Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?

Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?

  • I own physical Gold

    Votes: 33 9.6%
  • I own physical Silver

    Votes: 54 15.7%
  • I own Both

    Votes: 103 29.9%
  • I own neither

    Votes: 130 37.7%
  • I only own paper metals

    Votes: 25 7.2%

  • Total voters
    345

Louis IX

Pelican
DJ-Matt said:
All the big sites are sold out, guess I decided to buy silver way too late...

Your best chance now is to snatch some ugly bars or unrecognized coins as part of a "silver clearout " on the secondary market. But this is only if you want to have "various" coins , so it doesn't guarantee any resale , even at spot.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
robreke said:
If buying coins, always best to buy "common date" or any date coins and not, present year, as the premiums are usually cheaper.

And, this pretty much goes without saying, but never buy numismatic "collector" coins. Talk about crazy premiums.

This is for the investor part only and has proven to not be right.
Please look at the silver rate. It s been 10+ years that im hearing that "the gold/silver" ratio will close the gap - , and silver "will go up".
None of this is happening.

All those who paid for tubes of cheap recognized stuff ( eagles , maple leafs , philarmonikers , noah's ark ,or even that new athenian owl from the NZ mint etc) will never see the money back , in addition to having milk spots. Plus most of such people will never want to sell it for a loss, which is a sign of bad pride for me.
But they are the possibility of an instant flip.

I'd rather hunt for junk silver , although i do not know north-american coins so well. I guess some of them have a bit of premium. At least no milk spots in there. + you get the historical "bit".
Talking about what I know , junk silver always finds buyers.

What you need to do if you put a valuable amount of money into PM , or if you have passion for it (like I do) is to both be an investor and a collector.
The investor will only buy metal and will depend from the rate 100%.
The collector will waste his money for his own pleasure and will buy everything he likes.

I believe there is a middle ground. Rates are unpredictable , ditching the investing only plan for me. And budget is not unlimited , ditching the collector only plan for me.

So my advice is to have a 30% to 70% into one of the two , depending of what is your true nature. I am more of a collector , so i would tend towars 70% collecting / 30% bullion. But if you are the opposite , you can do 30% collecting, 70% bullion.

If you are in the middle , 50/50 etc.

For the years , you are right. There are very few people doing date runs and paying a premium for something which is the same than another thing makes very few sense , it s only pure collecting - so if you ever pay premium for numismatics or semi-numismatics you better get something rare with a different design , but against it s just my own view.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
NoMoreTO said:
Hide factor is big. And not posting to social media, other than RVF.

What the heck is "Team USA Silver" anyway. I guess some american who won a medal got a shipment then sold it off?

OK found it.
t is the job of the United States Olympic Committee to serve as the steward of the Olympic Movement in the United States. Founded in 1894 and headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colorado, the USOC oversees all US Teams for the Olympic Games, Paralympic Games, Youth Olympic Games, Pan American Games, and the Parapan American Games. Right now, 10 oz US Olympic Team Silver Bars are available to you online from JM Bullion.
Bar Highlights:
Arrives in heat-sealed plastic for individual bars or monster boxes with 50 bars!
Celebrate American athletes and the United States Olympic Team!
Contains 10 Troy oz of .999 pure silver.
Obverse features the official emblem of the United States Olympic Committee.
Reverse features the repeating design of the words Team USA.

There is a tradition to issue coins or bars for every Olympics or main sport event. It is usually sold with a relatively high premium , and over the years either finishes melt or sold with low premium to people interested only in its intrinsic value (it seems to be your case).

A prime example of that are the rather nice coins and bars from Sochi 2018 , almost all of them are on sale right now , compared to 2018 prices. Talking about premiums only , of course. I would actually buy them , because i love them , but not above 5% premium . which is not the case.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
John Michael Kane said:
Even better. Yes, at least a false wall or floor is better than having one in plain sight. Combined with a security system, cameras, lights and other deterrents, you'll keep your stash safe.

