Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?

Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?

  • I own physical Gold

    Votes: 33 9.6%
  • I own physical Silver

    Votes: 54 15.7%
  • I own Both

    Votes: 103 29.9%
  • I own neither

    Votes: 130 37.7%
  • I only own paper metals

    Votes: 25 7.2%

  • Total voters
    345

oilbreh

Woodpecker
The KEY THING to watch for when silver will moon is the Gold to Silver Ratio. It is at all times high. Aka, you need the most silver in history to buy 1oz of gold. its bouncing in the 115 range right now. once this starts crashing from its semi parabolic move, is when its time to jump into the silver ETFs. Silver will lag on the initial move up as we have seen, but it is the higher beta to gold (moves more in terms of percentage). The interesting part is all the TA experts say the higher it goes the higher it will crash, so its will probably go to the 10oz range of silver per oz of gold (though might be hard to time I suggest scaling in steps as its in 20-40)

There are some that say silver is no longer money but I am not sure on the validity of that. These are the same people that point to golds historic use case, which was always side by side with silver. The only time aside from now we removed it in the US was after the civil war, and I think that was mostly done to hurt southern states plus confusion about a set rate vs gold.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
oilbreh said:
The KEY THING to watch for when silver will moon is the Gold to Silver Ratio. It is at all times high. Aka, you need the most silver in history to buy 1oz of gold. its bouncing in the 115 range right now. once this starts crashing from its semi parabolic move, is when its time to jump into the silver ETFs. Silver will lag on the initial move up as we have seen, but it is the higher beta to gold (moves more in terms of percentage). The interesting part is all the TA experts say the higher it goes the higher it will crash, so its will probably go to the 10oz range of silver per oz of gold (though might be hard to time I suggest scaling in steps as its in 20-40)
...

^^ So a 10oz silver to 1oz Gold ration is the time to buy ? Gold is 1,497/oz and Silver is 12.79 so Did you mean 100x?
 

oilbreh

Woodpecker
NoMoreTO said:
oilbreh said:
The KEY THING to watch for when silver will moon is the Gold to Silver Ratio...

^^ So a 10oz silver to 1oz Gold ration is the time to buy ? Gold is 1,497/oz and Silver is 12.79 so Did you mean 100x?
That is the time to trade our silver for a more compact gold.
A 11x/12x of current price would put silver at that ratio, but then again if this happens gold would have gone up too. So with silver you will get whatever move gold does (probably around 2/3x) times the silver gold to ration smack down. so 22-36x.

All said cant hurt to have a bit of gold too now even if its overvalued vs silver rn nothing is certain. Silver is more industry used probably more than ever so idk how much that plays into the current picture vs before. The thing is silver hit 50 dollars during the 80s and with inflation that prob more like 75. So a 100 dollar silver is not that crazy once you think about it.

For people new to the game, schiff was schilling gold for decades (bad timing if you just want to make money), but the guys that are NOT gold salesmen are finally saying now is the time to get ready as the recipe is ripe. (0 rates, cracks in economy). The key is that the boom comes with the SOLUTION that the fed and banks create (CNTRL P) as thats all they can do.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
In the end, fundamental analysis always trumps technical analysis, but this is certainly something to ponder. He obviously expects massive deflation. It is well worth reading the entire article to be fully informed. This chart is far more legible in the article. Yes, this monthly chart shows gold possibly going to $830 by 2024.

Massive deflation? This just might do the trick:

The U.S. Economy Could Contract by 24% Next Quarter, Goldman Sachs Says
By Alexandra Scaggs
March 20, 2020 10:08 am ET

Goldman Sachs is now projecting a massive U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.

The bank is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That’s because U.S. economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus.

Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. J.P. Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter U.S. growth.

If Goldman’s economists are right, that means the U.S. is approaching the sharpest single-quarter decline in gross domestic product since the U.S. started measuring GDP in its current form. The current record for the largest quarterly slowdown was in the first quarter of 1958, the bank says, when GDP declined 10%.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-...4-next-quarter-goldman-sachs-says-51584713292
 

oilbreh

Woodpecker
Also to add, the whole thing of dealers charging 5 dollars over spot might end soon. Basically if you buy a futures contract on COMEX, you can get 5 1000oz silver bars delivered for the market price of future contract on expiry. Thats basically spot plus delivery fees. So maybe once COMEX starts actually making deliveries (most futures contract are sold before expiration) the price will close the gap.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Crazy stuff going on. All the online brokers are on backorder or stopping orders completely. The stores near me have closed doors.

From Peter Schiff's Website:

ATTENTION:

*NOTE: Due to extreme order volumes, we are experiencing extended shipping times. We are temporarily increasing our order minimums until the market normalizes.

15 oz Gold or 500 oz Silver

Please complete the following form or email [email protected] for quote information. We will try to reply as soon as possible, but appreciate patience as it could take a few days to reply. You are also welcome to call our direct line, but please leave a voicemail if we don’t immediately pick up.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
redbeard said:
Crazy stuff going on. All the online brokers are on backorder or stopping orders completely. The stores near me have closed doors.

