Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Easy_C

Peacock
Paywall, wonky site says I've used up my free articles but never even been to the site...
Odd.

I didn’t have that experience.

Here’s a source Im familiar with and know does not have shenanigans to read. Write in question that’s the same as yours.

 

uncledick

Woodpecker
Catholic
It's tough I understand how you feel you're not alone brother, I'm in a similiar boat I'm not hurting for anything at all but I also don't work my tail off just to blow it on the price of gas and food, much less the crazy price of a flight anywhere right now. I'm not trying to sound like some saint humanitarian but it's other people I worry about, some people just have normal jobs and families how do they manage when the cost of things have doubled and tripled? I've worked hard in my life, kept my nose clean and done well but am I supposed to just not worry when it cost me $120 to fill up my gas tank the other day? I don't want to go and do things or even drive my nice car because it makes me feel dumb and wasteful, and you do notice it people do look at you very spiteful and it's hard to fault them for it. It simply feels irresponsible right now, shameful what they have done to our lives...

Where western economies are headed, i would suggest that anyone well to do financially be as modest and humble as possible in the coming years. Hard times brings out envy, hard times also makes people more desperate. I have some nice material things, but they remain strictly within my house. A joyride in a nice vehicle, strolling through a park with a thousand dollar watch, leaving a fancy toy like a new snowmobile or quad out in the driveway are all recipes for possible future thief and violence.

Remember, when economies go to waste, the elites will always find a way out and above the fray. That leaves the upper middle class or low level millionaires as the punching bags for what the elites themselves caused.

Im noticing it already with my slightly above average yearly income at 100k cdn (80k usd), some of my working class neighbors (their wages in 40k levels) have been commenting negatively about my well maintained 7 year old RV and how life must be easy for me and so forth, i can tell by their comments and body language that envy and jealousy is ramping up in people that would of never thought of such things in the past. But when people can't put decent meals on their tables consistently, while working full time, i can't blame them. I just try to redirect their negative feelings towards the corruption at the very top of our systems.

Life is getting hard, and it will bring out the worst in even good people, and i'd much rather have those worst tendencies directed towards (((those))) that actually caused their misery as opposed to the sequel to bolshevism: subtitled: we got away with it again!
 
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FrancisK

Pelican
Catholic
Gold Member
Where western economies are headed, i would suggest that anyone well to do financially be as modest and humble as possible in the coming years. Hard times brings out envy, hard times also makes people more desperate. I have some nice material things, but they remain strictly within my house. A joyride in a nice vehicle, strolling through a park with a thousand dollar watch, leaving a fancy toy like a new snowmobile or quad out in the driveway are all recipes for possible future thief and violence.

Remember, when economies go to waste, the elites will always find a way out and above the fray. That leaves the upper middle class or low level millionaires as the punching bags for what the elites themselves caused.

Im noticing it already with my slightly above average yearly income at 100k cdn (80k usd), some of my working class neighbors (their wages in 40k levels) have been commenting negatively about my well maintained 7 year old RV and how life must be easy for me and so forth, i can tell by their comments and body language that envy and jealousy is ramping up in people that would of never thought of such things in the past. But when people can't put decent meals on their tables consistently, while working full time, i can't blame them. I just try to redirect their negative feelings towards the corruption at the very top of our systems.

Life is getting hard, and it will bring out the worst in even good people.


Agreed 100%

I've been daily driving an exotic car for the past couple months as my old truck I am restoring is having some finishes touches done and it's taking an extremely long time, I don't weld and it needed some welding done.