I don't think you need any of those.
My tactic is the "sacrifice". I would put 10% or so of what i have (which is actually not much). Should a robber come , then i would give him what is there , and say that the rest is at the bank or 800km away etc...

The most valuable you can hide very well , there are many clever hideouts in a home , using walls , undergrounds , garden etc

but definitely better to have a safe than to have it stored virtually in singapore or switzerland. What you don't touch , you don't have. My rule number 1 !
 

Louis IX

Pelican
NoMoreTO said:
Polniy_Sostav said:
NoMoreTO said:
- As discussed here, the spreads being charged by dealers are up, he admitted this and seemed to view it as part of the business. The banks seem to do the same thing, which I find odd. - Delivery now is 60 days plus.

Wholesalers are simply "forcing" the little dealers and coin shops to be in this situation. I wouldn't blame the dealers , and I think they only do this in order to survive. Of course Apmex and their equivalent in other big countries won't die but there are a lot of antic shops/numismatic shops who will be forced down to close.

As discussed earlier , to go around these premiums i have been piling on gold semi-numismatics or numismatics , premiums are not so much affected by the rate , and there is no "inventory" issue as there is less activity on this part of the coin market.

So when it comes to the physical supply, it seems that those who have silver/gold do not want to part with it anymore. The supply chain is slowed, miners might go out of business in the short term.

All of these factors to me lead to the hypothesis that the price of physical is on the ups.

When you say Numismatic, are you meaning high end coins? My understanding from the dealer & coin shop yesterday is that they are good in good times, but in poor times they go for the same as spot. Essentially the dealer is taking such a large premium on the transaction that more and more of these get sucked into the "spot price".


The concept is maybe more used in France or in Europe , so I am not sure if this is the right wording for North America.

I divide the coins into 3 categories , bullion (investment) , semi-numismatics , and numismatics :

Investment coins

They are the closest to spot possible. Typically from 0% to 5% premium (and in special cases like now with the virus, up to 10-12%)
Modern coins example : Maple Leaf , Krugerrand , Kangaroos , American Eagle , Austrian Philarmonics , Chinese Panda ..
"Old coins" example : 20 dollars Liberty , 20 dollars Saint Gaudens , 20 Francs Napoleon , 20 Francs Vreneli , 50 Pesos Mexico....

These coins are mostly bought by people who want an alternative to the banking system and who want to hedge themselves against inflation. And many times by people who want to make money on it on long term. Of course an american eagle will be more liquid in the USA than in France for example. And Vice-versa for a 20Francs napoleon. So always take into account the domestic market you're in , but usually the same models are recognized worldwide. A bar or ingot from a recognized brand usually falls in this category too.

Exit Strategy :
Buyback prices are competitive.Every shop will take it back , and even on the secondary market you will find a lot of interest.Spreads between buy and sell are very low.

Semi-Numismatics

Here we are talking about coins which are not necessarily high-end products but which command a higher premium than just investment coins. You can find them both at online dealers/pawn shops and also on professional auctions.

For modern coins :

This can be a specific year with low mintage from the recognized coins or a coin having a strangely different look than usual(Example : in 2017 , the 50th birthday of the krugerrand). There are people making date runs , and who will be happy to pay a bit more for a specific year . It can also be a new coin on the market , a new series starting (such as the last English Royal Mint series with Beasts) , you know that it s something to collect , and you know that there will be enough liquidity and buyers to be considered a mainstream product. However the premiums on the coins can vary , some coin is hard to get , or one of them is particularly beautiful , etc etc so you can have both collectors spending to have , and both investors trying to snatch them to create a little hype on the market and sell them for profit.

For old coins :


This can be coins which are not high-end stuff but which are not that common , but still exist in big numbers or are somewhat known by most investors/collectors , so the premiums are bigger but they keep being "ok".

Typically , im talking about 10% to 50% premiums , although a lot depends on the size and the format.

Exit Strategy : Most dealers would buy back this stuff , but only for spot value. So the spread is high between buy and sell. Use of secondary market is preferable , but dealers are the last resort.

