Crypto lounge thread

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
Fun week this week both BTC and ETH Completed a .618 Fibonacci retrace of the now Primary Wave 1 Swing Highs to the now Primary Wave 2 Swing low both bottom turning into an exciting Primary Impulsing Wave 3 UP. So I cleaned up the Charts and set the new Fibonacci extension tools from the Primary wave 1 Start and BTC at 10K to the Primary Wave 1 High to 65K and Wave 2 low at 30K, ETH Start of Primary wave 1 at March 2020 Covid Low of 28 to the Primary Wave 1 Swing High of 4,384 to Primary Wave 2 Swing low of 1,728.

Bottom line this is a great entry point for both BTC and ETH and any of the Alts that track BTC like LTC, BCH etc.

The Primary Wave 3 most probable Fibonacci Extension target is 1.618 in Bold.

BTC Fibonacci Extension Targets:

4.236 288,600
3.618 250,800
2.618 189,800
1.618 128,700
1.0 91,000
.786 78,000
.618 67,700
.5 60,500
View attachment 31144

ETH Fibonacci Extension Targets:

4.236 19,789
3.618 17,154
2.618 12,890
1.618 8,626
1.0 5,991
.786 5,079
.618 4,362
.5 3,859
View attachment 31145

And LTC 1.618 Primary impulsing Wave 3 Target UP is $746.

View attachment 31146

Errata - I just double checked and I used the March 2020 BTC Primary wave 1 starting swing low of 3858 for the starting data point of the BTC Fibonacci Extension graph. 3,858 to 65K was quite a Primary Wave 1 Run in over 1 year. The new Primary Wave 3 UP will be a thrilling ride as well.
 

Deepdiver

Crow
Gold Member
In Elliot wave theory, wave 3 is typically (or even always?) the largest wave, yes?
Typically 1.618 times any Fractal Degree Wave 1 however I have seen 2.618 and 3.618 wave 3 runs on S&P futures so 1.618 is the safe bet but if we exceed 1.618 the next higher Fib Extension targets are quite possible. Palm Beach Research asserts a secret halving in BTC market this year as Miners like Hut8 in North America with access to fresh institutional investment capital and cheap Canadian Hydro power are now HODLing their mined BTC creating shortages of fresh mined BTC which will explode the Value of Hut8, MSTR (Micro Strategies) and TESLA et.al. as BTC makes its ultimate run to $500K - but we will have to go through Primary waves 3, 4 and 5 and then a Primary ABC at the top of Primary 5 before we see the 500K stratospheric target - their buy up to for BTC is $75K and ETH is $3K FYI...
 
I can easily understand almost any concept in TA but I can never get Elliot Wave Theory. It just seems like complete bullshit but half the people that do TA for a living swear by it.
 
Wouldn't count ETH out as it is the poster coin for Globohomo and there will be a moving cap with 2.0. I agree that LTC is not a very good risk adjusted bet, ADA is much better. It's also easier to go from $1 to $10 than it is to go from $200 to $1000 because of market psychology. Some of best performing coins were the ones that said they would bend the knee to central banks and governments. Cardano proudly talks about working with governments, ETH is Goldman Sachs #1 choice, XRP has bent over for central banks since forever and was best performing coin of 2017. Meanwhile badboy XMR has been shunned and crabbing sideways in a bull market.

I was wondering about this too - it's like all of sudden globohomo / the usual suspects are all embracing ETH recently over BTC, made me wonder why and if they have some sort of agenda with the new PoS system / 2.0 etc. Of course, I'll still by buying more ETH but makes me wonder what's in store for in long term.
 
You earn 5% a day? So every two weeks your holdings double?
Of course not, those rates are annual.

I thought the same until I figured out they pay out interest in Nexo tokens. I want to be payed out in the same coin I put up or at the very least a respectable stable coin like PAX/USDC/BUSD. After this year wouldn't surprise me if nexo lost 90% of it's value. At least with Blockfi they are paying you out in USD or equivalent stable coin I think.
You get a higher rate taking it in Nexo tokens, but you can get it in the same coin as well.
 

Kieran

Pelican
Gold Member
Deepdiver thanks for posting those. Do you intend to sell into tether or something at around those 1.618 levels, or are there other factors that you'll be looking at as we get further along that might indicate that we're either going higher or unlikely to reach that level? Thanks again.
 
2 previous cycles went 20x from when the bull run started, plan b stock to flow predicts 150k, stock to flow x predicts 288k, I'd say the chances of 250k before the big drop are better than the top being 125k. I also think if I take profits at 125k, the chances of me buying it lower than 125k next year are high. Looking forward to others input.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I thought the same until I figured out they pay out interest in Nexo tokens. I want to be payed out in the same coin I put up or at the very least a respectable stable coin like PAX/USDC/BUSD. After this year wouldn't surprise me if nexo lost 90% of it's value. At least with Blockfi they are paying you out in USD or equivalent stable coin I think.

NEXO pay out in kind, and higher than BlockFi without term. You can take interest in NEXO or in kind.

The amount you get depends on the coin and how much NEXO you have. If you have 10%+ of your balance in NEXO then you get 6% in kind on crypto or 8% in NEXO. I chose for the latter and it's done a lot better than the market. I think that may have done a 40X in the time BTC has done 5X. Then there are this years' dividends on top of that, for which I am looking at 50-100% of my principal. But also expect this to drop horribly once to bull is over. Anything that is based on people holding an asset just to earn more, to deposit, to earn more... is going to get hammered well below BTC.

