFi projects as an Oracle to Legacy Data - it is exhibiting an alarming amount of Pump and Dump behavior. Chainlink is still in a strong down channel and I would expect more Dump Candle Wicks before the Trend Channel changes upward which would mean some consistent closes above the Upper Trend Channel line. If you really like the project there are likely to be better entry points back around the 9-20-50 MA cluster or lower. It is way too erratic to day trade and do not use leverage as there are clear signs of Whales pumping and dumping.

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Mikeyd03

Woodpecker
XMR getting hammered for obvious reasons (delistings)......I remain firm in my conviction that this is a coin worth accumulating over the next couple of years. The one counter I have heard from XMR is the inability to verify due to anonymity, which makes sense.......time will tell. I will continue accumulating at lower levels. Privacy coins have a big future in my opinion (even with exchange delistings).
 

JohnnySmith

Sparrow
Atheist
XMR getting hammered for obvious reasons (delistings)......I remain firm in my conviction that this is a coin worth accumulating over the next couple of years. The one counter I have heard from XMR is the inability to verify due to anonymity, which makes sense.......time will tell. I will continue accumulating at lower levels. Privacy coins have a big future in my opinion (even with exchange delistings).
Why XRM over Chainlink?
 

Dr Mantis Toboggan

Pelican
Catholic
Gold Member
Let's break it down by threat vector.

Ledger leak - your information was NOT in their database, so nothing to worry about there. They just ship boxes to Amazon and then they fulfill it.

Device security - Hardware wallets are independent of the purchase and require no PII, so no sweat here.

Amazon leak? It's possibly risky to have breadcrumbs on Amazon, but not much you can do it about it now.

Coinbase account? Regular readers know my thoughts on this. All things considered this is probably your most concerning threat vector since a leak of their database WOULD 100% put you at risk.

Phishing - always possible, so always be aware. Ledger will NEVER ask for your private keys over email. There is no reason for them to ever email/call/mail you, so if you receive something, it's probably fake. ALWAYS verify with their website. It might be useful to make segregated emails with simplelogin.io.

In any case you can see why having specific crypto emails/phone numbers/addresses makes sense. It's best to be defensive BEFORE leaks instead of scrambling around after.

Thanks--yeah, if I were starting now I wouldn't go through Coinbase but didn't know about the risks it faces when I first started with crypto. Now that I have an account and have done all their KYC stuff I'm not sure that there's any way to put the toothpaste back in the tube anyway.
 
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