Numismatics :

This is basically anything a pure investor won't touch , as premiums range from 50% to (estimated) 10000% . People buying this are people who want high-end collection and obscure coins , usually with very low mintage . It can also be antics coins , or coins from middle ages , etc etc. So that specific gold from German East Africa back in the days , or that specific Stella Dollar . You usually find these coins in professional auctions and big online dealers , and not at pawn shops or exchange offices. Sometimes prices are outrageous , but premiums are usually not affected by the rate , and if you make a good deal buying something with 1000% premium , then you make a good deal selling it for 1500%.

Exit Strategy : Selected trusted people on the secondary market , or professional auction sites.


I believe the 3 types of coins have their pros and cons , and a really solid porfolio must include all 3.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Polniy_Sostav said:
I believe the 3 types of coins have their pros and cons , and a really solid porfolio must include all 3.

Why must a solid portfolio contain all?

To me the Numistics are essentially a collectible luxury item. So personally I am not planning on having any, but I could see if you had a nice safe and some coins you would start to get into it.

Is it that the numistics have more upside in good times, and this balances things out vs. the bullion which is a hedge against inflationary monetary policy and a store of value.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Building on the discussion from this morning, physical gold and silver is a bad value right now because of high premiums -- so you may as well buy gold and silver coins with numismatic value. While I have not done any research myself, here is a transcript from someone who consulted a gold and silver expert. Collectibles premiums of around 12% to 15% are a great value -- and you can cash in when they rise again to a more typical 75% to 100% premium. Then you can sell them and buy generic coins after their premiums have gone back to normal.

And what he had to tell me about the physical gold market blew my mind. He said for the last two weeks, you can't buy a kilogram gold bar if you wanted to. There just aren't any. And man, kilogram gold bars, it was just — nobody wanted them. They had the lowest premium forever because it was a gold bar. It was really boring. The gold coins, like the Maple Leafs and the Pandas, were really cool, so they had a little bit higher premium on the spot. But now you can't get them either.

And so what's happened is the premium on bullion has gone up so high, that you might as well buy collectible gold because you're basically paying the same price for the collectibles as you would for bullion.

The difference is: The mark-up on bullion is typically significantly less. It's usually 3% to 5%. It's up around 12% to 15%. The premium on collectibles is usually way higher. So collectibles premiums are around 12% to 15%, and it's usually 75% to 100%.

So there's a lot of upside, I think, in collectible gold coins — and they're available. So instead of buying bullion, that you can't get anyway, you can get these collectible gold coins for the value of their gold plus the mark-up. It's just astonishing.

https://banyanhill.s3.amazonaws.com...Podcast/2020/Landing_Pages/040920_RWE_LP.html
 

Louis IX

Pelican
Tail Gunner said:
Building on the discussion from this morning, physical gold and silver is a bad value right now because of high premiums -- so you may as well buy gold and silver coins with numismatic value. While I have not done any research myself, here is a transcript from someone who consulted a gold and silver expert. Collectibles premiums of around 12% to 15% are a great value -- and you can cash in when they rise again to a more typical 75% to 100% premium. Then you can sell them and buy generic coins after their premiums have gone back to normal.

And what he had to tell me about the physical gold market blew my mind. He said for the last two weeks, you can't buy a kilogram gold bar if you wanted to. There just aren't any. And man, kilogram gold bars, it was just — nobody wanted them. They had the lowest premium forever because it was a gold bar. It was really boring. The gold coins, like the Maple Leafs and the Pandas, were really cool, so they had a little bit higher premium on the spot. But now you can't get them either.

And so what's happened is the premium on bullion has gone up so high, that you might as well buy collectible gold because you're basically paying the same price for the collectibles as you would for bullion.

The difference is: The mark-up on bullion is typically significantly less. It's usually 3% to 5%. It's up around 12% to 15%. The premium on collectibles is usually way higher. So collectibles premiums are around 12% to 15%, and it's usually 75% to 100%.

