Do you see a major war involving the US in the next couple of years?

I think there will definitely be a war especially with alot of fighting in the middle east. They have been buying massive amounts of weapons for years. You don't buy stuff unless you think your going to use it. Our "allies" are no where near finished expanding their territory.
 

It_is_my_time

Hummingbird
World War III is coming.

Allies: The U.S., the Western World, India, Russia, the Shia Muslim countries, including Iran vs Axis: China and the Sunni Muslim countries.

The old arguments of countries being too interconnected economically, war is too horrible for the average person to stand, etc., are the same arguments made in earlier times. Before Pearl Harbor the exact argument that Japan and the United States were too economically tied for war was made, you can even read it in the newspapers of the time.

The idea that the technology and weapons of the current day are too deadly and war is now obsolete isn't a new idea either.

The man who invented dynamite claimed he had ended war. Nobody would be able to stomach war with dynamite because nobody had seen such a deadly weapon used before. The inventor of dynamite died before he could see his invention used in WWI and see how wrong he was.

https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/alfred-nobels-thoughts-about-war-and-peace/
Unless something major happens in the USA, as in we get someone about 3 steps to the right of 2016 campaign Trump, then the sides will be what the sides are right now...

USA, what is left of the EU/NATO, Israel, Sunni Muslims (Saudi Arabia, Al Qaeda, ISIS), and maybe India

V.

China, Shia Muslims (Iran), Russia and Syria.
 

Blade Runner

Woodpecker
STG is a believer in Xenakis's generational dynamics predictions, who has slightly different alliances. I find the middle east connections to be the most slippery, and he even admits that Iran is a back and forth player. He doesn't talk about Israel much which is also curious. The only thing I can tell for sure is that China, Pakistan and Turkey will be on the wrong side.
 

Jestx

Robin
There needs to be an understanding that wars do not just "happen" especially between major powers. The US and China have way too much to lose going by engaging in war with each other by conventional means, especially when both are dealing with chaotic domestic and economic issues.

The main issue that would cause a conventional war is the threat of the US Dollar losing its reserve currency status. The reserve currency privilege for the last 75 years since WWII is what allows the US to maintain its vast military hegemony through debt financed by US Treasuries purchased by foreigners. The actions by the Federal Reserve and Federal government to rapidly print trillions of USD in response to the pandemic are stoking fears of coming inflation (the Fed has actually already hinted they want inflation for real this time). Or even worse, hyperinflation that intentionally inflates (monetizes) away the debt issued by the US Treasury and held by China and other foreign entities.
 
The right in America is increasingly isolationist. The left only likes small wars backed up by a large international coalition where they can claim moral superiority. Minorities generally don't support American imperialism abroad. There's really no constituency who is going to buy a major war, and public opinion does still matter.

America is still going to be the preeminent power in the world for the foreseeable future. What I mean by that is we will be the only country capable of waging an offensive war anywhere on the globe. China might be capable of that in the future. Maybe Russia as well. But I suspect neither will reach that level.
No flavor of the week 3rd world country (India, Iran, Turkey) will ever be anything other than a regional power. Western Europe is finished as well. If Germany, the UK, or France kicked out the foreigners, started having kids, and put 10% of their GDP towards the military they might be great powers again. None of those things are going to happen. And there is going to be no EU military force in the near future.

The Quora guy's entire argument is based on the premise that America's huge military-industrial complex will go quietly into the night. Why? How would it happen and who would make it happen?
I expect the compromise by all sides (conservative whites, liberal whites, and minorities) will basically be Trumpism. We keep pumping money into the military, both in manpower and new weapons systems, but we don't really use it for much over the next couple of decades. It will essentially be a welfare / job training program for conservative whites and minorities (not a bad thing IMO), while the military industrial complex still makes a large profit (not ideal, but we have bigger issues). Liberal whites will look the other way on this.
 

STG

Robin
There needs to be an understanding that wars do not just "happen" especially between major powers. The US and China have way too much to lose going by engaging in war with each other by conventional means, especially when both are dealing with chaotic domestic and economic issues.
Wars come and go like the changing of the seasons. It is a part of human nature.

The cyclical nature of war is generational, which is why the average person cannot see and comprehend the cycle. The cycle turns over about 80 years so the average person only sees a part of it and not the full turning during their lifetime.

The worst kind of wars where the value of individual human life is worth nothing happen about every 80 years.

We could have easily won the Vietnam War, had we used the same tactics we used against the Japanese during WWII.

2025 is 80 years from 1945, the closer we get to 2025 statistically the higher the chance the war will occur. It is inevitable.

China's last major war was the civil war that ended in 1949.

Ecclesiastes 3:8
“A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.”
 

Lace em up

Woodpecker
Wars come and go like the changing of the seasons. It is a part of human nature.

The cyclical nature of war is generational, which is why the average person cannot see and comprehend the cycle. The cycle turns over about 80 years so the average person only sees a part of it and not the full turning during their lifetime.

