World War III is coming.
Allies: The U.S., the Western World, India, Russia, the Shia Muslim countries, including Iran vs Axis: China and the Sunni Muslim countries.
The old arguments of countries being too interconnected economically, war is too horrible for the average person to stand, etc., are the same arguments made in earlier times. Before Pearl Harbor the exact argument that Japan and the United States were too economically tied for war was made, you can even read it in the newspapers of the time.
The idea that the technology and weapons of the current day are too deadly and war is now obsolete isn't a new idea either.
The man who invented dynamite claimed he had ended war. Nobody would be able to stomach war with dynamite because nobody had seen such a deadly weapon used before. The inventor of dynamite died before he could see his invention used in WWI and see how wrong he was.
https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/alfred-nobels-thoughts-about-war-and-peace/
I have read a multitude of studies/war game results regarding a CCP invasion of Taiwan. And the CCP tends to ultimately fail, after much death and destruction. The CCP has several options. They can be extremely patient, and wait fifty to a hundred years if necessary, for a peaceful unification, when China's political, economic and military power is just overwhelming and the writing is on the wall (I don't think they have the patience). Or they can wait 20-30 years, when their military will probably be strong enough to successfully contend with the U.S. and her allies, and conquer Taiwan (I don't think they have the patience). Lastly, they could attack Taiwan just a decade from now, with not only their current forces, but a large force of robotic attack drones (air, sea, undersea) and amphibious landing craft (they still don't have enough, but they are in a building spree), that they currently don't have, but will by then.
The problem with attacking in a decade is that they will not have the military strength they dream of, at that time. And so an invasion of Taiwan could quite possibly fail. But then I had an idea of what could tip the scales, as mad as it may sound. I could see the CCP rolling the dice, and doing a preemptive sneak attack where they use either big strategic grade nukes or "Rods of God" to hit the 4 largest cities in Taiwan. This would kill millions of people, half or more of the population, and massively damage local infrastructure, but it just might break the will of Taiwan and the western alliance, to effectively fight back. And the West will not risk a global nuclear war by striking back with nukes at China's mainland cities.
And so China's military invades a ruined apocalyptic island, and fairly quickly overcome the smashed defenses. A guerilla war of course might take years to fully put down. China would have to completely rebuild the place and even colonize it, considering the death toll, but they might prefer that, to put their personal stamp on it.
If they did such a terrible action, in the form of using weapons of mass destruction against Taiwan, but were still defeated, America and the world would need to pour massive aid into Taiwan to rebuild and rearm it. And most likely, half or more of the population would be dead, considering how many people live in the cities. At that point Taiwan would be wanting nukes of their own, as soon as possible.
If I were the current leader of Taiwan, I would make it a priority to develop a nuclear arsenal. I would diversify it with land based, air based and undersea based nuclear delivery systems. I would want at least one or two boomer subs, no matter the cost. I would want the CCP to know they would be severely hurt, if they nuked Taiwan. I would not be relying on allies for a nuclear umbrella that could be relinquished. They should follow the example of Israel, when it comes to nuclear self-defense.
Yes, there would be both political, economic and physical blowback (radiation) from the CCP doing a nuclear attack on Taiwan, but they may still decide to do it, and then let the chips land where they may, as they launch an invasion in about a decade. We will see.