From Peter Schiff's Website:

ATTENTION:

*NOTE: Due to extreme order volumes, we are experiencing extended shipping times. We are temporarily increasing our order minimums until the market normalizes.

15 oz Gold or 500 oz Silver

Please complete the following form or email [email protected] for quote information. We will try to reply as soon as possible, but appreciate patience as it could take a few days to reply. You are also welcome to call our direct line, but please leave a voicemail if we don’t immediately pick up.

Almost every trusted dealer's website I visit inside the EU has interrupted business or is now trading with higher margins and not offering delivery.
Something is not normal at all. As I said this might be just supply and transportation off but i fear there is something bigger going on.

Having said that i still believe it s ok to pay 10% more premium for a numismatic bullion since the rate is a 1400 eur/oz , when situation will be back i fear that it will be at 1700 or so. so even with high premiums it s worth it. Time will tell.

Edit : I ve also seen that some semi-numismatic coins with low-demand and with a small premium are almost as expansive as the premium-pumped bullions such as 20F Napoleon ,Vreneli etc.... I m talking about pre 1865 italian kingdoms gold.

That s a good compromise for those wanting to keep collecting.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
I had this experience when ordering last week. The guy was telling me to literally provide payment that morning and how he was bumping the price in the afternoon.

I had some trouble sourcing through online dealers (kitco.com) and in turn found a local guy.

I think there will either be a huge backlog of orders on silver, and that the physical silver value will continue to rise as the true supply on the street is fixed or 'sticky' in the short to medium term.
 

PixelFree

Kingfisher
oilbreh said:
The KEY THING to watch for when silver will moon is the Gold to Silver Ratio. It is at all times high. Aka, you need the most silver in history to buy 1oz of gold. its bouncing in the 115 range right now. once this starts crashing from its semi parabolic move, is when its time to jump into the silver ETFs.

Couldn't this also mean that gold is massively undervalued, rather than silver overvalued?
 

PixelFree

Kingfisher
Also, I think it's the right time to re-watch this (from 2016):


It's spelling out the scenario we are going through right now with eery accuracy.

They just announced 'double welfare' in Australia.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Well I agree some of the steps and pieces are threre, but its hard to say when a bubble will pop, and not every bubble pops. This is the difficulty about FIAT currency, but I Agree that eventually it will surely fall.

The Fed is buying up Muni Bonds, Trump spoke strongly about not buying equities today, but at the same time they are going to try and make it rain and pay everyone for nothing.

I think we are heading to negative interest rates. Its a strange place to be, but I don't think we are quite at a US Currency collapse yet. Still I'm long on Prec. Metals and out of Market.

I think we are heading for Negative Interest Rates. Its a strange thing to imagine but I think that is where we are going. They will try and create a digital currency 'eCurrency' which will devalue. It'll be interesting to see if they try this.

 

Louis IX

Pelican
So , you would recommend me to get some gold / silver if possible ? I have enough cash at the moment , but looking for a way to "liquidate" the little money i have in bank.

I am even worried that the sale of physical gold/silver from dealers will be forced to close after the economical reset
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Polniy_Sostav said:
So , you would recommend me to get some gold / silver if possible ? I have enough cash at the moment , but looking for a way to "liquidate" the little money i have in bank.

I am even worried that the sale of physical gold/silver from dealers will be forced to close after the economical reset

If you're planning for the worst I definitely think there is a place for a few rolls of silver coins.

You can imagine if the economic system of paper money starts to unwind there will be a true run on precious metals. Even now people are looking for them, but imagine the line up. The truth is there won't be enough physical metals to circulate for the demand.

I went for some 10oz bullion through a local dealer. It will take 15 - 60 days for it to actually come in as it is on order.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
NoMoreTO said:
Polniy_Sostav said:
So , you would recommend me to get some gold / silver if possible ? I have enough cash at the moment , but looking for a way to "liquidate" the little money i have in bank.

I am even worried that the sale of physical gold/silver from dealers will be forced to close after the economical reset

If you're planning for the worst I definitely think there is a place for a few rolls of silver coins.

You can imagine if the economic system of paper money starts to unwind there will be a true run on precious metals. Even now people are looking for them, but imagine the line up. The truth is there won't be enough physical metals to circulate for the demand.

I went for some 10oz bullion through a local dealer. It will take 15 - 60 days for it to actually come in as it is on order.

I am ok to wait for the physical order once the post will be reopened. I just do not want to buy when prices will have gone through the roof.
I think a bank run is very possible in many countries in the world - or the state confiscating some money in people's accounts.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Tail Gunner said:
Tail Gunner said:
In the end, fundamental analysis always trumps technical analysis, but this is certainly something to ponder. He obviously expects massive deflation. It is well worth reading the entire article to be fully informed. This chart is far more legible in the article. Yes, this monthly chart shows gold possibly going to $830 by 2024.