The worst kind of wars where the value of individual human life is worth nothing happen about every 80 years.

We could have easily won the Vietnam War, had we used the same tactics we used against the Japanese during WWII.

2025 is 80 years from 1945, the closer we get to 2025 statistically the higher the chance the war will occur. It is inevitable.

China's last major war was the civil war that ended in 1949.

Ecclesiastes 3:8
“A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.”
Yeah but the world now has nukes. There wont/cant be a "major" war between nuclear powers without someplace getting cooked. Therefore the world will continue to have conflicts and cyber/economic war until it erupts and the world basically ends.

Theres been close calls, and thankfully, cooler heads prevailed. But during an all out war where communications and trust deteriorates, and there are major loses or one side thinks it may suffer defeat? Nah, it'll go nuclear and possibly on a large scale.



 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
Yeah but the world now has nukes. There wont/cant be a "major" war between nuclear powers without someplace getting cooked. Therefore the world will continue to have conflicts and cyber/economic war until it erupts and the world basically ends.

Theres been close calls, and thankfully, cooler heads prevailed. But during an all out war where communications and trust deteriorates, and there are major loses or one side thinks it may suffer defeat? Nah, it'll go nuclear and possibly on a large scale.



There have been many proxy wars where two competing nuclear powers back their dog in a third country of choice


If the USA remains the sole, or one of the dual hegemon(s), proxy wars and civil wars (through subversion) will be the means.

If the USA collapses, or chooses some extreme form of isolationism (like during the Great Depression of the 30s), the status quo on this globe will radically alter and many conflicts might break out
 
World War III is coming.

Allies: The U.S., the Western World, India, Russia, the Shia Muslim countries, including Iran vs Axis: China and the Sunni Muslim countries.

The old arguments of countries being too interconnected economically, war is too horrible for the average person to stand, etc., are the same arguments made in earlier times. Before Pearl Harbor the exact argument that Japan and the United States were too economically tied for war was made, you can even read it in the newspapers of the time.

The idea that the technology and weapons of the current day are too deadly and war is now obsolete isn't a new idea either.

The man who invented dynamite claimed he had ended war. Nobody would be able to stomach war with dynamite because nobody had seen such a deadly weapon used before. The inventor of dynamite died before he could see his invention used in WWI and see how wrong he was.

https://www.nobelprize.org/alfred-nobel/alfred-nobels-thoughts-about-war-and-peace/
I have read a multitude of studies/war game results regarding a CCP invasion of Taiwan. And the CCP tends to ultimately fail, after much death and destruction. The CCP has several options. They can be extremely patient, and wait fifty to a hundred years if necessary, for a peaceful unification, when China's political, economic and military power is just overwhelming and the writing is on the wall (I don't think they have the patience). Or they can wait 20-30 years, when their military will probably be strong enough to successfully contend with the U.S. and her allies, and conquer Taiwan (I don't think they have the patience). Lastly, they could attack Taiwan just a decade from now, with not only their current forces, but a large force of robotic attack drones (air, sea, undersea) and amphibious landing craft (they still don't have enough, but they are in a building spree), that they currently don't have, but will by then.

The problem with attacking in a decade is that they will not have the military strength they dream of, at that time. And so an invasion of Taiwan could quite possibly fail. But then I had an idea of what could tip the scales, as mad as it may sound. I could see the CCP rolling the dice, and doing a preemptive sneak attack where they use either big strategic grade nukes or "Rods of God" to hit the 4 largest cities in Taiwan. This would kill millions of people, half or more of the population, and massively damage local infrastructure, but it just might break the will of Taiwan and the western alliance, to effectively fight back. And the West will not risk a global nuclear war by striking back with nukes at China's mainland cities.

And so China's military invades a ruined apocalyptic island, and fairly quickly overcome the smashed defenses. A guerilla war of course might take years to fully put down. China would have to completely rebuild the place and even colonize it, considering the death toll, but they might prefer that, to put their personal stamp on it.

If they did such a terrible action, in the form of using weapons of mass destruction against Taiwan, but were still defeated, America and the world would need to pour massive aid into Taiwan to rebuild and rearm it. And most likely, half or more of the population would be dead, considering how many people live in the cities. At that point Taiwan would be wanting nukes of their own, as soon as possible.

If I were the current leader of Taiwan, I would make it a priority to develop a nuclear arsenal. I would diversify it with land based, air based and undersea based nuclear delivery systems. I would want at least one or two boomer subs, no matter the cost. I would want the CCP to know they would be severely hurt, if they nuked Taiwan. I would not be relying on allies for a nuclear umbrella that could be relinquished. They should follow the example of Israel, when it comes to nuclear self-defense.

Yes, there would be both political, economic and physical blowback (radiation) from the CCP doing a nuclear attack on Taiwan, but they may still decide to do it, and then let the chips land where they may, as they launch an invasion in about a decade. We will see.
 