Youholder has a few nice rates, especially 8.2% on Pax Gold. That should come in handy in the not to distant future. I haven't seen any DeFi offerings for gold.

But I pulled most of my funds out of centralised lending. In DeFi you can get 20%+ on ETH, as opposed to 4-6% on centralised.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
2 previous cycles went 20x from when the bull run started, plan b stock to flow predicts 150k, stock to flow x predicts 288k, I'd say the chances of 250k before the big drop are better than the top being 125k. I also think if I take profits at 125k, the chances of me buying it lower than 125k next year are high. Looking forward to others input.

I have re-jigged my chart to have a more consistent parallel with the '17 and '13 bubbles. Still getting $240k.

The two lime green lines are the trend of the mid '17 and '21 (hopefully) corrections. They both run roughly at 12 degrees, followed by the downside at around 17 degrees

Screenshot at 2021-05-27 20-38-25.png

The darker green line here is the trajectory of the mid-2013 correction. When the 2017 correction trajectory hits the 2013 one, there was a correction.

Screenshot at 2021-05-27 20-42-32.png

Another observation is the recent top was not a parabolic top, it's a round top. 2013 and 2017 both saw sharp parabolic tops.

It's kind of difficult to see where the money is going to come from to take us to $240k. But you could have said that this time in 2013 and 2017. I don't know if I misread a headline, but seems Tesla may have bought $1.5B more, another large tech company bought in and Carl Ichan is talking about throwing $1.5B in.

2017's $20K was roughly a 20X on 2013's top. $240K would be a 12X.

Sorry re-read what I wrote and I am disappointed in myself.
5% per month paid out daily. Similar to a 30 day CD.

Where are you seeing the 5% monthly? I get 8% year.
 

The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
Where are you seeing the 5% monthly? I get 8% year.

Microsoft Teams Notification 2021-05-27 11-21-20.png
Screenshot of my fixed terms wallet with the mention of the interest rate compounding daily. Unless i'm missing something and being mildly retarded? It looks like a 30 day crypto CD that pays out 5.25%. This must have changed because it used to be just 5%.

Even the payouts seem in line with what I have parked at the moment. The interest payment on this was ETH 0.00005775 and I can see in the notifications drop down that it does indeed get paid out daily. Comes about to 0.00179025 ETH for the month.
 

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View attachment 31179
Screenshot of my fixed terms wallet with the mention of the interest rate compounding daily. Unless i'm missing something and being mildly retarded? It looks like a 30 day crypto CD that pays out 5.25%. This must have changed because it used to be just 5%.

Even the payouts seem in line with what I have parked at the moment. The interest payment on this was ETH 0.00005775 and I can see in the notifications drop down that it does indeed get paid out daily. Comes about to 0.00179025 ETH for the month.
The fixed term is monthly. The interest rate is 5% annually. Do the math if you don't believe it.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
The fixed term is monthly. The interest rate is 5% annually. Do the math if you don't believe it.

( 0.00005775×365 ) = 0.02107875 ÷ 0.39284263 = 0.0536% <- probably about 5.5% with compounding

They haven't labeled it very well. Usually they will list something like APY. I've just accidentally put myself in for a 1 month fixed term and it's not apparent what the actual rate is. It say 1% bonus, I presume per year.

You can get better rates from places like - https://app.beefy.finance/

Though the rates have been hammered. Was getting 30% APY on ETH recently.
 
I have re-jigged my chart to have a more consistent parallel with the '17 and '13 bubbles. Still getting $240k.

The two lime green lines are the trend of the mid '17 and '21 (hopefully) corrections. They both run roughly at 12 degrees, followed by the downside at around 17 degrees

View attachment 31175

The darker green line here is the trajectory of the mid-2013 correction. When the 2017 correction trajectory hits the 2013 one, there was a correction.

View attachment 31176

Another observation is the recent top was not a parabolic top, it's a round top. 2013 and 2017 both saw sharp parabolic tops.

It's kind of difficult to see where the money is going to come from to take us to $240k. But you could have said that this time in 2013 and 2017. I don't know if I misread a headline, but seems Tesla may have bought $1.5B more, another large tech company bought in and Carl Ichan is talking about throwing $1.5B in.

2017's $20K was roughly a 20X on 2013's top. $240K would be a 12X.



Where are you seeing the 5% monthly? I get 8% year.

I've had 4 years to think about the next BTC top and I've always found it more believable that it could do a 5 to 10x from previous ATH. The trend is 31x in 2013, 20x in 2017 so 5-10x or a bit higher is conceivable in 2021. Institutions are saying 130-160k is probably the top. I plan to cash out 70% at 100-130k then the rest if it goes above 200k. Then buy back in a year into bear market, although it's tough to say how long this bull market could last with all the institutional/mainstream onboarding and sustained monetary expansion.

The way I will determine the top of this market is by look at the rate of climb or acceleration of price. In the last bull cycle the price of BTC doubled at a new ATH every 3-4 months. What was telling was that at the end of the cycle in 2017 the price doubled from one ATH to the next within 1 month. That's what I'll be looking for this time.
 
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Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member

Next calls -
  • Call of Data - temp. rewards for people using the system
  • Ethereum and EVM support for Binance Smart Chain, Polygon, Tomochain, Fantom
  • Easy staking and conversion of BLZ tokens via Metamask-style browser plugin
  • Mainnet upgrade to Cosmos Stargate bringing about more features
  • Instant interoperability across all Cosmos Chains via IBC
  • Mainnet for Oracles and file storage
  • First Defi DEX on Bluzelle

Sounds good, but I still think BLZ is a good play for 2025, rather than 2021.
 
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