Massive deflation? This just might do the trick:

The U.S. Economy Could Contract by 24% Next Quarter, Goldman Sachs Says
By Alexandra Scaggs
March 20, 2020 10:08 am ET

Goldman Sachs is now projecting a massive U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.

The bank is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That’s because U.S. economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus.

Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. J.P. Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter U.S. growth.

If Goldman’s economists are right, that means the U.S. is approaching the sharpest single-quarter decline in gross domestic product since the U.S. started measuring GDP in its current form. The current record for the largest quarterly slowdown was in the first quarter of 1958, the bank says, when GDP declined 10%.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-...4-next-quarter-goldman-sachs-says-51584713292

But wouldn't that mean that given Fed printing there is a larger money supply chasing a smaller set of goods and services?

It also depends on money velocity. People will be eager to spend their money on necessary consumer goods (food, medicine, supplies, etc) less so on assets (real estate, equities, etc) and much less so on luxury goods (vacations, yachts, fancy cars).

So, prices will crash in some industries and skyrocket in others - even though this is both a negative demand and supply shock, the demand for necessary consumer goods is relatively inelastic and would likely see much higher prices post printing than luxury goods.

The question is will gold be viewed as an asset or a necessary good? In terms of gold, the price of luxury goods will go down but your gold may not necessarily buy you more vitamin C or canned chicken than it does now.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Arado said:
The question is will gold be viewed as an asset or a necessary good? In terms of gold, the price of luxury goods will go down but your gold may not necessarily buy you more vitamin C or canned chicken than it does now.

Gold has a very long history as a currency and store of value. Gold will always have value. Yes, if you are starving you will take a meal over an ounce of Gold, but this doesn't invalidate Golds value.

For instance, you might be starving, but your Tactical Shot gun won't help you eat either. You could buy up all the Vitamin C or Canned Chicken, but my guess is you've already done that to some extent. Or it is sold out. Physial Gold and Silver are seeing a similar run. Rather than wonder why the crazy people are buying the hand sanitzer (Physical precious metals) consider getting some now.

Where physical Gold or Silver come into play is exactly here. Gold in theory, will be able to get you Food OR a Tactical Shotgun. What gold does is eliminate Barter and provide double coincidence of wants. This is the doomsday scenario, but I think worthwhile to think through. A few rolls of silver dollars or some 10oz bars is not a bad idea.

The other area where the store of value of Gold/Silver other Precious Metals come into play is as a store of value. When they print money, the value of the money will go down, due to increased supply with equal amounts of Gold, Silver, Land, or Even Consumer Products in circulation. You might think that your Silver is going up in value. But it is the true store of value, the truth is your paper money is just deflating.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
NoMoreTO said:
Arado said:
The question is will gold be viewed as an asset or a necessary good? In terms of gold, the price of luxury goods will go down but your gold may not necessarily buy you more vitamin C or canned chicken than it does now.

Gold has a very long history as a currency and store of value. Gold will always have value. Yes, if you are starving you will take a meal over an ounce of Gold, but this doesn't invalidate Golds value.

For instance, you might be starving, but your Tactical Shot gun won't help you eat either. You could buy up all the Vitamin C or Canned Chicken, but my guess is you've already done that to some extent. Or it is sold out. Physial Gold and Silver are seeing a similar run. Rather than wonder why the crazy people are buying the hand sanitzer (Physical precious metals) consider getting some now.

Where physical Gold or Silver come into play is exactly here. Gold in theory, will be able to get you Food OR a Tactical Shotgun. What gold does is eliminate Barter and provide double coincidence of wants. This is the doomsday scenario, but I think worthwhile to think through. A few rolls of silver dollars or some 10oz bars is not a bad idea.

The other area where the store of value of Gold/Silver other Precious Metals come into play is as a store of value. When they print money, the value of the money will go down, due to increased supply with equal amounts of Gold, Silver, Land, or Even Consumer Products in circulation. You might think that your Silver is going up in value. But it is the true store of value, the truth is your paper money is just deflating.

Not at all disagreeing on the overall value of gold in a post currency collapse world. My main point was rather how does the purchasing power of gold move in a world in which there is deflation and inflation occurring simultaneously, but in different sectors?

The overall purchasing power of gold will remain stable or will increase as faith in fiat collapses (as its supply is limited by the manpower, energy, and innovation needed to mine more of it) however how certain goods are priced in gold will be extremely volatile looking 6 months out from here.

Silver will be going up as well (in fiat terms) but will have a different dynamic vs gold since it's also used in industry.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
I am betting hard on silver. To me it seems like the investment. I am hesitant about saying how its all gonna come crashing down, but when they inflate money like this, how can Silver and Gold not be a safe harbour. Historical Gap between Silver and Gold right now!

I don't care if this guy does his videos from a car with the ceiling falling down, he is my kind of guy.
 
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