So there's a lot of upside, I think, in collectible gold coins — and they're available. So instead of buying bullion, that you can't get anyway, you can get these collectible gold coins for the value of their gold plus the mark-up. It's just astonishing.

https://banyanhill.s3.amazonaws.com...Podcast/2020/Landing_Pages/040920_RWE_LP.html

This guy said in much better English (obviously) what I was trying to say.
Now of course the problem is the exit strategy , there will be less buyers and dealers will take the coins back at spot or slightly less. So for this , you need secondary market "networks" to offload the coins.
Or else , just hope for a massive rise of the rate so these coins will become bullion to you or you can sell it at the price of bullion.

Also , once you know all the coins and you know your stuff in numismatics , you can find some good deals , even in a non-covid situation where premiums are actually normal.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
NoMoreTO said:
Polniy_Sostav said:
I believe the 3 types of coins have their pros and cons , and a really solid porfolio must include all 3.

Why must a solid portfolio contain all?

To me the Numistics are essentially a collectible luxury item. So personally I am not planning on having any, but I could see if you had a nice safe and some coins you would start to get into it.

Is it that the numistics have more upside in good times, and this balances things out vs. the bullion which is a hedge against inflationary monetary policy and a store of value.

It is simply in case of stagnation of the gold rate, so that you don't have all eggs on the same basket.
You are right to compare it to luxury items , i don't intend to show off , but i have paid two coins more than 500% premium (it is on small fine gold value anyway). Both were a good deal in my opinion. I don't plan to sell them as i m thinking to finish one collection - with boundaries defined very strictly before collecting , which is what is saving me from going mad and buying everything i like - but I know exactly that i would make a profit selling them should I do it once or buy the same coin again.

Luxury items , or "mainstream" items (bullion coins) , both have market particularities . Numismatics are less liquid , you have to be patient to find a buyer (or even a seller) and you are usually facing experts when it comes to sell or buy , so it is not something you can do if you don't have numismatics knowledge and passion.
I can understand people who only want the metal value , it is totally fine for me.

I have a friend who bought several tubes of silver 1oz coins very close to spot back in 2014 , now the value has dropped , so he has basically lost money and doesn't want to hear about PM's anymore. If he had a few % of his portfolio in collectibles , he might have been able to cut his loss .

Let's just hope everything goes back to normal. I ve promised myself that once my collection will be done , i will hunt for bullion bulk buys frantically , and will invest more than collect.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Polniy_Sostav said:
Tail Gunner said:
Building on the discussion from this morning, physical gold and silver is a bad value right now because of high premiums -- so you may as well buy gold and silver coins with numismatic value. While I have not done any research myself, here is a transcript from someone who consulted a gold and silver expert. Collectibles premiums of around 12% to 15% are a great value -- and you can cash in when they rise again to a more typical 75% to 100% premium. Then you can sell them and buy generic coins after their premiums have gone back to normal.

And what he had to tell me about the physical gold market blew my mind. He said for the last two weeks, you can't buy a kilogram gold bar if you wanted to. There just aren't any. And man, kilogram gold bars, it was just — nobody wanted them. They had the lowest premium forever because it was a gold bar. It was really boring. The gold coins, like the Maple Leafs and the Pandas, were really cool, so they had a little bit higher premium on the spot. But now you can't get them either.

And so what's happened is the premium on bullion has gone up so high, that you might as well buy collectible gold because you're basically paying the same price for the collectibles as you would for bullion.

The difference is: The mark-up on bullion is typically significantly less. It's usually 3% to 5%. It's up around 12% to 15%. The premium on collectibles is usually way higher. So collectibles premiums are around 12% to 15%, and it's usually 75% to 100%.

So there's a lot of upside, I think, in collectible gold coins — and they're available. So instead of buying bullion, that you can't get anyway, you can get these collectible gold coins for the value of their gold plus the mark-up. It's just astonishing.

https://banyanhill.s3.amazonaws.com...Podcast/2020/Landing_Pages/040920_RWE_LP.html

Now of course the problem is the exit strategy , there will be less buyers and dealers will take the coins back at spot or slightly less. So for this , you need secondary market "networks" to offload the coins. Or else , just hope for a massive rise of the rate so these coins will become bullion to you or you can sell it at the price of bullion.