When I got this exotic car last October I got to somewhat enjoy it for a few weeks before the weather turned and it was pretty much all positive reactions to it on the street, I would say 90/10, I had one bad experience but that was my fault as I was dumb enough to take it to a hipster loser area which I will never do again. That has done a complete reverse over the past couple months, it's now 10/90 the other way. I get lots of dirty looks, I get people yelling things at me, cutting me off for no reason, riding my bumper for no reason, flipping me off, insults I can hear with the top down....all for no reason at all just because I'm driving the car. The other day driving through my own neighborhood slowly, as i always do because it's my neighborhood full of kids and families, with the top down heading home a couple of punks outside said "nice car dumbass" as I drove by. I'm usually not a hot head at all but this was after driving it around and everyone messing with me already, I did a 180 turned around and asked "why am I a f'n dumbass please tell me". They completely denied it and got scared but I did feel like dumbass after doing that though and Im considering just getting rid of the car now, it's lost all of its fun the past couple months just because how people treat me in it. I just want to drive my fun car I don't care one bit about attention or showing off, i don't drive like a jackass or try to race people even though they all try to race me, i mind my own business. i almost feel burdened now driving it where just 8 months ago I was so happy every time I got in it and it's not because I'm bored of the car that's for sure, I love it I've always wanted one but I didn't want all of this with it.
 

MartyMcFly

Ostrich
Other Christian
Agreed 100%

I've been daily driving an exotic car for the past couple months as my old truck I am restoring is having some finishes touches done and it's taking an extremely long time, I don't weld and it needed some welding done.

When I got this exotic car last October I got to somewhat enjoy it for a few weeks before the weather turned and it was pretty much all positive reactions to it on the street, I would say 90/10, I had one bad experience but that was my fault as I was dumb enough to take it to a hipster loser area which I will never do again. That has done a complete reverse over the past couple months, it's now 10/90 the other way. I get lots of dirty looks, I get people yelling things at me, cutting me off for no reason, riding my bumper for no reason, flipping me off, insults I can hear with the top down....all for no reason at all just because I'm driving the car. The other day driving through my own neighborhood slowly, as i always do because it's my neighborhood full of kids and families, with the top down heading home a couple of punks outside said "nice car dumbass" as I drove by. I'm usually not a hot head at all but this was after driving it around and everyone messing with me already, I did a 180 turned around and asked "why am I a f'n dumbass please tell me". They completely denied it and got scared but I did feel like dumbass after doing that though and Im considering just getting rid of the car now, it's lost all of its fun the past couple months just because how people treat me in it. I just want to drive my fun car I don't care one bit about attention or showing off, i don't drive like a jackass or try to race people even though they all try to race me, i mind my own business. i almost feel burdened now driving it where just 8 months ago I was so happy every time I got in it and it's not because I'm bored of the car that's for sure, I love it I've always wanted one but I didn't want all of this with it.
Drive the car you like. The people that complain or insult you suck and you should feel happy that you are bringing bitterness into their sad lives. If someone flips you off, either smile and give a thumbs up if you can't stop to ask why, or ask the person why he/she is so angry. This will likely make the person feel angrier because it brings knowledge that he/she was being a jerk (but few will immediately admit this and apologize due to pride). I would find it funny and it might even bring me some joy knowing I am upsetting such people. These people lose value in my mind and I think of them as minor enemies.

It was good you confronted the people because these people are rarely confronted, even in a soft way such as questioning their words. For many people, a couple of times being confronted will get them to stop randomly insulting people. I can see some risk though because a few people will just shoot or stab you because there are more people with mental problems these days.

I also think it depends on the area you live though. High crime areas with a lot of violent people would be riskier to deal with and having such a nice car there could be asking for theft or vandalism.
 

DanielH

Ostrich
Moderator
Orthodox
No offense, but if things get more dicey "do whatever you like" is not good advice. Driving too nice a car is a common way for the American glowies to get themselves made when operating overseas.
Agreed, the times of playing around are coming to an end. I'm seeing even very wealthy people by any measurement become extremely upset that their lifestyles have to be changed, what will that look like when a dad working two jobs suddenly isn't even making enough money to adequately feed his family? At that point, it hardly matters what race or background people have, they may go savage and lash out at anyone with any amount of wealth. In today's world, this is currently happening in Sri Lanka, where politicians have been beaten and stripped and humiliated on the streets. The French Revolution and various communist revolutions are other good examples of what our future may be. When that happens, you don't want to be flashing your wealth, and besides, it's good for your soul to not do that.
 

