I recently received the following request:
Can you make a litecoin and bitcoin chart for us ? Also do you think we will get a dead cat bounce relief rally in june or july ? How are you navigating the top 10 crypto markets over the next 3 to 6 months ?
I think this may be a good time to take a look at the big picture including the Longer Term 12 Year and Six month S&P Futures Charts and what if any impact they may have on the BTC, ETH and LTC (and ALTs) longer term trends,
With the Fed continually printing multiple new trillions in electronic FedBux it has extended one of the longest Stock Market Bull Runs in History - Why the S&P Futures - this is where the Mega Institutions all trade. The entire Crypto Market is a fraction of what is traded daily on the S&P Futures 7/24 Globex Markets with pauses each day for settlement in the 4PM to 5PM NYC timeframe.
The S&P 12 Year Chart can still run higher with the Feds willingness to support the current MMT Spending initiatives to redefined Infrastructure etc., for continuous Fed propping up all markets with ongoing liquidity injections.
The 12 Year ES1! Continuous S&P Futures Bull Run is topping a 12 Year Major 5 Wave (Larger Primary Wave 1) Fractal move from the March 2009 Swing Low to the Current ATH with an ABC Primary Wave 2 .618 Fibonacci Correction to $2K likely beginning soon this quarter or perhaps next.
The Shorter Term S&P futures 8 Month chart is topping a 5 Wave (Orange ABCDE) 5th Fractal Leg with the technical top of 4252. The 5th Waves being the most indeterminant the 5th Can be .618, 1.0, 1.31, 1.41 or 1.51 times wave 1 in all Fractal degrees making the timing of the exact Fractal 5th waves top indeterminant as well though Fibonacci Mathematics still govern the 5th wave moves. To deal with this R.N Elliott would continuously calculate the smaller degree Fractal 5th waves down to the technical target on the smallest degrees until he was sure of the topping hour. Notice how the 5th Orange E leg has been respecting as support the 1st 25% deviation trendline below the Green RMS Root Mean Square Mid trend line:
Regarding Bitcoin we are are still in a massive Up Trend from the Dec 2018 swing low of 3128 to the recent 65K ATH and the recent ABC 30K .618 retrace with BTC building support with current resistance at the 1st 25% deviation Trend line below the Green Mid Trend line.
After BTC breaks through the current trend line resistance typically on the 3rd major touch of the trend line it will continue and do the same with the Red 200DMA, Gold 50 DMA and Orange 100 DMA with likely resistance at the 65K all time high moving in a Primary Wave 3 in 5 sub-waves up to the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Target range of 126K to 130K over the next year.
As posted previously ETH has completed a Primary Wave one from the 13March20 $90 Swing low to its ATH and already bottomed and is in the 3rd Primary Wave Dip moving up to its 1.618 Fibonacci Extension target of 8.6K also over the next year. Current Support is the Purple 100DMA and Resistance at the Gold 50 DMA which parallels just above the 1st 25% deviation trend line below the Green Midpoint Trend line.
LTC Reflects similar characteristics to BTC making a 13March20 low of 25 to its ATH and ABC .618 Correction as the larger Primary Wave 2 respecting the lowest Base Trendline with Current resistance on the Blue 20DMA building support above the Baseline at the current DIP prior to its Primary Fractal 3rd Wave 1.618 Fibonacci Extension run to 786 over the next year.
The pressing question is will an 8 Month S&P Futures ABC retrace to 3600 and/or larger 12 Year S&P Futures ABC retrace to 2000 impact the Cryptos markets? So far they are not fully correlated as BTC and the Alts all Corrected with Michael Saylor and Large Institutions all buying the current BTC Dip in continual accumulation mode. The S&P Futures are a much more massively traded on 7x24 Globex worldwide markets and Margin calls on any overleveraged S&P Futures traders could require some Crypto, Gold and other Commodities liquidations to cover Stock market Futures Margins calls though any Crypto selling likely to coincide with the Crypto Primary 3rd wave fractal 5 sub-waves 2 and 4 dips. HTH.
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