In terms of the exit strategy, I think that you may have missed the point. Numismatics prices go in cycles. In bad times, the premiums on some numismatic coins get very low (so that they match bullion coins). That was his main point.

His inferred secondary point: when times are good again, the premiums of these numismatic coins go back to their normal 75% to 100% range. That is when you exit, by selling them to collectors at that normal 75% to 100% premium. So, not only do you get the increased bullion price, but you also get the huge increased numismatic premium.

It is akin to time arbitrage, instead of geographic arbitrage. Of course, if the EOTWAWKI occurs, your only interest is in the bullion value (and you have not paid any more for that, than if you had purchased bullion coins).
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Does anyone have a recommendation regarding zero or low rate fiat loans if one has good credit (to buy gold/btc, etc) ... just in case one needs to get in earlier than later, and paying fiat back later (next year) isn't an issue? Let's say in the range of 15-30k
 
Blade Runner said:
Does anyone have a recommendation regarding zero or low rate fiat loans if one has good credit (to buy gold/btc, etc) ... just in case one needs to get in earlier than later, and paying fiat back later (next year) isn't an issue? Let's say in the range of 15-30k

If your credit is good enough, you can get a 0% interest credit card that is good for 12-15 months at that rate. Usually PM dealers charge up to a 4% premium when paying with a credit card. If the credit card offers rewards points like cash back, you may reduce your cost basis by quite a bit, especially if they have a sign-up bonus with a lot of cashback. (Chase Sapphire Preferred $4k spend in 90 days, get $600 back for example, but no 0% APR). The key is to make sure that the credit card bank doesn't process the transactions as cash advances, but rather purchases. You need to find that out in advance before applying. Additionally, you need to be secure in your current source of income to be able to pay back the credit card right away in the case of a large, immediate cashback option like the Chase Sapphire, or if you're doing a 0% APR card, be able to account for 12 months worth of payments and enough to zero out the balance before it reverts back to standard APR. Be careful though, as this does have risks such as price plunges to BTC or gold that could end up with you not being able to sell those assets for a profit, right when your credit card loan is coming due.
 

Blade Runner

Kingfisher
Yes, strangely there are several nuances here: if you use a CC that's the best way because you aren't charged a fee like in a 18 month cash bank account (balance transfer) which is usually 3%, though I don't know it's maximum amount. But you are charged steep fees when buying something like btc with credit cards, and it is a tracked purchase.

I probably will just save up and continue to buy for the next few months with what I have instead of the leverage angle. But thanks for the response, JMK, cheers.
 

redbeard

Hummingbird
Moderator
Premiums are still pretty ridiculous.

Goldbugs, what do you think is really driving this demand? Obviously...

-stores are closed
-quantitative easing
-stock market volatility

But overall, do you think people are waking up to the scam that is our economic system? Or are they just "looking for a hedge" because Peter Schiff told them to?
 

Louis IX

Pelican
Managed to find 3 french roosters at 1.2% or so below spot. One dealer had it placed in the wrong category on their website.
With the shipping fees it makes it around 0.5% below spot.

I wish i had more liquidities. With average premiums around 8/10% for such coins while they are close to be the best alongside the swiss vreneli (swiss cross) .

Funnily enough I won't be shipped and it s already the 5th shipping I am waiting for. One for more than a month already.

In theory , if i ever receive them , and if the rate slightly goes up (around 51 Euro per gram) an instant flip could be possible with profit.

In any case I can't lose , i might as well bear the bullion value and not do anything.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
Tail Gunner said:
Polniy_Sostav said:
Tail Gunner said:
Building on the discussion from this morning, physical gold and silver is a bad value right now because of high premiums -- so you may as well buy gold and silver coins with numismatic value. While I have not done any research myself, here is a transcript from someone who consulted a gold and silver expert. Collectibles premiums of around 12% to 15% are a great value -- and you can cash in when they rise again to a more typical 75% to 100% premium. Then you can sell them and buy generic coins after their premiums have gone back to normal.