jordypip23

Ostrich
Gold Member
Agreed, the times of playing around are coming to an end. I'm seeing even very wealthy people by any measurement become extremely upset that their lifestyles have to be changed, what will that look like when a dad working two jobs suddenly isn't even making enough money to adequately feed his family? At that point, it hardly matters what race or background people have, they may go savage and lash out at anyone with any amount of wealth. In today's world, this is currently happening in Sri Lanka, where politicians have been beaten and stripped and humiliated on the streets. The French Revolution and various communist revolutions are other good examples of what our future may be. When that happens, you don't want to be flashing your wealth, and besides, it's good for your soul to not do that.
I'm not aware of the politics in Sri Lanka. If the nation is so damn broke and there are food riots, could it consider selling itself out to India and just get swallowed up as new Indian territory? I mean, India is supposedly a rising superpower with tons of resources. Anyone more familiar with Sri Lanka's history? Guess I have some reading to do.
 

DanielH

Ostrich
Moderator
Orthodox
I'm not aware of the politics in Sri Lanka. If the nation is so damn broke and there are food riots, could it consider selling itself out to India and just get swallowed up as new Indian territory? I mean, India is supposedly a rising superpower with tons of resources. Anyone more familiar with Sri Lanka's history? Guess I have some reading to do.
This is something I brought up recently. In globalist laissez faire times, nations can more easily get away with being small and independent. With free trade, they can import what they need and either focus on one or two major exports or else become a tourist destination or tax haven.

Now as we're approaching the end of free trade with a new era of embargoes, scarcity, and protectionism, it will become harder and harder for a small nation to maintain its sovereignty. They will become absorbed, by varying degrees, by larger countries who won't hesitate to expand their empire. This was actually a plot point of the Fallout video game series where Canada was annexed by the US and much of East Asia was annexed by China because of resource scarcity.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
I guess the locals in Russia though will have the least exposure to inflation of any country in the world, due to the Ruble being at a 5-yr high vs the US$ and stronger still vs the Euro...

Turns out sanctions actually saved the Russian domestic civil aerospace industry, as I have mentioned a couple of months ago.



Russian aircraft manufacturers will receive the largest order for civil aircraft in history. The United Aircraft Corporation (part of Rostec) will soon receive the largest ever order for the production of civil aircraft. Aeroflot, the flag carrier and the largest airline in Russia, plans to order 300 new aircraft from local manufacturer United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Russian-based media reported.

This is going to create tens of thousands of high-paying jobs in Russia (when you consider the supply chain and high multiplier effect of that industry). As well Russia will now be able to compete for the international market with Boeing and Airbus. The decision of Russia to produce its own advanced high-bypass turbofan passenjer jet engines, the PD-14, is paying off bigly. Without that crucial component, they could not sustain an independent sanctions-proof domestic civil aviation industry.



Russia can flex its resource muscle and throw in a wheat or oil bundle with passenger jets as a vital export package to potential clients, though they already are pretty competitive with the duopoly, provided the Ruble doesn't keep appreciating too much. So look for their central bank to keep the Ruble in its current $40-$60 range. Too strong a currency would be counterproductive, favoring imports over domestic industrial production. Too weak a currency is not good either, but that ship has already sailed, it's no longer a problem for the Ruble.

I predict that Russia will sell hundreds more of this passenger jet to clients in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
 
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pureblood

Sparrow
Orthodox
I've also notice these current events; social decline, theft, inflation, plus an ever increasing low trust society. How are these high gas prices influencing the socioeconomic "wage slave" in our society? Well, you might think it would decrease the amount of driving on city streets and over bridges. Especially, limiting any joy driving or car racing. However, the phenomenon called drifting or illegal street racing is on the rise in Portland, Oregon.
Burnside Bridge
street racing.jpg

I started to ask myself, how is this affordable? Driving at accelerated speeds, burning off tires, unnecessary wear on engine parts and components. Well, after investigating I discovered the following; if gasoline is expensive you just steal it.
Currently happening in the Portland metro area is the theft of gasoline, not only at the pumps but outside residence homes. If you park on the street your vehicle is now a target for free gas. Many folks say, "you can’t stay awake all night and watch your car; the police can’t do it either." Currently, gas theft is NOT targeting the upper class or those who park in a secure garage but targeting the lower working class who park on the street. Also, after this theft occurs, get ready to pay a $500-$800 dollar repair because the thieves are drilling holes into gas tanks.
unknown.png

