bucky
Pelican
This an interesting post I came across on Quora. I'm pretty worried that the US will end up in a war with China or Iran, and it's difficult for me to imagine the US with few "global interests" and not meddling incessantly all over the world, but it's a nice thought. It's particularly hard to imagine US forces withdrawing from Europe, Japan, and Korea. On the other hand, I kind of see the bit about Turkey emerging as a serious world power.
Lots more to comment on here, but I'll leave it at that for now. Obviously no one knows what will happen in the future, but I'm interested to hear the thoughts of RVF members. I found it somewhat comforting that anyone, even some rando on the Internet, thinks the near future might play out something like this.
Here's the link, and I've also copied the content I'm talking about below:
Do you see a major war involving the US in the next couple of years?
No.
Over the next 5–10 years, the U.S. will unwind from all of its past wars and resign from the position of leader of the global order. To paraphrase prescient Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan, the U.S. will be a country with a global reach but few global interests.
This is what is likely to happen:
There will be many wars, disasters, and famines all across the world, but the U.S. simply will not care. I hope anti-Americans enjoy the future!
Lots more to comment on here, but I'll leave it at that for now. Obviously no one knows what will happen in the future, but I'm interested to hear the thoughts of RVF members. I found it somewhat comforting that anyone, even some rando on the Internet, thinks the near future might play out something like this.
Here's the link, and I've also copied the content I'm talking about below:
Do you see a major war involving the US in the next couple of years?
No.
Over the next 5–10 years, the U.S. will unwind from all of its past wars and resign from the position of leader of the global order. To paraphrase prescient Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan, the U.S. will be a country with a global reach but few global interests.
This is what is likely to happen:
- The entire U.S. military presence will leave Afghanistan in the next 12–18 months.
- The U.S. will withdraws its forces from the Middle East entirely in ~2 years.
- Most U.S. troops will leave Europe in less than a decade.
- At some point in the near future, the U.S. will cut a deal with North Korea and withdraw forces from the ROK.
- At the tail end of the transition process, U.S. forces will leave Japan.
- Very few countries will host U.S. troops because the U.S. simply won't care to have a huge forward deployed presence anymore.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran will fight for control of the Middle East. Regardless of who actually wins, Turkey will emerge victorious.
- Japan will further rearm and rise to become the true military power in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Japan and India will ally to box in China.
- At some point soon after the order fully ends, the Chinese system will collapse.
- Once the U.S. leaves Europe, the following will happen:
- The U.K. will become a full vassal of the United States.
- France will go its own way and reemerge as an assertive Great Power.
- Germany will rearm and be frenemies with Russia.
- Russia will start invading many countries in its west to regain strategic depth.
- The Monroe Doctrine will be fully enforced, there will be a U.S. led containment fence around the eastern hemisphere. They’ll only come in to our backyard with express American permission.
There will be many wars, disasters, and famines all across the world, but the U.S. simply will not care. I hope anti-Americans enjoy the future!
