Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?

[barrythecyborg]

So I've just finished reading 'the big silver short' by Chris Marcus.

Highly recommended.

It essentially proves through interviews with inside players that big banks (especially JP Morgan) have been manipulating the silver market, by buying up massive amounts of physical silver, shorting the market, then flooding the market, crashing the price (at least that's how I understood it).

The interviews are from 2019, when silver was at $15+/ounce.

It also claims there are 500+ paper claims for every ounce of physical silver.

The 'smoking gun' repeatedly referred to is when the price crashed from $21 to $9, following a highly irregular midnight trade.

So... where to go from here?

Any JP Morgan big shots on the forum?))

 

[NoMoreTO]

It also claims there are 500+ paper claims for every ounce of physical silver.

That'd be a game changer. I own a product with a redeem ability, but ponzi schemes have a redeem option too.

Paper Silver is only for the ride, but real Silver is where its at.

 

[Jestx]

That'd be a game changer. I own a product with a redeem ability, but ponzi schemes have a redeem option too.

Paper Silver is only for the ride, but real Silver is where its at.

Physical is always preferred over paper, but physical gold bullion seems to have much greater long term utility as silver is more speculative in nature.

For those that can afford it, even having 5-10% of your savings/portfolio in physical gold should be required given the insanity of Central Bank policy and currency printing globally.

 

[Deepdiver]

To test the market I went to a trusted dealer to sell 4 Silver Eagles and one Sunshine mint .999 blank. I bought all from this dealer and spot silver was 24.25 oz. I was paid $25 each for the Silver Eagles and $22 for the 1oz .999 blank. Keep in mind Sunshine mint provides most of the proof blanks to the US Mint using some of the best German manufacturing tech available The US Mint recently reduced about half it's staff due to covid and can now only produce Gold Eagles or Silver Eagles but NOT both at the same time. The Mint fee is avg $3 per silver Eagles and dealer fee is $2 for five total and quite a bit more for gold eagles $80 to $100 per coin total so don't be surprised if silver Eagles become even more scarce. My dealer basically gave me back 75 cents per Silver Eagle and will flip them plus the $5 Mint Dealer fee so you know. He has overhead but $5 per eagle is 20% total commission. So keep that in mind you pay a 20% premium for USMint vs ingots or blanks. Eventually the Silver Eagles do have some numismatic value over time especially for 2020 when far fewer coins minted due to the covid panics.

 

[Deepdiver]

The truth re: JP Morgan Silver pump and dumps...

 

[fktax]

Been thinking about selling off some gold. Is now the time to sell gents?

 

[username]

I've been buying precious metals for almost 20 years now and never sold 1 ounce. I use it as an insurance policy first and investment second. I myself would probably only consider selling if gold went over $10,000/oz and silver over $100/oz. Since the money isn't needed I would then have to put it into another hedge investment against the dollar.

 

[oilbreh]

Been thinking about selling off some gold. Is now the time to sell gents?

No, the move just started.. when you have people who know nothing about monetary policy asking if they should buy is when you might sell. Anyway the demand and supply of gold is fairly stable. Any price increase is just fiat loosing value. If you are not using or money for anything in short term better off with gold.

 

[Louis IX]

Hi guys ,
I can get hold of a few coins (mostly from Europe) , i have no experience with US coins , is it worth buying 40% half dollars kennedy ( 1965-1970) ? Do they trade below spot ? In other terms should i buy them around spot price or below ? Can i base myself on Apmex prices , is it reliable ?

 

[barrythecyborg]

I was listening to a silver roundtable on YT, and one of the guys said JP Morgan and their manipulation of the silver markets had been referenced by Q...

Not sure what that changes, but still, interesting...

 

[Tactician]

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/...utures-market-trade-data-not-adding-up-670913

Quick & Interesting article. Summary would be COMEX numbers don't add up, suggesting more physical delivery of Gold & Silver is happening than reported. Two implications: 1. Short term price would be higher if correct (i.e. more) physical delivery were to be reported, and 2. Inaccurate accounting of the Gold & Silver kept in warehouses would cause a big problem if there isn't enough to go around in the case more contracts are physically settled instead of cash settled or rolled over. Like a run on a bank in previous eras.

#1 is immediate & happening now.
#2 happening is unlikely, but you still can't hold insufficient reserves. If it gets out that they're holding inefficient reserves, then that's going to cause a panic feedback loop of increasing prices & more physical settlement. They need to address this quickly.

Anyway, just a quick article I happened to read & thought to pass on. This is a weird situation, so it's possible this article or myself are in error.

 

[Arado]

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/...utures-market-trade-data-not-adding-up-670913

Quick & Interesting article. Summary would be COMEX numbers don't add up, suggesting more physical delivery of Gold & Silver is happening than reported. Two implications: 1. Short term price would be higher if correct (i.e. more) physical delivery were to be reported, and 2. Inaccurate accounting of the Gold & Silver kept in warehouses would cause a big problem if there isn't enough to go around in the case more contracts are physically settled instead of cash settled or rolled over. Like a run on a bank in previous eras.