Furthermore, the Portland metro area has decided not to enforce vehicle registration, valid tags, or proof of insurance. This was easily verifiable by simply walking around downtown and counting the vehicles parked with expired registration, tags, and some without a license plate. Again, is this a policy issue, enforcement, or an ideology? The chart below represents the number of violations noted by Oregon State Police over the last several years.

ORS 803.455 specifically refers to failure to renew, and ORS 803.560 refer to improper display
e4b70b9f-10e6-410f-a9a4-c456a560de4c_1920x1080.jpg

So, if I understand correctly the Portland police bureau is no longer targeting "criminal" behavior? As one spokes person said. "we have asked them to focus their efforts on “dangerous driving behaviors.” The semantics of these words and definitions makes one believe there either is a hidden agenda, a lack of representative government, or both.

1655151569420.png

Anyways, I'll keep watching and listening to the burning of rubber, the smell of gasoline, and the endless amount of unregistered vehicles using the public roads, bridges, and parking lots in Portland, Oregon.

Maybe there truly, truly, truly is a method to all this madness....unnamed (2).gif
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Orthodox
Reading through this thread it looks like Russia and China have been preparing for these events for some time and are reacting quickly.

Meanwhile all our governments that are penetrated by Klaus Schwab, who is obsessed with how we might deal with every situation, are slow and seem to have little up their sleeve.

If you put it all together, I'd guess they must have a trump card that they hope will take out Russia, China etc. too. They can head to their NZ bunkers when the crash hits and come out when a few billion have perished.

Any ideas of cards they could play in such a scenario?
Chaos and death.
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Orthodox
With the gas prices on the rise, you Americans are getting a glimpse of what it’s like living in EU. Inflated gas prices that you’re paying now are still lower than normal uninflated gas prices in EU
We drive way more than Europeans per capita (we don't have a choice due to city planning) so it's not an equal analogy. America is built and is sustained by cheap gas while Europe is not. Your cities can survive on expensive gas longer than we can. The road to $10/gallon gas will lead to intense suffering in the USA.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
We drive way more than Europeans per capita (we don't have a choice due to city planning) so it's not an equal analogy. America is built and is sustained by cheap gas while Europe is not. Your cities can survive on expensive gas longer than we can. The road to $10/gallon gas will lead to intense suffering in the USA.
This is true.... But not until after the elections cycle are over. I would predict things to turn significantly worse in an accelerated manor come Nov if dems win.

I'm a logistics manager for a major oil and gas company and i can say that the profit the oil companies are seeing is being largely eaten up by operational costs associated with our own trucking.

It's a direct result of admin policies to hurt gasoline for the green agenda among other nefarious reasons.
 

Belgrano

Ostrich
Gold Member
Dmitry Medvedev on his Telegram channel:

FVQFrt-WQAEx0jP
 

Belgrano

Ostrich
Gold Member

Corporate ‘Self-Sanctioning’ of Russia Has US Fearing Economic Blowback


Officials seek to clarify guidance so there aren’t unintended impacts on inflation, supply chains

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine galvanized the US, UK and European Union to unleash a slew of sanctions meant to punish Vladimir Putin’s government and pressure him to pull his forces back.

But some Biden administration officials are now privately expressing concern that rather than dissuading the Kremlin as intended, the penalties are instead exacerbating inflation, worsening food insecurity and punishing ordinary Russians more than Putin or his allies.

Officials were initially impressed by the willingness of companies from BP Plc. to McDonald’s Corp. to abruptly “self-sanction,” sometimes selling assets at fire-sale prices. But the administration was caught off-guard by the potential knock-on effects -- from supply chain bottlenecks to uninsurable grain exports -- due to the companies’ decisions to leave, according to people familiar with internal discussions.