And what he had to tell me about the physical gold market blew my mind. He said for the last two weeks, you can't buy a kilogram gold bar if you wanted to. There just aren't any. And man, kilogram gold bars, it was just — nobody wanted them. They had the lowest premium forever because it was a gold bar. It was really boring. The gold coins, like the Maple Leafs and the Pandas, were really cool, so they had a little bit higher premium on the spot. But now you can't get them either.

And so what's happened is the premium on bullion has gone up so high, that you might as well buy collectible gold because you're basically paying the same price for the collectibles as you would for bullion.

The difference is: The mark-up on bullion is typically significantly less. It's usually 3% to 5%. It's up around 12% to 15%. The premium on collectibles is usually way higher. So collectibles premiums are around 12% to 15%, and it's usually 75% to 100%.

So there's a lot of upside, I think, in collectible gold coins — and they're available. So instead of buying bullion, that you can't get anyway, you can get these collectible gold coins for the value of their gold plus the mark-up. It's just astonishing.

https://banyanhill.s3.amazonaws.com...Podcast/2020/Landing_Pages/040920_RWE_LP.html

Now of course the problem is the exit strategy , there will be less buyers and dealers will take the coins back at spot or slightly less. So for this , you need secondary market "networks" to offload the coins. Or else , just hope for a massive rise of the rate so these coins will become bullion to you or you can sell it at the price of bullion.

In terms of the exit strategy, I think that you may have missed the point. Numismatics prices go in cycles. In bad times, the premiums on some numismatic coins get very low (so that they match bullion coins). That was his main point.

His inferred secondary point: when times are good again, the premiums of these numismatic coins go back to their normal 75% to 100% range. That is when you exit, by selling them to collectors at that normal 75% to 100% premium. So, not only do you get the increased bullion price, but you also get the huge increased numismatic premium.

It is akin to time arbitrage, instead of geographic arbitrage. Of course, if the EOTWAWKI occurs, your only interest is in the bullion value (and you have not paid any more for that, than if you had purchased bullion coins).


Yes. What you say is 100% true. However , if the rate goes very up , the "premium" is consumed very fast , so you can sell even at a lower premium or undervalued premium once situation is back to normal and you still make profit.
 

Louis IX

Pelican
redbeard said:
Premiums are still pretty ridiculous.

Goldbugs, what do you think is really driving this demand? Obviously...

-stores are closed
-quantitative easing
-stock market volatility

But overall, do you think people are waking up to the scam that is our economic system? Or are they just "looking for a hedge" because Peter Schiff told them to?

Just lack of supply for inflated premiums , and dealers want to cash in on the panic effect , for instance on one forum i saw a very serious guy who wanted to buy 35k of low-premium coins at 8%/10%. In normal time he could phone up a big dealer and ask for a discount on bulk buy and he could get around 1% if he is looking around a lot.
He is "new" to this and doesn't seem to understand that the premiums are inflated due to the unusual situation.

Already rate has gone up and will steadily go around 50EUR a gram , im not sure about the US dollar though , it might go in a different way , same for GBP and CHF.

When mints will reopen , when orders will be back like in the past , then premiums will be normal. But I fear that by that moment it will be history-high price around 53/54 EUR a gram , even more if the Eurozone will collapse. I don't believe Italy will forgive what the EU/ECB did to them.

Physical dealers also have to care about not going bankrupt , so i think they would prefer to temporarily close doors and/or raise premiums rather than facing bankruptcy and losing all their inventory at once. The very high premiums are almost a hidden signal to their good customers to wait for the storm and not buy.

They have to capitalize on the fact that there is more demand than offer at the moment. Buyback prices are sometimes way above spot , which is an indication that many professional dealers not only need more inventory but are positive that rates will go up.
 

Stats

Woodpecker
I am thinking to buy a chunk of silver. I have a reliable source that sells 10% or 20% above spot depending on the amount. you can watch them melt the bar if you want. any other way to get a better deal currently?
 
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