La Águila Negra

Kingfisher
TPTB are definitely hyping up China. Chinese Virus. Chinese trade. Chinese persecutions. Chinese freaking mystery seeds. Chinese this and that. We're being primed for some kind of a conflict.
Don't forget the Chinese 'concentration camps' where they harvest Uyghur organs and hair. The trains, this time, go West instead of East

Next thing they'll start telling you your IKEA lampshade is made of Uyghur skin. You know what I am hinting at.

The propaganda campaign is already in full swing but at the same it will get way worse

One can only hope the American people have wisened up over the years and are starting to look through the lies and the deceit
 
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If the Dems take power they'll fly the white flag and allow China to invade without a fight. Newsom is preparing San Francisco as the first landing port.

Yikes...this was supposed to be joke. But now I honestly don't know.
 

pitbullowner

Kingfisher
There have been many proxy wars where two competing nuclear powers back their dog in a third country of choice


If the USA remains the sole, or one of the dual hegemon(s), proxy wars and civil wars (through subversion) will be the means.

If the USA collapses, or chooses some extreme form of isolationism (like during the Great Depression of the 30s), the status quo on this globe will radically alter and many conflicts might break out


I hope for the latter. Extreme isolationism.Pull all of our troops from the middle east and NATO countries. Let Russia have their way with them.Russia has been getting dicked on for far too long by our sanctions and the hatred of the MSM. Let them get a taste of victory for a little while as they pound Israeli first countries into shards of glass
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
If that big dam breaks all bets are off. The CCP is trying to deflect its internal problems with the border skirmishes and for such an event to take place would be catastrophic.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Don't forget the Chinese 'concentration camps' where they harvest Uyghur organs and hair. The trains, this time, go West instead of East

Next thing they'll start telling you your IKEA lampshade is made of Uyghur skin. You know what I am hinting at.

The propaganda campaign is already in full swing but at the same it will get way worse

One can only hope the American people have wisened up over the years and are starting to look through the lies and the deceit
Difference now is that all the U.S. corporations are in bed with China and NONE of them have been willing to go on paper and criticize them - we've all seen how the NBA is completely kissing up to them. Even at the Big Tech hearing last week, Apple, Amazon, and Google weren't willing to strongly criticize China. So this supposed anti-China campaign is completely missing the big corporations.

If there was a World War 3, other than the U.S. and China being the main antagonists, there isn't necessarily a clean team A and team B. Remember, in World War 2, Germany and Soviets initially had a non aggression pact, and Japan and the Soviets were only at war at the very end. USA didn't join till 1941. UK even sank many French ships and killed their sailors to prevent them falling into Nazi hands. Soviets and Finland had a war even though the later wasn't really a member of the Axis. In World War 1, the U.S. didn't join till the end, the Russians dropped out early, etc...
 

STG

Robin
STG, where will Xenakis be wrong, do you think?
The only flaw I see in his work is how he assumes all of America will unite when the crisis begins.

He states that when we are attacked by China, all political differences will be forgotten about and all Americans will unite to fight regardless of race, national origin, etc.

I believe, and I may be wrong, that this happened in the past because Americans were primarily of European descent. The west coast is full of leftists and foreigners. I don't see myself running to the nearest recruiting station if Seattle and Portland were attacked...

Yet I feel the rage when I hear of Boer farmers and their families in South Africa being slaughtered.
 

Blade Runner

Woodpecker
I am researching his positions and answers at his spot over there, so I'll have a better idea of what I think his particular frailties are. I think he has some good insights, but it will be very complicated. Stay tuned.
 

STG

Robin
Yeah but the world now has nukes. There wont/cant be a "major" war between nuclear powers without someplace getting cooked. Therefore the world will continue to have conflicts and cyber/economic war until it erupts and the world basically ends.

Theres been close calls, and thankfully, cooler heads prevailed. But during an all out war where communications and trust deteriorates, and there are major loses or one side thinks it may suffer defeat? Nah, it'll go nuclear and possibly on a large scale.
As I stated previously, the same argument was made by the inventor of dynamite.

Imagine what it must have been like to see dynamite arrive and then used in war for the first time.

Nuclear weapons have already been used in war. If Japan had nuclear weapons would they have used them? I think so.

The reason they haven't been used since is because the people who were alive to personally witness and experience the horror of nuclear weapons were all traumatized as a generation. This generation was then able to compromise politically, get things done, run a country and budget, and fight wars with strict rules of engagement. All of this was because they were literally forged by the suffering and horrors of the Great Depression and WWII. How many of the generation that survived WWII are still around? Those people had real experiences and memories of suffering. To us its just black and white pictures of another world.

Why do you think politics are as divisive as they are today, the country and rule of law seems to be collapsing, nothing gets done and the debt problems get worse? Because the people who ran things before clown world are all gone.

Ever see a child take over a parent's business and run it into the ground? Pretty much the same thing.
 
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