In some cases, companies have signaled that they are being extra-cautious or want clearer guidance from the US before continuing business with Russia. Until that happens, they are going beyond any legal requirements to ensure they don’t accidentally violate sanctions policies
, according to Justine Walker, the head of global sanctions and risk at the Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, an industry group.

“Because we just have so many changes at once, governments are not able to step in and give precise clarification and we are seeing many, many examples of authorities coming to different positions,” Walker said in an interview. “Companies ask, ‘Should we be applying sanctions to this entity?’ and the government will come back and say, ‘You need to make your own decision.’”

In an acknowledgment of that concern, on May 25 the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, which oversees sanctions regimes, extended a general license so that companies could continue to pay taxes, fees and import duties related to doing business in Russia until Sept. 30. The message was clear: Doing business in Russia is allowed, provided companies aren’t working with sanctioned entities.

In addition, a recent Executive Order barring management consulting and accounting companies from doing business with Russia didn’t include anything on agriculture, medicine or telecommunications, an intentional move to let that business activity continue, according to Adam Smith, a former senior adviser to OFAC.

The concessions and adjustments highlight the difficulties involved in sanctioning the world’s 11th-largest economy. Previous sanctions campaigns against countries such as Iran and North Korea sought to impose a similar level of isolation on much smaller economies. Russia’s ties to the global commodities markets -- particularly energy and grains -- has made this a much more complicated case.

There’s no sign that administration officials feel their sanctions policy was a mistake or that they want to dial back the pressure. If anything, officials have said a key US goal is to ensure Russia can’t do to other nations what it has done in Ukraine.

But the collateral damage from the sanctions has been wider than expected.

When the invasion began, the Biden administration believed that if penalties exempted food and energy, the impact on inflation at home would be minimal. Since then, energy and food have become key drivers of the highest US inflation rates in 40 years, a huge political liability for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party heading into November’s mid-term elections.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that she "was wrong" in believing last year that inflationary pressures would pass. One of the results that she's now seeing is related to the spike in prices due to unexpected self-sanctioning, according to one person familiar with her thinking.


So while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has urged US businesses to cease operations in Russia, telling a joint session of Congress that the Russian market was “flooded with our blood,’’ the Biden administration has been encouraging some commerce, including for agriculture, medicine and telecommunications. For instance, the US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to people familiar with the efforts, as sanctions fears have led to a sharp drop in supplies, pressuring food costs.

That follows warnings from the United Nations and humanitarian groups that hunger and poverty may soar if the price of staples like wheat stay high. Turmoil triggered by rising food and energy prices has already hit countries including Sri Lanka, Egypt, Tunisia and Peru.

The Biden administration rejects any suggestion that sanctions are part of the problem, emphasizing that the US isn’t penalizing humanitarian goods or food, and putting the blame on Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine, including by targeting shipping on the Black Sea.

“The story that the sanctions are causing the problem, I think, is deeply misleading,” Ambassador Jim O’Brien, head of the State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, told reporters last week. “Sometimes companies are confused about what’s allowed and what’s not, and we will try to clarify so that they are able to go forward. But we are also working proactively by trying to inform companies about what they are allowed to do.”

About 1,000 companies have so far announced that they are curtailing operations in Russia, according to data collected by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. That underscores one reason sanctions are so popular with policy makers: They essentially outsource US policy to the private sector, which makes it less surgical, less calibrated and less responsive to policy changes, said Smith, the former OFAC adviser.

This becomes important as all sides seek an end to the war. The lifting of sanctions can be dangled as an incentive to help bring about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. But right now it’s hard even to offer that as a potential benefit of entering into negotiations because much of the pullout by American businesses has been self-inflicted. Companies could face public blowback if they are seen as rushing back into the Russian market.

Smith also said that longer-term, the US may undercut its “soft power” in Russia by abandoning the local market to brands from other countries — or even to Russian firms that are snapping up company assets at little or no cost.

The departure of high-profile US firms ``does some psychological harm to Russia, psychological injury,’’ Smith said. But “at the end of the day, is removing elements of US soft power where the US wants to be?”​

Amazing article. We are being ruled by complete idiots.
 
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