#1 is immediate & happening now.
#2 happening is unlikely, but you still can't hold insufficient reserves. If it gets out that they're holding inefficient reserves, then that's going to cause a panic feedback loop of increasing prices & more physical settlement. They need to address this quickly.

Anyway, just a quick article I happened to read & thought to pass on. This is a weird situation, so it's possible this article or myself are in error.

Seconded - this account on twitter is posting about this every day and he says that deliveries in December will fail. If that happens, there's going to be mass chaos in the financial system. There must be someone who can speak to whether it has any legitimacy.

 

[barrythecyborg]

So where does this leave ETFs?

The price of silver goes up, and they have to settle in cash?...

Or everyone figures out that paper is just paper and they become worthless?

 

[barrythecyborg]

So where does this leave ETFs?

The price of silver goes up, and they have to settle in cash?...

Or everyone figures out that paper is just paper and they become worthless?

Actually, I answered my own question... the price goes up, and they HAVE to settle in cash...

The question is then what's the cash worth, but it'll still be more than you would've had, so...

 

[Arado]

Actually, I answered my own question... the price goes up, and they HAVE to settle in cash...

The question is then what's the cash worth, but it'll still be more than you would've had, so...

Since they've been suppressing the silver price supposedly, I'm skeptical that those asking for physical delivery will be satisfied with getting a bunch of cash. This could cause a short squeeze, the price of physical silver will skyrocket while the price of SLV and likely other paper silver and paper gold ETFs will drop due to lack of trust in the partner dealer. Not sure what the second order effects are, before speculating too much would prefer to hear expert opinion on whether there is any merit to this theory. Perhaps no one is talking about it because everyone who knows wants to hoard the metal for themselves?

 

[barrythecyborg]

Since they've been suppressing the silver price supposedly, I'm skeptical that those asking for physical delivery will be satisfied with getting a bunch of cash. This could cause a short squeeze, the price of physical silver will skyrocket while the price of SLV and likely other paper silver and paper gold ETFs will drop due to lack of trust in the partner dealer. Not sure what the second order effects are, before speculating too much would prefer to hear expert opinion on whether there is any merit to this theory. Perhaps no one is talking about it because everyone who knows wants to hoard the metal for themselves?

That's how I read it, but long term.

Short term, ETF numbers are directly tied to the price of physical silver.

They sold shares in a fund supposedly backed by physical silver. They're contractually obligated to settle in cash, physical reserves or not.

The only way you lose is if the funds themselves implode, which they could, but if your investing with big names (i.e. Blackrock) that pretty much means the whole system.

But if the game they've been playing is wait for values to rise, crash the market, horde the physical... maybe that's exactly what they've been prepping for.

 

[Arado]

That's how I read it, but long term.

Short term, ETF numbers are directly tied to the price of physical silver.

They sold shares in a fund supposedly backed by physical silver. They're contractually obligated to settle in cash, physical reserves or not.

The only way you lose is if the funds themselves implode, which they could, but if your investing with big names (i.e. Blackrock) that pretty much means the whole system.

But if the game they've been playing is wait for values to rise, crash the market, horde the physical... maybe that's exactly what they've been prepping for.

Not sure how the endgame would play out, but if there isn't enough physical to support the ETF than the prices have to eventually decouple. Some players will get very rich and some will go broke from this.

 

[Diocletian]

Other than collector's value is there any advantage to buying government coins like American Eagles, British Sovereigns, etc. over generic bars and rounds?

 

[Tactician]

Yes. There is some discussion of this a couple pages back: https://www.rooshvforum.com/threads/do-you-own-physical-gold-or-silver-or-both.766/page-25

The idea is similar to 'backwardation' or 'forwardation' in futures in that sometimes premiums are out of line & it is profitable to pick up or let go of numismatics because the premium drifted quite far away from spot gold price & you expect the premiums to be more in line later. Playing certain futures like this can be very profitable if you know what you're doing & do it with size.

In the case of physical gold, it's a little trickier that usual futures because you'd need to find buyers + there may be some regulations if you want to do this in size. Also, you can't really 'short' numismatics easily, so you can only sell ones you already have.

Anyway, if you want to do this casually, it's worth it to always pick up numismatics over generic stuff if you feel premiums are low. If premiums shoot up, you can sell them & repurchase generic gold while pocketing the difference. If premiums don't increase a lot, you didn't spend that much extra + the coins are fun to look at. Doing it this way gives you room for decent upside without much downside. If you want to do this casually, just make sure you're happy to potentially hold the gold for a long time, i.e. it's gold you'd buy anyway.

 

[redbeard]

What's the privacy situation for buying physical gold? Do stores take ID, can you pay cash?